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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 092002
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
202 PM MDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday night...

Satellite imagery and analysis indicated unstable NW flow across
our region with associated weak short wave energy. Isolated to
scattered showers were noted developing over our central
zones...but cloud cover has limited stability thus far and showers
were not to robust yet at mid afternoon. Areas of recent snow
cover from Forsyth to Sheridan and Powder River County also seem
to be inhibiting convection at this time.

NW flow will prevail across our region through the short term
forecast period. Weak short wave energy within the flow will
provide some lift and combine with mid level lapse rates in the
5-7 C/KM range to produce some isolated to scattered showers over
the area the rest of the day into the evening. Some of this will
dissipate after dark while some lingers from the Big Horns to the
southeast portion of the CWA overnight. A rumble of thunder (<5%
chance) is possible with some of this activity, and maybe some
small hail or graupel locally if we get some breaks of sunshine to
help destabilize things. A few cells may produce around a tenth
of an inch of rainfall (probability < 5% on plains and up to 15%
over mountains), but most will likely be insignificant. As a
matter of fact, due to aforementioned snow fields and cloud cover,
we have undercut guidance PoPs. Wind in the foothills (Gusts
30-50 mph) will back off somewhat overnight, but may remain
elevated in the gap locations (Livingston, Nye, Harlowton, Big
Timber).

For Wednesday...Another day of brisk northwest winds as
short wave continues to track across the high plains in northwest
flow. The strongest winds will transition to our eastern sections
by afternoon where gusts 30-45 mph are likely. Winds in the west
will let up a bit in the afternoon dropping to 15-25 mph. Despite
some weak lift over the area, the lower levels will be a little
drier without much CAPE. So any showers will be weaker without any
threat of thunder/lightning and confined mainly to the eastern
sections of the CWA. Look for any showers to dissipate by
Wednesday evening with decreasing wind as well.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Highs Wednesday
will be a bit cooler than Tuesdays with readings in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night will be in the lower 30s west to
mid 20s east. BT

Thursday through Tuesday...

Ridging over the region will keep conditions dry on Thursday and
temperatures above normal through the weekend. On Friday, the
ridge is expected to begin to break down ahead of a low off the
west coast. Combined with afternoon instability and incoming
Pacific moisture, there will be daily chances (10-30%) of
afternoon showers and potentially a thunderstorm or two.

For Monday, the low is expected to have moved over the four
corners before heading towards the Great Plains on Tuesday.
Additionally, a trough over western Canada is expected to drop
into the region during this time, bringing a period of unsettled,
cooler weather. Currently, there is a 30-50% chance of
precipitation over the plains and a 50-70% chance over the
mountains, although the exact timing is still uncertain.

High temps Thursday will be in the mid 50s to low 60s, increasing
to the 70s for Friday through the weekend. Then, temps will
decrease as the pattern becomes more unsettled, dropping back to
the mid 50s to low 60s by Tuesday. Archer

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated showers are expected into tonight with isolated embedded
thunder possible in the evening. Localized brief MVFR conditions
may under any rain showers. Mountain obscurations should be
expected. Elevated W/NW winds will continue near K1KM and K3HT
(Harlowton area), and K6S0 through 05Z, gusting at 25-40 kts. BT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/053 031/063 040/075 047/075 045/073 047/070 043/058
    21/B    00/B    02/R    23/R    22/R    34/R    55/R
LVM 033/052 031/062 042/071 044/070 043/070 042/065 038/055
    31/B    00/B    12/R    23/R    23/R    35/R    56/O
HDN 035/053 028/062 037/076 042/077 042/075 044/072 041/060
    32/W    00/U    01/U    23/R    22/R    34/R    55/R
MLS 038/052 027/057 036/075 044/075 044/074 046/072 044/059
    22/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    21/U    22/R    34/R
4BQ 036/048 027/057 035/074 044/076 044/075 046/072 042/058
    22/W    00/U    00/U    01/U    21/U    22/R    34/R
BHK 035/048 026/054 032/072 043/074 043/072 044/069 041/058
    13/W    00/U    00/U    11/U    11/U    22/R    34/R
SHR 030/048 025/060 033/074 042/074 040/072 042/069 039/057
    21/N    00/U    00/U    12/R    22/R    34/R    55/R

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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