Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 212030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Hydro/Marine

Issued at 329 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

The glimpse of sunshine seen this afternoon will quickly give way
to more clouds through the remainder of the weekend. Rain chances
will increase as a system slides to our south east on Sunday.
Despite slightly cooler air moving in for the beginning of next
week, temperatures will remain above normal. Winter finally makes
a return for the later half next week with temperature back into
the 30s and the possibility for light snow.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 329 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

The main concern in the short term will be fog tonight. We then
look forward to additional precipitation chances beginning late
Sunday into Monday.

Once today`s clouds and fog eroded over the southern half of the
area, temperatures responded quite well, rising into the upper 50s
and lower 60s. Those through central Michigan have not been quite
so lucky with low clouds and fog has held its own along a slow
moving boundary.

This boundary will play a role in weather as we head into tonight
and Sunday, as it begins to slowly return south and east as a
weak cold front. Fog is likely to develop once again, become
dense. As a result, a dense fog advisory will extend through
tonight and into Sunday.

A storm system passes well to our south and east, but this
aforementioned boundary may provide enough lift to result in
showers late Sunday into Monday. With temperatures well above
normal, much of it should be rain. Cooler air then moves in early
next week and while some guidance likes to suggest that we mix
with snow late Monday into Tuesday morning, vertical profiles are
not too impressive to support this idea. Anything that mixes in
will not amount to much, if anything.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

Sfc low tracks across Lower Michigan on Tuesday night and Wednesday
with primarily rain across much of the forecast area, although there
will be a transition to snow on the back side of the low Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Cold air returns for Thursday with a period
of west flow lake effect snow showers, especially Thursday night
into Friday morning as trough moves through and inversion heights

Another trough or weak clipper arrives for Saturday and this could
bring light synoptic snows as well as increase the lake effect snow


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

Conditions are improving this afternoon as low clouds and fogs mix
out with IFR and LIFR improving to VFR from north to south.
Conditions will go back down to IFR and LIFR later tonight and
into Sunday morning.


Issued at 329 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

Areas of fog will develop tonight with some limited visibility
through Sunday morning. Fog will gradually lift through early
Sunday in the nearshore and by early afternoon over open waters.

Waves are generally expected to be 1-2 feet on a southerly wind
through the rest of today. Winds turn out of the north ranging
10-20 knots late Sunday. Wave heights push near 3 feet over the
southern end of the lake. That`s about the best we will do. No
real concerns exist for marine interests.


Issued at 329 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

While the initial flood wave on the Grand River has moved through
Robinson Township...a second rise in river levels is currently
working through Ionia and Lowell and will cause rises at Comstock
Park...Grand Rapids...and Robinson Township over the next few days.
Current thought is that this next rise will remain below flood stage
at the forecast points.

Rises continue on tributaries to the Grand...such as the Thornapple
at Hastings and Caledonia...Looking Glass at Eagle...and the Maple
River at Maple Rapids.  While some of this additional water will
travel through dams...this will keep levels on the Grand elevated
through at least the middle of next week.

Rainfall from the storm system Sunday night into Monday looks to be
less than one quarter inch for most locations.  While most of that
may end up as runoff...minimal impacts are expected from that event.
Another system will affect the region late Tuesday into Wednesday...
which will bring a colder airmass into the region.


MI...Dense Fog Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday
     for MIZ050-056>059-064>067-071>074.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for MIZ037>040-043>046-



LONG TERM...Ostuno
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