Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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185
FXUS63 KGRR 042028
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

NO BIG STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...INCLUDING TONIGHT AND AGAIN
ON SATURDAY MORNING. A CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME WIDESPREAD SNOW
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

ONLY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH.

FOR TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN SFC RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PUT AN END TO ANY CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRINGS FAIR WEATHER FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
TROUGH ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS NORTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT A COUPLE INCHES ACCUMULATION NORTH OF
MUSKEGON BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LONG TERM WILL TAKE A TURN FOR THE COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY SPREADING LIGHT SNOW AS
IT MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SUNDAY/MONDAY. H8 TEMPS AROUND -4C
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SUGGEST THAT LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE MINIMAL
AND MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE SYNOPTIC BUT SHOULD GET A GOOD
KICK FROM THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A OMEGA BULLSEYE IN THE DGZ MONDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL FROM THIS CLIPPER AND THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE AFFECTED SIGNIFICANTLY.

COLD AIR WILL FLOW IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WE/LL HAVE A GOOD SETUP FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW. H8 TEMPS -17C
TO -19C WILL CREATE HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE LAKE. INVERSION
HEIGHTS WILL BE CRASHING DURING THIS TIME BUT STILL LOOK HIGH ENOUGH
TO ENABLE ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
THURSDAY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S,
OTHERWISE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING WHEN DRIER AIR MOVES IN. LOOK FOR
MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEK... ESPECIALLY IN LOWLAND AREAS
NEAR RIVERS. SOME RIVERS MAY EXCEED BANKFULL DUE TO SNOW MELT AND
PRECIPITATION FROM THE LAST STORM. TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF ONE TO
AROUND ONE AND A HALF INCHES FELL. RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR SYCAMORE CREEK AT HOLT... FLAT RIVER AT SMYRNA... ROGUE
RIVER AT ROCKFORD... MAPLE RIVER AT MAPLE RAPIDS AND GRAND RIVER AT
IONIA.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...OSTUNO



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