Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRR 151121
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
721 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN TODAY. FAIR WEATHER WILL RETURN
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN ATTM
WILL BE EXPANDING AND MOVING SOUTH TODAY AS UPPER DIVERGENCE
PRECEDES PASSAGE OF 500 MB TROUGH AXIS AND SFC COLD FRONT. RAIN
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH STORM TOTAL QPF EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A
QUARTER INCH. HEIGHT RISES FOLLOW TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
EAST WITH SFC RIDGING BUILDING IN SO WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING BY
MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION WILL START OUT RATHER QUIET...AND WILL BECOME
A BIT UNSETTLED TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

THE ONLY ITEM OF NOTE THROUGH THU NIGHT WILL BE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NE ON WED NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY THU. WE WILL SEE A FAIRLY ROBUST UPPER TROUGH SLIP BY JUST TO
OUR NE AT THAT TIME. THIS WILL TRY TO DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA. WE WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL
NE FLOW WILL TRY TO ADVECT COOLER AIR IN ACROSS THE STATE.

WE WILL SEE A WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA THEN LATE INTO THIS WEEK AND
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TREND HAS BEEN
FOR LESS ENERGY TO MOVE OUT OF THE WRN STORM AND LIFT NE INTO
CANADA. WE WILL SEE AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
EVENTUALLY GET FLATTENED OUT WITH JET ENERGY PLOWING INTO IT. AS
THIS IS HAPPENING...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA
WITH A NICE FLOW OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE GULF. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY LAY OUT ALONG THE NEARLY ZONAL PATTERN AND
STALL OUT.

WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN IF THIS FRONT STALLS
OUT NEAR THE AREA. IT IS NOT A GIVEN THAT IT WILL STALL OUT...AND IT
COULD BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THROUGH A LITTLE QUICKER. EITHER
WAY...THE BEST CHCS OF RAIN LOOK TO BE CENTERED AROUND SAT WITH
WARMER AIR. TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY COOL OFF LATE IN THE PERIOD OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING IN THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE
TONIGHT AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN
NORTHWEST TONIGHT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN BLO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

WILL DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT 5 AM AS WINDS AND WAVES ARE
DECREASING...WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

NO HYDRO ISSUES.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.