Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 300359
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1158 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
WEDNESDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN
NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY... AFTER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK AND WARM TO AROUND NORMAL ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST OF THE CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WEAK WAVES WILL BE FLOWING MOSTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING UP
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON TUESDAY AS A
WAVE COMES THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD ENHANCE THE
INSTABILITY. EVEN THEN... SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LIGHTNING... SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

PLEASANT SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE AND DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE 50S. THAT MEANS HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE
RELATIVE TO SUMMER NORMS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER
TROUGH AND A SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THAT COMBINATION USUALLY
RESULTS IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND AFTERNOON CU AND MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHTS. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
UPWELLING OVER THE NEAR SHORE...SO WATER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CHILLY OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WAVES WILL BE LOW
DUE TO WEAK WINDS UNDER THE HIGH.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO PRIMARILY
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FROM LATE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL COME IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STRONGEST STORMS
WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL... BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS... LIGHTNING AND
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL AND COULD IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BUT WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WE COULD SEE 2 TO 3 FOOT WAVES ON
LAKE MICHIGAN... AS NORTH FLOW PICKS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING WAVES BELOW 2 FEET WITH LIMITED CONCERNS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD ADVISORIES REMAIN AT SOME POINTS IN THE GRAND
AND KALAMAZOO RIVER BASINS. RIVER LEVELS AT MOST LOCATIONS ARE
FALLING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... BUT BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE RATHER LOW AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE LARGER RIVERS. NO
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...63
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...LAURENS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...63


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