Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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000
FXUS63 KGRR 282352
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
652 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CHANGE TO AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET LATE TONIGHT... RESULTING IN SLICK TRAVEL IN SPOTS. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT DRIZZLE BY
NOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SNOW HAS BEEN UNDER-PERFORMING TODAY
DUE LARGELY TO VERY DRY AIR BELOW 600 MB SHOWN ON THE 12Z DTX AND
APX RAOBS. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH COMING THROUGH TONIGHT SUPPORTING MORE INTERMITTENT LIGHT SNOW
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER HAVE BACKED DOWN ON TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND WILL FCST GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.

PERHAPS THE MORE IMPACTFUL ISSUE TONIGHT IS THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET POTENTIAL WHICH DEVELOPS TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS WARM AIR
SURGES IN ALOFT. THE COMBINATION OF A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW FOLLOWED
BY A LIGHT GLAZE LATE WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S TONIGHT COULD CREATE
SOME SLICK TRAVEL.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPARTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY
LEAVING MAINLY JUST A LIGHT DRIZZLE THREAT FROM SHALLOW STRATUS DECK
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FOG THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO
WIND SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR MORE.

CHALLENGE ON SUNDAY IS HOW WARM IT GETS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS MODELS SHOW 10C AIR AT H8 ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF GRR TO REACH WELL INTO
THE 50S BUT HAVE PLAYED IT CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW WITH HIGHS 50 TO 55.
ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT DUE TO LIMITED/SHALLOW
MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK OR SO SHAPING UP WITH FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SNOWFALL AND A PATTERN THAT SHOULD BRING A WEEK OF MOSTLY NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. COLDER AIR LOOKS TO REMAIN THROUGH THE END
OF THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES
BEING HINTED AT AFTER THAT.

ONLY REAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM APPEAR TO COME
MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL NEAR THE LAKE
SHORE...AND POSSIBLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSING OF A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY SLIGHTLY ON THE TRACK OF THE THURSDAY NIGHT
SYSTEM. ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH IN
RECENT RUNS...WITH THE GFS MOVING MORE IN LINE WITH THE FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK OF THE FIM AND THE EUROPEAN MODEL SLOWLY TRENDING THAT
WAY AS WELL. SHOULD THE SOUTHERN TREND OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUE...MOST
IF NOT ALL OF LOWER MICHIGAN WOULD MISS OUT ON PRECIP FROM THIS LATE
WEEK SYSTEM. THIS WOULD LEAVE OUR NEXT SHOT FOR MORE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION COMING SOMETIME MID NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

IN THIS SET OF TAFS...WENT WITH A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC TONE IN
REGARD TO CEILINGS. FEEL WE ARE LOOKING AT A GOOD AMOUNT OF MVFR
CEILINGS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE
AREA.

ALSO...AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 10Z. THE
PRECIP WILL LIKELY START OUT AS SOME LIGHT SNOW AND THEN MIX WITH
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER TIME. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY...BUT ENOUGH TO POTENTIALLY BRING A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER MUCH OF SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
TONIGHT/S MIXED PRECIPITATION.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.
GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 2O KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

ALL RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE RECEDING. WITH HIGH FLOWS FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR COMBINED WITH LACK OF PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES BELOW 20
DEGREES...NO ICE FORMATION OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IS EXPECTED FOR SOME
TIME. ALSO...WITH A LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NEXT WEEK OR SO...RIVERS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL FLOWS HEADING INTO
DECEMBER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...MACZKO
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...HOVING
MARINE...MEADE






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