010
FXUS64 KHUN 092315
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
615 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

The main frontal boundary is still lagging behind all the
convection that pushed southeast of the area into central Alabama
and Georgia earlier this morning. Some low level cumulus has
formed, but looks fairly stable. Nashville`s 7 AM sounding
should be fairly representative of the airmass just ahead of that
front. There is a very potent cap in place between 700 700 mb and
around 900 mb. This is likely very representative of the
atmosphere over northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee at
this time. Given expected highs this afternoon, think we would be
hard pressed or any convection to overcome that cap. 7 AM BMX
sounding looks a bit more impressive, but given how far south this
convection has been pushed and water vapor imagery, thinking that
even Cullman county is represented by the KOHX sounding more so
than the BMX sounding. Therefore, not expecting much redevelopment
along the front as it pushes southeast this afternoon into
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

However, there may be wind for very low (20 to 30 percent) chances
of shower and thunderstorm development south of the Tennessee
River tonight (mainly in the evening), as this front pushes
through the area. Particularly, in Franklin southeast into
Cullman counties in Alabama. Not seeing much helicity forecast by
models, but moderate to high CAPE values (1000 to 2500 J/KG) and
steep lapse rates (6.5 to 8.0 degrees/km) are forecast by most
models with decent DCAPE around 1000 J/KG. So a severe
thunderstorm or two producing damaging winds or large hail cannot
be ruled out. Not expecting any watches due to mainly isolated
coverage of thunderstorm activity expected.

Some cloud cover is expected this evening with this activity
before cloud should dissipate. Clear skies and light winds are
expected and should enable lows to drop into the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Expect some patchy fog could occur with decent
radiational cooling late.

A need dry and quiet weather pattern establishes itself Friday
through the weekend. Some cooler buy very pleasant conditions are
expected on Friday and Saturday. Highs will drop a bit into the
mid to upper 70s  with lows dropping into the upper 40s and 50s.

Sunday looks a bit warmer, as upper level ridging builds back over
the Tennessee Valley. Highs should climb back to around 80
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A partially closed upr low in the West CONUS will be ejected
eastward as heights begin to fall in the northern Rockies from
late Sunday night into Monday. Moisture advection/ascent ahead of
the pending upr trough could begin to bring rain to the area as
early as Monday morning. Instability will increase gradually on
Monday, but forecast thermal profiles just appear marginally
unstable at this time, limiting updraft strength and severe
potential. This trough may become partially closed again as it
makes its way eastward across the OH/TN Valley regions, with
chances for showers/thunderstorms continuing into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A cold front is currently moving thru the area, with additional
shra/tsra developing south of Cullman Co. This new convection
should remain south of the two main terminals, with VFR conds
prevailing well into Fri. NW winds near 7kt will also become
light/var late this evening, before turning NNW around 10kt with
higher gusts Fri morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...09