339
FXUS65 KPUB 182320
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
520 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few strong/severe storms possible this afternoon over the
  plains.

- Strong to severe storms possible once again over the far
  eastern plains tomorrow afternoon.

- Warm, dry, and windy for Monday, with isolated thunderstorms
  favoring the higher terrain and far eastern plains.

- Better chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through
  Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Currently...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were located in the Pikes Peak
region and extended southwest into Fremont county. Another line of
convection was noted over the central mtns. Shear was quite
favorable over the I-25 corridor with the stout SE winds in place
over the mid level westerlies, but CAPE values were running about
500 J/kg. Some weak rotation was noted with the cells up in far
northern El Paso county.

Rest of today into tonight...

Main concern for stronger storms in the short term will generally be
north of Pueblo to Springfield CO line. Best CAPE will be over Kiowa
county later this afternoon into the evening hours and overall best
chance of a severe storm getting going will be over Kiowa county
region, later this evening. Activity is likely to clear all of the
region by the mid to late evening hours.

Otherwise, anticipate clear skies later tonight with mid temps
around 50F tomorrow morning plains, 40s valleys and 30 and 40s mtns.

Tomorrow...

Main forcing tomorrow will move across the region relatively early,
and likewise the best chance for stronger storms will be over the
far eastern plains during the mid afternoon (2-4 pm) time frame. SPC
currently has slight risk up the the KS/CO border and cannot argue
with this. Over the remainder of the region a few high based storms
will be possible with the main concern being some gusty winds.
Otherwise it will be quite warm tomorrow as breezy west to southwest
surface winds will be in place, and with downslope in place, it will
get warm. Expect highs around 90F along the KS border with mid to
upper 80s over the rest of the plains. winds will be in the 15-20
mph range with G25-35kt, with stronger winds in the mtns.

The only fire weather zone with fuels favorable for critical fire
behavior is zone 225 (Southern Mtns), however min RH values will
only be at around 15% so no fire wx high lights anticipated at this
time. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

Sunday night through Monday...Upper trough of low pressure over the
Pacific NW will begin to strengthen and push east into the Rocky Mt
region, increasing southwest flow aloft across the Four Corners and
CO. This will provide for a very mild night Sunday night and warming
temps on Monday, but increasing mid and high level moisture will
mean an increase in cloud cover through the day from the west as
well as isolated to scattered convection initiating over the higher
terrain by midday Mon. In addition, though dry downsloping air will
push east across the plains during the afternoon, models are
indicating some low level moisture seeping back into the far eastern
plains during the morning. This should provide the fuel for isolated
storm development during the afternoon for a few hours before the
dry air overcomes. As for fire weather concerns, weather parameters
are there for portions of the forecast area but latest fuels info
indicates green up underway so no firewx highlights at this time. As
for temps, plan on highs Mon in the 70s for the high valleys and mid
70s to mid 80s for the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Upper trough crosses the Rocky Mt region
Tue, bringing a quick 1 to 3 inches of new snow to the central mts
as well as slightly cooler temps and shower chances to the plains
thanks to a midday cold front. All of the higher terrain will likely
see some light snow, but the central mts and the Pikes Peak region
will see the most since the positions of this upper system will
favor the northern half of the state. Plan on scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the eastern plains Tue afternoon and
evening, then lingering llvl moisture sparking isolated convection
again on Wed. Both days will be slightly cooler, with highs in the
60s for the high valleys, and upper 60s to upper 70s for the plains.

Thursday through Saturday...Long range models indicate that another
Pacific low pressure system will gather strength Thu, then push
across the Rockies Fri and Sat. There is some disagreement on how
far south this system will dip, with the extended procedure
currently siding with a more northern track which will keep the
forecast area under dry and warm west to southwest flow with just
some isolated convection possibilities. Plan on highs all three days
in the mid 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and mid 70s to
mid 80s for the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024

At KCOS and KPUB, will carry vcts until 02z at both sites, and
would expect brief periods of strong and erratic outflow winds
gusting to 40 kts at times. Storms then end after 02z with VFR
conditions overnight and through the day Sun. S-SW winds will
strengthen Sun after 18z, with some gusts over 20 kts at KCOS
through the afternoon. At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs. SW winds
will diminish this evening, the reappear 17z-18z Sun, with
gusts to 25 kts.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN