Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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423 FXUS65 KPUB 082128 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 328 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and wetter weather appearing likely Thursday into the weekend. - Accumulating snow across the higher terrain is also appearing likely, with the highest snowfall amounts and impacts expected across the peaks. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 327 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 Overall, relatively quiet across southern this afternoon with partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions in place for most areas. West northwest flow situated across the central mountains is assisting with some expansive cloud cover this afternoon, though lacking deeper moisture has limited any snow development. This will continue to be the case for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, especially as the upper trough sags to the south and flow becomes more baggy. Surface trough situated across southeast plains is supporting some spotty stronger winds/gusts this afternoon and along with some lower RH values, am still seeing at least spotty critical fire weather conditions. Given these conditions in place and the higher likelihood for them to continue over the next couple of hours, have opted to leave the Red Flag Warning in effect. As the upper trough sags south later this evening into tonight, will see a cold front move south through much of the Colorado. Initially, no real impacts look to occur. However, increases in moisture along veering flow will support a return to moist/upslope flow and increases in isentropic ascent will support expanding cloud cover and increases in precip. Precip chances will really increase Thursday morning into the afternoon time frame and initially for areas over and near the mountains. During the day on Thursday, snow will be likely across the mountains and with rain expected over the lower elevations. Amounts and impacts from the snow across the mountains do look to be low through Thursday afternoon, and have not issued any winter headlines at this time. With some weak instability expected to be in place, can`t rule out some rumbles of thunder over the higher terrain. By late in the period, will begin to see the precip really blossom, as the upper trough/low continues to draw near. In this cloud cover and precip, temps are expected to be well below average on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 327 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024 Recent trends with guidance today is suggesting that portions of south central Colorado, especially over and near the higher terrain, could see a period of steady light to at time moderate precip from Thursday night into Friday. With the upper low to the west, will see deep southerly flow situated across southern Colorado. Increases in large scale ascent, deep moist/upslope flow, and continued isentropic ascent look to really focus precip development into our area during this time. Have increased pops, qpf, and snow to account for these trends. Rainfall rates don`t look to be overly concerning at this time given lower instability, even with any thunderstorm development. Most locations across south central Colorado will likely see this rain result in amounts of one half inch to around an inch. For the higher terrain, highest snowfall amounts look to be primarily for the higher peaks of the mountains and with this expectation, think impacts will be low. That being said, am getting a little concerned that snow levels could lower more than currently forecast and if so, amounts and impacts could be higher. This will definitely need to be monitored, along with the need for winter headlines. Should see a trend for additional precip development to focus more across the higher terrain, especially the Continental Divide, later Friday into Friday night. This will be in response to this upper low moving more to the south. For the remainder of the weekend into early next week, should see this upper low slowly shift to the east with precip chances likely returning. Coverage of precip looks to be lower, and once again, likely focused over the higher terrain. The risk of any strong to severe storms does look to be low at this time, however, increases in moisture and instability could support a higher risk on Saturday, especially as this system moves through. A trend towards more normal temps is expected into early next week, along with periodic precip chances. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1101 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for KALS and KPUB, and mostly for KCOS, throughout the forecast period. Winds will be mainly influenced synoptically due to troughing over the region, and could be rather gusty out of the W-NW for all terminals this afternoon. FROPA will occur at KCOS around 20Z and at KPUB around 23Z, although this may occur a little sooner, in which winds will switch to a NE`ly direction at both terminals. There will be some increasing lower decks for all sites towards the end of the forecast period at KCOS and KPUB, and will likely become MVFR criteria at KCOS sometime after 10Z with lower CIGs and BR, remaining that way throughout the rest of the forecast period. At KPUB, CIGs will come down to MVFR criteria after 13Z. -Stewey && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224-232- 233. && $$ SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...EHR/RODRIGUEZ AVIATION...STEWARD