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000
FXUS65 KREV 092056
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
156 PM PDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm and dry weather will prevail through the middle of the week
with slight chances of afternoon showers and isolated storms on
Thursday. A low pressure system will provide periods of gusty winds,
rain and mountain snow, and cooler temperatures Friday and over the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Today`s beautiful spring day has been brought to you by eastern
Pacific ridging, providing sunny skies and seasonably warm
temperatures across the Sierra and western Nevada. As the upper
ridge amplifies with eastward progression, temperatures will
continue to climb through Thursday and become 10-15 degrees above
seasonal averages. Highs in the 60s and 70s will be common through
the work week with some of the lowest western Nevada valleys
flirting with the 80 degree mark. In fact, Reno has a 40-50% chance
of seeing its first 80F day of 2024 on Thursday! Otherwise, winds
will be light, albeit occasionally breezy in the afternoon, through
Wednesday before increasing Thursday afternoon ahead of our next
spring storm. Additionally, there`ll be a 15-25% chance of late
day showers across NW Lassen County and Mono into Mineral counties
on Thursday with a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...

Enjoy the pleasant weather while it lasts as a progressive synoptic
regime will transition to a cooler, unsettled pattern late this week
and over the weekend. A compact, upper low will dig southward along
and offshore the West Coast at the end of the week before ejecting
across the interior West early next week. These systems are
notoriously tricky to forecast as variations in the storm`s
evolution can impact timing and location of attendant impacts
(i.e. gusty winds, precipitation, and temperatures). For example,
the 12z suite of ensembles depict a similar trajectory of the
upper low but the GEFS has a slower progression compared to the EC
ensemble and as such some precip timing differences arise. While
this does create some uncertainty on the fine details, there is
sufficient confidence in the return of periods of gusty winds,
rain and mountain snow, and cooler temperatures beginning in
earnest on Friday and lasting through the weekend.

Given the more southerly trajectory, a bulk of the mountain snowfall
will favor the Sierra crest of Alpine and Mono counties where
blended guidance gives a 20-40% chance of receiving 6" or more
over a 72-hour period (Fri-Sun). Meanwhile, the Sierra crest
around and north of the Tahoe Basin only have a 10-20% chance of
the same threshold. Snow levels begin quite high (above 8,000 ft.)
and fall as low as 5,000 ft. by Sunday morning. As such, lower
elevations of western Nevada will mainly see rain on the order of
several hundredths to perhaps a couple of tenths. The caveat will
be the potential for afternoon thunderstorms (15-20%) which may
produce locally greater rainfall totals, especially Friday
afternoon. Friday-Saturday will also feature the strongest winds
when ridgetop gusts likely exceed 60-80 mph while valley winds
reach 30-40 mph. Periods of showers and gusty winds will persist
through Sunday before drying out for the beginning of next week.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread VFR conditions amid light winds will prevail through the
remainder of the day and Wednesday as high pressure builds
overhead. Chances of showers increase Thursday afternoon for KMMH
to 15-20% with a 10-15% chance of thunderstorms within 10 miles of
the KMMH terminal. Increased W-SW breezes are also expected
Thursday afternoon for all area terminals. Flight conditions will
deteriorate further Friday and over the weekend as a low pressure
system moves across the region.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$