Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 031128 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR ALL AREAS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND HOT TEMPS. AFTERNOON BREEZES
TO NEAR 20KTS WILL IMPACT THE STATE BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY SUNSET.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LITTLE WARMER TODAY IN MOST PLACES AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SOAR 3
TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. BY FRIDAY NEW MEXICO WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TEXAS...DRAWING A MONSOON-LIKE PLUME OF MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF MEXICO. STORMS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT MAY MOISTEN UP THE EASTERN PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK...TIMING AND DEPTH OF
WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SOME AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SPIKE AS THE MONSOON-
LIKE MOISTURE ARRIVES FRIDAY WITH READINGS AROUND 1 INCH POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN POSSIBLY REACHING OVER 1 INCH ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE SUNDAY
MONDAY PWAT INCREASE DEPENDS ON THE ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND ALSO ON
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE BLANCA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
REACHING NM. THE GFS IS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING
BLANCAS MOISTURE NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD THAN THE ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN MODEL. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
BOTTOM OUT A FEW TO 9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY IF THE FRONT AND
REMNANT HURRICANE MOISTURE ARRIVE AS PROGGED.

WHILE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS MOISTEN UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DRIER AIR MAY MOVE OVER NW AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LOW EXITING EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR RH RECOVERIES THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM ARE AN INDICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE DRY INTRUSION OVER
THE DESERT SW. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP TODAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST INCHES CLOSER TO NM. SINGLE
DIGIT RH AND HIGH HAINES WILL BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY FOR JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER COMPONENTS INTERSECT ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40 AND EAST OF I-25 HOWEVER FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL IS LIMITED.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF POOR RECOVERIES IS ON TAP TONIGHT FOR MOST AREAS
ALONG WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH AND HIGH HAINES FOR THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER CENTRAL TX.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGHER HUMIDITY...CLOUD COVER...LOW HAINES...
DETERIORATING VENTILATION...AND SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS FRIDAY AS
THE DOOR OPENS TO SEVERAL WAVES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING NORTH
FROM OLD MEXICO. MID AND UPPER LEVEL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ANDRES
WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY. THIS DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. A
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS THEN INDICATED BY GUIDANCE TO SAG INTO
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ONE SUBTLE ITEM TO NOTE THROUGH THIS GENERALLY WET PERIOD IS THAT
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION ZONE
BETWEEN WET AND DRY STORM ACTIVITY TO EXIST IN THAT AREA.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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