Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 140955
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY RICH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND THIS
WILL...FOR THE MOST PART...BE AROUND AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD MORE STRONGLY OVER OR
NEARER NEW MEXICO. AT LEAST 2 MORE BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS WILL MAKE
IT ACROSS EAST AND AT LEAST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...SO WE STILL HAVE AT LEAST 4 DAYS TO
GET MOST...PREFERABLY ALL...LOCALES A HALFWAY DECENT DRINK OF
WATER BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER OR VERY NEAR
THE STATE AND REALLY STABILIZES...DRIES AND FURTHER WARMS THE
ATMOSPHERE...GREATLY REDUCING STORM COVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A NUMBER OF TWEAKS...MORE MINOR THAN MODERATE...MADE TO MOST OF
THE FCST GRIDS ACROSS MOST OF THE NEXT 6 PERIODS. SOME OF THE
BIGGER ISSUES TO WRESTLE WITH WILL BE JUST WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL FALL...TIMING OF THE BACK DOOR FRONTS/MOISTURE
RECHARGES...HOW MUCH EACH DAY/S CONVECTION WILL IMPACT OR CHANGE
THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF MID AND UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
DISTURBANCES AND HENCE THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS TODAY BRINGS A LITTLE LESS FOCUSED AN AREA OF
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT PWATS ARE QUITE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF
FCST AREA...SO DECIDED TO ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO ALL
SCATTERED OR GREATER COVERAGE POPS AREAS. LAST BACK DOOR PUSH
LOOKS TO COME INTO AND ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF N AND CENTRAL NM
BETWEEN

MODELS ARE STILL PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH A TREND TO DRIER AND
WARMER WEATHER BY AND OVER THE COMING WEEKEND AS THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO A MONSTROUS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALOFT...WHICH WILL WARM...DRY AND STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE INDICATED TO BE
TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH ON THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS FOR GOOD
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...SO THERE IS STILL SOME HOPE THAT AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE REALIZED FOR PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WETTING RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRYING AND A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERS MOST
AREAS EXCEPT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU.

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES AND AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE AS THE PATTERN
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT REGULAR INTRUSIONS
OF MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS.
SOUNDINGS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CURRENT SATELLITE PRODUCTS
INDICATE THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GREATER THAN ONE INCH
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH HIGHER VALUES OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IN
THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR FRONT ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THROUGH MOST OF THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT...
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH A FOCUS
AREAS ACROSS THE WEST AND WELL AS THE CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND
ADJACENT EAST SLOPES AND HIGHLANDS.

MODERATE GAP WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL USHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND WESTERN ZONES. ADDITIONALLY...THE SURFACE HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. YET ANOTHER FRONT SURGES
INTO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVER THE STATE IN NORTHWEST FLOW. THUS...WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY....WITH MOSTLY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL
SUPPORT LOCAL FLOODING...AND BURN SCARS WILL BE PARTICULARLY
SUSCEPTIBLE.

BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND
WITH INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE
NORTHWEST...DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN THERE. RECYCLING
OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WETTING RAIN...THOUGH A
DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED.  HIGH HAINES VALUES OF 5 TO
POSSIBLY 6 WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. MORE DRYING WILL
STEADILY DECREASE CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE AREA
OF HIGH HAINES STEADILY INCREASES AND MIN RH VALUES STEADILY
DECREASE AS WELL.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS...AND EVEN SHORT-LIVED IFR LIKELY
WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. TERMINALS MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KSAF...KLVS AND KTCC. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PROVIDE A WIND SHIFT AT KLVS AND KTCC TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AND MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  66  91  68 /  20  30  30  30
DULCE...........................  86  53  82  55 /  30  40  50  40
CUBA............................  84  54  82  56 /  50  40  60  60
GALLUP..........................  84  59  85  61 /  30  30  50  30
EL MORRO........................  82  53  81  55 /  60  40  50  40
GRANTS..........................  85  55  85  57 /  40  40  50  50
QUEMADO.........................  81  54  83  56 /  50  40  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  88  56  87  58 /  30  40  50  30
CHAMA...........................  80  49  76  51 /  50  50  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  56  82  58 /  40  50  40  60
PECOS...........................  78  54  78  56 /  60  60  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  79  50  80  52 /  50  50  50  50
RED RIVER.......................  71  45  69  47 /  60  60  60  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  73  46  74  48 /  60  60  60  60
TAOS............................  83  51  82  53 /  40  40  50  50
MORA............................  78  51  77  53 /  60  60  50  70
ESPANOLA........................  87  58  86  60 /  40  40  30  40
SANTA FE........................  82  55  82  59 /  40  50  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  58  85  61 /  40  40  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  86  63  86  63 /  30  40  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  68  89  68 /  30  40  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  90  66  90  66 /  30  40  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  90  64  89  66 /  30  40  30  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  90  66  92  66 /  30  30  30  40
RIO RANCHO......................  88  65  88  67 /  30  40  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  92  67  92  67 /  40  30  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  59  84  59 /  40  50  50  50
TIJERAS.........................  85  61  86  61 /  50  50  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  83  58  83  58 /  60  60  50  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  82  57  81  57 /  60  60  40  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  83  59  83  59 /  50  60  40  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  85  64  86  64 /  40  50  30  40
RUIDOSO.........................  80  56  80  56 /  60  50  40  40
CAPULIN.........................  79  53  79  55 /  60  60  40  50
RATON...........................  82  55  82  57 /  60  60  50  60
SPRINGER........................  83  55  81  57 /  60  60  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  80  53  79  58 /  60  60  50  60
CLAYTON.........................  86  59  82  61 /  50  40  40  50
ROY.............................  85  58  80  60 /  50  60  40  50
CONCHAS.........................  88  62  88  64 /  50  40  30  50
SANTA ROSA......................  89  64  87  64 /  50  50  30  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  92  64  87  66 /  50  30  30  50
CLOVIS..........................  91  64  84  64 /  30  30  30  30
PORTALES........................  92  65  86  65 /  20  20  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  66  88  66 /  30  30  20  40
ROSWELL.........................  95  68  93  68 /  10  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  85  64  87  64 /  20  30  20  40
ELK.............................  81  61  83  61 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43







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