Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 020944
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
344 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING
THE STATE FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EAST WINDS FINALLY STARTING TO LOSE THEIR GRIP ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER
LOW OVER CENTRAL CA IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
ALL MODELS BRING THIS FEATURE SLOWLY E-SEWD TODAY AND
TUESDAY...HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD T-STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN NM TODAY AND ACROSS MOST MTN RANGES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GETS INTO THE ACT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HELPING TO GET SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNEDSAY
BUT MODELS SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EWD ENOUGH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO ALLOW FOR BETTER INSTABILITY AND LIKELY SOME AFTERNOON CU
BUILDUPS AND POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA OR SPRINKLES OVER THE NRN MTS.
ECMWF HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS FOR THURSDAY.
BOTH MODELS BRING UP LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH
THURSDAY MORNING. SFC WIND ORIENTATION FAVORS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AREAS EWD THURSDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL BE MAINLY WET WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
PROGGING PWATS OF 0.65"+

INCREASING SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR FRIDAY. THE INCREASING SW WINDS
SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRIDAY WITH PWATS DROPPING TO
NEAR A QUARTER OF AN INCH. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD TO NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF NM SATURDAY. GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCT
INSTABILITY SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN AND NRN NM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED LOW...FORECAST TO BE OVER COLORADO
SUNDAY. WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
DROP SEWD THROUGH NM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE AND SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTH.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
ROUNDS OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ALTHOUGH WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL WETTING FOOTPRINT AND GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE
NORMAL AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
EAST OVER THE STATE AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY GOING INTO MID WEEK AND BE EXCELLENT AREAWIDE
BY THURSDAY. A DRYLINE MAY FOCUS STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY...WITH HOT...DRY AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE FRIDAY AS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY. A REPEAT IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW BY SUNDAY AS WINDS
DECREASE A BIT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION DROPS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AS
LOW LEVEL EAST TO WEST GRADIENT SUBSIDES. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING FOR MT OBSCURATIONS IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND LCL
VSBYS IN BR THRU 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW TO
INCH CLOSE ENOUGH TO NM BY 03/00Z TO HELP INITIATE ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  36  70  41 /  10  10  10   0
DULCE...........................  58  29  67  30 /  30  20  30   5
CUBA............................  56  32  64  34 /  20  20  30  10
GALLUP..........................  59  31  68  37 /  30  30  10   0
EL MORRO........................  54  29  62  34 /  40  40  30   0
GRANTS..........................  57  31  66  35 /  40  30  30   0
QUEMADO.........................  58  30  65  35 /  30  20  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  70  38  77  41 /  10   0   5   0
CHAMA...........................  50  27  59  29 /  40  20  40   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  53  36  60  38 /  30  20  30  10
PECOS...........................  55  34  61  35 /  20  10  40  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  28  59  29 /  40  20  40   5
RED RIVER.......................  42  25  46  26 /  50  20  50  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  47  20  51  19 /  50  10  50  20
TAOS............................  54  28  60  27 /  20  10  30   5
MORA............................  50  30  55  32 /  20  20  50  10
ESPANOLA........................  60  37  67  39 /  10  10  20   5
SANTA FE........................  54  37  61  38 /  20  20  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  37  65  38 /  20  20  20   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  43  69  43 /  20  20  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  44  70  45 /  10  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  40  72  41 /  10  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  43  71  45 /  10  20  10   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  38  71  39 /  10  20  10   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  42  72  44 /  10  20  10   5
SOCORRO.........................  65  44  73  46 /  10   5  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  39  62  40 /  20  20  30   5
TIJERAS.........................  57  36  64  37 /  20  20  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  31  64  32 /  20  10  20   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  35  61  36 /  20  10  30   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  38  65  40 /  20   5  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  64  40  71  43 /  10   0  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  57  37  64  39 /  20   5  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  51  31  56  33 /  20  10  20   5
RATON...........................  57  29  61  31 /  20  20  20   5
SPRINGER........................  58  31  63  32 /  20   5  20   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  32  61  33 /  20  10  30   5
CLAYTON.........................  59  37  65  39 /   5   0  10   5
ROY.............................  56  35  62  35 /  10   5  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  63  42  69  41 /   5   0  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  42  68  41 /   5   0  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  39  72  40 /   5   0  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  62  41  70  42 /   5   0  10   5
PORTALES........................  63  42  71  43 /   0   0  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  63  42  70  43 /   0   0  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  43  78  46 /   0   0   5   5
PICACHO.........................  62  39  72  43 /  10   0  10   5
ELK.............................  58  37  68  41 /  20   0  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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