Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 230605
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1105 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
EXPANDED POPS IN THE NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL A BIT FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERALL AS 130KT PLUS JET
STREAKS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERED ADDING THE
LAS VEGAS AND SPRINGER AREAS TO HIGH WIND WARNING BUT ENDED UP
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.
UPDATED ZFP HAS BEEN TRANSMITTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1100 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014...
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SOME LATE THIS EVE AND
OVERNIGHT...TO THE GREATEST DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MTS AS WELL AS ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST. IN THESE AREAS ESPECIALLY GUSTS MAY REACH
45 TO NEARLY 60 KT IN LOCALIZED INSTANCES TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN VALLEY AND
EASTERN PLAINS LOCATIONS MORE SO DURING DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF
35 TO 45 KT. A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NW AND N CENTRAL
MTS AND CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL MT OBSCURATIONS POSS.
WINDS TO DIMINISH LOWER TERRAIN SUNDAY EVE...LESS SO ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...
THEN SPREAD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS
FORECAST ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING WINDS AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT TOTALS LIKELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER WEST AND
NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND PEAKS. BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN
TREND UP RAPIDLY AND BE ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WARMING CONTINUES TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IS GOING TO COME TO AN ABRUPT END THOUGH...WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TOMORROW. IN THE MEAN-TIME...
INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE JET STREAM AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO NEW
MEXICO...RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S. STRONG WINDS ALOFT
OVERNIGHT WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MODELS ARE
INDICATING A NEAR-CLASSIC SCENARIO FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WITH
HIGH WINDS LIKELY CRASHING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT PLACES LIKE CLINES
CORNERS...THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND PORTIONS
OF THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. THE CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL ADD A FEW SOUTHEAST ZONES
TO THE ADVISORY BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND ASSOCIATED MOS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT LATE MONDAY...BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WINDS ARE THE LEAD WEATHER STORY HERE...BUT THAT IS NOT TO DISMISS
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. OUR SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE
DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...BUT TWO-DAY TOTALS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUSAS AND SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE. TAOS MAY PICK UP AN
INCH...BUT CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW BELOW 8000 FEET ARE SLIM
AS THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY AN OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED EVENT FAVORING
HIGHER WEST AND NORTHWEST-FACING SLOPES.

WINDS WILL FINALLY SLACK-OFF ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST MORNING OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
TRENDING FROM BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL AS AN EXTREMELY DRY
AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE STATE WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS
AND WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT. INCREASING ZONAL FLOW FORECAST BY
FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS (AS EARLY AS THURSDAY). NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT
LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST 10 DAYS AWAY PER THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST OF TWO VIGOROUS BUT RATHER
DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH NM
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE SECOND MOVING TROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
EVENING...REACHING HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SANDIA/MANZANO AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY ABOUT MID EVENING. ELSEWHERE...STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING THE LATE EVENING. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL SURFACE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY.

COLDER AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IN WESTERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING AND DURING THE DAY EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOWS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE TUSAS...NORTHERN JEMEZ/SAN PEDRO PEAKS AND
THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES.

SECOND SHORT-WAVE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG WINDS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT UNDER DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY TUESDAY...VENTILATION RATES WILL
DECREASE INTO THE FAIR TO GOOD RANGE MOST AREAS. VENT RATES
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
ASSOCIATED WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. GFS
INDICATING THAT A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY SLIDE THROUGH NM
WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POOR VENT RATES
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL SLIGHTLY. VENTILATION RATES DECREASE
THANKSGIVING DAY AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WARM WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
MOVING OVERHEAD. GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR ZONAL/WLY
FLOW ALOFT BLACK FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING WINDS AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY EQUATE TO IMPROVING
VENTILATION RATES FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ502-504>508-511-512-522-524-527>529-533-539-540.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-518>520-525-535>538.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$






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