Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 012123
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS
YESTERDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST AT KTCC DUE
TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE AXIS OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS MAY BLOW MORE
OUT OF THE SE THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  52  92  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  43  87  45  88 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  48  87  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  49  88  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  48  84  48  82 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  50  87  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  50  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  53  92  54  90 /   0   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  41  82  42  82 /   0   0   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  84  57  85 /   0   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  53  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  83  49  84 /   0   5   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  44  74  46  74 /   0   5   5  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  42  78  42  79 /   0   5   5   5
TAOS............................  44  86  46  87 /   0   5   0   5
MORA............................  49  83  51  85 /   0   5   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  54  91  54  91 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  55  86  56  85 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  52  89  54  89 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  60  90  61  91 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  92  64  92 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  93  61  94 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  93  63  95 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  92  59  92 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  61  93  62  95 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  62  96  63  96 /   0   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  89  58  90 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  56  89  57  89 /   0   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  88  50  87 /   0   5   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  86  56  86 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  88  58  87 /   0   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  91  61  89 /   0   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  55  85  56  84 /   0   5   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  50  84  56  89 /   5   5   5  10
RATON...........................  50  89  52  92 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  51  89  53  93 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  87  53  88 /   0   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  58  88  62  95 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  55  86  58  91 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  62  92  64  95 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  92  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  95  66  99 /   0   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  62  94  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  63  95  65  95 /   0   5   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  96  65  94 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  64  99  67  97 /   0   5   0   5
PICACHO.........................  61  92  61  90 /   0   5   0   5
ELK.............................  59  87  59  86 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40





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