Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 281008
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 AM AKDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TASTE OF FALL IN THE INTERIOR AND A TASTE OF WINTER IN THE
BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE. LATEST MODEL RUNS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH BOTH THE SHORT TERM AND THE MID TERM. DIFFERENCES
BECOME LARGE IN THE LONG RANGE AS FAR AS POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE.

ALOFT...A 500 HPA A 510 DAM LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 78 NORTH AND 165
WEST ANCHORS A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA THURSDAY AND WESTERN ALASKA
THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
INTERIOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR FRIDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY EVENING AS THE ANCHORING LOW
MOVES TO NEAR 74 NORTH AND 155 WEST.

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER BARROW
AND STRETCHING SOUTHWEST THE BERING STRAIT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND
EAST TO BE LOCATED ALONG A PABR TO PAUN LINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND ALONG A PABR TO PAMC LINE FRIDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND WILL BE ALONG A PASC TO PAFA
LINE FRIDAY EVENING. NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NORTHWEST ALASKA
SATURDAY EVENING.

ARCTIC COAST...FIRST FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG A BARROW TO
PAVL LINE IS BRINGING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS WITH IT
HOWEVER OPEN WATER WILL MITIGATE TEMPERATURE DROP ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM
AROUND -4 TO -8 BY THIS EVENING AND DROP TO AROUND -10 BY FRIDAY
MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE INLAND AWAY
FROM WARMING INFLUENCE OF COASTAL WATERS. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY ABOVE 1500 FEET WILL
DROP TO VALLEY...PLAINS LEVEL THURSDAY NIGHT IN AND NEAR THE
WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED. RAIN
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND RAIN
ALONG THE FRONT. COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWS THE FRONT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS SKIES
SCATTER OUT FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER 30S INLAND...WITH FROST LIKELY IN VALLEYS.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
MANIFEST AS SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. COLD AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY...CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING PROVIDING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO DROP INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR FAIRBANKS AND SOUTH
WITH 20S EXPECTED NORTH OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FROST HEADLINE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR FAIRBANKS AREA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL WAX AND WANE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...HOWEVER HIGH SURF NOT EXPECTED AS WINDS ARE NOT STRONG
ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH TO BE AN ISSUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADDITIONAL WETTING RAINS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
COMBINED WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND SUBSEQUENT MELTING IS
NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC AUG 14


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