Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 241307

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
507 AM AKDT SUN JUL 24 2016


A broad trough extending from the Mackenzie River delta to the
southwest Alaska interior will gradually fracture by Monday
as an upper low center over the southwest interior splits off
and moves to south of the Alaska Peninsula. The northern portion
of the trough will weaken into a light west to northwest flow
north of the Brooks Range with weak ridging building from the
northern Bering Sea southeastward across the Alaska interior to
the northwestern panhandle. Weak ridging will persist over most
of the northern mainland through Tuesday and over the eastern
mainland through Wednesday. Another cold trough will likely dig
southward southward into the Chukchi Sea and the northern Bering
Sea by late Wednesday night, with a colder cyclonic circulation
expanding over most of northern Alaska except the southeastern and
eastern interior by late Thursday night. This trend is indicated
by both the operational GFS/ECMWF runs and the GEFS/ECMWF ensemble

A 1022 mb high centered 500 nm north of Prudhoe Bay will weaken
to a 1016 mb high 100 nm north of the Mackenzie River delta by
Monday afternoon. A broad trough of low pressure extending from
the southwest Alaska interior to near Northway and eastward
into Canada will persist through Monday. Weak low pressure will
gradually expand northward to the Brooks Range by Monday

Widespread showers over the Alaska Range today and tonight
becoming scattered to numerous Monday. Rainfall amounts of 0.5 to
1.5 inches expected in the eastern Alaska Range west of the Tok
Cutoff. Mainly scattered showers today and tonight with isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the southern sections
north of the Alaska Range. Isolated afternoon and/or evening
thunderstorms near the Alaska Range and in the upper Tanana
Valley Monday.

WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST...Isolated to scattered showers
most areas of the western interior this afternoon and tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the middle
Yukon Valley-lower Yukon Valley and upper Kuskokwim Valley-Nulato
Hills and inland areas of the Yukon Delta. Isolated thunderstorms
Monday afternoon and evening in the upper Kuskokwim Valley and
extreme southern parts of the middle Yukon Valley. No significant
weather expected along coastal areas from Norton Sound northward
today through Monday.

Areas of fog will continue over most areas during the late
night and early morning hours. Fog will be dense along
the eastern Arctic coast with visibility 1/4 mile or less
at times. Otherwise no significant weather along the coast
expected today through Monday.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Current models and ensemble means are pointing
to a cooler and wet weather pattern over most of northern Alaska
except for the eastern and southeastern interior where temperatures
are expected to average near or a little above normal.


Minimum relative humidities of 28 to 38 percent can expected
in the Noatak Valley and the northern and northeastern interior
today, and over the northern and northeastern interior Monday and
Tuesday. Elsewhere in the interior, minimum humidities are
expected to be near 40 percent or higher. Maximum humidities at
night are expected to be around 80 percent or higher. Interior
winds will continue to be light through Tuesday.


River levels on the Chena River from the Hunts Creek area
upstream are falling and have decreased to below flood stage. The
water level at the Moose Creek Dam is expected to remain just
above flood stage today. Flow on the Chena River through Fairbanks
is continuing to be regulated to less than 12,000 cubic feet per
second by the Moose Creek Dam. Water levels on the Chatanika,
Little Chena and Salcha Rivers are also falling but will remain
high. The Tanana River at Fairbanks is nearing a crest of 24.2
feet which is expected later this morning and continuing through
this evening before beginning a slow fall. Minor flood stage at
Fairbanks is 24.5 feet. The Tanana River at Nenana is continuing
to rise slowly and is expected to crest at around 12.2 feet the
evening. Minor flood stage at Nenana is 12.5 feet. Current GFS/NAM
models indicate potential for 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain over much
of the eastern Alaska Range west of the Tok Cutoff today through
tonight. These rainfall amounts could cause significant rises in
the levels of small rivers and streams in the Eastern Alaska


Flood advisory for the Chena River above the Moose Creek Dam.
Flood advisory for the Tanana River at Fairbanks.



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