Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 282016
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1216 PM AKDT THU MAY 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. CURRENT UPPER LEVEL
TROF OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF STATE HAS LOST A MAJORITY OF ITS
ENERGY. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...ALL
OF THE MODELS NOW DO FORM A CLOSED LOW ALOFT IN THE TROF BY THIS
EVENING NEAR BETTLES. THE LOW THEN MOVES EAST TO THE BORDER BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE TROF THIS TROF...EXPECT SOME CONVECTION TO
POP UP AHEAD OF THE TROF AS IT MOVES THE THERMAL TROF
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR TO REPLACE THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR OF ALASKA AS IT
PUSHES EASTWARD. CONVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRI THROUGH
NORTHERN ALASKA EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER.

RELATIVELY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WILL BEGIN TONIGHT
WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW. IT APPEARS AS OF NOW THAT
AROUND AN INCH OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR.

THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT
IN THE BERING STRAIT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND SOUTHWARD.

WINDS ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT BUT SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY
LATE TONIGHT. DENSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN OVER THE ARCTIC
COAST TONIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING.

STRONG FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTHERN ALASKA WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT AT 500H.

Q VECTORS ALSO SHOW STRONG CONVERGENCE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SO ALL OF THESE VARIABLE LEADS TO BELIEVE
THAT THIS DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD HAVE SOME DECENT
ENERGY WITH IT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IT
APPEARS WITH THE LONG WAVE TROF SWINGING BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT RAINFALL OVER SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES UP OVER 30 FOR MOST AREAS
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODERATELY HEAVY RAIN IN THE BROOKS RANGE DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IT
WILL RAISE THE RIVER LEVELS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
FLOODING ISSUES. THE WATER ALREADY OVER THE BANK THAT HAS CAUSED
FLOODING ON THE DALTON HIGHWAY MAY RISE A LITTLE THERE BUT THE SAG
RIVER APPEARS TO NOT BE A THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240.
&&

$$

CF MAY 15


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