Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 261310
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
410 AM AKST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...
A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD...RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN BEAUFORT SEA TO THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD
BY LATE THU NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN
BY SAT AFTERNOON. A NEW RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON.
IN THE SHORT TERM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA THU AND THU EVENING.

SURFACE...
A 992 MB LOW 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE
TO 400 MILES WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
NAVARIN BY LATE TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY. A 980 MB LOW 299 MILES SOUTH OF
SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 100 MILES WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY THU
AFTERNOON WEAKENING TO 987 MB. ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA THU AND THU EVENING.

THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN
WEST COAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES AT 900 AND 950 MB WILL BE NEAR TO A
LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING OVER ZONES 213 AND 214 THIS MORNING...AND
NEAR FREEZING OVER OVER ZONES 211-212-WESTERN ZONE 215 THIS
MORNING. WILL ALLOW THE ONGOING FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR
ZONES 213-214 TO RUN THROUGH NOON TODAY. TEMPERATURES AT 900 AND
950 MB ARE EXPECTED TO COOL SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
SHOULD END THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM.

THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR ALOFT
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.

LITTLE OR NO SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND ARCTIC SLOPE
THROUGH FRI.

THE LATER PARTS OF THE CURRENT GFS/ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE THE
GENERAL TREND TO COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD TROUGH ALOFT EXPANDS WESTWARD
OUT OF NORTHWEST CANADA. THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 HEIGHT PROGS VALID MON AND TUE AFTERNOON...
SHOWING A MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE MACKENZIE
DELTA AREA ACROSS ALASKA AND HEIGHTS FALLING TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS. AT 850 MB...ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURES DROP TO
THE -12C TO -20C RANGE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE NORTHERN
ALASKA MAINLAND BY TUE.


COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

$$

RF NOV 14



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