Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 191400
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
600 AM AKDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR THEN MOVING IT SLOWLY EAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. AT 10AM SATURDAY...THE 500MB AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST ALASKA TO JUST EAST OF KOTZEBUE SOUND AND
NORTON SOUND. AT 4PM SATURDAY...TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH
OVER AMBLER... GALENA...AND ANVIK. AT 10AM SUNDAY...THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM BARROW...SOUTH OVER BETTLES...TANANA...AND
THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT AND AT 10PM
SUNDAY THE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM PRUDHOE BAY...TO FAIRBANKS...AND
EAST OF DENALI. MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN
THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED RAINFALL BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CHUKCHI
SEA TO NORTHWEST ALASKA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HAS YET TO BE
SUPPORTED BY FIRM AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. BETWEEN THE FIRST AND
SECOND TROUGH...ON MONDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THERE
COULD BE EITHER A RIDGE OR A TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA...
DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST MODEL. THE CASE FOR A REBOUNDING RIDGE
AFTER THE SECOND TROUGH PASSES EAST SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE PRIOR BETWEEN TROUGHS.

SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE
NORTH TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFT
NORTHEAST AND BROADEN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW
OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE TO THE YUKON TERRITORY OF CANADA LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 1026MB HIGH NEAR 83N 165W WILL
DRIFT NORTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CHUKCHI
SEA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...STRONG EAST WINDS...OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND
ADJACENT MARINE AREA...WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE NORTH SLOPE DRIFTS NORTH.
SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY SNOW WEST OF PRUDHOE BAY AND RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA.

WEST COAST...MODERATE NORTH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA...
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.

INTERIOR...AREAS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
RAIN WILL END UPON THE ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR WITH NO SNOW FOR
MOST PLACES. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL BE THE MAIN EXCEPTION BUT WITH
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH. THE WESTERN ALAKSA
RANGE COULD HAVE SNOW ABOVE 3000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
RAIN WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY...BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...THEN
DIMINISH TUESDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT RAIN
ON MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...IN PARTICULAR ZONES 226
AND 224...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST. INDIVIDUAL BASINS MAY
HAVE RAINFALL AVERAGES UP TO ONE HALF INCH...WITH HIGHEST AVERAGES
IN THE 40 MILE BASIN.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

$$

DA SEP 14


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