Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 021834
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
234 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
STALL OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT GRADUALLY
PUSHES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNG...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES REMNANT WARM FRNTL
BNDRY ALIGNED FM JUST N OF MFV WNW INTO NRN VA. SAT PIX AND SFC
OBS STILL SHOW VERY LO CIGS AND PATCHY FG OVR NRN/NE PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. TO THE S AND SW...WARMER AND MORE HUMID UNDER A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. LATEST RDR SHOWED JUST ISLTD SHOWERS OR TSTMS
OVR SRN/SE PORTIONS OF NE NC.

HESISTANT TO QUICKLY ERODE MARITIME AIR OVR NE PORTIONS OF FA
THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...BECOMING WARMER/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. COLD FRONT FM THE WNW WILL BE
SLOWLY APPROACHING THE CWA THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENG. THE COMBO
OF THE APPROACHING FRNT/HEATING-MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ISLTD/SCTD SHRAS/TSTMS ACRS FA LATER THIS AFTN
INTO THIS EVENG. SPC HAS ALL BUT SE VA/NE NC IN SLGT RISK
SVR...WHICH HAS BEEN COVERED IN HWO. HI TEMPS WILL RANGE FM THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO THE UPR 70S TO LWR 80S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CDFNT ENTERS THE FA EARLY TNGT...THEN STALLS. UPR LVL LO PRES
EXITING THE MS VLY RESULTS IN INCRSG MOISTURE INTO THE MDATLC
STATES BY LT THIS EVE. A SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF MOISTURE XPCD TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SLOWS ITS PROGRESSION DUE TO THE FNT
BECOMING NRLY PARALLEL TO THE SW FLO ALOFT. CDFNT RMNS SLO TO
PUSH TO THE CST THROUGH TUE EVENING. WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PD OF
LIKELY OR HIGHER POPS TNGT INTO TUE AFTN. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATHER THAN WIND/HAIL. WILL INCLUDE A CHC
OF TSTMS MON NGT/TUE MRNG ALL AREAS...THEN ONLY ACRS FAR SRN/SE
VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE L60S NW TO THE M60S
SE. HI TEMPS TUE FM THE U60S-L70S N/CNTRL TO U70S S. DIMINISHING
CHCS FOR PCPN WED...THOUGH W/ UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN 20-40%
POPS ALG WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS. HI TEMPS WED AGAIN FM
THE U60S-L70S N/CNTRL TO U70S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SETTLES SOUTH
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW AND THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LINGERS NEAR THE COAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOST PERIODS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S EXCEPT RANGING
INTO THE UPR 70S ACROSS SRN VA AND NE NC ON SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS ARE INDICATED NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGE FROM 50 TO 55
EXCEPT FOR SOME MID TO UPR 40S INLAND RURAL AREAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR TO START OFF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AS LO CLOUDS HAVE
ERODED ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME MVFR HANGING ON AT SBY...BUT
VIS SATELLITE SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE LWR ERN
SHORE SO INCLUDED VFR CIGS IN A TEMPO GROUP THERE. S FLOW
CONTINUES THIS AFTN/EVENG WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE AS RAIN
CHANCES GO UP. SHRAS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENG/OVRNGT. TSTMS ARE PSBL AS WELL BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
IN THE TIMING ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
EXPECTED TUE MORNG AS HAS BEEN THE CASE PREVIOUS MORNGS...WITH A
STATIONARY FRNTAL BNDRY STILL IN THE VICINITY. CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL COTNINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE
THIS MORNING WITH E WINDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES...AND S WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER CHES
BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS SHOULD BECOME
S-SW ALL WATERS AT 10-15 KT. VSBYS WILL REMAIN 1-3 NM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE BOUNDARY
NEARBY. HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS 5 FT SEAS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY LATE TONIGHT
THEN DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS ON TUE WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-
NE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO TUE EVE. ATTM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SCA CONDS
WILL BE REALIZED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR POST-FRONTAL...WITH
WINDS STAYING AOB 15 KT AND WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...ALB/TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...MAS
MARINE...JDM



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