Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
FXUS61 KAKQ 251417
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1017 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
High pressure builds in from the northwest today and remains over
the region through Wednesday. A cold front approaches from the
northwest Thursday morning and crosses the area during the
afternoon and evening. High pressure returns Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1036mb high pressure centered north of the Great Lakes expands SE
over the mid-Atlantic region today. A look at IR/Vis satellite
imagery shows a clear sky this morning, with the exception of a
small bay streamer from the Lower Ern Shore swd across the mouth
of the bay and over VA Beach. This should dissipate by midday with
a sunny sky prevailing across the region today. Continued CAA in
the wake of yesterday`s cold front will allow for cooler
temperatures on the order of 10-15 degrees. 850mb temperatures
drop to 0 to -2C across the ne this aftn and 0-4C farther sw. This
will result in highs ranging from the mid/upper 50s ne to the low
60s across interior VA/NC.
The high continues to build in from the nnw tonight. This appears
to be the coldest night through midweek (and probably so far this
season), with lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s over much of the
area to the low/mid 40s for coastal se VA/ne NC. This will bring
the potential for patchy frost except along the coast. Some
modest mid-level (700-850mb) waa is expected to commence late
tonight, which could result in some high clouds across the heart
of our CWA. The potential for frost will be less if this does
occur. Due to low confidence in widespread frost and in
coordination with neighboring offices will not be issuing a frost
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continued cool Wednesday under a partly to mostly sunny sky with
highs in the mid/upper 50s ne to low 60s sw. There is the
potential for highs to hold in the 50s for the entire area if
more cloud cover develops.
Shortwave energy will lift through the Great Lakes Wednesday night
into Thursday morning with the trailing cold front approaching
from the nw Thursday aftn. Milder Wednesday night with lows
generally in the 40s across the area, with low 50s se with
increasing clouds from w-e late. Clouds continue to increase
Thursday with much of the area becoming mostly cloudy to overcast.
Chc PoPs (25-50%) for showers spread across the nrn 2/3rds of the
area by afternoon. Moisture is limited with this system, so
current QPF through 00z Friday is aob 0.1". Highs Thursday range
from the low 60s nw to near 70 se.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cold front forecast to push across the forecast area to begin the
extended period Thursday night. Best dynamics associated with a
potent shortwave trough progged to push across the Northeast
Thursday night, with modest height falls and moisture return
expected over the forecast area. Best chances for showers will be
across the northeast forecast area, tapering off to low end chance
south and west due to limited moisture/dynamics. The front quickly
pushes offshore late Thursday night as high pressure builds in from
the west for Friday. Dry with highs generally in the mid to upper
60`s. The next in a series of northern stream disturbances drops
across the Great Lakes Friday night and into the Northeast states
Saturday. GFS and CMC drop a cold front into the region Saturday and
across the region Saturday night. However, the ECMWF is flatter with
the shortwave and doesn`t push a front through the region until
Sunday night. Will carry a slight chance to low end chance POP`s
across the northern forecast area Saturday and along the coast
Saturday night, but confidence is not high (hence low POP`s). Highs
Saturday expected to push into the low to mid 70`s. Differences in
frontal timing will have a drastic impact on temperatures Sunday,
and possibly Monday. Have opted for a blend of the guidance until
better agreement can be made. Highs Sunday and Monday are forecast
in the 60`s. Will keep POP`s silent Sunday and Monday as any frontal
boundary will likely be dry. Lows generally in the 40`s to low 50`s
through the period.
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry and VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday.
Outlook...fog and/or low clouds are possible Thursday morning as
high pressure moves off the coast and moisture increases over the
area. A cold front crosses the area Thursday aftn/eve bringing a
chance of showers. Dry weather and high pressure return for
SCA Flags have been cancelled for the nrn Bay zones (n of New
Point Comfort) and nrn coastal zones (n of Cape Charles).
CAA surge will slowly diminish today as high pressure builds into
the area from the NW. Seas average 3-5 ft, highest out near 20 nm.
SCA`s remain in place for the Ches Bay and coastal waters. Went
ahead and dropped headlines across the rivers as high res data
appears to be to high with the sustained winds. Data suggests
another "minimal surge" across the middle Ches Bay this evening.
Kept forecast at 15 kts for now as confidence not high enough to
extend the SCA headline past this afternoon.
High pressure moves over the waters Wednesday with a north wind at
or below 15 kts. Waves 1-2 feet, seas 2-3 feet. High pressure slides
offshore Wednesday night and Thursday ahead of the next cold front.
Flow becomes southerly and increases to 10-20 knots Thursday ahead
of the front. A S-SW SCA possible ahead of the front Thursday night.
A cold front drops across the waters early Friday with another CAA
surge progged behind it.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632-