Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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552
FXUS61 KAKQ 301055
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
655 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will linger over the Mid-Atlantic region
this weekend. Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will become
centered across the eastern states this weekend through early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current wv imagery depicts a trough over the Great Lakes
with an upper ridge over the wrn Atlantic. At the surface, a weak
trough is situated over the Mid-Atlantic region. The upper trough
will gradually sink sewd today. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will
track across PA/nrn VA/ne MD, with additional shortwave energy
lifting ne across the Carolinas. Sct showers/tstms are expected to
develop in vicinity of the surface trough today as mid-level
shortwave energy provides lift. The best forcing will not be
directly over the local area, so forecast PoPs will remain 40-50%
and primarily concentrated west of the Bay. PW values per GEFS/SREF
reach +2 st dev, so any showers/tstms have the potential to produce
moderate to heavy rain, although the forcing is not such to support
sustained high rain rates. NAM/GFS generally depict 1200-2000 J/kg
of 0-1km MLCAPE today along with 25-30kt of 0-6km bulk shear on the
srn flank of stronger westerlies to the n of the local area. As a
result, a few loosely organized tstms are possible, which could
produce localized strong wind gusts (wet microbursts). However,
mid-level lapse rates less than 6C/km will be a limiting factor.
Temperatures early this morning range from the low to mid 70s.
Temperatures should rise quickly into the 80s this morning under a
partly to mostly sunny sky, before cu rapidly develop late morning
into the afternoon. Highs will generally be in the mid/upper 80s
with near 90 se.

Lingering sct showers/tstms gradually lift ne this evening toward
the Ern Shore, then slide offshore overnight. Otherwise, partly to
mostly cloudy and humid with lows in the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Midwest trough will slide into the region Sunday
into Monday and take up residence over the eastern Conus. Mainly
diurnally driven showers/tstms are possible Sunday with PoPs in the
30-50% range. With the trough in place will also see temps remain
close to normal. Highs Sunday range from the mid/upr 80s north to
the low 90s south.

The upper trough sharpens even further across the East Coast Sunday
night into Monday as a more substantial shortwave trough tracks
across the area helping to push cold front through the region by
midday Monday. Pcpn chances Monday will be highest over se VA/ne NC,
so chc pops (30%) will continue there, with slight chc (20%)
elsewhere. Highs again generally range from the upr 80s to low 90s
after morning lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front stalls off the Mid Atlantic coast into the
Carolinas Mon night through mid week...gradually washing
out as sfc high pressure builds into the NE CONUS from the
Great Lakes Region during the second half of the week. This
will keep a chance for thunderstorms in the forecast through
Tue night...with only a slight chance for storms across
far s-sw counties Wed/Thu closer to the remnant boundary.

With sfc high pressure building into New England early in
the week and then settling over the NE CONUS during the
second half of the week...expect temperatures to be more
seasonal with highs generally in the mid-upper 80s and
cooler dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s...effectively
squashing heat indices and limiting them to the lower 90
degree range. Onshore winds also develop by Tue aftn and are
expected to persist through the rest of the week...thus
enhancing any drying and cooling effects to temps, dewpoints,
and overall precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Other than isolated IFR/MVFR fog early this morning, expect mainly
VFR conditions today into Sun morning. However, the combination of
a warm front, deeper low level moisture, Shortwave energy, and
vertical motion moving acrs the area this aftn into tngt, will
bring a decent chc for showers and tstms at the taf sites. Did not
mention any pcpn in tafs at this time due to POPs being 50% or
less. Lesser chcs late tngt thru Sun morning, as that energy moves
off the coast. There will be chcs again Sun aftn into Sun ngt, as
a trough of low pressure lingers over the area. Periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in any tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines in the short term today thru Sun ngt. Winds were NE-
SE arnd 5 kt or less early this morning ovr the waters, and will
become SE 5 to 10 kt during today, as a warm front approaches and
moves into the region. Winds will then become S then SW later tngt
into Sun morning, as the warm front pushes off the coast. A cold
front will then drop acrs the waters and off the coast Mon into
Tue morning. High pressure returns to the waters on Wed. Seas
will average 2-3 ft thru the period with 1-2 ft waves in the Bay.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/JDM
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG



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