Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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134
FXUS61 KAKQ 012007
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
407 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex area of low pressure will track to the north of
the Mid-Atlantic region tonight into Sunday. A cold front drops
through the area Sunday night, with high pressure building north of
the area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Current GOES WV imagery depicts a stubborn upper low lifting nwd
over the lower Great Lakes. Meanwhile, the associated moist
airstream is pushing off the coast, with only iso-sct showers
(possibly a tstm) lingering from the wrn shore of the Bay ewd
through the evening. The low begins to lift to the ne later
tonight, which could allow some additional moisture to lift up the
coast, so a 30-40% PoP will linger overnight. Additional QPF will
be minimal and mainly aob 0.1". The low-level flow will remain
weak, so fog and stratus will likely develop later tonight. Lows
range from the upper 50s over the piedmont, to the mid/upper 60s
at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper low fills and becomes an open wave as it lifts ne
through the Saint Lawrence Valley Sunday into Sunday night.
Meanwhile, weak high pressure and a drier airmass build in from
the nw. There remains a slight chc of showers for coastal
se VA/ne NC with lingering low-level moisture. Otherwise, partly
sunny to potentially mostly cloudy along the coast with highs
ranging from around 80 nw to the low 80s se.

A weak cold front pushes through Sunday night with a slightly
cooler airmass building in from the nnw. Generally partly cloudy
Sunday night into Monday. Lows Sunday night range from the
mid/upper 50s w to the low/mid 60s at the coast, followed by highs
Monday in the upper 70s to around 80. High pressure continues to
build down from the n Monday night into Tuesday with the low-level
flow gradually becoming ne. As a result, expect a slight cooling
trend to continue under a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky. Lows
Tuesday night drop into the mid 50s to around 60, with highs
Tuesday in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The mid week surface progs show a strong surface high over Maine
with ridging south into the Gulf Coast States. This high will
retreat to the northeast as a cold front approaches from the west
toward the end of the week. There will be 20 to 40 percent chance
for showers through the period especially across eastern portions
of the area...with the highest chances occurring on Friday.

Hurricane Matthew is expected to be nearly stalled over the
Bahamas around mid week and waiting for marching orders. The most
likely course at this time would be to the north or northeast but
uncertainty remains. Stay up to date on the latest forecast
information through the National Hurricane Center.

High temperatures are forecast to range from the lower 70s in the
Piedmont to the upper 70s in the southeast. Lows are expected to
range from the upper 50s to lower 60s well inland to the mid and
upper 60s in the southeast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary extended through eastern Virginia and will
be slow to move off the coast through Sunday. High pressure will
build from the north into the Mid Atlantic States early next week.

Low level moisture continues over the area with light and variable
winds. Most of the IFR appears to have ended except for some
intermittent conditions at SBY. IFR or LIFR ceilings and
visibilities are expected over inland areas once again early
Sunday morning. Conditions improve late Sunday morning and VFR
should be more prevalent than it was by mid-day Saturday. Showers
will be possible during the period...mainly over eastern portions
of the area.

OUTLOOK...Patchy fog will be possible Monday morning. Dry weather
is forecast Monday and Tuesday. There will be a chance for showers
mainly toward the coast Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over SE Canada/Nrn New England continues to break
down tonight as a complex area of low pressure tracks north and
away from the Mid Atlantic Region by Sun morning. Winds generally
light (aob 10kt) and variable E-SE. Seas 3-4ft srn half of coastal
waters while seas average 4-5ft from Fenwick Island to Parramore
Island. SCA flags remain in effect through 1000 PM this evening
when seas should subside to 3-4ft.

Calmer marine conditions expected late tonight through Mon. Wind
directions will be variable ssw-w through Sun evening and then
shift to a more nly direction Mon into early Tue. Winds by Tue
aftn are then expected to become predominantly NE and increase to
15-20kt sustained in response to a tightening pressure gradient
caused by Hurricane Matthew (located over the Caribbean) and
another Canadian high pressure centered over SE Canada/Nrn New
England through Thu. Wind speeds will also be enhanced by a pesky
upper low slowly passing north of the waters during this time.
Seas/waves expected to build quickly Tue aftn (4-5ft/3-4ft
respectively)...continuing to gradually build as Hurricane Matthew
inches closer to the Southeast coast late in the week. There
remains a lot of uncertainty regarding Matthew`s storm track at
this time. However, the general trend for late next week continues
to be increasing onshore/NE winds and continually building seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding continues across the primary rivers of the Lower
MD Eastern Shore due to recent heavy rainfall, mainly the Pocomoke
and especially at Snow Hill. This flooding will likely continue
through Sunday based on latest levels and EM reports. See the
latest flood statements (FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ) for more details.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood advisories remain in effect for the following areas:
1. MD Lower Eastern Shore (Ches Bay areas)
2. Northern Neck

Will evaluate ongoing trends to see if either of the above
advisories need to be extended for the next high tide cycle.
Otherwise, tidal anomalies will continue to decrease incrementally
by a few tenths of a foot with each passing high tide cycle
through early in the week. After which, a resurgence of persistent
and strong onshore/NE winds could exacerbate coastal flooding
concerns again by mid week (possibly beginning Tue night with the
initial surge in winds).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ089-090-
     093.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ075>078.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BMD



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