Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
FXUS61 KAKQ 270752
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
352 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016
A weak cold front slowly drops south through the region today.
The front then stalls and dissipates across northeast North
Carolina Sunday into Monday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak cold front has entered northern portions of the forecast
area this morning. Have begun to see some mid clouds (5-7kft)
develop south of the front along/east of I-95 as anticipated by
latest model guidance. Hi-res models (CAMS) also had the right
idea in showing isold showers developing in the aforementioned
areas and indeed a couple of showers are showing up on the radar
early this morning. Will carry slight chc pops (~20%) over south-
central VA and interior NE NC thru 12z when they should dissipate.
The weak front will slowly progress south through the day
today...reaching the NC border this evening. Meanwhile, sfc high
pressure centered along the New England coast will nudge south
into the rest of VA/MD. Light onshore flow (sea breeze) this aftn
in the presence of the weak boundary may touch off an isold
shwr/tstm across far swrn portions of the area but otherwise dry
wx expected. Highs today from the upr 80s to low 90s (mid 80s
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The boundary stalls near the VA/NC border tonight/Sunday and is
then expected to dissipate by Monday. Meanwhile, mid-upper level
high pressure maintains itself over the mid-Atlantic as the sfc
high to the north slides farther off the New England coast. One
other feature of note is a coastal trough that pushes west and
reaches the SE coast Sunday/Monday. The combination of these
features will necessitate the need for low end pops (20-30%)
across far SE VA and NE NC both days. Dry elsewhere. Light onshore
flow should help keep max temps in check. Highs both days in the
80s to around 90. Lows in the upr 60s to low 70s.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Going with a blend of the 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF for the extended
period. Will have a mainly dry fcst thru the period, except for
slgt to sml chcs (15-30%) for pcpn Tue thru Thu fm tropical
moisture along the coast and a cold front pushing acrs the area
late Wed into early Thu. More comfortable airmass will filter into
the region for late Thu thru Fri, as high pressure blds in fm the
N. Highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tue and Wed, in the mid to
upr 80s Thu, and in the lower to mid 80s Fri. Lows in the upr 60s
to mid 70s Mon ngt, Tue ngt, and Wed ngt, and in the mid 60s to
near 70 Thu ngt.
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front will drop south through the region today with
light NE winds developing at all TAF sites. Anticipating a SCT-BKN
deck of mid clouds (5-7kft) thru 12z or so...otw VFR
today/tonight. A breif -SHRA cannout be ruled out PHF/ORF or ECG
The front will dissipate by Sunday/Monday with high pressure
building over the area through midweek. Mainly dry weather is
expected through Wednesday. There will be a chance for isold
shwrs/tstms Sunday/Monday afternoon and evening southeast
portions (ORF/ECG) and isolated thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday and Wednesday.
Sub-sca conditions will continue across the waters through at least
the next few days. A weak cold front drops into the area this
morning, with light/variable winds becoming NE by this aftn. Expect
1-2 waves over the bay and 2-3 ft seas over the coastal waters.
Onshore flow below 15 kt will then continue into Sun, as high
pressure slides by to the NNE of the region. Winds average 10-15 kt
for Mon thru Wed, as high pressure weakens and slides out to sea.
Weak low pressure areas or possible tropical lows will spin off the
SE or Mid Atlc during this period, and will cause long period swells
to propagate toward the coastal waters, with seas remaining 3-4
The high temperature at Richmond Friday was 99 degrees. This tied
the record for the date set in 1975. This also tied the high
temperature for the year so far which occurred earlier this month on