Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282023
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
423 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will linger near the Virginia North Carolina
border tonight. A cold front approaches from the northwest on
Memorial Day and stalls north of the region into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Weak S/W aloft tracking E into ern VA attm continues to bring
SHRAs/ISOLD tstms to E and SE portions of the FA.
Meanwhile...a sfc boundary remains near the VA-NC border...then
is aligned NW through wrn VA into wrn PA. Residual in-situ low
level wedge remains tough to dislodge...and w/ earlier RA
wrn/central portions...and RA now in the E...that wedge will be
tough to dislodge through the evening hours. Despite breaks of
sunshine and dewpoints in the u60s-l70s...stability parameters
and onshore winds show wedge the best...and will likely limit
convective development (w/ possible exception near-S of the VA-
NC border and W of the FA) through this evening...where best
heating/instability will linger and possible additional ISOLD-
SCT tstms may develop. Near term models and HRRR reflectively
suggest limited coverage through this evening over the bulk of
the FA...waning overnight. Otherwise...VRB clouds-mostly cloudy
tonight. Will include patchy FG overnight as well. Lows ranging
through the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will be crossing the mountains Mon morning...then
continue E Mon afternoon. Models continue to show drying over
most of the area...w/ the instability/moisture axis shifting SE
into far SE VA-NE NC...where additional SHRAS/tstms are
possible in the afternoon/evening. Partly sunny on Memorial Day
with highs in the l-m80s N to the m-u80s S (70s along the
Atlantic beaches of the eastern shore).

12Z/28 guidance continues to show that the cold front becomes
aligned parallel to WSW flow aloft...stalling immediately N of
the region to perhaps pushing into the MD Ern Shore. The chc for
aftn/evening SHRAS/tstms will diminish Tue...though will
continue w/ 20-40% PoPs in far srn and SE VA/NE NC. Highs
Tue from the u70s-l80s at the coast to the m80s inland...after
morning lows ranging through the 60s.

Little change in conditions Tue night-Wed. Upper level trough
to sharpen into the ern CONUS...though a strong enough trigger
for widespread convective development (esp Wed) ill-defined.
Maintaining PoPs (15-25%) in far SE VA-NE NC...mainly Wed
afternoon. Lows Tue night in the 60s. Highs Wed in the u70s-
l80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term period beginning Wednesday night will start off mainly
dry with high pressure over the Mid Atlantic States Thursday. The
high will merge with the Bermuda High pressure ridge. This will
promote a slight warming trend and an increase of moisture. A
frontal boundary will settle over northern portions of the Mid
Atlantic States and help to trigger scattered mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms over the region.

High temperatures will range from 80 to 85 but slightly cooler at
the beaches. Lows of 60 to 65 Thursday and Friday mornings warm to
the mid to upper 60s Saturday and Sunday mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 17z...Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms were over
eastern Virginia and the Lower Eastern Shore. Activity was moving to
the northeast. A frontal boundary extended from the Atlantic along
the VA/NC border to the Piedmont then continuing as a warm front
into Ohio and Indiana. A few additional showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible late today into early this evening.
Onshore flow will promote another round of stratus and fog Monday
morning with areas of IFR especially inland areas. Conditions return
to VFR late Monday morning.

OUTLOOK...There will be a chance for thunderstorms southeast
portions Tuesday. Otherwise mainly dry weather is forecast through
Thursday with only a stray shower or thunderstorm possible. The
chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms increase on Friday
mainly in southern Virginia and northeast North Carolina. Patchy fog
or stratus will be possible each morning within a few hours of
sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Late this aftn, weak low pressure was near the SE VA/NE NC
border. That low will move ENE and out to sea tonight thru Mon.
A weak cold front will push acrs the area during Mon, then
washes out over the Carolinas during Tue. Another weak cold
front slides acrs the region Tue night into Wed morning, with
yet another cold front moving thru the waters Wed night. High
pressure will build over the waters then out to sea Thu into
Fri. Winds/waves/seas will remain below SCA criteria thru the
period. Variable direction winds will be 15 kt or less, with
waves 1 to 2 ft and seas 2 to 4 ft.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...TMG



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.