Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 250825
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
425 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide across the Mid Atlantic region then off
the coast today through tonight...then remain centered well off
the Mid Atlantic coast through Friday. Weak low pressure will
approach from the south Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level ridging and sfc hi pres will slide acrs the area to
the cst today into tngt. Lots of sunshine combined with a wsw sfc
wind and 850 mb temps expected to rise to ~15C this aftn, will
result in High temps in the mid to upr 80s most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper rdg and sfc hi pres will be off the cst or right alng
the cst Thu thru Fri. Expect a mostly sunny or partly sunny sky
both days with a little more humidity, as sw or s flo continues.
With 850mb temps rising to 16-17C Thu aftn, expect High temps in
the upr 80s/arnd 90 ovr most of the inland/piedmont of va/nc.
High temps ranging thru the 80s ovr the lwr md and va ern shr.
If any of our primary climate sites reach 90 deg this week, it
will be the first time this season (see climate section).

Forecast soundings not real enthusiastic about aftn tstm chcs the
next few days. Have slgt or sml chc pops ovr wrn/nw counties for
Thu aftn, and just slgt chc pops for now ovr those same areas for
Fri aftn, due to potential lee trof and weak instability alng/east
of the mountains. Highs on Fri in the mid/upr 80s...upr 70s/lwr
80s immediate cst. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Bermuda sfc high pressure remains over the wrn Atlantic Ocean
with mid-upper level ridging over the ne CONUS through at least
Sun. ECMWF starting to come more in line with the GFS model
solution of tracking a low pressure system into the Southeast
coast/Carolinas Fri night-Tue. Expect increasing clouds and
wraparound moisture moving into areas along/south of the
VA/NC border from the SE during the second half of Sat...with
a return to more dismal rainy/cloudy conditions anticipated
Sun-Tue. Thunderstorms will also be possible each aftn/evening
during this time. Overall, the GFS has been much more aggressive
than other long range models and have therefore trended the
forecast twd a SuperBlend/WPC blend for POPs and a
SuperBlend/WPC/MOS blend for sky cover. Low temps should remain
fairly unchanged with readings in the 60s. High temps are
expected to trend downward for Sat/Sun with highs in the
lower 80s (low-mid 70s beaches), and even lower for Sun with
highs in the 70s (upper 60s Atlantic beaches).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure off the Carolina coast will dominate the weather
during the 06z TAF period. Dry/VFR wx is xpcd through Thu/Fri.
Moisture associated with low pressure in the Bahamas is expected
to spread precipitation to the area during the weekend.

Winds are forecast to remain aob 10 kt during the next 24
hours...generally fm the WSW. Little or no clouds are expected.
Limited or no fg xpcd this mrng.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines necessary the next few days. Hi pres sfc-aloft
builds acrs the wtrs through tda...then rmns nr the mdatlc wtrs
through Fri/Sat...providing mnly SSW wnds blo 15 kt. Contg to
monitor psbl lo pres development off SE conus cst lt wk into the
wknd...which may bring incrsd SE wnds and deteriorating conds ovr
the local wtrs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly rainfall total to date for May at Richmond is 8.41".
May 2016 is currently the 6th wettest month of May on record at
Richmond.

Top 6 wettest months of May at Richmond

    1. 9.13"  1889
    2. 8.98"  1873
    3. 8.87"  1972
    4. 8.67"  1886
    5. 8.59"  2003
    6. 8.41"  2016 (to date)

Average 1st 90 deg day:
RICMay 13
ORFMay 17
SBYMay 27

1st 90 deg day last year (2015):
RICMay 12
ORFMay 12
SBYJun 1

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...JDM/TMG
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
CLIMATE...AKQ



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