Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 282345
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING (MAINLY PULSE TYPE) TSTMS ONGOING THIS AFTN FROM THE
EASTERN PIEDMONT TO THE NORTHERN NECK. HAVE SEEN ISOLD CELLS POP
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC AND THE EASTERN SHORE BUT THESE HAVE NOT BE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. SVR THREAT REMAINS LOW THRU THE
EVENING GIVEN WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR (<25KT). MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOTION/TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THE SAME AREAS. DUAL-POL RADAR
ALREADY SHOWING A FEW LOCATIONS IN DINWIDDIE/SOUTHERN CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY WITH UP TO 3-4" OF RAIN THIS AFTN WITH SPOTTER REPORTS
BACKING THIS UP. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS 40-70% ACROSS THE
WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FA THRU THE EVENING...WITH 20-30% POPS AT
THE COAST...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. OTW...PTLY TO MSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN CONVECTION WHILE MAX
TEMPS WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. HAVE CHC POPS (25-30%) ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95. PARTLY SUNNY W/ HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPR 80S TO LOW
90S...WITH LOW/MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. MILD WED NIGHT W/ LOW TEMPS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

THURSDAY...
UPR RIDGING RETROGRADES A BIT THURSDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. DUE TO THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT...CHC POPS (30-50%) WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTN...LOWERING TO ~20% AT THE COAST. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
INTO THE UPR 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT LOW/MID 80S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. HAVE SOLID
CHANCE POPS (30-50%) MOST AREAS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
THRU MIDDAY FRI...THEN FOCUS CHC POPS ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC
FRIDAY AFTN. DRY WX SHOULD RETURN TO NW AREAS BY LATE MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. LOWS THU NIGHT IN THE 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATTERN BEGINS WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SW CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTING ACRS HUDSON BAY
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF INTO BETTER DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT...THEN FLATTEN OUT
SUN WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACRS THE MID ATLC BY MON.

FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS OVER FAR SRN VA/NC LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND. BEST CHC FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH/MAINLY
NE NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT EVEN HERE WILL ONLY GO WITH A 20-30%
POPS/PRIMARILY FOR THE AFTN/EVENING TIMEFRAME (TAPERED TO 20% FAR
SRN VA AND DRY ELSEWHERE). DID RAISE POPS A BIT FOR MON DUE TO THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BUT NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS THIS IS 5-6
DAYS OUT SO WILL GENLY KEEP POPS ONLY AT 30-40% SOUTH TO 20% NORTH.
KEEPING POPS AROUND 20% ALL AREAS TUE. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LWR 70S SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS LEFT IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND SHOULD END
BY 29/0400Z. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL TODAY AT KRIC AND KSBY...
SHALLOW GROUND FOG AND FEW-SCT CLOUDS AROUND 400FT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 29/0900Z AND PERSIST THROUGH 29/1200-1300Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXPAND EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AFTN THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ERN
HALF OF THE AREA (INCLUDING TAF SITES KSBY/KPHF/KORF/KECG)...
HOWEVER THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
THE UPPER RIDGE TO KEEP VCSH AT KRIC (INCLUDING AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95). OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK...
THEREFORE THE MAIN THREAT WITH AFTN/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING QUICK REDUCTIONS TO CIGS (MVFR) AND
VISIBILITIES (LIFR TO IFR). A TROUGH CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN IT STALLS ACROSS FAR SE VA
AND THE ERN CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED INVOF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOTH AFTNS/EVENINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST WITH
WEAK SFC TROUGHING INLAND ACRS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. S/SE
WINDS AVG 10-15 KT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL DROP OFF TO
S/SW 5-10 KT WED MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE
STRONGER LATE WED AFTN/WED NIGHT AS SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER VA DEEPENS
SLIGHTLY AND HELPS S/SE WINDS AVG AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY. COULD BE
A FEW HRS WORTH OF 20 KT GUSTS IN THE BAY BUT TOO MARGINAL TO
CONSIDER ANY SCA HEADLINES FOR NOW. WAVES GENLY 1-2 FT IN THE
BAY BUT WILL PROBABLY BUILD TO 2-3 FT WED EVENING. SEAS 2-3 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE THU...THEN STALLS SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK. S/SE WINDS AVG 10-15 KT...TURNING
SSW THU NIGHT. NOT A STRONG COOL SURGE ON FRI AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING OVER SRN VA/ERN NC SO WILL KEEP
WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO E/SE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH WAVES 1-2 FT/SEAS 2-4 FT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...LKB
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...LKB


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