Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 211815
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
115 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SETTLING OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE HIGH THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BEFORE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN. BREEZY NNW WINDS THIS MORNG...WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTN...AS THE CNTR OF THE HI BLDS CLOSER TO
THE REGION. COOLER AIR SINKING TO THE SFC IN AN INCREASINGLY MORE
STABLE AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS TO WARM MORE THAN
THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...DESPITE A SUNNY SKY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD TONIGHT...AND WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S
(NEAR 30 AT FAR SE VA/NE NC BEACHES).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AND THEN
COMPLETELY OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE COASTLINE...WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES AND A RETURN TO
SLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARM-UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S (UPPER 40S MD/VA LOWER
EASTERN SHORE AND NRN NECK). MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE
PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS GULF COAST MOISTURE
GETS PULLED INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DIGGING ACROSS
TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL RAPIDLY
JUST AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN HOLD STEADY CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK DUE TO THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
LOW-MID 30S MOST AREAS (UPPER 30S IMMEDIATE COAST). A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH AND ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE CNTRL PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST. MODELS HAVE UNIFORMLY SLOWED
THE INFLUX OF OVERRUNNING STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTN...HOWEVER PRECIP TENDS TO COME IN FASTER THAN QPF DEPICTIONS.
HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS COMING INTO FAR SW
PORTION OF THE FA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREADING LIKELY
POPS FROM SW TO CHANCE POPS NE DURING SUNDAY AFTN. PWATS INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT A DEEPLY
SATURATED COLUMN. THIS MEANS THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
NICELY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S NW TO LOWER
60S SE...POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THE SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE DIURNAL TREND EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL ABOUT 5 DEGREES INTO THE
LOWER 50S NW TO UPPER 50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS DIFFER WRT TIMING OF THE CDFRNTL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
GFS ABT 6 HRS FASTER THAN EURO MON NIGHT. EITHER WAY...MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A WARM AND BREEZY DAY AS FA BECOMES WARM SECTORED
WELL AHEAD OF CDFRNT. KEPT LOW CHC POP GOING FOR ANY SHWR THAT
DVLPS IN THE WRMR AIRMASS. HIGHS U60S-M70S. CHC POPS MON NIGHT
WITH FROPA. LOWS M-U40S...XCPT 50-55 SERN CSTL AREAS.

KEPT LOW CHC POPS ACROSS ERN AREAS TUE AS A WEAK S/W MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRNT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE COAST. OTW...DRIER AND COOLER
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS U50S-L60S. LOWS TUE NITE M30S-M40S.

HIGHS PRES FROM THE WEST (PACIFIC ORIGIN VS CANADIAN) ALLOWS FOR A
QUIET MID WEEK PRD. DRY WX THRU TURKEY DAY ALONG WITH A GRDL COOLING
TREND. HIGHS WED 50-55. LOWS WED NITE U20S-U30S. HIGHS THURSDAY
U40S-L50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD
...W/ WNDS NW (AND GUSTY TO 20 KT) THROUGH LATE AFTN. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO
SAT...MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.

A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS LT SUN INTO MON MRNG.

&&

.MARINE...
CDFNT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AKQ WTRS EARLY THIS AFTN. LO LVL
CAA CONTG INTO THIS AFTN W/ GUSTY NW WNDS TO 25 KT OR SO...BEGINNING
TO WANE THIS EVNG. WILL HAVE SCAS CONT THROUGH 00Z...WITH SCA
LASTING THROUGH 06Z FOR SEAS FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TDA INTO SAT...
MOVING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. NEXT CHC FOR SCA`S WILL COME LATE
SUN INTO MON AS SRLY WINDS INCRS AHEAD OF NEXT SYS APPROACHING FROM
THE SW.

TIDE ANOMALIES CONTG TO AVG ARND 1/2 FOOT BLO NORMAL INTO SUN.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BMD
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...BMD
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...DAP
MARINE...ALB






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