Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 251452
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1052 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALING ~1028 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED
SW TO NE FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.
ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED
OFF THE SE COAST, BUT WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, SFC
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES BEGIN TO CREEP ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL TODAY ON S-SE WIND
(BREEZY THIS AFTN DURING PEAK MIXING). HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE BENEATH
THE RIDGE WILL BRING A DRY/WARM MEMORIAL DAY ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW TO SCT AFTN CU. THICKNESS TOOLS
REFLECTING A MODEST BUMP UPWARD IN TEMPS COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...ABOUT A CATEGORY HIGHER ON AVG COMPARED TO THOSE OF
YESTERDAY. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE 75 TO 80 ALONG THE
COAST...LOWER/MID 80S NORTH...MID 80S SOUTH. CLEAR AND MILD
TONIGHT W/EARLY MORNING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS THRU
TUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INCREMENTAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY TUE/WED. A WEAK LEE TROF
DEVELOPS LATE TUE...AND SOME SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
MTNS. HOWEVER, AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED WITH CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED
TO HOLD TOGETHER FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL AREA. DID ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE FAR WESTERN TIER OF THE AREA MAINLY ALONG AND NW OF
HWY 15...BUT OTHERWISE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.

UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WED/THU,
DAMPENING THE EAST COAST UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY. RESULTANT PRESSURE
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL SHARPEN LEE TROF A BIT
FURTHER FOR WED AFTN. THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH INCREASING/ADVANCING
MSTR FROM THE MID-SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
AT LEAST SOME FORCING FOR SOME ISO TO WIDELY SCT MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. HAVE ALIGNED 20-30 POP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT ON
WED, MAINLY ALONG/W OF I-95. CHC POP ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AGAIN ON
THU...WITH A SLIGHT CHC POP INSTALLED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AS
ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT NE FROM THE OH/TN VLYS. SEVERE
WX NOT EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SHEAR PROFILES
REMAINING RATHER WEAK. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WOULD PORTEND TO A
CONCERN FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
WED/THU...BUT OVERALL, EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS TO BE
RATHER LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WHILE INCREASING RH WILL MAKE IT INCREASINGLY "SUMMER-LIKE" BY THE
DAY, LOOK FOR HIGHS EACH DAY IN M-U80S W OF THE CHES BAY...M70S-
L80S ALONG THE COAST...COOLEST AT THE BEACHES. EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EACH
DAY AND TYPICAL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR /TSTMS ACROSS NW AREAS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP FRONTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. LEESIDE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER AFTER THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. GFS/EURO BOTH
INDICATE DRYING FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. RIDGING WEAKENS AND THE COLD FRONT TO THE NW BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE AREA. TSTM CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES INLAND RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR 80S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY INCREASING TO AROUND 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
80 TO 85 NEAR THE COAST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 70.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PROVIDE STABLE
CONDITIONS AND S/SW WINDS DURING THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH LATE AFTN WITH A FEW GUSTS
REACHING AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTLY SOUTHERLY MONDAY
EVENING...THEN INCREASE FROM THE S/SW BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE SKY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS BY TUESDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
PIEDMONT MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY AT RIC/SBY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY. OUTSIDE TSTMS...VFR CONDS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WHILE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SE
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL VARY BTWN A SSE-SSW DIRECTION...BECOMING
BREEZY AOB 15KT EACH AFTN/EARLY EVENING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA...HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS
COULD REACH UP TO 20KT AT TIMES ON THE COASTAL WATERS/CHES
BAY/SOUND. THE MID/UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN TUE NIGHT DUE TO A
REMNANT TROUGH PASSING ACROSS THE WRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING WED AFTN/EVENING AND WILL ALLOW
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WAVES/SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3FT TODAY THROUGH FRI.
HOWEVER...SEAS MAY REACH UP TO 4FT BTWN 10-20NM IN THE NRN
COASTAL WATERS (NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT) FROM TUE NIGHT
THROUGH THU/THU NIGHT.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.