Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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383
FXUS61 KAKQ 241710
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1210 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure lifts northeast just off the New England coast
today into Wednesday morning. A ridge of high pressure will
build into the area tonight, then slides off the coast during
Wednesday. A cold front crosses the region Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Latest GOES water vapor imagery centers upper level low
pressure offshore of the Delmarva, with shortwave ridging
visible from the Gulf of Mexico northward into the middle
Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, ~987mb low pressure
has located offshore of the New Jersey coast. Brunt of the
precipitation associated with the upper/surface low has pushed
offshore, but some light wrap around precipitation still visible
over the Delmarva. Expect any lingering light rain to push
offshore through late morning. The upper and surface low lift
along the Northeast coast today as the upper level ridge
amplifies over the Midwest ahead of another trough over the
Intermountain West. A band of frontogenetic forcing progged to
push across the region this afternoon as a shear axis lifts over
the region in northwest flow aloft. GFS and some of the hi-res
guidance indicates some light precipitation across the northeast
half of the local area, but a majority of the guidance is dry.
While the NAM is dry, the 295-300K isentropic surface suggests
this scenario. Opted to increase cloud cover over eastern
Virginia this afternoon, but have limited slight chance to low
end chance POPs to the Northern Neck and Maryland Eastern Shore.
Any precipitation that does fall will be light, will only a few
hundredths of an inch at best. The upper ridge and surface high
pressure begin to push into the region late today, with drying
northwest flow expected to push cloud cover toward the coast.
Clearing inland.

Based on increasing cloud cover and latest guidance, have opted
to trend temperatures down a degree or two. Latest temperature
trends back this up as temperatures have been slow to warm into
the mid to upper 40`s this morning. Highs today range from the
mid to upper 40`s northeast to mid 50`s southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper/sfc ridge axis builds into the area tngt into Wed
morning, resulting in a clear sky and lows ranging fm the mid
to upper 30s inland, to the lower 40s over extrm SE VA and
coastal NE NC. Ridge axis slides offshore during Wed, as the
next upper trough approaches fm the west. An associated cold
front is progged to reach the central Appalachians late Wed.
Return flow will push highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s
(approaching upper 60s inland). Clouds increase late Wed and
Wed evening ahead of the approaching cold front. Spatial and
timing differences exist, but general model consensus pushes the
front through the region Thu morning. A potent shortwave
accompanies the front along with a narrow band of high
precipitable waters, so now have pops 30-60% with the highest
pops over srn and ern third of the region. Front quickly pushes
offshore Thu aftn, with dry conditions expected area wide
during the aftn. Milder Thu morning with lows in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. Becoming partly to mostly sunny Thu with highs
ranging fm the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A broad trough of low pressure is expected to enter the region
Wednesday night and into Thursday as a surface cold front slides
into the area. Moisture still appears somewhat limited as the front
crosses the region Thursday morning. Continuing to lean closer to a
drier solution with the highest precipitation chances confined to
far southeast portions of the area Thursday morning.

Behind the cold frontal passage Thursday morning, an upper level
trough builds into the eastern half of the US allowing for northwest
flow to dominate the forecast period. Temperatures will return to
more seasonable values by Friday and continue through Monday. Highs
will generally be in the low/mid 40s with lows in the upper 20s to
lower 30s through this period. The positive tilt configuration of
the upper level trough will allow for high pressure to build in from
the south and suppress precipitation chances through Sunday. Models
are hinting at a reinforcing cold front passing through the region
on Monday, but it appears as though moisture will be limited with
this system.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Strong low pressure just off the srn NJ coast will lift
northeast just off the New England coast today into Wed morning.
Expect IFR/MVFR cigs at the TAF sites thru at least this
morning, as the low will be slow to move away to the northeast.
Cigs will lift to VFR by noon today at RIC and ECG, and
gradually improve to VFR cigs at ORF/PHF this aftn or by late
this aftn at SBY. Sctd showers will gradually end fm WSW to ENE
this morning thru this aftn, ending last at SBY. A ridge of high
pressure builds in fm the west this evening/tngt with VFR
conditions taking over.

OUTLOOK...The ridge of high pressure slides acrs the area and
off the coast during Wed. Then, there will be a chance for
showers late Wed night thru Thu morning associated with a cold
front moving acrs the region. Dry conditions expected for Thu
aftn thru Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pres moves slowly NE along the NJ coast to just SW of Cape
Cod by late today. Meanwhile, hi pres begins to build into the
mid-Atlantic region from the NW. The NNW will average 15-25kt
(gusts to 25-30kt) into this afternoon. All headlines (SCAs)
remaining in place. Seas will be slow to subside into tonight
and may not drop below 5 ft until early Wed.

Hi pres gradually builds into the region tonight and slides
offshore Wednesday ahead of a cold front. This cold front
crosses the coast later Wed night into early Thu. Hi pres
builds in from the W Thu night into Fri.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
All coastal flood advisories have expired. No additional
flooding is expected, however, Cambridge will approach minor
flooding (within 0.5ft of minor) for high tide this afternoon.
Water levels will gradually fall over the next few high tide
cycles with an extended period of offshore flow.

Nearshore waves have dropped below 8ft, so the High Surf
Advisory has been cancelled.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ654-656-
     658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SAM
SHORT TERM...SAM/TMG
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ALB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ



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