Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 242343
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
743 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy, cooler and more comfortable airmass through the evening
hours as a narrow surface high builds across the region. However,
isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are
expected Sunday afternoon as another cold front approaches. An even
cooler airmass will be ushered behind the front with below normal
temperatures expected for the start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tonight should remain cooler and less humid despite a few
showers popping up across the Greater Capital District. These
showers will move across the Eastern Catskills into the Mid-
Hudson Valley this evening but should taper off by midnight. So
have adjusted the forecast to include slight chance showers and
freshened up the hourly temps and sky cover. Sent updates to
NDFD and web servers.

Prev Disc...
A brisk, cooler and less humid airmass continues to filter into
the region as dewpoints have dropped back into the 50s for most
areas with diurnally driven cumulus clouds across the terrain
has developed per the GOES 16 experimental satellite imagery.
Lake breeze convergence along the Thruway from ROC-BUF has
resulted in an area of convection, however, this too should
dissipate with the combination of outrunning this low level
convergence and loss of daytime heating before it were to
arrive to our western areas. So a partly sunny remainder of day
with dry conditions as highs should achieve the previous
excellent forecast.

Tonight a narrow ridge settles into the region with a mostly
clear sky expected. This too should allow for winds to decouple
for a diminishing trend as temperatures should settle back to
rather comfortable values for this time of the year with mostly
50s region-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
H2O vapor loop shows a distinct short wave across the State of
Minnesota that will track eastward through Sunday and be in the
vicinity of the Great Lakes in the morning. Meanwhile, mid and
upper level jet core of 70-115kts, respectfully, will be
approaching from the Ohio Valley. The combination of exit region
dynamics along with the approach of the upstream wave and
increasing lapse rates and instability, convection should
quickly develop once the convective temperature is achieved
(around 70F). Previous forecast has an excellent grid forecast
with little changes at this time. Convective parameters are
rather meager with CAPES averaging 300-500 J/KG and Showalter
Index values near 0C. With wet-bulb zero heights less than 10k
feet, would not be surprised to see some hail with the deeper
convective elements.

Convection should diminish with the loss of daytime heating
Sunday evening with a party cloudy to mostly clear skies. Short
wave quickly transverses across the St Lawrence Valley through
the evening hours leaving behind small height rises overnight
which will extend through Monday morning.

The next short wave, currently near Lake Winnipeg, will begin
to sharpen the trough Monday into Monday night. Again scattered
convection is expected to develop with help of instability from
diurnal heating as lapse rates increase between 6.5-7C/km.
However, greater coverage is expected as height falls will
be more dramatic to maintain threat for convection into Monday
night. The chances for thunderstorms should be be tied to
daytime heating once again. With more cloud cover expected
Monday temperatures will be cooler with highs in the mid 60s to
upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A trough from the Great Lakes swings into the Northeast Tuesday with
models showing signs of it becoming negatively as it moves across
the eastern half of the region. The thermal profile will actually be
fairly cool for late June with H850 isotherms ranging 6-8C leaving
us with high temperatures below normal in the low 70s and upper 60s.
The trough`s dynamics are notable and its associated cool pool aloft
should aide in diurnally driven convection. However, 700mb moisture
is lackluster so convection should be isolated to scattered with the
highest POPs placed in the northern CWA.

Temperatures stay cool heading into Tuesday night with lows falling
into the 40s and 50s. An additional shortwave trough (albeit weaker)
may lag behind so have left slight chance POPS for northern areas
Tuesday night. High pressure shifts into the mid - Atlantic with its
northern periphery moving into our region Wednesday. Unfortunately,
the ridging and dry period is brief as another disturbance from the
northern Great Lakes/southern Canada moves into eastward. Its
associated warm front looks to nose into NY/western New England
Thursday but timing is still uncertain. However, the Euro and
Canadian are fairly in line showing the precipitation arriving
during the second half of the day while the GFS the outlier arriving
much quicker. Considering this is Day 6, left a broad brush of
chance POPs for the CWA. While the guidance yesterday suggested the
warm front may get hung up somewhere in the Adirondacks/VT area, the
atmospheric flow upstream is fairly quick and thus should allow the
front to progress through the region.

By Friday we are in the warm sector as southwesterly flow around the
Bermuda high advects warm and humid air back into our region. With
additional shortwaves riding within this warm/humid southwesterly
flow, have kept chance POPs for Friday as well. The system`s cold
front may move into the area Saturday potentially bringing some
relief but again exact timing is uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The sky has cleared and should remain mostly clear through
tonight. There could be some patchy fog around KGFL and KPSF
after 09Z so including BCFG through about 13Z. A scattered
variable broken cloud layer at 5000 feet or higher should
develop mid morning Sunday and some isolated to scattered
showers are possible with a weak reinforcing cold front and some
upper energy Sunday afternoon.

Winds will be west to northwest around 10 knots gusting to
around 15 Kt early this evening. Winds diminish to 5 Kt or less
later this evening and tonight. Winds become west to southwest
at less than 10 Kt Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph expected this afternoon...

A brisk, cooler and less humid air mass continues to filter into
the region. Westerly winds of 10 to 18 mph today with gusts of
25 to 30 mph. Relative humidity value minimums of 35 to 45
percent this afternoon.

Winds will diminish this evening. Winds will be westerly again
Sunday but not as strong at around 10 mph with gusts into the
teens. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
are expected Sunday afternoon as another cold front approaches.
Minimum relative humidity values of 45 to 55 percent are expected
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydrological problems are not anticipated through over the next
several days. A drier, more comfortable airmass continues to
settle into the region. Isolated to scattered showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon as
another cold front approaches. The weather will remain unsettled
early next week as another low pressure system approaches and
moves across the region with chances for convection Monday
afternoon into Tuesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGFL airport observations are coming in and we will continue to
monitor this trend.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM/JVM
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS/JVM
SHORT TERM...IAA/BGM
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...NAS/Thompson/JVM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
EQUIPMENT...



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