Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 282106
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
506 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be muggy tonight after a day of record breaking heat with
another day of hot and humid weather Sunday. The high in place
will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure
system will approach and cross the area bringing showers and
thunderstorms especially Sunday afternoon and night. Some storms
will be capable of producing heavy downpours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Records were broken today, refer to the climate section details.

The ridge has peaked in strength across the today and will begin
to weaken overnight with only subtle height falls. The isolated
convection across the area will dissipate with loss heating. It
will be a muggy night with lows only falling back into the 60s.
The dew points will not much lower than the temperatures and with
light/variable to calm winds some fog will form overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge will weaken with heights occurring Sunday into
Monday as short wave trough moves across the Great Lakes region
and eastern Canada. By Monday evening the flow aloft will be
nearly zonal over the region.

At the surface, a stalled boundary to our north with move southward
as a backdoor front as the heights fall aloft and will provide
focus for convection to develop Sunday. Do not have confidence on
how far south the boundary will make it before lifting back
northward as a warm front Sunday night into Monday and some tropical
moisture from will be drawn northward into the region. Precipitable
water values south and east of the Capital District are forecast
to rise and approach 2 inches. This along with the approach of the
low pressure system`s cold front as the main low passes well to
our north across Quebec showers will be numerous along with
chances for thunderstorms. The better chances for showers with
heavy downpours will be south and east of the Capital District
late Sunday night onto Monday morning. Have locally heavy
rainfall possible in the forecast.

The Storm Prediction have the region under a general thunderstorm
outlook Sunday with an enhanced outlook for Monday with the more
organized forcing.

Sunday will be very warm/hot and humid again however temperatures
are expected to not be as high as today. The record high at Glens
Falls may be challenge, however are expected to fall short for
Albany and Poughkeepsie. Refer to the climate section details
Lower but still above normal temperatures are expected Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A tranquil first half to the extended forecast period will then
transition to a more active second half of the forecast period.
Temperatures will start above average and then cool down to near
average temperatures by the time we go toward the first half of next
weekend.

A upper level ridge of high pressure will build into the region
Tuesday night with a surface high pressure working south out of
Canada. The upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to
amplify poleward and shift eastward as we go toward Thursday night
out ahead of our main weather system for the extended period. With a
light southerly flow and mostly clear skies under the ridge of high
pressure, temperatures are expected to be slightly above average as
we go through the middle of next week.

As we go toward the day on Friday, a cold front will slowly makes
its way east across western New York. Out ahead of the cold front,
some showers are likely as the latest 28/12z model and probabilistic
guidance shows the highest chances of precipitation Friday night
into the day on Saturday. High temperatures for Friday into the
first half of the weekend will cool down closer to average for early
June.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure off the eastern seaboard will keep a warm, humid
southwest flow across the region through Saturday night.

Isolated showers/thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, but
overall areal coverage is expected to be less than Friday, and
should remain confined to higher terrain mainly west and east of the
TAF sites. Have not included any mention of showers/thunderstorms in
TAFs at this time.

For tonight, areas of MVFR due to BR may develop toward and
especially after 06Z/Sunday, particularly at KGFL/KPSF. Some IFR
could occur, especially between 07Z-10Z/Sunday. Conditions improve
to VFR by 13Z Sunday.

Light/variable winds should become southwest to west at 5-10 KT
through this afternoon. Winds should become light/variable once
again this evening and overnight. Winds become south at around 5 kt
Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
It will be muggy tonight after a day of record breaking heat with
another day of hot and humid weather Sunday. The high in place
will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a low pressure
system will approach and cross the area bringing showers and
thunderstorms especially Sunday afternoon and night. Some storms
will be capable of producing heavy downpours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The high in place will weaken over the rest of the weekend and a
low pressure system will approach and cross the area bringing
showers and thunderstorms especially Sunday afternoon and night.

Precipitable water values will be high through the remainder
of the weekend especially Sunday night into Monday when they are
expected to be 1.5 to approaching 2 inches; 175 percent of normal
as tropical moisture is drawn into the region. Thus heavy
downpours would be expected some storms.

Widespread hydrologic issues are not anticipated, however heavy
downpours are expected which would lead to ponding of water and
minor flooding of urban, poor drainage, and low lying areas
particular to the south and east of the Capital District.

Drier weather looks to take hold for the middle of next week as
high pressure builds in. Chances for rain will return late in the
week into the weekend as a low pressure system approaches.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs were broken today

Albany NY...
May 28th...New record set with a high of 93 degrees. Old record
was 91 degrees 1911.
May 29th...93 degrees 1931
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY...
May 28th...New record set with a high of 89 degrees. Old record
was 88 degrees 1988.
May 29th...88 degrees 2012
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY...
May 28th...New record set with a high of 94 degrees. Old record
was 90 degrees 2012.
May 29th...96 degrees 1969
Records date back to 1949, however data is missing from January
1993 through July 2000

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



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