Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 292019
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
419 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BUILDING EAST AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY BUILDING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS...THE THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SOME POINT
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE
START OF SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL MAINLY IN THE
50S...WITH AROUND 50 IN COLDER SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARMING TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH A MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHS SATURDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80. UPPER DYNAMICS AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE AND INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN WITH
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES AND SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...
WHICH WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. UPPER ENERGY
IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF WHICH WILL BE
DRAWN NORTH INTO AND THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...THAT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF SUNSHINE IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HIGHS AROUND 80 TO MID 80S. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
LIKELY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY TOWARD SUNDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WILL
HAVE TO LOOK FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS FOR ISOLATED NUISANCE
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BY MONDAY SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL NOT
COOL DOWN THE REGION BUT DEW POINTS COULD DROP JUST A LITTLE.
STILL...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AGAIN...SUPPORT PERHAPS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE SHOULD BE INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN MONDAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN SOLIDLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE REGION BEING POSITIONED
BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AS A SMALL BUBBLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION AND MOVING EAST PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS
OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND DEWPOINTS
LIKELY WELL INTO THE 60S.

IT APPEARS AS THROUGH WE WILL GET A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION. WHILE IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...WE WILL AT LEAST EXPERIENCE LOWER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOKS TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK...AS A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
WITH DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION
EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF TONIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z SATURDAY...WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT...BECOMING NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL STILL BE
OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 15 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT...AND BECOME SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INCREASES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN A HUMID AIR MASS.

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE PRIOR TO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME. RAINFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN
HOUR FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS






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