Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 292105
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
505 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM DAY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WEATHER
WILL TURN MUCH COOLER WITH A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...ALONG WITH SOME STRATUS CLOUDS SPREADING IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S WITH A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER COMING OVER THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AND HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE RISE
AND THERE WILL INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TRIGGER
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUE
TO HAVE THE REGION IN A "MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS CANADA AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. OTHER FACTORS THAT WOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT ARE WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER IN FAVOR IS STRENGTHENING
850 MB WINDS WHICH WILL BE AT THEIR STRONGEST ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 1.5+ INCHES SO STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HAVE STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
MENTIONED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM ON THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS SOME NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WORK TOGETHER. THIS WILL SLOW THE PROGRESS
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING THREAT FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS RESIDES. WE ARE NOW LOOKING AT WET WEATHER AT LEAST INTO
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH IN THE 60S
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MAINLY GO LOW CHANCE
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. IT WILL BE COOL DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT IN TIME WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 80S AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER
40S TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 18Z SATURDAY. LATER TONIGHT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. AT KPOU/KPSF...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME FOG AND A VFR STRATUS DECK SPREADING NORTHWARD DUE TO
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. ANY MVFR VISIBILITIES AND STRATUS DECK
SHOULD MIX OUT BY 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS KALB...10 KT OR
LESS...BUT THE OTHER TAF SITES WILL GENERALLY HAVE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AT TIMES LATE SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA
SUN-MON AM: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MON AFTN-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WARM DAY SATURDAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE WEATHER
WILL TURN MUCH COOLER WITH A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE BOUNDARY SLOWING ITS
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION AND RESULTING IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
HAVE ADDED MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT IF THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CERTAIN A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
ISSUED.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.