Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 142101
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
401 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FRIGID ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES BEFORE ENDING LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. TEMPS ARE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO...EXCEPT IN THE 10-15
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FOR TONIGHT...WE EXPECT A COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...AND
LIGHT/CALM WINDS TO PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AND A RAPID DECLINE IN TEMPS IMMEDIATELY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE FALLING QUITE RAPIDLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND MAY ACTUALLY RISE SLIGHTLY
THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS...DUE TO INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS...AND A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WIND DEVELOPING.

BASED ON THE EXPECTATION FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS THIS
EVENING...HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY AT LEAST 3-5 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS...WITH WIDESPREAD MIN TEMPS OF -5 TO -15
EXPECTED...EXCEPT LOCALLY -15 TO -20 ACROSS SOME MORE SHELTERED
VALLEYS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...AND SOUTHERN VT.

MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY MONDAY
MORNING...INITIALLY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS...THEN LOWER CLOUDS BY
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
THE 285-295 K SURFACES DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE MID WEST WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALBEIT IN A WEAKENING/SHEARING
FORM. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 1-3 PM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT AND SE CATSKILLS...3-5 PM ACROSS THE CAPITAL
REGION...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...NE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY/SARATOGA REGIONS...THEN 5-7 PM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

SNOWFALL ACCUMS THROUGH 7 PM EST MONDAY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT...AROUND OR UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/SE
CATSKILLS AND NW CT...WHERE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN EARLIER...AND A
COATING TO LESS THAN AN INCH FURTHER N AND NE...AS SNOW WILL BEGIN
LATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND A WINTER STORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT
FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT
AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN
FROM THE SOUTH. THE TRANSITION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES SOUTH WHILE IT
MAY TAKE UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CHANGE OVER TO TAKE PLACE
FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

AS THE STORM LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...MOST OF ANY SNOW AND/OR FROZEN PRECIP WILL
LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS CONSIDERABLY
AND TRANSPORTS WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY
BE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE SNOW COULD CONTINUE WELL
INTO TUESDAY.

GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FA WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FA EXCEPT ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION ICE ACCRETION WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
OCCUR DURING THE EVENING RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST TO
UPPER 20S SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION BELOW FOR
ANY IMPACTS ON STREAMS AND RIVERS. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING IN THE HWO...ESPECIALLY FOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS UNSETTLED...BUT A BRIEF PERIOD
OF TRANQUIL WEATHER RETURNS THU INTO EARLY FRI...AND THEN THE NEXT
NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE ARRIVES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

DECENT CONSENSUS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT
THE CYCLONE WILL PASS WEST OF ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND INTO ERN QUEBEC
TUE NIGHT.  COLD ADVECTION WILL FUNNEL BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.  RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH THE MID AND UPPER
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL TRANSITION RAIN BACK TO SNOWFALL.  THERE
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED QPF LEFT TO UTILIZE FOR SUBSTANTIAL SNOW
ACCUMS...THOUGH 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WRN
DACKS...AND AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE SRN GREENS.  MOST OTHER
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WOULD
HAVE A SLUSHY INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.  LOWS IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME WOULD BE IN THE MID TO U20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE WRN DACKS.

WED-WED NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
H500 UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND OH VALLEY.  FALLING HEIGHTS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD
INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/NW CT...WHERE SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.  THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST OF THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT.  LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...EXCEPT OVER THE
WRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN CATSKILLS WHERE AN INCH OR
SO MAY OCCUR. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE U20S TO M30S OVER THE
MTNS...AND M30S TO L40S OVER THE VALLEYS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS
TO L20S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER NRN HERKIMER AND NRN HAMILTON
COUNTIES.

THU-FRI PM...THE MID AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. NW FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM SE ONTARIO AND SRN QUEBEC THU MORNING....AND THEN DRIFTS OVER
NRN NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH FAIR AND DRY WX.  A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE OH VALLEY AND UPPER MID
ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS INCREASE WITH A SLIGHT CHC/LOW CHC OF SNOW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.  HIGHS ON
THU WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAINLY 20S TO L30S WITH A FEW TEENS
OVER THE SRN DACKS...LOWS WILL TUMBLE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
WITH THE ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN...AND HIGHS ON FRI WILL REBOUND
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH U20S TO U30S.

FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND....THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SLEET
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY SAT.  ANY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMS LOOK LIGHT
AT THIS POINT...AND IT IS DAY 6.  LOWS IN THE 20S FRI NIGHT...ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE LOWER TO M40S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS...AS WE GET
INTO A WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY.  THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING
BACK TO MID TO LATE FEB READINGS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN TO SNOW
SHOWERS.  IMPROVING WX TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BACK IN FROM THE OH VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH GENERALLY SKC FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS WE GO PAST 12Z MONDAY...MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN...FZRA...SLEET.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE COVERAGE ON RIVERS AND LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION
EVENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS
TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. AT LEAST SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS
SNOW...SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN. AS TEMPERATURES WARM BY TUESDAY
MORNING...ANY FROZEN PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN. THE RAIN MAY
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS COULD HAVE AN
IMPACT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE GROUND
WILL BE FULLY FROZEN BY THAT TIME...ALLOWING MUCH OF THE RAIN TO
BE RUNOFF IN AREAS THAT WILL NOT HAVE SNOWPACK.

WITH MODELS TRENDING WARMER FOR TUESDAY...POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN
COMBINED WITH RAPID RUNOFF COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING OF URBAN
AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE DUE TO FROZEN GROUND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THE HWO.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ047-051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NYZ038>043-048>050-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...11/JPV
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...LFM
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.