Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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051
FXUS61 KALY 041426
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
926 AM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region today resulting in
partly to mostly sunny conditions. However, this will be short
lived as a warm front lifts northward tonight into Monday. Most of
the precipitation from this system will fall in the form of light
snow with several inches of accumulation possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 926 AM EST...The 12Z KALY sounding continue to show
moisture trapped beneath an inversion around 850 hpa is allowing
for widespread stratocu clouds over the region. IR satellite
imagery shows the bulk of the clouds are north of the mid-Hudson
Valley and NW CT, with most areas still overcast from Albany
northward.

As weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure builds into
the region, some more breaks of sun will be possible by later this
morning and into the early afternoon, especially for valley areas,
with continued dry conditions. However, increasing high clouds are
expected later during the afternoon as the ridge of high pressure
moves eastward across New England and a storm system starts to
approach from the Great Lakes.

High temps today will be seasonably chilly. Most areas will see
highs in the 30s, although high terrain areas of the southern
Green Mountains and Adirondacks will only reach the upper 20s.
With the high pressure nearby, winds will be lighter than
yesterday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For tonight...Clouds will lower and thicken this evening with snow
breaking out from southwest to northeast later this evening
through around 2 AM. The snow will become steady late tonight as
the warm front moves into western New York. By morning expect
accumulations to range from a few tenths of an inch across the
southern Green Mountains to 1.5 to nearly 2 inches from the
western Adirondacks south to the eastern Catskills. Lows overnight
will be in the upper teens to upper 20s.

On Monday...Expect the snow to continue tapering off during the
afternoon from southwest to northeast. The snow will likely change
to some rain before ending in the Hudson and Housatonic Valleys.
By the time the snow ends, total snowfall accumulations will
range from around an inch in the mid Hudson Valley to 3 to 4
inches across parts of the western Mohawk Valley. Most locations
will be in the 1 to 3 inch range. Highs on Monday will be in the
lower 30s to lower 40s.

For Monday night...Expect dry conditions as High pressure moves
back across the region. Generally clear skies and cool conditions
will be in place with lows in the 20s.

On Tuesday...Morning sun will quickly give way to increasing
clouds with yet more moisture heading in our direction. Expect
rain or snow to develop during the afternoon from the Mohawk
Valley south in New York and across the Berkshires and Litchfield
hills as a couple of systems track toward our region. The first
system will be lifting northeast from the Tennessee Valley as the
second system will be a cold front heading east from the western
Great Lakes. These two systems are expected to converge on our
region during the mid week period. Little in the way of snowfall
accumulation is expected Tuesday afternoon, except across the
central and southeast Catskills where a half inch to an inch of
accumulation is possible. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 30s
to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Active and unsettled weather much of the week with a turn towards
below normal temperatures as we head into the weekend. Overall
guidance is on agreement with large scale features/systems, however
as it typical for this time frame the differences are with the
individual short waves moving through the flow and their timing,
amplitude and influence on the large scale features. Have taken lead
from the Weather Prediction Center for the timing of systems to
maintain forecast consistency.

A fast moving southern stream system originating in the deep south
near the gulf coast will be approaching from the Ohio Valley Tuesday
night. Guidance continues to indicate this system will have secondary
development along/off the mid-Atlantic coast by early Wednesday morning
as the primary low pressure area starts to weaken as it approaches the
upper Ohio River Valley/western Pennsylvania. precipitation should
overspread the local area with mainly a light snow expected into early
Wednesday morning with accumulations of around an inch or so are possible.
Precipitation chances decrease during the day Wednesday as the secondary low
becomes dominate and moves away from the region. Also as temperatures
rise more a of mix of rain and snow showers is expected.

The forecast is much more uncertain for the rest of the week into the
weekend, however there is an overall agreement for colder and continued
unsettled weather. As the next system evolves there may be an interaction
between southern and northern stream energy. A large stacked low is
expected to be moving gradually eastward to the north of the Great
Lakes in the vicinity of Hudson`s Bay. Guidance indicates there should
be secondary development somewhere over the Northeastern United States
Thursday with deepening of the low as it head off to the northeast as we
head into the weekend. Expecting another round of snow and rain as the system
develops and approaches with a transition to cold and blustery conditions
along with lake effect snow showers on the backside of the system. QPF
amounts are highly uncertain and so is potential snowfall amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cyclonic flow will loss its grip in the area as ridging builds in
from the west at the surface and aloft. The ridge will crest
across the region this evening then quickly shift off to the east
as short wave trough approaches. Clouds cover will continue to
decrease as the ridging builds in with mostly clear skies expected
by afternoon. High and mid level clouds will be on the increase in
the evening ahead of the approaching short wave with clouds quickly
lowering as light snow begins with MVFR-IFR conditions.

Light mainly northwest-north winds today will diminish this evening
with a light southeast flow expected to begin to develop early
Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN...RA...SN.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River levels will continue to slowly recede through the next
several days.

Dry weather is expected today before some light snow falls tonight
into Monday, with more chances for more significant wintry
precipitation towards the middle of the week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/11
NEAR TERM...Frugis/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/11



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