Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 282352
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
752 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TOMORROW WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 703 PM EDT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE FOOTHILLS OF
THE SRN DACKS. A FEW HAVE ALSO REACHED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. WE HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST...AS NONE OF
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TALL ENOUGH FOR LTG. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
HAVE RUN INTO THE MID LEVEL CAP INHIBITING FURTHER CONVECTIVE
GROWTH... AND HENCE HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN APART. THE SHOWERS SHOULD
BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BY 8-9 PM. HOURLY T/TD/RH/APPARENT TRENDS
HAVE BEEN RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THE NEXT FEW HRS.

EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP...ESP IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE EVENING ISOLD SHOWERS.
THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE FOG MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THIS MORNING
DUE TO A SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO DECOUPLING.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 CLOSER
TO THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION. SOME UPPER 50S COULD OCCUR IN
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY EXPERIENCING THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR. THERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS AS TO JUST HOW HOT MAX TEMPS WILL
GET...AS SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST EXTENSIVE PERIODS OF HIGH AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON HOURS FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A LITTLE ABOVE THE MAV/MET MOS...WITH
LOWER/MID 90S FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 85-90 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING DEPTH INCREASES...WITH DEWPOINTS TRENDING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MAX
HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER...IF DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGHER IN VALLEY
AREAS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES ARE POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION...IT APPEARS THAT MID LEVEL
CAPPING SHOULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER MID
LEVELS AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSER.
HOWEVER...CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY SHOWER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN VT.

WED NT...VERY WARM AND HUMID...WITH MIN TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MOST AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE.

THU...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NW
TO SE DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS
SOME SUGGESTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY...AND THAT OUR REGION BECOMES PLACED
CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX
PASSING NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY LATE IN THE DAY. LATEST SREFS
SUGGEST THE GREATEST SB CAPES MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN MA/NW CT
AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT POTENTIALLY
DISPLACED WELL N AND W OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. SO...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ONLY ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HOTTER TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN VALLEYS FROM
ALBANY S AND E SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP MORE SLOWLY.

THU NT-FRI...THE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY/WESTERN MA AND NW CT REGION IN THE
EVENING HOURS...WHERE CHC POPS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER AT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS...WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO
THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST VALLEYS...AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POSSIBLE UPSTREAM SMALLER SHORTWAVES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THE GUIDANCE VERY WELL AND COULD TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED...PERHAPS A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE MORE COMFORTABLE AS
WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED POLEWARD OVER NW QUEBEC AND
HUDSON BAY.  THE W/NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE FCST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE ALY FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  ONE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
SE CANADA.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE TN
VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE WEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL BE IN U50S TO L60S OVER MOST
OF THE FCST AREA.  THE GFS/ECMWF/GEFS HAVE A SHORT-WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT INCREASE A SLIGHT CHS TO CHC OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR/CAPITAL REGION NORTH
AND WEST.  THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR WITH THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING/LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NORTH OF THE REGION.  HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO U80S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH ANY ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENDING PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.  IN THE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY H850 TEMPS LOWER BRIEFLY TO +10C
TO +14C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE
IN THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE LOWER VALUES
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  SUNDAY
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY WITH SFC DEWPTS FALLING BACK IN THE 50S...AND
HIGHS PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  MAX TEMPS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAINLY MID AND U80S
IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC
CYCLONE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TRI CITIES SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW FLOW AND
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT FOCUSING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY TIED TO
THE DIURNAL HEATING.  WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHC POPS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...OUR FCST LEANED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE
LATEST ECMWF FOR A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS
IS FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH...AND WOULD HAVE A DRIER
TUESDAY.  QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE.  EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO
BE IN THE M70S TO L80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
MID AND 80S SOUTH AND EAST WITH SOME COOLER READINGS OVER THE MTNS.

OVERALL...TEMPS STILL LOOK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED...BUT NOT
QUITE AS WARM AS THIS WEEK...AND PCPN BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT WHERE
ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW...AND THEN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR MIST/FOG
FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHTLY
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY KEEP ANY MIST ONLY AT MVFR LEVELS AT
KPOU/KALB. THE BEST CHC OF THE MVFR MIST WILL BE BTWN 08Z-13Z AT
THOSE TWO SITES. KGFL/KPSF HAVE A BETTER CHC OF IFR/LIFR
FOG/LOW STRATUS. KPSF MAY GO DOWN QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z...WHILE KGFL COULD BE RIGHT AROUND 06Z. EXPECT
THE FOG OR STRATUS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY BTWN 12Z-14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CU...AND
FEW-SCT CIRRUS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD INHIBIT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM DEVELOPING.

THE WINDS WILL GO CALM BTWN 00Z-02Z TONIGHT...AND WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST AT 5 KTS OR SO LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION LIKELY...THEN FALL INTO THE
40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED AFTERNOON. THE RH SHOULD THEN RECOVER
TO 90-100 PERCENT FOR WED NT.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST BY WED AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL/WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...



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