Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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897
FXUS61 KALY 022220
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
620 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT AND ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER
OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOP FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 620 PM EDT...THE STEADY RAIN HAS LIFTED WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY
IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAL REGION...EXTENDING INTO
THE BERKSHIRES. THIS AREA OF DRIZZLE SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND/OR PATCHY
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

MEANWHILE...AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...A BURST OF SUBSIDENCE...COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK
DOWNSLOPING W/NW WINDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ALSO
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COULD OCCUR IN SOME AREAS BEFORE SUNSET...AS THIS
SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPING PERSIST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING.

AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ACROSS THE MIDWEST
HEADING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. A LOW/MID
LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED AN AREA OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND
CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE/EXPAND NORTHEAST. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
EVENTUALLY OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...FROM THE SE
CATSKILLS INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR N AND W AS THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION AND SOUTHERN
VT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE LATEST HRRRX SUGGESTS THAT A
MORE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RAIN SHIELD SEEMS MORE
LIKELY...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND
RADARS...THIS SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR A MORE
NORTHWARD PUSH TO THE RAIN SHIELD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE CLOSE TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR AND MUCH OF LITCHFIELD CO
CT...WITH ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE UP TO...OR
EVEN POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR.

MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING FROM MOST AREAS FROM SARATOGA
SPRINGS AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH THE STEADIEST RAINFALL
MOST LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS INTO THE CENTRAL BERKSHIRES
AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WAVE IS RATHER PROGRESSIVE...SO
EXPECT THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...LEAVING MOST AREAS GENERALLY DRY
FOR THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE RAIN ENDING...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ESP IN AREAS WHERE A
STEADY RAIN OCCURS IN THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION...WITH A SMALLER POSSIBILITY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS
THE RAIN ENDS EARLIER...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAY BE A BIT GREATER...ESP NORTHERN AREAS.
THEREFORE...FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRANSLATE
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
SO...HAVE INDICATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES MAY BE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO SOME DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS REGION...THEREFORE REDUCING
CHANCES OF STEADY RAIN ON THU. HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO REFINE POPS JUST YET. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S...AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 40S. DAYTIME
HIGHS COULD BE COOLER SHOULD ANY AREAS OF STEADIER RAINFALL
DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRYNESS INTERSPERSED.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND EVEN MILDER READINGS FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S.  A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SUNDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF UP TO ONE
HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH A TENTH TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE AS FAR N AND W AS THE CAPITAL REGION
AND SOUTHERN VT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMTS FROM LAST NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING MAINLY RANGED FROM
ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS DID
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. DESPITE
THESE AMTS...ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ABSORPTION BY GROWING VEGETATION RESULTED IN MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
RIVERS/STREAMS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-90...WITH THE GREATEST AMTS CLOSER TO THE I-84 CORRIDOR. LITTLE
IF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AGAIN...THESE AMTS SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL...IF
ANY IMPACTS ON RIVERS/STREAMS.

MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA



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