Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 261507

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1007 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Issued at 1006 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Weak wave and attendant plume of deeper moisture bringing some
snow showers to eastern upper and the Lake Michigan shoreline
areas of northern lower. Definitely see some minor lake
contribution, with visibilities briefly falling to sub 1 mile
levels in the heavier snow showers. These have remained transient,
keeping any accumulations in check. Above trends expected to
continue through the remainder of the day, with arrival and
passage of that wave spreading the snow shower threat further
inland with time. Still expect some minor lake influences in
favored southwest flow areas, with locally up to two inches of new
snow possible in eastern upper and up through the straits by this
evening. Much less snow expected elsewhere.


.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

...Some light snow and brisk winds...

High Impact Weather Potential...Light snow with minor accumulations
and brisk winds.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface ridge axis continues to build
into the Great Lakes region early this morning. Low level winds are
in the process of backing to the SW in response to the building
ridge. This wind shift combined with building subsidence and drier
low level air have lead to a significant diminish in lingering lake
effect snow shower activity...and a noted shift in focus of
remaining snow showers northward toward the tip of the Mitt and the
Straits area. Further upstream...a weak clipper system currently
over the Arrowhead of Minnesota is making its way eastward toward
Lake Superior...generating an area of light snow within this region.

The clipper system will continue to track eastward along the Lake
Superior shoreline this morning...reaching the Ontario/Quebec border
by early this evening and pushing thru Quebec overnight. Best chance
of accumulating snow will be across Eastern Upper Michigan today and
tonight...with chances of light snow as well as potential
accumulations diminishing further to the south.
snow amounts today and tonight will remain under advisory criteria.
Much of Eastern Upper Michigan will see an inch or two of new snow
today...with generally an inch or less tonight. Northern Lower
Michigan will see less than an inch today and basically a dusting
tonight. SW winds will strengthen to 20 to 30 mph today and then
shift to the west later tonight behind the clipper system. High
temps will generally be in the 30s today...with overnight lows
tonight dropping into the upper teens and lower 20s.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 323 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

...Changeable weather continues...

Monday and Monday night...Weak high pressure is over the region
Monday. This system shifts off to our east Monday night resulting in
a milder southerly flow. Highs ranging from the lower 30s north to
the lower 40s southeast. Lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...Low pressure emerges out of the central
Plains and heads toward the northern Great Lakes. Still question
marks as far as the track but latest guidance (save for the GFS
initially) has lots of mild air advecting into the region from the
south. This would likely lead to a mostly rain solution, though a
period of snow initially is also possible Tuesday. Highs in the
upper 30s to middle 40s and lows in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

...Turning colder with some lake effect...

Wednesday through Saturday...Low pressure heads off to the northeast
with a shot of colder air digging in from the northwest later
Wednesday. So any leftover rain showers Wednesday should mix with or
end as snow showers. Lake effect snow showers then look likely in nw
or nnw flow favored areas for Thursday and Friday as colder air
temporarily takes hold. Milder air then surges back in for Saturday,
possibly leading to warm air advection driven rain or snow showers.
Mild to start Wednesday but with falling temperatures likely
Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will be a few degrees below
average Thursday and Friday before rising to above average once
again Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 621 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Scattered snow showers will redevelop across much of Northern
Lower Michigan today...along with MVFR a weak
clipper system tracks north of Michigan. Brisk winds will also
redevelop...gusting from the SW at 15 to 25 kts.


Issued at 323 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

Winds and waves will strengthen again to SCA criteria today and
tonight as a clipper system tracks just north of Michigan. Some
light snow will accompany this system as well. Conditions will drop
below SCA criteria by Monday as a surface ridge axis builds into the
Western Great Lakes region.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Monday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342-


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