Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 251944
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
344 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly cloudy, light rain showers and cool temperatures will
prevail through the evening as remnants of a surface low
continues to impact the area. High pressure will bring quiet
weather on Wednesday. The next storm system to impact the
region will occur on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
340 PM EDT Update...
Mostly cloudy skies and periodic light rain showers are the main
story today as the upper lvl trough axis is just east of the area
and dry air is slow to move in aloft. By 00Z tonight, the mid-
lvl ridge will start to nudge east and the surface high will
start to have an impact. Dry air is currently being advected at
mid and uppr levels and will eventually dry the low-levels
enough that the activity over the region will stop. By midnight,
the mid-lvl ridge will shift far enough east and the subsidence
from the anti-cyclonic flow aloft will erode part of the cloud
coverage and dense fog is likely to form over the area. Temps
this afternoon feel much more like fall as they are currently in
the low/mid 60s across central NY and mid/uppr 60s across NEPA.
Temps may rise a couple more degrees today but not much more.
Expect temps to fall into the low/mid 50s overnight.

Wednesday will be a nice and dry day as the sfc high pressure
continues to control the weather. The atmos at mid-lvls seems to be
too dry for showers to develop during the afternoon, thus decided to
take the mention of showers out of the forecast. Return flow will
develop over the region Wednesday afternoon and WAA will re-develop.
Thus, cloud coverage will increase over the region. Temps Wed will
rise into the low/mid 70s in the afternoon and fall into the low/mid
60s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
335 pm update...
Main concerns in the short term remain focused on the next storm
system which could potentially impact the region Thursday and Friday.

An upper trough will dig sewd through the Great Lakes into the
Northeast Thursday with an associated surface trough/cold front
sliding across the region. The primary concern will be the location
and intensity of a trailing surface low on the srn flank of the
trough which is currently expected to track ewd along the PA/MD
border. Earlier guidance had the low further to the north..which
placed the swath of heaviest rain across the srn tier of NY and ne
PA. However, the latest models are trending the track to the south,
which keeps the heaviest band south of the Scranton/W-B area.  There
still remains some uncertainty, and there may be some fluctuation
back to the north before Thursday, so we are not out of the woods
yet with respect to the heavy rain potential.

During the day Thursday as the front drops south through the area,
scattered showers and storms are possible. BL CAPE values should be
around 500-1000 J/kg and deep layer shear roughly 25 to 35 kt.
Steepening lapse rates and PWATs around 1-1.25" should make
conditions susceptible for scattered convection. Will need to watch
these storms due to the potential of heavy rain, hail and strong
winds. The front is expected to push through fairly quickly and then
stall out Thursday night to our south. The surface low in the Ohio
valley will track along the path of least resistance and follow the
trough through the mid-Atlantic region...focusing most of the
forcing and deep layer moisture out ahead of and also to the
north/ne of the system. The low is expected to strengthen as it
nears the coast during the day Friday, and even more so when it move
off shore. There is some indication of a deformation zone forming on
the back side of the system, which if the low is further to the
north may hit ne PA or parts of s/sern NY with another round of
heavy rain. Will need to keep an eye on this evolution. A secondary
upper wave rounds the bottom of the trough late Friday/Fri night and
is expected to have enough momentum to kick the sfc low to the n/ne
out of the area.

Rainfall amts with this system are too uncertain to mention at this
time, but the potential for 1-2" or more is not completely out of
the question. There may be locations that only see light rain with
the initial front and scattered convection Thursday and nothing else
all day Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
335 pm update...
Most of the weekend looks dry as heights build behind the departing
system and high pressure at the surface builds in. At this time it
appears the ridge axis shifts to the east by Monday and the next
system starts to drop in across the Great Lakes. Highs this weekend
will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s, with night times lows in the
50s and 60s. Should be a much welcomed and needed break from the
active/wet pattern most of central NY and ne PA has been in for a
while.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Light rain and drizzle will slowly dissipate across the region
as drier air moves in with high pressure. This afternoon flight
conditions will alternate between fuel alternate and MVFR, then
briefly lift to VFR. Tonight`s forecast is tricky. If cloud
coverage scatters out, then dense fog will quickly develop as
plenty of low level moisture exists across the region. If cloud
coverage holds on, fog development may only fall to high end
IFR. Fog is expected to mix out quickly tomorrow afternoon and
southerly winds will prevail at 5 to 10 knots with VFR cigs.

Outlook...

WED...VFR.

Thursday and Friday...Chance of showers-storms with associated
restrictions.

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...KAH



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