Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 262332
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
632 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER OFF THE
EAST COAST. A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED AT 615 PM... SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE NJ
COAST CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING WTIH THE 700
MB BEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF OVER NORTHEAST PA AND SOUTHEAST NY.
PERSISTENT BAND OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF A PERSISTENT SNOW BAND THAT HAS BEEN OVER OUR
CENTRAL COUNTIES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS FORCING WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE PERSISTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST NOW WITH SNOW BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO THE WEST OF THE BAND.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WITHIN THIS BAND HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN THE 7 TO 10
INCH RANGE FROM BRADFORD TO BROOME TO CHENANGO COUNTIES. WITH THIS
BAND NOW MOVING EAST EXPECT SNOW TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY IN INTENSITY
WEST OF I-81 AFTER 7 PM... AND OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY
MIDNIGHT. SNOWFALL WITHIN THE BAND IS STILL PRETTY INTENSE WITH
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION
OF THE STORM ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF
I-81 THIS EVENING WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES THE WEST. BASED ON THIS
OUR CURRENT WARNING CONFIGURATION LOOKS VERY GOOD... WITH WARNINGS
CONTINUING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BRADFORD TO TIOGA TO BROOME
TO CHENANGO COUNTIES FOR UP TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW... AND A STRIPE
OF ADVISORIES FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES JUST TO THE WEST. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO SNOWFALL FORECASTS WITH THIS UPDATE... OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.



4 PM UPDATE... BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF NARROW CSI BAND...AND THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER 2-3 HRS OF +SN UNDERNEATH IT...WE`VE ADDED
BRADFORD PA AND TIOGA NY TO THE WRNG AREA (STORM TOTALS OF
5-10").

3 PM UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...ONGOING WINTER STORM IS
BEHAVING ITSELF...AS A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE IS MOVING NEWD
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

OF PRIMARY CONCERN LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVE HRS IS THE TRACK
OF THE MID-LVL LOW (700 MB)...AND AN ASSOCD BAND OF FGEN
FORCING...FROM CNTRL/NERN PA INTO PTNS OF NY`S SRN TIER...THEN
NEWD FROM THERE. BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA...SPC
MESO-ANALYSES...AND THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT...THE MAIN BAND
OF +SN MAY WELL IMPACT AN AXIS FROM NEAR WILLIAMSPORT...TO
TOWANDA...TO BINGHAMTON...TO NORWICH AND COOPERSTOWN THROUGH AT
LEAST 21-23Z...WITH A GENERAL EWD SHIFT THEREAFTER. ACRS OUR SERN
ZNS...PROXIMITY OF A MID-LVL DRY SLOT MAY CAUSE SNOW TO OCNLLY
DECREASE...BUT IT`S NOT LIKELY TO SHUT DOWN ALTOGETHER UNTIL LTR
THIS EVE...SO ADDITIONAL ACCUMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED EVEN IN
THESE AREAS. ALL IN ALL...CURRENTLY ADVERTISED SNOWFALL TOTALS
STILL LOOK REASONABLE...WITH A GENERAL 6-12" IN THE WRNG
AREA OVER MOST OF NERN PA...THE CATSKILLS...AND SXNS OF THE SUSQ RGN...AND
ROUGHLY 3-6" IN THE ADVISORY RGN...FROM KELM-KITH-KSYR.

BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR DATA...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL TDY...THE
BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER SNOW PULLS OUT FROM W TO E AFTER 01-03Z.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME WEAK MULTI-BANDS TWDS DAYBREAK IN A
310-330 FLOW...THE OVERALL FLOW LOOKS WEAK...AND MOISTURE DEPTHS
WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...SO ACCUMS SHOULD BE VERY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AND THU NGT...A NW FLOW PATN WILL
PREVAIL...WITH LOW-LVL CAA...AND LINGERING BLYR MOISTURE. FOR THE
MOST PART...THIS WILL PRODUCE -SHSN AND FLRYS...AND SMALL ACCUMS.
HOWEVER...A BRIEF PD OF ENHANCEMENT COULD OCCUR LTR THU NGT INTO
FRI MRNG...WHEN A WELL DEFINED NRN STREAM S/WV CROSSES NY/PA. SOME
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FROM THE S/WV AND LK ENHANCEMENT COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY 1-3" IN AN AXIS FROM SRN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA...TO SRN
ONEIDA/MADISON/NRN CHENANGO/NRN OTSEGO.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRI INTO FRI NGT...MAINLY JUST SCTD
-SHSN/FLRYS ARE AGN ANTICIPATED...WITH BACKING LOW-LVL FLOW...AS
SOME WARM ADVECTION BEGINS.

ANOTHER S/WV PASSAGE...ALG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC-850 MB
WARM FRNT FROM THE SW...COULD LEAD TO ADDTNL -SHSN AND SOME LGT
ACCUMS AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY SAT...SPCLY FOR OUR NRN ZNS.

DAILY HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPR
TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM EST UPDATE...
FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH WPC GUIDANCE AND MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MAIN THEME OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL
BEING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SAT NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL HAVE JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA AND A COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AIR TO THE REGION
ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN/AND OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NEW YORK AND
PENNSYLVANIA. A SFC RIDGE WILL THEN START TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON... THUS BRINGING DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION TO FALL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM. THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN INTENSE BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN NY TOWARD THE
AVP TERMINAL WILL CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BETWEEN 2Z AND 5Z, WITH MOST TERMINALS POPPING
BACK UP TO BETWEEN 2SM AND 5SM VISIBILITY ONCE THE BAND MOVES OUT
OR WEAKENS.

A GENERAL LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY MFVR RESTRICTIONS.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009-017-
     018-024-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJP/PCF






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