National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KBGM 060225
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
925 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A BIG
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. MILD WEATHER WILL RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPIATATION ON FRIDAY... THEN TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
ENDING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO SATURDAY... THEN ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
910 PM UPDATE...
OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEAR THE POCONOS UP INTO SULLIVAN
COUNTY NY. WE ARE RECEIVING REPORTS OF SPOTTY DENSE FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER IT IS OBVIOUSLY MOST WIDESPREAD WITHIN
THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG THE HIGH ELEVATIONS.

THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL RUN THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY, AT WHICH
POINT HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING FROM THE SURFACE UP
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO HELP THE VISIBILITY IMPROVE.

740 PM UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE FILLING IN A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST. WILL STICK TO
MAINLY LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH MAY EDGE
QPF AMOUNTS A LITTLE DOWN.

LATEST RAP13 SFC TEMP PROGS SUPPORT THE CURRENT FORECAST OF MID
30S TEMPS POURING DOWN THE FINGER LAKES INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND CORTLAND COUNTY BY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
THE AREA TO WATCH FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET/SNOW PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE MINOR THROUGH 12Z.

330 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF RAIN IS MOVING EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW
YORK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE PENNSYLVANIA / OHIO STATE
LINE AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. TWO
DISTINCT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN
MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN OHIO ACROSS PA AND NY TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT... BUT
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN A LAYER FROM 925 TO NEAR
850 MB LATE TONIGHT... BUT SOME WARM AIR WILL LINGER ABOVE THIS
LAYER THROUGH THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
WILL FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER STEUBEN/YATES AND
SCHUYLER COUNTIES BY AROUND 09Z. THE COLDEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THOSE COUNTIES AND BELIEVE THAT
SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK... THEREFORE AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT AREA
STARTING AT 09Z. FARTHER EAST SOME SLEET MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH THE
RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS BGM BY 12Z BUT NOT
EXPECING ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE MORNING.

MEANWHILE THE FIRST WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY AND PRECPITATION WILL DIMINISH AND PROBABLY
END IN MOST AREAS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
VERY COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS THE SECOND
WAVE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC. AFTER A BREAK FRIDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE
AGAIN EXPAND NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION IN MANY AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A WARM LAYER ABOVE 850 MB AND ALSO MARGINAL TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING NEAR THE SURFACE. THE RESULT WILL BE THAT
MANY AREAS WILL START WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
AS COLD AIR IS DRAWN SOUTH TOWARD THE SURFACE WAVE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING STEADY
PRECIPITATION GOING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT IN MANY AREAS AND THAT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME TO ALLOW FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL
IN MANY AREAS... WITH A BIT LESS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND
ALSO LESS ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY SOUTHWARD WHERE THE CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL WELL INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE
EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO COVER THE TWIN TIERS OF NY AND PA WHERE
SNOW APPROACHING THE 4 INCH THRESHOLD FOR AN ADVISORY APPEARS TO
BE POSSIBLE... AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF ICE COULD ALSO OCCUR PRIOR TO
THE CHANGE-OVER. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS A HIGHLY COMPLEX AND
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SITUATION WITH ANY MINOR CHANGES IN STORM TRACK
RESULTING IN DIFFERENT ICE OR SNOW SCENARIOS.

COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY 12Z SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -15 C SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A FLOW FROM 280-295 DEGREES WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FROM THE SYRACUSE AREA NORTH ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTIES.
HOWEVER DRY AIR AND LOWERING INVERSION LEVELS SHOULD KEEP THIS
PATTERN FROM PERSISTING FOR VERY LONG AND AT THIS POINT SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED A MAJOR EVENT IS NOT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DUE TO SHORT TERM CONCERNS MED RNG FCST BASED HEAVILY ON WPC
GUIDANCE WITH MINOR TWEEKS FOR PSBL LAKE EFFECT MID WEEK. SUNDAY
NGT WILL SEE THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF S/WV`S BRING LOW PRES INTO
THE GTLAKES WITH 2NDRY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE CST. A COMPLEX
WINTER WX SCENARIO...AT THE PRESENT TIME WE ARE GOING TO STAY
FAIRLY GENERIC WITH CAT/LIKELY POPS FOR SN/IP/ZR MIX....BUT SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THE BEST CHC FOR A MIX WILL BE ACRS NE PA...WITH
SNOW DOMINATING THE PCPN TYPE ELSEWHERE SUN NGT. LATER UPDATES WILL
GET MORE SPECIFIC AS TO EXACT PTYPE DETERMINATION. ANY LINGERING
PCPN SHUD BE IN THE FORM OF -SHRA ON MON AS MAXES RISE TO A40. POTNL
FOR LES ACTIVITY IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME....MAIN QUESTION AT
THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LVL FLOW. FOR
NOW INDICATED BEST CHCS ACRS FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPS FROM TUE ON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. FEW POCKETS OF
VFR WILL BE DISAPPEARING AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER OVERNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING THROUGH CENTRAL NY. SCATTERED
LIGHT RA ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S AND EAST TO WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
ARE GUSTING ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN AND MAY GUST A LITTLE BIT AT SYR
BEHIND THE FRONT. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NY TOWARD
MORNING MIXING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WITH LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT IN THE MORNING WITH CIGS BECOMING
BROKEN MVFR WITH SOME AREAS BUMPING UP TO VFR. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KT. MORE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NE PA AND NY SOUTHERN TIER BY LATE AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTH. AREAS COULD SEE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN SNOW AND
SLEET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...IFR/MVFR IN MIXED WINTRY PCPN AND RAIN.

SAT/SAT NGT...SCT MVFR CNTRL NY....PRIMARILY SYR/RME.

SUN...VFR.

SUN NGT/MON...WDSPRD IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND MIXED PCPN.

TUE...SCT MVFR MAINLY SYR/RME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR PAZ040-044-047-
     048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ038-039.
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ024-025-055-056.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ015-022-023.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BMW