Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 211805
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 AM UPDATE...
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL WELL WEST OF OUR AREA, NEAR DETROIT. A
PREFRONTAL TROF OVER WESTERN NY AND PA IS TOUCHING OFF A SCT LINE
OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM NEAR BRADFORD PA UP ACROSS THE EASTERN END
OF LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER LAKE
ONTARIO IN THE PAST HOUR ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY
VALUES. TOUCHED UP OUR FORECAST A BIT TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AN
HOUR OR SO EARLIER IN THE FINGER LAKES. THIS AREA OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN FARTHER EAST WITH THE STRONGER
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THESE EARLY SHOWERSE/CLOUDS IMPACT
SEVERE CHANCES LATER TODAY.

BASED ON MODIFIED KBUF 12Z SOUNDING, IF WE CAN GET SURFACE TEMPS
INTO THE MIDDLE 70S, MLCAPES AROUND 500 OR 600 J/KG MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED WIND THREAT WITH ANY STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT ITSELF. THE HIGHEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF OUR CWA (RIGHT ALONG I-81) AS THIS AREA WILL SEE
THE BEST TIMING FOR INSTABILITY. FARTHER EAST THE TIMING MAY BE
TOO LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE FROPA. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW.


AT 230 AM...SFC ANYLS SHOWED HI PRES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
CST WITH A CDFNT DRAPED ACROSS THE CNTRL GTLAKES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF IMPRSV S/WV`S UPSTREAM...ONE OVER LOWER
ONTARIO MOVG NEWD AND ANOTHER MOVG TWDS LAKE MI WHICH WILL APRCH
THE FCST AREA LATER TDA. INITIAL S/WV IS ASSCD WITH A BAND OF
-SHRA BUT XPCT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY TO PASS NW OF THE FCST
AREA...MAYBE BRUSHING WRN/NW ZONES EARLY THIS MRNG.

BEST 50A HGT FALLS WORK INTO THE FCST AREA 18-00Z AS MAIN TROF
AXIS APRCHS. NAM SHOWS CAPES GNRLY IN THE 500 J/KG RNG TDA WHILE
THE GFS IS MUCH MORE STABLE ACRS CNTRL NY. HOWEVER..THE GFS DOES
SHOW CAPES ARND 500 J/KG LATE TDA AT AVP WHERE LOW LVL THERMAL RDG
AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. NOT A CLEAR CUT SCENARIO TDA...SVR WX
CHECKLIST INDICATED POTNL FOR A FEW BKN LINES WITH ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL BUT NO SIG SVR. RUC SUGGESTS PRE-FNTL TROF WILL BE MOVG
ACRS THE RGN THIS AFTN. BELIEVE THE 00Z NAM12 IS OVERDONE WITH
IT`S DEPICTION OF CONVECTION LATE TDA ACRS CNTRL NY AND LEANED
MORE TWDS THE GFS/LCL WRF/RUC DEPICTION.

LATER TNGT AS FNT PULLS OUT...WRAP-ARND MSTR COMBINED WITH LAKE
INFLUENCES WILL BRING MORE -SHRA TO CNTRL NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CLDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL MON MRNG WITH SCT -SHRA ACRS CNTRL NY.
RIDGING ASSCD WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER OH VLY SHUD ALLOW SOME
IMPRVMNT BY LATE MONDAY....SPCLY ACRS THE SRN TIER AND NE PA.

AFTER THIS TIME HI PRES IS XPCTD TO DOMINATE. A S/WV DROPPING SEWD
INTO QUEBEC ON TUE WILL ALLOW CANADIAN HIGH PRES TO BUILD
SWD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A "BACKDOOR" CDFNTL PSSG TUE NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HEIGHTS
AROUND 588 DM OVER THE CWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE TN
VALLEY BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS MAY INITIATE WILL STAY WELL
SOUTH OF AREA. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BE IN THE VCNTY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS MODIFYING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING PERIOD. A NARROW LINE OFF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. INCLUDED A TWO HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR SHOWERS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z-23Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT
MENTIONED IN TAFS DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. OVERNIGHT
BEHIND BOUNDARY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 04Z-06Z. ON MONDAY, CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVEMENT TO LOW VFR POSSIBLE BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST AFTER FROPA AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN BECOMING GUSTY BY MID
MORNING MONDAY AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS IN
VALLEY FOG PRIMARILY KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





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