Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 101441
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1041 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
RETURN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND IT`S AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO OHIO. THIS TROUGH WILL START
TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AND AS IT SHIFTS EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT A CU DECK TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND BECOME PARTY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO GROW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SUN WILL BE ABLE TO EASILY HEAT UP THE ATMOSPHERE
AS WE HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN
PRESENT TILL LATE EVENING. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS WE
LOSE ENERGY FROM THE SUN AND BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. PLENTY OF LOW
LVL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... THUS
VALLEY FOG SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.

THERE IS AN EVER SO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY AS SOME INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
AND MOISTURE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THAT AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
OUT OF FORECAST ATTM DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE BUT WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR THE SITUATION AND UPDATE POPS IF NEEDED.

TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S THIS MORNING AND BELIEVE THE
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD AND EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPR 70S TO LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MESOSCALE RDGG SLOWLY BRKS DOWN THRU THE PD. SFC HIPRES SLIDES
EAST THRU THE PD AS MOISTURE LURKS JUST TO THE SOUTH IN THE ELY
RETURN FLOW. SO...WHILE THE FCST AREA SEES GNRLY DRY AND SUNNY
CONDS THOSE WHO HAVE CHOSEN VACATIONS IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
CONT TO SEE ELY FLOW AND PCPN. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE PCPN WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA...BUT NOT BY MUCH. SLGT ADJUSTMENT TO
THE HI PSN WLD ALLOW AFTN CONV SHWRS TO BRK OUT...ESP OVER NEPA.

AIR MASS SLOWLY MODIFIES THRU THE SHRT TERM ALLOWING DAYTIME MAXES
TO SLOWLY RISE ABV NRML BY SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND MODEL
TRENDS. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS IS A WHOPPING 3 TO 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL WITH THE 500MB HEIGHTS BY MONDAY EVENING IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AHEAD OF IT...ZONAL FLOW WILL TILT SOUTHWESTERLY AND
BRING IN INCREASING MOISTURE OVER OUR REGION AS WELL AS EMBEDDED
WAVES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE FLOW. THEN SOMETIME ON TUESDAY...COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THUS PERIOD LOOKS BUSY WITH GOOD CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN QUIET
AND QUITE A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY AS 1000-500MB THICKNESSES CRASH
BELOW 560DM OVER OUR REGION...ON PERIPHERY OF LARGE UPPER LOW
SHIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. SOME POTENTIAL OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS MONDAY-TUESDAY WITH SHEAR INCREASING THROUGH THE
COLUMN DUE TO STRENGTHENING FLOW AROUND THE VERY DEEP UPPER LOW.
THIS POSSIBILITY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN COMING DAYS AS DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS...VARIABLE IN DIRECTION EXCEPT WNW TO NW DURING THE DAY AT
KITH-KSYR-KRME. LEFTOVER IFR STRATUS AT KAVP AND VALLEY FOG KELM
WILL SCATTER OUT/LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-13Z...AS WELL AS MVFR VIS MIST
AT KITH...OTHERWISE VFR WITH SCT CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING 5-6 KFT
DURING THE DAY. EXPECTING IFR OR WORSE VALLEY FOG TO REDEVELOP AT
KELM TONIGHT. KITH-KRME COULD ALSO HAVE SOME MVFR MIST.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT PREDAWN VALLEY FOG KELM.

SUN-MON...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA-TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH
NEAR TERM...KAH
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP







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