252
FXUS61 KBGM 160558
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in place through tonight bringing mostly
clear skies and warm, muggy conditions. Very warm and humid
conditions remain in place through Thursday with scattered
showers and thunderstorms starting Wednesday afternoon and
evening. A few storms could produce heavy downpours. It looks to
dry out with lower humidity levels for Friday and Saturday,
along with seasonably warm temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
200 PM Update...

Air quality will be an issue through this evening across CNY as
smoke aloft and haze from Canada slides into the region, thus
an Air Quality Alert has been issued for small particulates
across most of Central NY (except Sullivan county). Otherwise,
skies will be mainly sunny with seasonably warm temperatures
this evening.

Tonight remain mostly clear, warm and muggy as the ridge axis
slides east of the area and SW flow pushes a southern airmass
into the region. Temperatures and dewpoints will be in the mid
to upper 60s once again. There could be some patchy fog around.

Wednesday will remain hot and muggy, with temperatures and
dewpoints a few degrees warmer than Today. Heat indices are
expected to reach advisory criteria for the Finger Lakes,
portions of the Southern Tier and Mohawk Valley. Confidence has
increase, and a Heat Advisory is now in effect for these area
from 11 AM to 8 PM Wednesday. Highs will be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s and with dew points 70 to 75 peak heat indices will
reach well into the 90s over the region.

A strong shortwave is expected to move into the area late Weds
afternoon or early evening, bringing increasing clouds, showers
and t`storms across the region, which could eventually lower
temperatures by the evening, at least for western portions of
the area. There remains uncertainty on exact timing for the
clouds showers and storms to arrive, but the latest guidance is
trending later, mainly after 4-6 PM for most locations.

Model soundings show a very moist atmosphere with long, skinny
CAPE and deep warm cloud depths, leading to storms producing
heavy rain and possible flash flooding. PWATs will reach 1.6 to
1.9 inches by Wednesday evening, along with MLCAPE of 1500-2500
J/kg expected. Bulk shear is fairly light, between 15-25 kts
which should limit severe storm potential. However, with the
high instability a stray stronger or even isolated severe pulse
storm cannot be ruled out. SPC now has the western half of the
area in a Marginal Severe Risk (level 1 of 5). The main potential
with any of these stronger storm will be isolated damaging wind
gusts. DCAPE values on the 12z GFS soundings have increase to
around 1000 J/kg in the late afternoon & evening, and this
indicates the potential for those wind gusts with the storms.

A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding
is present across NEPA Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
With the recent heavy rain over this area Sunday and Monday,
flash flooding will be achieved easier (with lower flash flood
guidance) thus necessitating the Slight Risk. The rest of the
region is under a Marginal Risk where slow moving storms dropping
heavy rain could cause isolated flash flooding issues. At this
time, confidence was not quite high enough on the timing and
location of convection to issue any flood watches, but if
confidence does increase watches may be needed. Scattered
showers and storms continue into Wednesday night along with
mainly cloudy skies and warm, humid conditions. Overnight lows
only dip down into the upper 60s and lower 70s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
200 AM Update...

Zonal flow aloft continues Thursday night as a cold front approaches
the region. This will allow showers to persist into the overnight
period gradually phasing out as drier air filters in. NBM winds were
too low ahead of the front, therefore bumped them up during this
period. Temperatures will range in the low to mid 60s. Winds shift
northwest behind the front with cooler air advecting into the area
by Friday morning. Less humid conditions are expected with highs in
the mid to upper 70s along with dew points in the mid 50s to
low 60s. High pressure should keep conditions dry with mostly
sunny skies. Northwest flow and clear skies continue into Friday
night helping temperatures dip into the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 AM Update...

High pressure holds into Saturday with another dry and mostly sunny
day in store. Although clouds begin to creep into the region
Saturday evening as the next frontal system approaches. Rain
showers and thunderstorms will move through Saturday night into
Sunday. Drier conditions follow on Monday as the front is south
of the area. Weak ridging is in place on Tuesday with the
potential for showers to develop as a few weak waves attempt to
move in. Temperatures this period start off milder with highs
in the mid 70s to low 80s through Monday. Southwesterly flow
returns by Tuesday with temperatures beginning to climb into the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Overnight lows will otherwise range in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected throughout most of this TAF period.
Haze due to wildfire smoke is present over the region and has
reduced visibilities down to around 7 miles at times. Some
guidance has fog at AVP, BGM, and ELM after 06z Wednesday,
which is also supported by model soundings. However, confidence
is low given that the forecasted lows will be above the
crossover temperatures. Ensemble guidance also has less than a
15% chance for fog overnight. To stay consistent with the
previous forecast, tempo groups were used for any mention of
fog. Skies will be mostly clear overnight but sky cover
increases tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next system. There is
a chance for showers and thunderstorms at all terminals
Wednesday afternoon but confidence is too low to include in the
TAFs at this time as coverage looks to be scattered. Winds
become light and variable overnight. Then winds settle out of
the south- southwest late Wednesday morning with sustained
speeds between 5 and 10 kts.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Scattered showers and thunderstorms could
bring occasional restrictions.

Thursday...Restrictions likely with a few rounds of showers and
thunderstorms.

Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Occasional restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NYZ015>018-023>025-036-037-055-056.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BTL