Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 022037
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
437 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THE 4TH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PLENTY OF CLDS ARND THIS AFTN BUT HAS HIPRES BLDS IN WITH SOMEWHAT
DRIER AIR AND WITH THE LOSS OF HTG THIS EVE...SKIES SHD CLR EARLY.
FOG OVRNGT IS A TOUGH CALL WITH DRIER AIR CONTG TO ADVECT IN.
HWVR...LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LGT WINDS THE BNDRY LYR WILL DECPL
ALLOWING FOR VLY FOG TO FORM. ALSO...GND FOG PSBL ELSEWHERE.

FRI SHOWS DRY CONDS AS WE ARE BETWEEN SHRT WVS AND THE OLD SFC
BNDRY IS FURTHER SOUTH. SUPPOSE A FEW VERY LGT SHWRS PSBL OVER THE
XTRM SOUTH BUT WILL LEAVE THEM OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. AFTN
TEMPS REMAIN BLO NRML.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT COMPLICATED WITH WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. THE FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS MAY COME IN LATE FRI NGT ACROSS NE PA AHEAD OF A PAIR
OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING EAST WELL TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL SHORT WAVES
EXITS MIDDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE COMES IN DURING THE EVENING WITH
A BROAD BUT DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WIND FIELDS
ARE WEAK SO LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING. USUAL MODEL
BIASES ON CAPE WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST. BEST NUMBERS OF OVER 1K
OVER THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SAT AFTN AND EVE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED OR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM WITH THE SHOWERS.
NOT A RAIN OUT WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE MORNING TWIN TIERS AND
NEPA THEN MORE SHOWERS EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTN DYING IN THE EVE.
TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT GOOD WITH MOISTURE AND CLOUDS COMING
IN FRI NGT THEN FORCING EARLY BEFORE MUCH INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY MID TO UPPER 70S.

LATE SAT NIGHT DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH.
SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SFC AND ALOFT. SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN SATURDAY. THE HIGH MOVES TO THE COAST SUN NGT BUT STILL DRY
AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 PM THU UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS SLOWER
BRINGING THE NEXT RAIN MAKER TO THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE STARTING
TUESDAY BUT BEST CHANCES NOW WED TO THU. MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT LOOKS UNSETTLED STARTING WED AND GOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. BEFORE THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF COMES IN WARMER
AND MOISTER AIR MOVES NORTHEAST SO HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKELY.

USED  SUPERBLEND AND HPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDS THIS AFTN UNDER THE CU DECK. HIPRES AND DRIER AIR WILL
CLR THE SKIES THIS EVE. FOG A PSBLTY OVRNGT AS THE BNDRY LYR
DECPLS AND TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. IFR PSBL IN ELM...WITH GND FOG
ELSEWHERE AND PERHAPS SOME BREIF MVFR VSBYS. CLRG SKIES RETURN
EARLY FRI WITH VFR CONDS. WINDS REMAIN LGT IN THE WEAK SFC
SYNOPTIC PTRN.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN AND EVE...MAINLY VFR.

SAT...CHANCE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA W MVFR LATE IN THE DAY.

SUN THRU TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...DGM


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