Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 201655
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1155 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift through the region, gradually shifting
showers to mainly north of the area, with drier conditions
especially by later this afternoon through Wednesday morning.
The warm front will usher in near record warmth today through
Wednesday. However, a cold front will bring a return of showers
late Wednesday into Thursday, along with cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1140 am update...
The warm up is on-going this morning with temperatures already
in the 50s and lower 60s. A few pockets of Pike and Sullivan
counties are still in the 40s. Light rain showers linger across
Oneida county late this morning...but should be moving out in
the next couple hours. No significant changes made to the
forecast. Warming temperatures with the potential for patchy fog
again tonight in ne PA and far s-central NY in the Delaware
river basin.

640 AM Update...
With the amount of fog/low stratus across the southeastern
zones, I backed off slightly on highs for today since mixing
down of warm temperatures may be delayed some. Still expecting
to break the daily record at Binghamton airport, but the 65
degree records at Syracuse and Avoca will be harder to achieve.
It will be close. Also, NAMnest and HRRR models are indicating
that a final line of scattered showers will try to pass across
Finger Lakes through Mohawk Valley this afternoon, due to a weak
disturbance zipping through aloft as warm front lifts north.
Adjustments were made to keep at least a chance of showers going
there this afternoon, but as expected before, most additional
rainfall will occur this morning.

Previous discussion...
Record or near record warmth is anticipated for the next couple
of days, which of course will result in significant snowmelt
where it still exists. Rain in Central New York will gradually
shift north of the area later today through tonight, but another
batch of showers is expected Wednesday, mainly in the
afternoon-early evening with a passing cold front.

Main concern is for the potential of localized flooding in
Oneida County due to combination of rain and snowmelt. About a
half inch to one inch of rain has already occurred in the
county, especially the north half. An additional few to several
tenths of an inch are possible today from occasional showers
passing through as the responsible warm front lifts north. Most
additional rain will occur this morning. By itself, the amount
of rain is not much of a problem, but of course there is still
water stored in remaining snowpack, especially in northern
Oneida County where pockets of 1-5 inches of stored water
remain according to NOAA National Operational Hydrologic Remote
Sensing Center modeled snow water equivalent. As warm air surges
northward today through Wednesday, much of this water will be
released to run off into area creeks and streams which will
already be elevated from rainfall. Any ice jams will also need
to be very closely monitored, such as the one on Fish Creek
between Taberg and Sylvan Beach. Possible flooding issues will
be mainly in Northern Oneida County, but the Flood Watch was
expanded to include the county in general. This was to take into
account any waterways that drain from northern Oneida County
into central parts of the county including Fish Creek.

The other issue is locally dense fog especially across the
Poconos- Catskills. Late last evening, we hoisted a Dense Fog
Advisory for Luzerne-Lackawanna-Wayne-Pike-Sullivan-Delaware
counties, as visibilities plummeted in the wake of rainfall
followed by decreasing clouds aloft. South-southeast low level
flow and moisture from earlier rainfall, in many cases over
melting of lingering snowpack, has socked in much of the
Poconos-Catskills with low stratus-fog. Despite strong warm air
advection, it will take until mid morning for better mixing to
break up the fog. Visibility will remain below a quarter mile at
times, so exercise caution especially if driving at higher
elevations such as the PA turnpike through the Pocono Plateau.

Other than the localized flooding and fog issues noted above, the
main story will be very warm temperatures now through
Wednesday. As of 3 AM readings range from mid 30s to upper 40s;
despite how mild that is, it is representative of a skin deep
relatively cool layer that will mix out later today. 850mb
temperatures are already around +10C/50F and will go up a bit
more later today through midday Wednesday. Other than upper 50s
for higher elevations of northern Oneida/Catskill peaks,
widespread 60s are expected for highs both today and Wednesday.
Lower elevations of the Finger Lakes-Central Twin Tiers could
even get near 70 degrees today; and same case for parts of
Northeast PA-Sullivan County NY on Wednesday. Daily record highs
today are 65 degrees set in 1930 for both Syracuse and Avoca (it
will be a close call today) and 58 set in 2016 for Binghamton
airport which our forecast cracks by 3-4 degrees. By the way,
for those paying close attention; the Syracuse and Avoca daily
records for today that were noted here in the AFD last night
were incorrect. Wednesday records are as follows: AVP 67/1953,
SYR 65/1997, and BGM 61/1953. The forecast is within a degree of
all 3 sites for highs Wednesday. A cold front will pass through
in the afternoon to put an end to the near record temperatures,
but it will do so with limited moisture. Rain amounts from
showers are only expected to be around a tenth of an inch or so.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 AM update...
Active weather continues with multiple frontal passages.

Wednesday night cold air advection and showers behind a cold front.
Showers will be isolated to scattered with very low amounts of under
a tenth of an inch. Precip type starts as rain then changes to snow
in NY as temperatures there drop to around 30. The next wave moves
northeast into the area Thursday morning. Precipitation starts as
snow then changes to rain or a mix as temperatures  rise into the
upper 30s to around 40. With this wave being like a warm front there
is a small chance that a wedge of above freezing air aloft could
create sleet or freezing rain Thursday. A better chance of mixed
precipitation will be late Thursday night into Friday morning with a
warm front lifting northeast from the Ohio Valley. Snow, sleet, and
freezing rain amounts will be light.  Low temperatures in the upper
20s and lower 30s before warming into the 40s Friday afternoon. This
system exits Friday night pushing a cold front south of the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
3 am update...
Active weather continues with another areas of precipitation
moving through this period. Temperatures remain above normal but
cool enough for some snow or a mix at times.

Friday night and Saturday will have little precipitation mostly
of isolated rain showers with most temperatures above freezing.
Highs 45 to 50 both Saturday and Sunday. Another batch of
mostly rain moves in Saturday night and lasts into Sunday ahead
of an occluded front that goes through our area late Sunday.
Only slightly cooler Sunday night and Monday as the upper level
ridge holds over the western Atlantic. Lows around freezing
followed by more highs in the 40s. Monday should be dry with
high pressure from the Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Will likely see gusty sw winds at the surface or light surface
winds and LLWS today and tonight. Restrictions tonight look
pretty minor with most terminals remaining at high-end MVFR or
VFR, with the exception of KAVP where least fuel alternate
restrictions/fog and low stratus are expected to redevelop due
to moist low level conditions similar to what has occurred last
night. The leading edge of the cold front will begin to move in
from the west around 16-18Z Wed...so have started introducing a
gradual lowering of ceilings and the mention of non-restricted
rain showers. LLWS should subside as well with the boundary
layer becoming well mixed.

Outlook...
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Chance of
restrictions/rain showers Wednesday afternoon onward. Rain may
mix with snow late Wednesday night- Thursday morning.

Thursday night...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Saturday...Restrictions/rain showers likely,
especially Friday-Friday night. Snow may be mixed in at times
for the NY terminals.

Sunday...Potential flight restrictions in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for NYZ009-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...BJT/MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...BJT/MDP


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