Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 260503
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1203 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front has moved through with rain showers
changing over to snow showers as temperatures cool. Temperatures
will be back to seasonal overnight through Sunday with
scattered snow showers and some lake effect snow east of Lake
Ontario. Temperatures will moderate once again heading into the
new workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
730 PM Update...The cold front has crossed the area with rain
showers changing over to snow showers and the threat of any
severe weather and flash flooding over at this point. The
colder air is coming in just a little quicker than previously
forecast so we have added a little more snow into the grids..up
to a couple slushy inches will be possible tonight, especially
over higher elevation areas in the Catskills. Concern tonight
will be slick roads due to falling temperatures as any wet,
slushy surfaces freeze over. Also, while the threat of Flash
Flooding has ended, the Flood Watch remains in effect for Oneida
County through Sunday due to river rises from the recent rain.
Most affected will be small streams and creeks. A few of the
more sensitive river points farther south such as the
Susquehanna at Conklin and Vestal and the Chenango River at
Sherburne may also reach into minor flood stage by Sunday
morning.


Previous Discussion...Vigorous cold front making
its way through the western Catskills and the Poconos at 4 PM,
will clear the area in about two hours. Until then the threat
for severe weather primarily for damaging winds and flash
flooding continues. This event is being driven by very favorable
winds fields, very moist airmass and strong lift along
boundary. Behind the front light to moderate rain showers will
continue into the early evening hours.

Overnight, upper level trof axis moves through the region and a
much colder westerly flow develops over the area. Scattered
flurries and snow showers are possible later tonight. East of
Lake Ontario T85 drops enough (-12C) for some lake effect snow
showers with a 280 degree low level flow. Will increase pops
across the far northern forecast area into likely/categorical
pops. Moisture is limited and temperatures are marginal so only
light snow accumulations expected. Overnight lows will range in
the middle 20s to lower 30s.

Sunday...Brisk, cool westerly flow will continue over the region
with lake effect snow showers gradually weakening during late
morning into early afternoon. The low level flow will keep the
the activity primarily into northern Onondaga/Madison and
north/central Oneida county. Total snow accumulations will
range from 1 to 3 inches. Rest of the region will remain mostly
cloudy with highs in the lower to middle 30s.

Sunday night will be fairly quiet with surface high pressure off
the mid Atlantic coast. Moderating flow will keep temperatures
steady or rise slightly in the lake plain. Lows will range from
around 30 in the lake plain to middle and upper 20s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure slides off to the east Monday with the flow
shifting to WSW bringing in milder air. Early in the day a few
flurries will still be possible SE of Lake Ontario but otherwise
expect dry conditions with increasing clouds by late day as a
weak wave approaches. Highs will reach well into the 40s.

Monday night into Tuesday, pattern begins to turn more unsettled
as low pressure begins to organize over the central US and
track N/E toward the Great Lakes. Some light warm frontal precip
will be possible as early as Monday night with a better chance
of showers arriving for Tuesday. Some snow or mixed
precipitation will be possible at the onset Monday night into
early Tuesday but this does not look to be significant as
dominant precip type should be rain. By Tuesday afternoon,
temperatures will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Unsettled but mild pattern continues Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a series of disturbances moves through the area. A
cold front will approach the area around the late Wednesday /
early Thursday time frame and can`t rule out there there could
even be some thunderstorms once again along this front...though
at this point confidence not high enough to include in the
gridded forecast. Behind the front, temperature return to more
seasonable levels once again for the end of the week into next
weekend with the chance of some lake effect snow showers.
Utilized the Superblend for this forecast with very little
changes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers will affect the KRME and KSYR terminals
through the first half of Sunday. Visibilities will fluctuate
between 3SM and P6SM, while ceilings bounce between 2000 and
4000 feet.

A few MVFR ceilings are over our terminals at present, but
conditions outside of the lake band should improve to VFR as
the day goes on.

OUTLOOK...

Monday-Tuesday...Possible restrictions in light rain or snow
showers.

Wednesday...Possible restrictions in rain showers.

Thursday...Possible restrictions in light rain or snow
showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for NYZ009-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...PCF/RRM
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...DJP


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