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000
FXUS61 KBGM 310159
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
959 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
10 PM UPDATE...
ALL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT WITH WV HVG MVD INTO WRN SXNS OF CWA AS
OF 02Z. THUS, SHOWERS ARE HEADED EAST WITH THUNDER HVG COME TO AN
END IN THE LAST HR. EXPECT THESE WL EXIT TO THE EAST AND/OR DIE
OFF BY 04Z. SKIES LOOKS TO CLR BRIEFLY IN BTWN WVS POSSIBLY ENUF
TO BRING VLY FOG TO THE REGION AHD OF NEXT APPCHG S/WV. THUS HV
ADDED PATCHY VLY FOG TO GRIDS BTWN 07Z AND 09Z BFR CLDS AND PCPN
MVS BACK IN. NO OTHER CHGS NEEDED OTHER THAN HRLY TWEAKS TO T/TD VALUES.

PREV DISCOS BLO...

725 PM UPDATE...
WV IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED S/WV SKIRTING THRU WRN NY AT
THIS TIME WHICH HAS LED TO SHRA/TSRA OVR THE FINGER LKS EXTENDING
DOWN INTO NRN TIER OF PA. INSTABILITY IS WANING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HTG AS CORES HV DROPPED DOWN BLO 18KFT. DROPPED HRLY TEMP
VALUES IN RAIN-COOLED AIR BUT HV NOT TWEAKED OVRNGT MINS WITH MOST
LOCALES STILL EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE M50S WITH DWPTS STILL RMNG
STEADY IN THE 50S.

NEXT WV CURRENTLY MVG INTO NRN LWR MICHIGAN STILL ON TRACK TO DROP
INTO CNTRL GREAT LKS AFT 09Z THIS MRNG LDNG TO SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER AFT THIS TIME. CURRENT GRIDS HV THIS WELL IN HAND
WITH POPS LOOKING LKLY THRU AT LEAST NOON. NO CHGS MADE BYND THIS
TIME AS ANY LITTLE BNDRY LEFT OVR FM CONVECTION MAY BE ENUF TO
FIRE ADDNL STORMS DRG THE AFTN DUE TO DIURNAL HTG.

450 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS TO GO LKLY ACRS FINGER LKS, SPREADING EAST OVR THE
NEXT SVRL HRS. THIS IS ALL IN ASSOC WITH WV DROPPING INTO WNY AT
THIS TIME. MLCAPES LOOK MEAGER ARND 500 J/KG IN THESE AREAS. FRZG
LVLS UP ARND 10KFT, THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR THIS AFTN THO SOME
STORMS MAY FLIRT WITH SMALL HAIL AND WL BEAR WATCHING RADAR FOR
THE NEXT SVRL HRS. GRIDS HV ALREADY BEEN SENT.

4 PM UPDATE...
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW SHRA WORKING E-NE INTO THE FINGER
LAKES REGION...CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND INTO BRADFORD
COUNTY PA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTS TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
WORKING EWRD INTO NY AND PA FOR THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS COINCIDING
WITH THE TIME OF MAXIMUM HEATING...PROVIDING SOME MODEST COOLING
ALOFT TO ENHANCE SOME INSTABILITY. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF BETWEEN 250 AND 500 J/KG MAINLY W OF I-81.
MODELS GENERALLY ARE SHOWING MIXED LAYER CAPES THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH WEAK TO MODEST SHEAR PROFILES. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SVR WEATHER GIVEN LACK OF STRG SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY BUT WILL BE ADDING TSRA TO GRIDS AS 12Z GUIDC IS MORE
UNSTBL THAN 06Z AND 00Z GUIDC OF LAST NIGHT. THERE REALLY ISN`T
MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION EITHER AND I BELIEVE IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY UNORGANIZED ALSO LIMITING ANY SVR THREAT. ALL THE
ACVTY WILL WIND DOWN LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TO THE EAST. I USED WFO BGM/S LOCAL WRF 4KM VERSION FOR
TIMING OF PRECIP WHICH LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET. I ALSO BLENDED WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS FORECAST. SO WILL HAVE
CHC POPS FOR SHRA AND WILL ADD TSRA SHORTLY.

FOR TONIGHT...SHRA AND TSRA WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AND ALSO WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO THE EAST. THEN ANOTHER SHRT WAVE...
PRESENTLY SEEN WELL IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HEADING SOUTHWARD
TWD LAKE SUPERIOR... WILL CROSS NY AND PA THU MORNING. I EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE ADDTNL SHRA AND EVEN SOME TSRA WITH THIS
FEATURE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INSTABILITY TOO. THE WAVE
WILL PASS EAST BY AFTERNOON...THE TIME OF MAX HEATING SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF INTENSE STORMS. CAPES
LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT BEST 500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG THU AM
BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FOCUSING LL BNDRY IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS A HARD TIME GOING GIVEN THE LACK
OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY. STILL WILL HAVE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA
FOCUSING ON THE MORNING...LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON THU.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. DEEP SSW FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE NORTH-
NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON LOWERING TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO RANGE
FROM 500-1000 J/KG BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS... BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST FOR ANY SEVERE WX AND GIVEN THAT WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR
LIFT WILL BE WEAK NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 80
AND LOWS CLOSE TO 60.

THE PATTERN MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE ON SUNDAY AS MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FORCING WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HAVE POPS INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY INCREASED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON SUNDAY... WHILE CAPE
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE GENERALLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT A FEW ISOLATED
SEVERE CELLS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY GIVEN SOME FORCING BUT A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED AND NOTHING WILL BE ADDED TO THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE SEVERAL MONTH
TREND OF A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. AT THIS POINT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE DE-AMPLIFIED WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS CROSSING THE AREA. AS A RESULT WE EXPECT
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 60.
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...
GENERALLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
COMPLICATED SET OF TAFS...WITH REMAINS OF CONVECTION EARLY ON FOR
MANY TERMINALS...FOG LATER TONIGHT FOR AT LEAST KELM AND POSSIBLY
OTHERS...AND THEN A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH ROUGHLY 12Z-
16Z WITH AT LEAST SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDER. TEMPORARY NORTHWEST
WIND SHIFT AND RESTRICTIONS KRME-KSYR-KITH-KBGM AND THEN
KAVP...OTHERWISE LIGHT S TO SW WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF
LOCALIZED ESE WIND KRME. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A GAP IN
CLOUD COVER DURING PREDAWN HOURS OF THURSDAY MORNING...TO ALLOW
VALLEY FOG FORMATION KELM INCLUDING TIMES OF IFR VIS 08Z-12Z. AT
LEAST MVFR FIGURED LATE TONIGHT KRME...IFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THEN 12Z-16Z...A ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH NEXT UPPER WAVE
THAT AS OF 00Z IS CURRENTLY DROPPING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. HANDLED VIA TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR
MOST TERMINALS AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
DESPITE MORNING TIMING...WAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH TO WHERE CB WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SHOWERS. FOR NOW TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE CB IN TAFS...BUT CB MAY BE ADDED IN LATER TAF SETS IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS ALSO TO VEER SW TO W AROUND 10 KTS WITH
WAVE PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED CB POSSIBLE SIMPLY DUE TO INSTABILITY OF DAYTIME HEATING
BUT THE WAVE WILL HAVE EXITED AND SO NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...

THU NGT-MON...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...POSSIBLE VALLEY FOG
EARLY EACH MORNING FOR KELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVN
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MDP