Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 200157
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
957 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER LATE, TONIGHT WILL BE DRY ACROSS
THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL BRING THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NEW YORK STATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS THIS EVE. RADAR PPINE AND LOW LEVELS HAVE STABILIZED.
LITTLE OTHER CHANGE.

730 PM UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES. BUMPED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
GETTING INTO THE 80S. SHOWERS STRUGGLING. ONLY A VERY FEW AND
MOVING SLOWLY. AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT. TOPS TO FREEZING LEVEL SO
NO THUNDER IN THEM. REMOVED THUNDER FROM GRIDS. VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT SO ADDED.

300 PM UPDATE...
A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS NEAR 80 AND A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUN. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES WHERE A
STRIPE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE.
DESPITE NOTHING ON RADAR NOW, I MAINTAINED A 20% CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED STORM OR SHOWER IN THE FINGER LAKES/WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS IS BASED ON SBCAPES NOW AROUND 500
J/KG IN THIS AREA, ALONG WITH CLOUDS ALREADY PRESENT AND THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INSISTING ON SOMETHING POPPING UP. MOST
WILL REMAIN DRY. OVERALL A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WITH AT LEAST A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FROM TIME TO TIME, WE
WON`T BE NEARLY AS CHILLY AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL FOCUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW
AND WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. AS
THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST, WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE MORE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY RAIN. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE FROM THE NY/PA LINE NORTH, AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL NY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. 12Z NAM
AND GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY DURING THIS PERIOD
OVER NY STATE. IN ADDITION AN AREA OF HIGHER PWATS (PRECIPITABLE
WATER) IS MOVING IN LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERALL WE ARE NOT TALKING A WIDESPREAD CONCERN BUT GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH PWATS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, I PUT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN INTO THE HWO FOR MOST OF NY.

AS UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO FILL IN AND WEAKEN, SHOWER CHANCES
DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SAME PTRN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER CONTS WITH A
TROF OVER NEW ENG AND RDGG TO THE WEST. NEARLY STATIONARY WRM FNT
BNDRY OVER WRN NY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONV...AND KEEP CHANCE
OR SLGT CHANCE OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE PD. LL SELY FLOW WILL
KEEP COOLER AIR IN THE AREA AND AFTN TEMPS ESP BLO NRML. UPR LOW
SLOWLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENG CST ALLOWING A SLOW RETROGRADE OF
THE UPR RDG. THIS IN TURN SHD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DRYING AND IMPRVG
WX SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

HPC GUID SEEMED RSNBL AND WAS FLWD THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT WITH JUST LEFTOVER FEW-
SCT CUMULUS THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING ELM TO DROP
TO IFR ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 08Z WITH BGM AND ITH ALSO LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A TIME THROUGH 13Z. BKN VFR
DECK BY MID-MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
INTO AFTER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE TSRA BUT
TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC TERMINAL AND A SPECIFIC TIME FOR
LIKELIHOOD.

WINDS LGT OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SSE AROUND 5KTS BY
MID-MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTN-SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTN SHRA/TSRA...AND
LGT OVRNGT FOG/ST.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/TAC
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/TAC
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...PVN





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