Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 021145
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN TONIGHT GIVING US ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. A
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NW FLOW DVLPG ATTM BHD THE SFC TROF AND IS PUSHING THE REMAINS OF
THE LGT SNOW EAST OF THE AREA. WNW FLOW CONTS THRU THE DAY AND
DVLPS SOME WEAK LE...ESP OFF THE ERN END OF ONTARIO. BST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW IS XPCTD TO STAY NORTH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH
LGT SNOW SHWRS SCROSS ONONDAGA AND ONEIDA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY.

CAA NOT ALL THAT IMPRSV AND WITH AT LEAST SOME HTG FROM PARTIAL
MARCH SUN...TEMPS SHD REBOUND NICELY WITH SOME OF THE METRO AREAS
AND DEEPER VLYS NEAR FRZG FOR HI/S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES OVHD TNGT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TUMBLE...ESP EARLY UNDER CLR
MAINLY CLR SKIES. A FEW HIGH CLDS WILL MVE IN TWRD DAWN.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ADVANCE OF THE PCPN SHIELD TUE AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APRCHS. XPCT SNOW TO BRK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 18Z.
XPCT A PRETTY GOOD SNOW BURST AS IT ARRIVES IN THE VERY STRONG
WAA PTRN BRINGING A SLUG OF GULF MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE COLD AIR
IN PLACE OVER THE FCST AREA.

CONTD STRONG WAA TUE NGT BRINGS MORE LIFT AND MOISTURE...BUT ALSO A
VERY WRM LYR AT AND ABV H8. BLO...VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN PLACE BY
THE TERRAIN AND COLD AND SNOWY SFC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PD OF IP
AND EVENTUALLY FRZG RAIN INTO EARLY WED.

FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY AFT ARND 09Z ENDING THE WAA AND LIMITING
THE LIFT. AS A RESULT...PCPN SHD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AND SNDG
COOLS. BY 12Z THERE/S STILL AND ELEVATED WRM LYR...BUT PCPN WILL
BE SPOTTY. NAM SEEMS TO BE THE WARMEST OF THE MODELS BUT MODELS
MAY BE UNDER ESTIMATING THE TENACITY OF THE COLD AIR...ESP EAST OF
I81 AND OVER THE NRN ZONES. THOSE AREAS MAY NOT SEE 32F THRU THE
NGT.

AFT SUNRISE WED...DESPITE THE WEAK CAA...MIXING AND LIMTED SUNSHINE
SHD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 3OS LVG SOME SCT RAIN AND SNOW
SHWRS.

FNT STALLS SE OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THU AND WV MVG NEWRD LOOKS TO
SPREAD PCPN BACK INTO THE AREA. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST
PCPN WILL STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE/S THE
CHANCE OF SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ONCE AGAIN OVER NEPA AND IN THE
SRN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

LE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON THURS
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE TAKES IT GRIP OVER THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THURS NIGHT. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND MAYBE JUST
HOLD ON ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ON
SAT NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPR LVL WAVE PASSES BY...CHANCES ARE SLIM SO
KEPT 20 POPS.

TEMPS SLOWLY RISE TOWARDS SEASONAL NORM VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHEST AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE AT KSYR WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW PRODUCING IFR VSBYS AND BELOW ALT MINS THROUGH 20Z. BEYOND
THAT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY ENDS TOWARD 03Z. AT
KRME WE MAY APPROACH IFR VSBYS BRIEFLY THROUGH MID MORNING BUT THE
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MORE PERSISTENT SNOWS JUST, JUST
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL.

AT KBGM AND KAVP AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS PRODUCING BRIEF IFR VSBYS THIS MORNING IN VERY LIGHT
SNOW. WE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ALT MINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING AT KELM, BUT
TEND TO HANG ON ELSEWHERE THROUGH AFTERNOON. VFR BY EARLY TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT...TO PERHAPS A PD OF RAIN BY EARLY WED.

THU-FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SNOW SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN





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