Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 231103
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
703 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...FULL SUNSHINE WILL GET
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S RANGE FOR HIGHS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY THUNDER
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY 70S FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY...AND THEN 80S MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
700 AM EDT UPDATE...
THE LOW AT NWS BINGHAMTON WAS 32 DEGREES...1 AWAY FROM THE DAILY
RECORD. SEVERAL LOCATIONS REACHED FREEZING OR EVEN UPPER
20S...INCLUDING ITHACA...CORTLAND...AND NORWICH. WITH THE SUN UP
NOW...TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING THEIR REBOUND. COLDEST SPOT IN OUR
AREA THAT WE ARE AWARE OF SO FAR...IS LEONARDSVILLE OF MADISON
COUNTY WHERE A TRAINED SPOTTER HAS REPORTED 24 DEGREES FOR A LOW.
GENERALLY SPEAKING...MOST OF THE FREEZE WARNING COUNTIES GOT ABOUT
AS COLD AS HAD BEEN EXPECTED...MEANWHILE...WYOMING VALLEY OF PA
HAS FAIRED PRETTY WELL...INCLUDING AVOCA STAYING IN THE LOW 40S
OVERNIGHT. ALSO...PENN YAN JUST BARELY GOT INTO THE UPPER 30S.
METRO SYRACUSE ALSO STAYED A WAYS ABOVE FREEZING. FROST-FREEZE
HEADLINES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW UNTIL 9 AM EDT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MOVING FROM LAKE ERIE INTO
WESTERN PA...SO THERE HAS STILL QUITE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER OUR REGION MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS STAYED UP THE FIRST HALF
OF THE NIGHT BUT ARE FINALLY DECOUPLING ESPECIALLY THE MORE
SHELTERED DEEPER CUT VALLEYS. CORTLAND-ITHACA-NORWICH-ONEONTA ARE
CALM RIGHT NOW...AND ITHACA-NORWICH HAVE EVEN HIT FREEZING PRIOR
TO 4 AM. MOST COOLING HAD BEEN SIMPLY AIR MASS RELATED EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT...BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS NOW MORE INTO PLAY THE LAST
FEW HOURS OF THE NIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND WINDS
HAVE DECOUPLED. ON AVERAGE IT APPEARS LOWS WILL END A DEGREE OR
TWO MILDER THAN PRIOR THINKING...AND REGARDING FROST- FREEZE THAT
IS AN IMPORTANT COUPLE OF DEGREES IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH VEGETATION
DAMAGE MAY BE INCURRED. THE OTHER FACTOR...IS THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN 25-30 RANGE. THIS MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT
COVERAGE OF FROST FOR AREAS THAT DO NOT ACTUALLY REACH ALL THE WAY
TO FREEZING /THOUGH ROOFTOPS AND CARTOPS AS USUAL WILL BE MORE
FROST-PRONE/. FROST-FREEZE HEADLINES REMAIN UP ON A COUNTY
SCALE...BUT FOR SOME POCKETS SUCH AS SYRACUSE METRO IN NY AND
WYOMING VALLEY IN PA...FROST WILL BE QUITE PATCHY IN NATURE AND
MISS SOME AREAS.

FULL SUNSHINE TODAY. FOR HIGHS I WENT A TOUCH ABOVE BLENDED
GUIDANCE...SINCE THIS SET UP /DRY AIR ABOVE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
FROM BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE/ OFTEN LEADS TO THE MODELS NOT BEING
QUITE DRY ENOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS NOR HIGH ENOUGH WITH
TEMPERATURES...THAT IS NOT WIDE ENOUGH WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.
SO AFTER THE CHILLY START...EXPECTING UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR
HIGHS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINS TONIGHT...WITH CENTER OF
SURFACE HIGH ALREADY SHOOTING OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST...AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINNING. SOME OF OUR COLDEST POCKETS SUCH AS THE
CHEMUNG RIVER VALLEY COULD SNEAK INTO UPPER 30S...BUT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTING LOWS IN 40-45 RANGE. THOUGH CENTRAL NY COULD
GET SKIMMED BY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS...A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS MORE FULLY REALIZED SUNDAY...IN THE FORM
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...A GOOD 10-14 DEGREES UP FROM
SATURDAY. THOUGH HIGH THIN CLOUDS WILL START INCREASING FROM THE
WEST LATE IN THE DAY...OVERALL STILL PLENTY OF SUN WITH A WARMING
WIND FROM THE WSW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
BACKING OFF ON PRECIP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. RIDGING LOOKS
TO HOLD PRETTY STRONG OVER THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD SO EVEN AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH BEST MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOOKS
TO NOW BE MAINLY N/W OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFOR, HAVE SCALED
BACK POPS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS LIGHT SW FLOW AND WAA
SET UP OVER THE AREA. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE LAKE PLAIN BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S. MEMORIAL DAY NOW SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND
MAINLY DRY DAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS OVER NE PA THROUGH THE
TWIN TIERS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FARTHER NORTH WHERE
WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO 14C +, FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
HOWEVER DEW POINTS STILL WON`T BE TOO HIGH JUST YET...GENERALLY IN
THE 50S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT, DEW POINTS CREEP UP TO NEAR 60 AS WARM, MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL CAP LOWS OFF FROM DROPPING
BELOW THE LOW TO MID 60S. THERE WILL BE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS AS DAYTIME STORMS FROM OHIO AND S ONTARIO DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FNT FNLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA MON NGT LVG WRM AND HUMID AIR
OVER THE REGION. SW FLOW SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE MOISTURE
WHILE DAYTIME HTG HELPS DVLP LIFT SO DESPITE BEING UNDER HIPRES
THE RISK OF SHWRS AND TRWS WILL CONT INTO THE XTNDD PD.

REALLY LTL CHG THRU THE PD AS THE FNT OVER THE MIDWEST TRUDGES
VERY SLOWLY EAST. UPR RDG IN THE WRN ATLANTIC STUBBORNLY RESISTS
THE FNT AND SLOWLY WEAKENS AND SHUNTS IT OFF TO THE NW. SO...
CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS CONTS INTO THU... WITH THE BETTER CHANCE
OVER THE WEST AND NRN ZONES. WHILE CONTG ABV NRML...TEMPS WILL
TEND TO FALL LTR IN THE PD AS A SLOW INCRS IN CLDS AND MOISTURE
WILL LIMT HTG.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...AND AIR MASS IS TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG EVEN IN KELM. VARIABLE OR LIGHT NW
WIND EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BACK MORE WESTERLY AT ABOUT 7-11
KTS DURING THE DAY...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SW TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...VFR.

MON NIGHT-WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/DAYTIME TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ038>040-043.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ044-047-048-
     072.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-017-018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ015-016.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...PCF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...MDP



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