Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 042337
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
737 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DIE DOWN THIS EVENING, THE REST OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS RAIN-FREE, WITH SUMMERTIME WARMTH. THIS
IS ALL COURTESY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, COVERING MUCH OF
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
345 PM UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST PA, AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NY`S
SOUTHERN TIER. AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE (MIXED-LAYER CAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG) AND THE PRESENCE OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ARE
THE CULPRITS. HOWEVER, AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET, ANY RESIDUAL
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY, WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

OVERNIGHT, A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE, IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC,
RESULTING IN AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER NORTHEAST PA AND OUR
SOUTHERN NY COUNTIES. FARTHER NORTH, SKIES SHOULD STAY MAINLY
CLEAR, WITH A DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

LOWS BY DAYBREAK SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
4 PM UPDATE...

FINE LATE SUMMERTIME WEATHER SHOULD CHARACTERIZE THE LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKEND FOR CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA, WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SURFACE AND ALOFT IN FIRM CONTROL. DRY WEATHER IS FORESEEN
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ANY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG, GIVING WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 80S
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. IN FACT, THE AIR MASS MAY WARM EVEN A
LITTLE FURTHER ON MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON READINGS PERHAPS MAKING A
RUN AT 90 DEGREES IN SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER URBAN/VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL FLATTEN AS WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THIS FEATURE THAT BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA. THE INITIAL SFC TROF
MOVING INTO THE RIDGE TUE/TUE NIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND WASH OUT
BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA
WED THROUGH THURSDAY. TUE/TUE NIGHT WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC POPS
OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND THE NRN TIER OF PA AS WEAKENING BOUNDARY
PASSES TO OUR NORTH. WED THROUGH THURSDAY WILL ADVERTISE CHC POPS
AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH REGION. FRIDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
ATTM WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA.

TEMPS WILL RUN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WED THEN DROP
BACK TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR SRN TIER AND
MAYBE AVP AFTER MIDNIGHT. SYR/RME COULD FALL TO MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IS DYING BETWEEN ELM AND AVP AND
WILL NOT AFFECT TAF SITES.

A MOIST E/SE FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRATUS ACROSS THE SRN
TERMINALS. BROUGHT CONDITIONS BELOW ALT MINS BETWEEN 06Z- 08Z.
RISING TO AT LEAST MVFR BY 14Z AND VFR BY 16Z.

AT KRME/KSYR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT BUT A 4K
FT VFR CIG. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS AND BOTH SITES MAY FALL TO
MVFR.

SATURDAY MIDDAY AND AFTN VFR WITH SCT FAIR WEATHER CU. ELM MIGHT
BE BROKEN BEING CLOSER TO THE BETTER MOISTURE IN FAR WRN NY AND
CENT/WRN PA.

LIGHT E WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. SHIFTING TO SE AND S
SATURDAY AT 4 TO 8 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING
FOG IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES REGION WITH POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM/TAC


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