Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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436
FXUS63 KBIS 242340
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
640 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Except for a stray sprinkle or flurry over the far north central,
it is expected to be dry this evening. It will be cold and damp
with a brisk north to northeast wind. Updated pops and sky cover
based on latest radar/satellite analysis. Expect cloudy skies
through the night most areas. Updated latest sensible weather
elements and interpolated to mid evening values.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Early this afternoon, the surface low responsible for mixed precip
last night and today was centered near far southeast ND. Precip
continued to move out of our CWA with some lingering light
snow/rain across the north central. Continued to carry light
precip across this region through the early evening, in agreement
with high res models. On larger scale, water vapor imagery and
upper level analysis show deep trough moving inland over the
Pacific Northwest with strong 120kt 300mb jet streak moving
inland. This will support surface low tracking to our south
tonight and Tuesday, with the main impacts to SD. Our far
southwest could be brushed by this system tonight and into
southeastern ND during the day on Tuesday, with low pops currently
in place.

Otherwise, the state remains in a cool northeasterly flow through
Tuesday with extensive cloud cover expected to continue. Forecast
soundings and BUFKIT indicate winds don`t fully decouple
overnight, although winds aloft are not too impressive and
boundary layer winds are only in the 20 to 25 knot range. Highs on
Tuesday will only be in the upper 30s, more than 20 degrees cooler
than normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

A broad trough of low pressure aloft will maintain much cooler
than normal temperatures through most of the week and support a
storm track generally south of our region. Highs on Wednesday and
Thursday will be in the 40s and into the low 50s by
Friday/Saturday. Otherwise, mostly dry weather expected with no
significant impacts expected from weather. Ensemble situational
awareness tool shows some anomalous low heights due to the upper
level trough situated over the CONUS, but otherwise all fields are
near average through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

MVFR to IFR ceilings expected across western and central North
Dakota tonight and through much of the day Tuesday. Ceilings may
begin to break or lift to VFR across the north during the
afternoon north. North to northeast flow will continue through the
forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...TWH



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