Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 192349
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
549 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON IS TO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MCLEAN...SHERIDAN AND WELLS COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEATHER CAMERAS INDICATE
THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS
LAYER FROM DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES SOUTHEAST TO AROUND
GARRISON IN MCLEAN COUNTY AND THEN EAST TOWARD HARVEY IN WELLS
COUNTY. LATEST HRRR MODEL ITERATION SHOWS THE STRATUS EXPANDING
SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING...WHICH LOOKS TO VERIFY FROM LAST FEW
SATELLITE IMAGES. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR SKY COVER AND
POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT FOG ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING
THE  STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH INTO THE JAMES NORTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE A SOLID STRATUS AND FOG LOW LEVEL
SOUNDING FROM WILLISTON THROUGH MINOT WHILE THE GFS MIXES IT OUT
THIS EVENING. WILL LEAN TO THE NAM AND KEEP FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THOUGH THE NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL TONIGHT. FURTHER ISSUES INVOLVE
VSBYS AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE NEAR TIOGA TO STANLEY. DO NOT
SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT THERE AND SHOULD SEE LOWER VSBYS IN MINOT
LATER TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET. WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM
TIOGA TO STANLEY THROUGH 9 PM THEN EXPAND IT EAST THROUGH MINOT
AND TO BOTTINEAU AND MCHENRY COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE FOG WILL ALSO INSULATE A BIT SO HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT NIGHT LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SOME SLEET AND
SNOW BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PAST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST 12 UTC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BACKED THE SYSTEM
UP A BIT...DEVELOPING A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
MONDAY WHICH SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS
BOTH SHOW MORE QPF OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.

VERTICAL PROFILES ALSO LOOK TO BE BETTER MIXED AFTER THE WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THE FRONT
PASSES A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...RAIN...AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHWEST MAY
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW...HOWEVER FOR THE REST OF
THE STATE ALL SNOW IS ANTICIPATED. MONDAY AND TUESDAY PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST AS ALL SNOW AS WELL FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THAT SAID IF MODEL SOLUTIONS PROGRESS THE TROUGH ALONG
QUICKER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PROFILES ALOFT COULD BE TO DRY FOR
ICE CRYSTALS AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA COULD ONCE AGAIN
SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

EARLY ESTIMATES ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RANGE
FROM AROUND 2 INCHES WEST TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR CEILINGS AT KISN AND KMOT TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD IN
PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS. MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE STRATUS LAYER
EXPANDING SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT TO LIKELY INCLUDE BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN BETWEEN 00 AND 03 UTC...AND POSSIBLY KDIK AROUND 06 UTC.
STRATUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THEN DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW TRIES TO TAKE
HOLD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ001-002-009-
010-021>023.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR NDZ003-004-011-012.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH





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