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000
FXUS63 KBIS 310748
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
248 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. A COMPENSATORY
NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WAS CONTINUING
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN
RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN OVER THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...A SUSTAINING CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING THE AREAL
EXTENT AND TIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NAM12/HRRR/RAP13 ARE HANDLING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FAIRLY WELL EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
MONTANA IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH THE DAY IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT MAINLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 EAST
CENTRAL TO 90 WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
55 TO 60.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A NOMINAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH ALL FIELDS WELL WITHIN ONE STANDARD DEVIATION OF
THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO BE IN
AGREEMENT ON DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES PEAKING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW RELATIVE COOL DOWN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...THERE IS A NEAR DAILY
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE LOW PREDICTABILITY SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONING TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT KISN/KDIK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z AND THEN BECOME MORE ISOLATED. VFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH
VCFG AT KJMS THROUGH 13Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
KISN/KDIK/KMOT. DUE TO THE TIMING AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY VCSH/VCTS UNTIL SOMETHING DEVELOPS THAT CAN BE TRACKED TO
IMPACT THE ABOVE MENTIONED TERMINALS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS