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000
FXUS63 KBIS 250319
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1019 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03 UTC AS
STORMS WILL BE PROPAGATING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE STEADILY DECREASED
WITH SUNSET. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 40 MPH...AND
THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY THAT WERE IN EFFECT HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 06 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS HAVE BEEN
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE LINE OF CONVECTION AND OCCLUDING FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MUCH
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THUS...A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 06 UTC FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF GOLDEN
VALLEY...BILLINGS...STARK...SLOPE...BOWMAN...HETTINGER AND ADAMS
COUNTIES UNTIL 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE 20 UTC AND INCOMING 21 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...AND WILL LEAN
HEAVILY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DID COORDINATE WITH SPC AT 2230 UTC REGARDING A
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST. WILL HOLD OFF FOR
NOW AS ALL REPORTS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER...SHOULD
CONVECTION STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES BAKER...A WATCH EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH 03 UTC. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...SEVERE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND 00-01 UTC AS STORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING PROPAGATE
EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSE TO THE 19 UTC HRRR SOLUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO THE WYOMING/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. AT
UPPER LEVELS...STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPEARS
TO BE FOCUSED MORE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...BUT PLENTY OF CAPE
AND SHEAR IN PLACE SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
MID-LEVEL CAP WAS BUILDING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT ISOLATED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 30-35 MPH...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW - BUT NOT SURFACE-BASED.

THE MAIN ACTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
MORE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES. SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...BUT
BEST CAPE IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE BEST SHEAR IS
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH.

EXPECTING BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...AND BEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL FROM MID/LATE
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY WEST WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA...INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN BY 12Z SAT...WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARDS NORTHWESTERN MN. UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WITH THE LOW COUPLED WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
BOTH COMBINE WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH SAT
MORNING...WITH COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTHEAST
DURING THE DAY.

SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MIDWEST.

STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...THEN
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY GIVING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION A DRY WEATHER SPELL. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE RIDGE RIDER S/WVS MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING SOUTHEAST...WILL
SEE SPOTTY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING MID-WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR THE END OF JULY SAT-
MON...IN THE 70S...THEN WARM INTO THE 80S TUE-THURS WITH THE
BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE TAF FORECASTS FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND DETAILS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD