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000
FXUS63 KBIS 250337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

AT 914 PM BISMARCK ASOS SURFACE OBS CHANGED TO RAIN FROM SNOW.
DUAL POLE PRODUCTS SUGGEST MIXED PRECIPITATION RAIN AND SNOW AS
THE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT FALLS BELOW 80 IN A NARROW BAND OVER
BISMARCK. ALTHOUGH RAIN...SEE THE VERY END OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHORTLY AS ITS ONLY A BAND ABOUT 10 MILES WIDE. FOR THIS FORECAST
WILL END THE PRECIPITATION SOONER ACROSS THE CENTRAL. WILL
CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW MOST OF THE NIGHT EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. EMPHASIZED THE EVENING LIGHT SNOW SOUTH
CENTRAL WITH DEFINITE POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDING WEST OF BISMARCK.
BASED ON THIS AND LATEST HRRR RUNS WILL EXTEND THE LIKELY POPS FOR
SNOW WEST THROUGH MORTON COUNTY AND SOUTH TO THE SOUTH  DAKOTA
BORDER. WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 7 PM AS WINDS CONTINUE
TO GUST OVER 40 MPH AT SAND CREEK RAWS AND HETTINGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO PIVOT EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS RESULTED IN ALL SNOW BEING REPORTED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IS GENERATING A NARROW PATCH OF FREEZING RAIN
PRIMARILY OVER JAMESTOWN. AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS NOSES SOUTH...THE
PRECIP TYPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO
ALL SNOW OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY
MORNING...STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MINOT TO STEELE TO ELLENDALE.
AREAS WEST OF SAID LINE SHOULD RECEIVE LESS THAN AN INCH OF NEW SNOW.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL GENERATE DRY AND WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S EAST TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND EVENTUALLY CENTER
ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY. WITH PREDOMINATELY WEST WINDS THIS SETUP
WILL ALLOW FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
ZONAL FLOW SHOULD THEN DEVELOP THURSDAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO
COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW BY THE WEEKEND. UPPER 40S ARE LIKELY ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
50S LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE WEEKEND ARCTIC AIR MAY
MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MVFR TO IFR WILL REMAIN
OVER THE STATE IN ITS WAKE. SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FROM KMOT-KBIS-KJMS THROUGH 06Z THEN SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT
STRATUS AND MVFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA