Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 301730
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RECORD LOWS WERE SHATTERED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING.
MONTGOMERY TIED THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE MONTH OF JULY AT
59 DEGREES. DRY AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THIS MORNINGS 12Z BMX SOUNDING INDICATED 0.62
INCHES OF PW. THIS VALUE IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM PW
VALUE OBSERVED FOR LATE JULY EARLY AUGUST. THE ONLY UPDATE WAS TO
ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
SLIGHTLY.

05/MA


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE
WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.

05/MA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 504 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

BEAUTIFUL NIGHT FOR LATE JULY! CURRENTLY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE STRETCHES DOWN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A STALLED FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...COOLER DRIER AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR MANY RECORDS TO BE
BROKEN FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WITH A LITTLE TO GO BEFORE SUNRISE
STILL EVEN WITH A FEW WISPY HIGH CLOUDS AROUND NOTED ON SATELLITE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAYBE A
DEGREE HIGHER BUT STILL VERY NICE.

BY THURSDAY...STILL LOOKING FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FLORIDA
TO BEGIN TO PUSH BACK INTO ALABAMA AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...MAYBE A LITTLE SLOWER INITIALLY
SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY GOING BACK UP IN AS THE
COOLER FLOW IS CUT OFF WITH WARMEST READINGS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
GREATER CLOUD COVER IN THE WEST/NORTH COULD HELP HOLD OFF SOME OF
THE WARMER READINGS FOR THURSDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW
RETROGRADES AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE INITIALLY OF THE STAGNANT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG FURTHER ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND PULLS OFF THE EASTERN CANADIAN
COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT LEAVES A PIECE
OF ENERGY BEHIND IT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
FOR MONDAY. THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE MOVE
INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITHOUT THE HELP OF THE MAIN TROUGH TO
ENHANCE IT AND THE UPPER OVERALL FLOW BECOMES WEAK. HOWEVER...
THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH AND
IF IT IS SQUEEZED OUT BY THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S....WHICH LEADS TO SOME CONFIDENCE FACTORS FOR POPS.
HAVE TAPERED POPS DOWN SOME. NONETHELESS...STILL ANTICIPATE THAT
WE SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION BACK TO SUMMER TIME DIURNALLY
INFLUENCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

08/MK

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.