Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 031640
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A ANALYSIS OF SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DEPICTS A SURFACE COOL FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...BUT ACTIVITY HAS NOT BEEN FOCUSED ALONG ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT TO SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE
60S. THE SURFACE FRONT IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THOSE AREAS THAT WHERE NO RAIN IS FORECAST. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS...LOW CLOUD DECK IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES NEAR I-85 CORRIDOR
WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL BEGIN TO SEE HIGHER CEILINGS AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE
APPROACH OF MID MORNING AND NOON TIME FRAME AS WINDS PICK UP AND
BEGIN TO MIX IN THE DRY AIR ALOFT. RAIN SHOWERS AND VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD
DURING THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN FOR ALL COUNTIES ONCE THE EVENING BEGINS AND ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS

92


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20.
THE RAIN WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PROVIDE A BRIEF 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-85. WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 635 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/
SHORT TERM...

OVERNIGHT SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
I-85 TO MONTGOMERY AND TOWARDS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE PREVIOUS BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON THE
RADAR IN CALHOUN AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE POSITIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING EASTWARD AS THE
UPPER JET`S MOMENTUM EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD. WITH DAYTIME HEATING ADDED IN THIS SHOULD
REINVIGORATE THE COLD FRONT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAINLY ALONG THE I-85
CORRIDOR AND FURTHER SOUTH. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUT IN
AS WELL... AS A MAINLY MODEST AMOUNT OF CAPE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
IS PRESENT. AS THE EVENING APPROACHES BOTH SHEAR AND CAPE
DECREASES QUICKLY... CHANGING CHANCE OF T-STORMS TO RAIN SHOWERS
AND EVENTUALLY ALLOWING CLEARING CONDITIONS TO BEGIN BY THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. DRY AIR AND A SLIGHT CONVERGENT UPPER JET PATTERN
WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TOMORROW MORNING CALM...

92

LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AS WE WORK INTO WEDNESDAY THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MUCH DRIER
AND COOLER. WITH THAT SAID THOUGH WE WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED A TOUCH AS THIS HAS NOW BEEN 3 RUNS THAT
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS PROGRESSION. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 40 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN ON
THURSDAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     74  49  73  46  68 /  20  10  20  40   0
ANNISTON    73  53  73  47  67 /  20  10  10  40   0
BIRMINGHAM  73  54  73  49  70 /  20  10  10  40   0
TUSCALOOSA  76  52  75  48  72 /  20  10  10  20   0
CALERA      74  54  73  50  70 /  20  10  10  20   0
AUBURN      76  56  73  51  69 /  40  10   0  20   0
MONTGOMERY  78  57  76  52  73 /  40  10  10  10   0
TROY        76  56  76  53  72 /  50  20  10  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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