Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 042336
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
636 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
GET UNDERCUT BY A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS IN THE SOUTHEAST STATES
OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE DAILY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...WHILE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH
RANGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS EASILY JUSTIFIES CONTINUING AT LEAST 30-40 PERCENT POPS
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE BULK OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. THERE`S A POTENTIAL OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WE GET TO FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK (WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THAT FEATURE). SUCH A FRONT WOULD SIGNAL THE LIKELY PEAK OF
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY 12Z. MOIST CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SFC WILL LEAD TO SOME MVFR DUE TO FOG
FROM 09Z THRU 12Z. AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL TRIGGER SCT TO NMRS SHWRS
AND TSTMS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-65 AFTER 19Z...AND INCLUDED VCTS
IN EASTERN TAF SITES.

58/ROSE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD
VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  90  69  86  68 /  10  40  30  40  20
ANNISTON    71  90  70  85  69 /  10  40  30  40  20
BIRMINGHAM  73  93  72  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
TUSCALOOSA  72  96  72  91  71 /  10  20  20  30  20
CALERA      73  92  71  87  71 /  10  40  30  40  20
AUBURN      73  91  70  86  70 /  10  50  30  40  20
MONTGOMERY  73  95  72  90  71 /  10  40  30  40  20
TROY        71  93  71  88  69 /  10  50  30  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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