Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 301947
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
247 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016
Boundary interactions have been the dominate forcing mechanism
today for scattered to widespread storms that have been gathering
across the north. There is now one large outflow that stretches
from Tuscaloosa to Calera to Alexander City. This outflow is
trudging southward while the storms are moving east along the
outflow boundary. Most of this activity will be dissipating after
sunset as we lose the daytime heating. Did add in patchy fog for
the night as most areas will see rain today and will be primed for
low level moisture to be in place.
For tomorrow, the higher than normal rain chances remain in the
forecast. Problem is where will the highest rain chances be.
Models continue to develop showers anywhere across the state. With
that said this outflow boundary will slide south tonight. If it
clears the CWA we may have less convection than models are going
with. However, if it stalls out near the US 80/ I-85 corridor
then the southern counties will see the best chances and scattered
chances may not be high enough.
For next week, we will remain in a fairly active pattern for the
summer. We will begin to warm up a little bit more across the area
each day and begin to approach some heat advisory criteria by
midweek. However, not enough confidence to include in the HWO at
this time, but will need to keep an eye on it. Scattered showers
will remain the normal for the rest of the extended with best
chances dependent on the day before and other mesoscale features,
so went with higher than normal chance pops for the afternoons
18Z TAF Discussion.
Widespread thunderstorms are pushing through BHM and will be
impacting ANB and ASN within the hour. Winds have been behaving
with generally 10 to 20 kts along and ahead of the storms.
Watching another line of storms developing in MS and this will
likely move into the TCL area after 19Z. EET will be in between
the two areas so included VCTS with a tempo after 19Z here as
well. Some patchy fog will be possible after 8Z as well. More of
the same scenario on Sunday.
Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the upper 80s and low/mid 90s.
Surface winds will be less than 10 mph and generally from the
southwest/west through the first of the week. Since surface dew
points are so high, critical fire weather thresholds are not
expected to be met, with no watches or warnings anticipated.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 71 92 71 92 71 / 40 40 30 40 30
Anniston 72 93 72 93 71 / 40 40 30 40 30
Birmingham 75 93 74 93 73 / 40 40 30 40 30
Tuscaloosa 73 94 73 94 74 / 40 40 30 40 30
Calera 73 93 73 93 73 / 40 40 30 50 30
Auburn 73 93 74 93 73 / 30 50 30 50 40
Montgomery 74 95 74 94 74 / 30 50 40 50 40
Troy 72 92 72 92 72 / 40 50 40 50 40