Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 270839
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
339 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016
An upper level shortwave is crossing the Mississippi River this
morning per water vapor imagery. Ahead of this shortwave, a
broken line of light showers is moving across Mississippi, and
unfortunately has decreased significantly in coverage this
morning. A couple showers have developed ahead of the line in
north Alabama, but coverage is sparse and rainfall will not make a
dent in drought conditions. The surface front associated with this
short wave is well back to the northwest, currently in southern
Missouri and Illinois, attached to a surface low moving across the
The shortwave flattens and wind fields weaken as it crosses Alabama
today. Hi-res guidance shows very little development through the
day given low shear parameters and forcing as the shortwave
weakens. Will keep low pops underneath the shortwave axis as it
takes on a more sheared orientation through the day. Do not
expect much rainfall coverage or QPF. Will not carry pops beyond
We do not see a true frontal passage with this system as the
surface front skirts the area with a more west to east motion.
Winds do turn to the west and then north by Friday morning as
surface high pressure moves through the Ohio River Valley behind
the front. No significant cool down with this system, and only
another shot of dry air spreads into the area.
Over the weekend, surface high pressure becomes centered over the
Carolina coast, stretching back toward the northern Gulf Coast, as
upper level ridging stretches across the southern CONUS. This will
keep conditions dry with temperatures in the 80s each day through
the weekend and into next week. Overnight lows will be generally
in the 50s.
The upper level ridge axis will shift eastward across the area by
mid week. Model solutions diverge regarding how upper level wave
pattern evolves, but the potential is there for moisture return
ahead of an approaching shortwave toward the end of next week.
Would not get any hopes up though for appreciable rainfall until
there is better continuity in model solutions.
06Z TAF Discussion.
VFR conditions expected overnight across all TAF sites with winds
increasing to 5-6 kts during the afternoon. MFVR CIGs and VIS
possible in the southeastern counties around 12z, but have kept
CIGs around 4000 ft in the TAFs at TOI and MGM. Could see lower
CIGs and fog, but confidence is too low at this time to include in
TAF. Some residual smoke and haze may linger into the night just
east of Birmingham, but not expected impact KBHM. Radar is showing
a broken line of very light showers moving across the area
tonight. Some VCSH is possible for the northern TAF sites, but
coverage is too limited to mention at any specific terminal.
AMD NOT SKED continues for KASN due to missing observations.
Isolated rain showers are possible mainly along and north of I-20
today, but do not expect significant rainfall coverage or QPF. Dry
and unseasonably warm conditions will return thereafter through
the remainder of the forecast period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 80 54 84 52 86 / 20 10 0 0 0
Anniston 83 56 85 56 86 / 20 10 0 0 0
Birmingham 83 60 86 59 86 / 20 10 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 84 57 87 57 87 / 20 0 0 0 0
Calera 83 59 86 58 87 / 20 0 0 0 0
Auburn 81 59 84 57 85 / 10 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 87 58 88 56 88 / 10 0 0 0 0
Troy 83 56 85 54 86 / 10 0 0 0 0