Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 242313
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
513 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A longwave trough remains positioned to our east along the eastern
seaboard and extends into the Florida Peninsula while expansive
ridging aloft continues to be anchored near the northern Baja of
California. At the surface, elongated surface high pressure
extended from the Mid Atlantic Region southwest across the Deep
South and into the northwest Gulf of Mexico.

Other than a few high clouds, expect mostly clear skies with dry
conditions to prevail through the short term period. Winds will
become light overnight with warmer overnight temperatures compared
to last few nights across the area as surface high pressure
shifts further eastward.

In the long term period, a cold front remains on track to move
through the area in dry fashion Saturday afternoon and evening.
Cooler conditions are expected on Sunday with possible freezing
temperatures Monday morning across our northern and central
counties. Dry conditions are expected to persist through the start
of the next work week.

05

.LONG TERM...
Saturday through Friday.

A quiet weather pattern with near normal temperatures should
continue for much of the extended period, and prospects for
rainfall continue look rather slim. A fast-moving shortwave will
bring a dry cold front our way on Saturday into Saturday night.
Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler for highs on Sunday,
and widespread low to mid 30s are expected for morning lows on
Monday as high pressure moves into the region. A slow warming
trend is expected to begin on Monday afternoon and continue into
Tuesday and Wednesday as higher heights move into the region ahead
of an upper-level trough in the Plains. Model agreement and
consistency is poor for Wednesday through Friday with the handling
of one or more shortwaves, making for high uncertainty regarding
potential rain chances for that period. It is conceivable that
moisture will be too limited for appreciable rainfall.

87/Grantham


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

--Increasing presence of clouds on Saturday, but period-wide VFR
 conditions persist--

The arrival of a shortwave trough and associated moisture aloft is
forecast on Saturday. Point soundings capture the evolution well,
with increasing mid- and high-level clouds, atop a continued dry
air mass at the surface and low levels. Calm winds tonight become
~westerly around 5 knots on Saturday.

A dry front will move through central Alabama toward the latter
portion of the TAF period, veering surface winds toward the
northwest/north into the evening, alongside a clearing sky.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The forecast features dry conditions and near normal temperatures
through the weekend and into early next week. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     39  63  37  60  32 /   0  10  10   0   0
Anniston    40  65  38  59  35 /   0  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  43  64  39  61  36 /   0  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  41  65  39  63  35 /   0  10   0   0   0
Calera      41  64  40  63  35 /   0  10   0   0   0
Auburn      43  65  42  59  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  42  67  40  63  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
Troy        44  68  42  63  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$



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