Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 020247
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
847 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...WHILE THE STRONGEST STORMS /SOME SEVERE/ ARE WELL TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST...ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SE
OREGON AND SW IDAHO...NORTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD LINE. THE
STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING HAVE PRODUCED GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND
HEAVY RAIN PER SURFACE OBS AND SPOTTER REPORTS...WITH SMALL HAIL
INDICATED BY RADAR. THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN SE OREGON AND PORTIONS OF SW IDAHO /MAINLY
NORTH OF BOISE/ OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF AN
UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUPPORT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER /SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/ WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE 70S. NO
UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END OVER
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AFTER 06Z BUT WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN HARNEY
COUNTY AND WESTERN BAKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OREGON AFTER 06Z.
SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS...GUSTY NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS ALOFT SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 30 KNOTS UP
THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE OREGON AND THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. THE SNAKE PLAIN TO THE ID/NV BORDER WILL DRY
OUT EARLY TONIGHT AFTER THE REMAINING AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS DISSIPATE. AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING OFF OF HIGHER
TERRAIN. FOR TUESDAY THERE IS LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AREN/T AS ROBUST AS TODAY...SO EXPECT LESS
COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION TO THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ACTIVITY RETREATS TO THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL ID
MTNS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ENERGY
CIRCULATING AROUND THE PARENT LOW WILL SWING THROUGH SE OREGON AND
SW IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FIRE OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY OVER SW IDAHO ZONES...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE STILL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH RAPIDLY DEEPENS SOUTH OVER THE COAST ON THURSDAY THEN CLOSES
OFF OVER CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR CIRCULATING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER DRIFTS NORTH
AND EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY
THEN WARM TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JT



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