Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 260234

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
834 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Current satellite imagery is showing our area still
in between two upper lows located over Southern California and
Central Montana. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected
to continue until sunset. The current forecast looks to be on
track and cover this convection, so there will be no updates this


.AVIATION...VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly near the
Idaho/Nevada border and over the higher terrain of southwest Idaho,
until sunset. Scattered to broken mid-level clouds. Surface winds
southwest to northwest 5-15 knots. Winds aloft, northwest to north
10-20 knots up through 10K feet MSL.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday...Showers and thunderstorms
were scattered mainly across the mountains of southwest Idaho and
also the Southwest Highlands as of 245 PM MDT. These were
generally moving south or southeast, and the strongest storms were
over central Owyhee County. A large upper level trough axis is
centered overhead this afternoon, and as this feature moves east
overnight, it will take most of the convection with it. Tomorrow,
we will be left with showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms
mainly in our Idaho zones while the Oregon side dries out.
However...another trough will approach from the northwest late
Thursday and move into the area Friday. This will push a cold
front through the region Thursday night into early Friday. The
front will be mainly dry, with a chance of showers confined to the
West-Central and Boise mountains. Northwest winds will increase
Friday behind the front and gusts will range from 10-20 kts over
most of the area, up to 20-30 kts in the Upper Treasure and
Western Magic Valleys. Temperatures will warm a few degrees to
near normal tomorrow, and then cool back down 5 to 10 degrees
behind the cold front Friday.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday...Upper level trough
still sits over the area which will keep a chance of showers for
the West Central Mountains through Sunday morning. The upper level
trough starts to push further east by Sunday afternoon, but
another shortwave passes through the area Sunday night into Monday
increasing the chances of precipitation for higher elevations in
Eastern Oregon and Western Idaho. The instability is not very
impressive this day so removed the chances of any convection from
the forecast. Monday afternoon, high pressure begins to push in
from the coast drying things out. This trend continues through the
end of the period. Temperatures start to climb to normal by Monday
and continue this trend becoming almost 10 degrees above normal by





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