Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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828
FXUS65 KBOI 282039
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
239 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW IN WESTERN
MONTANA KEEPS SOME MOISTURE AND SHOWERS GOING IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. BREEZING NORTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG OREGON/IDAHO BORDER BY LATE EVENING. FRIDAY
THE ATTENTION SHIFTS TO TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY IN OREGON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
SPREADING INTO IDAHO IN THE EVENING. YET AGAIN...THIS TROUGH
SPLITS OFF AND MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY MORNING...SO
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM IN CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND
NEAR NEVADA BORDER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES. BREEZY WINDS AGAIN BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THEN BACK
NEAR NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH TO ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT
THERE SEEMS TO BE DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH
THE TROUGH WILL DIG.  DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH THERE COULD BE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THAT COULD BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION TO REGIONS ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER.  WILL KEEP
THE POPS MOSTLY ON THE DRY SIDE BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
AND NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER.  TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MONDAY
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION.  THINKING THAT ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS...BUT WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN BORDERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
PACIFIC MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST.  HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND WARM TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE MUCH MORE IN ALIGNMENT
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHOW WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO PUSH IN AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO EASTERN OREGON. A
STEADY INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS LOW PROGRESSES TO OUR
SOUTH...MOSTLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.  SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT NORTHWESTERLY
10 KNOTS OR LESS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK...SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR BUT COULD SEE LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS.  SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET MSL BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOISE
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBOISE

SHORT TERM...TB
LONG TERM....JA/JC
AVIATION.....JA



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