Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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000
FXUS65 KBOI 010230
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM
SW IDAHO AND SE OREGON RESULTING IN DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND SHOWERS ENDING OVERNIGHT. 00Z NAM BRINGS SOME LOW
T/TD SPREAD AND MODELED CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS SO WILL WATCH FOR EARLY MORNING STRATUS THERE. WINDS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRY IT OUT ENOUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY
UP ABOVE 5-10KTS EXCEPT BRIEFLY BAKER VALLEY AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WHERE PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST CENTRAL/BOISE MOUNTAINS AND BAKER COUNTY BKN
CLOUDS BASES 12-15K FT MSL WITH LOCAL MTNS OBSCURED IN SHOWERS
UNTIL 09Z. ELSEWHERE SCT CLOUDS. THROUGHOUT...BECOMING MOSTLY
CLEAR WEDNESDAY EVENING. EARLY WEDNESDAY...LOCAL FOG 10-13Z
KMYL/KBKE. SURFACE WINDS NW 5-15KTS DECREASING TO LIGHT 10KTS OR
LESS THIS EVENING EXCEPT KTWF/KJER 10-20KTS WED AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT DECREASING FROM 25KTS TO 15KTS WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING IN MUCH DRIER AND A LITTLE
COOLER AIR. PRECIP IS ONLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THEN FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE MTNS TOMORROW
MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS LATE WED
THROUGH THU AND BEYOND. WITH LOWERED HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED NW FLOW
ALOFT...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. PATCHY
FOG IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS AND
LOW-LYING SPOTS SEEING THAT WE WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BE NOTICEABLY
LIGHTER TOMORROW AND THU. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST THU...BUT AT THIS TIME IS FORECAST TO BE JUST A
LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING
DIFFERENCES ON THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE CANADIAN
WEST COAST. EVEN WITH THE TIMING DIFFERENCES SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE HOW WARM OR COOL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....VM
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/WH


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