Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 231535
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
930 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...AT 12Z UPPER LOW WAS IN ECENTRAL IDAHO MOVING ENEWD
AWAY FROM OUR CWA.  EXPECT FEWER AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAN
YESTERDAY...ALL ON THE IDAHO SIDE AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE SNAKE
BASIN.  UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA LATER SUNDAY.  THE NEW TROUGH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ZONES IN OREGON SUNDAY WHILE
OTHER ZONES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR.  WE ARE INCREASING SKY COVER FOR ERN
ZONES IN IDAHO TODAY OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBKE-KBOI-KSUN. MOUNTAINS PARTIALLY
OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 10-20KT THIS
AFTERNOON...SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FEET MSL...NW
10-20KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LOW CENTER OVER CENTRAL
ID THIS MORNING TRACKS TO CENTRAL MT BY AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL UPSLOPE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS KEEPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
STABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL CAP THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO FROM THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN TO THE NV BORDER. NW FLOW THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER WILL
BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY TEMPERATURES
10-14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP
INTO THE PAC NW LATE SUNDAY. MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO. THE APPROACHING
LOW WILL NOT ALLOW THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY...SO SUNDAY/S HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS THE FLOW
ALOFT WEAKENS.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND
CENTRAL IDAHO. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVERAGE 3-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OUT
OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY...REPLACED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
HAD BEEN RESIDING OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....JT



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