Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 040333
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
833 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

EVENT IS STILL UNFOLDING THIS EVENING BUT FOR THE MOST PART
REMAINS ON TRACK. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS NARROW BUT HEAVY BANDS OF
SNOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE...WHILE COVERAGE IS ALSO INCREASING IN
BETWEEN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND WILL
THEN LIKELY DECREASE AS CONVECTIVE COMPONENT IS LOST. THERE IS
STILL SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS TO WORK WITH OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUED WEAK UPSLOPE TO AROUND 9000 FEET MSL...SO SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST LIGHT SNOW LINGER TIL AROUND DAYBREAK. THE EXPECTED
SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS REALLY DIFFUSE AT THIS TIME SO DONT SEE
MORE THAN BRIEF 15-20 MPH WINDS AT MOST THIS EVENING AND A GENERAL
DECREASE THEREAFTER.

WITH REGARD TO HIGHLIGHTS...NEARLY ALL ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN AT THEIR 5 AM EXPIRATION. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA BUT WILL MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF SNOWFALL BEFORE EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN WYOMING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY FRONT...BETTER SEEN
AT 750MB...WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL HELP PRODUCE SNOW THIS EVENING. COULD EVEN SEE A HEAVIER LINE
OF SNOW WITH THE SECOND FRONT WHICH COULD PRODUCE A SHORT DURATION
OF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY.

FOR THE MOUNTAINS...A MOIST UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AT 500-
700MB WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FRONT RANGE. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
DUE TO THE INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THEM. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE
IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. EXPECT ROADS TO BECOME SNOW PACKED AND
ICY THIS EVENING DUE TO THE FALLING TEMPERATURES...LOST OF SUN AND
INCREASE IN SNOWFALL.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AND ARCTIC MOVES INTO
COLORADO. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB ZERO
TEMPERATURES LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER
20S.

LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
MORNING. WILL ALSO KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE A WEAK WAVE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT
COULD PRODUCE SOME WEAK SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKES ITS WAY SE OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM INDICATES MILD LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE THE
MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND FOOTHILLS INTO THE EARLY MORNING ON
THURSDAY. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
NW AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SO HAVE KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE WARMER THEN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN BUT STILL BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS IN THE UPPER 30S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND NWLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ALOFT WITH A
DEEP HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST OF CA. FOR SATURDAY THERE
IS SOME MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BUT UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE AND LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE FLUSHED OUT DISTURBANCES
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THAT REGION SATURDAY BUT
FOR THE PLAINS IT COULD ONLY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER IN THE
MORNING THAT COULD POSSIBLY HINDER MAX TEMPS FOR LATER IN THE DAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE PLAINS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND RISE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NW
WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DRYING OUT. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING
TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S ON MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY LOWER 60S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 830 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

SNOW WITH PREVAILING VISIBILITIES AROUND 1-2SM WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 07Z. THERE WILL BE EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH
BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO 1/4SM - 1/2SM UNTIL THAT TIME AS
WELL. THEN SHOULD SEE GRADUAL INCREASE IN VISIBILITIES TO 3-5SM IN
LIGHT SNOW BY 11Z-13Z. SNOW WILL END COMPLETELY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH 14Z-16Z WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE WITH POSSIBLY UP TO 5 INCHES NEAR
KAPA. IT WILL BE A DRY AND FLUFFY SNOW. OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS LOOK FOR MVFR CEILINGS...PERHAPS BREAKING IN AREAS 15Z-18Z
WEDNESDAY AS DRIER ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ035-036-
039>041.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR COZ031-033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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