Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 252120
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
320 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD TOMORROW MORNING. WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH ELEVATIONS COULD BEGIN SEEING GUSTY WINDS AFTER
ABOUT MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE ALOFT WILL ALSO BE INCREASING...BUT
STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR WILL NOT MAKE IT
INTO NORTHERN COLORADO UNTIL LATER TOMORROW NIGHT...SO MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HAVE
ALSO LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN THAT
WE WILL BE IN THE WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL BE THE MAIN REASON FOR
A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

FAIRLY REMARKABLE SIMILARITIES AMONGST THE MODELS TODAY WITH
REGARDS TO THE UPCOMING TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALL OF THEM
HAVE THE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AT 00Z TUESDAY. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE IS NOT VERY STRONG AND SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED AS THE SYSTEM PASSES SO THIS SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. OROGRAPHICS ARE NOT IDEAL EITHER WITH WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPINGING ON THE MOUNTAINS WHEN MOISTURE IS THE
BEST. DRIER AIR MOVES IN AS THE FLOW DIRECTION GAINS A SMALL
NORTHERLY...MORE FAVORABLE...COMPONENT. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A
BRIEF TIME SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE CONDITIONS WILL
BE A BIT ROUGH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. QG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS MONDAY. FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL KICK
UP SOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FOR A TIME ALONG WITH A SMALL
THREAT OF SHOWERS. COLD AIR COMING IT WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
FAIRLY PLENTIFUL ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
BRINGING A DECENT POSSIBILITY OF A WIDESPREAD FREEZE EVENT. A
FREEZE WATCH/WARNING MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED BY LATER SHIFTS TO
ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A WEAK WAVE
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR A WEAK TROUGH TO SLIDE INTO
THE PLAINS THURSDAY COOLING THINGS OFF A BIT THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH...WELL ABOVE 8 THOUSAND FEET AGL. WINDS SHOULD BE
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE OVERNIGHT AND THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY ON
SUNDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...DANKERS



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