Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBOX 240139
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
939 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES...MAINLY INTERIOR BUT MOST
OF THE TIME IT WILL BE DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...

SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR THE MOMENT...BUT PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD GRAZE AT LEAST NORTHERN MA
OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS BECAME A BIT GUSTY AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
THIS EVENING...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING.
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH LOWS SETTLING BACK INTO 40S
TO AROUND 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
H5 RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE SURFACE HIGH SETS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...NOSING BACK INTO THE MID ATLC AND SE
STATES. NOTING MILD TEMPS ALREADY PUSHING IN ALONG WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ON THE SW WIND FLOW. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH TO THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 EXCEPT 65-70 ALONG THE S COAST.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. NOTING A WARM FRONT
OF SORTS TRYING TO DEVELOP LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NY STATE THAT
MIGHT TRY TO SNEAK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR AFTER 09Z
MON. WITH WEAK ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS
THAT LOOKS TO SHIFT N OF THE REGION. SO...DO NOT THINK IT WILL
REACH INTO THE REGION BUT REMAIN N AND W SEEING THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAINLY DRY MEMORIAL DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NW
* WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID TUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SCT AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS

OVERVIEW...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH BUILDING EAST COAST RIDGE AND POLAR JET LIFTING
ACROSS THE GT LAKES INTO SE CANADA. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES TO
THE NORTH WITH MID LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE UPPER GT LAKES BY
NEXT SAT. SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH
THE RISK FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY INTERIOR.

MONDAY...
WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO SNE DURING THE DAY WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUDS. MAIN FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE FROM THE GT LAKES TO UPSTATE NY AT THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SPILLING
INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN MA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS
IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT SW FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID AIRMASS
INTO SNE. WARMEST TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WILL BE IN THE DISTANT
INTERIOR...WITH COOLER 70S S COAST DUE TO SW FLOW OFF COOLER SST.
WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE TUE AND WED AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB TO
15- 17C WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 90 DEGREES INTERIOR VALLEYS
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO
LOWER 60S SO IT WILL START TO FEEL A BIT HUMID. MOISTURE CROSS
SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AROUND...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT PTSUNNY SKIES.

MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY
AXIS SETS UP ACROSS INTERIOR DURING EACH AFTERNOON SO POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY INTERIOR.
HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING THIS FAR OUT BUT IT APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE WED INTO SAT AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKS DOWN AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE TOP. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWATS 1.5"+.  BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST SO ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOME W-SW. GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE S
COAST.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT MAINLY
ACROSS N MA AND ALONG THE COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CIGS. SW WINDS BLUSTERY AT TIMES
DURING DAYTIME PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL EXTENT OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS AND FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

COASTAL BUOYS...MESONET OBSERVATIONS AND FERRY REPORTS INDICATE SW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30KT ON S COASTAL BAYS AND SOUNDS WHERE WE
WILL MAINTAIN SCA OVERNIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND SCA IN LATER
FORECASTS TO INCLUDE MORE OF NEAR SHORE WATERS SUN AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 25KT GUSTS COMING OFF LAND...AS WELL
AS OUTER WATERS FOR 5 FT SEAS SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. SW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH G25
KT POSSIBLE TUE THROUGH THU OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. PERSISTENT SW
FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS BUILDING TO 5+ FT OVER S COASTAL WATERS BY
TUE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SW WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...UP TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CONTINUES...DATING BACK TO
LATE APRIL. EVEN WITH INCREASING DEWPTS ON THE SW WINDS...MINIMUM
RH VALUES WILL STILL BE DOWN TO 20-30 PERCENT AWAY FROM THE SOUTH
COAST. INFORMATION FROM STATE FIRE OFFICIALS STILL INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER SPREAD. HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR SUNDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME ALLEVIATION TO THESE CONDITIONS AS SW WINDS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ232>235.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT
NEAR TERM...JWD
SHORT TERM...EVT
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EVT
MARINE...KJC/EVT/JWD
FIRE WEATHER...EVT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.