Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 162357
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
757 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW...A STRONG MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO SEASONAL APRIL NORMS BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS BY SATURDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT BRINGS A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY
CHANGES MADE WERE TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO GRIDS.
STILL LOOKING AT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET AND VERY COLD NIGHT EXPECTED AS STRONG 1040 MB POLAR HIGH
SETTLES DIRECTLY ATOP THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
BE THE RULE ALONG WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AS READINGS BOTTOM
OUT IN THE TEENS FOR MOST SPOTS. A SHORT LIST OF LOWS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING (4/17) ARE LISTED BELOW. WHILE RIVERS AND FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS OUR AREA...WARNINGS REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS...AND PORTIONS OF NRN NY/SLV
WHICH WERE PARTICULARLY HARD HIT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST NWS STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS FOR RIVERS IN YOUR
SPECIFIC AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING
PRONOUNCED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH A
CONSIDERABLE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. BLENDED MODEL 925 MB
THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT HIGHS ON THURSDAY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND 50 IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS...THEN SOLID 50S IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A WELCOME CHANGE
FOR MOST.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING WEAK GREAT
LAKES SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE SLV SPREADING CLOUDS AND AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS/HIGHER ELEV SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR
AREA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...ESP IN COMPARISON
TO OUR MOST RECENT EVENT BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT I`VE OFFERED
SOLID 40-60 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA..ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING LOW TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE
30S AND PERHAPS RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 314 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK IS IN STORE WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY RANGE FROM 45-55F.
SOME NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO LINGERING
MOUNTAIN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BUT BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LEAD TO DRYING CONDITIONS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK OFF INTO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

WE`LL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
START THE DAY...AND INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO SEASONAL NORMS...WELL INTO THE 50S
FOR MOST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THIS WILL STILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION. THE ADDED
CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. HIGHS MONDAY
REACH 57-62F.

HAVE A SLIGHT BREAK MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ON THE DOORSTEP FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS TOO LOOKS TO REMAIN WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE WITH ONLY CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO MONDAY...IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY POST FRONTAL ON WEDNESDAY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...EXCEPT RUT WHERE
VALLEY INDUCED SOUTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED. WINDS THEN
TREND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 8-13 KTS THURSDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXCEPTION WILL BE MSS WHERE WINDS WILL
BE EAST/NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS
WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...RUNOFF FROM YESTERDAY`S
RAINFALL/SNOWMELT EVENT CONTINUES TO LESSEN WITH TIME TODAY. WITH
NO NEW FLOODING ANTICIPATED AND CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS
THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD AND PERSONS WITH INTERESTS ALONG AREA
WATERWAYS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND
WARNINGS FROM THE NWS IN BURLINGTON BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO..OR ONLINE AT: WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BTV

&&

.CLIMATE...
BELOW IS A SHORT LIST OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
THURSDAY...APRIL 17. PLEASE NOTE THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR KMPV AND
KMSS (1948) ARE CONSIDERABLY SHORTER THAN AT KBTV (1884).

SITERECORD DATE

KBTV 13F 1971
KMPV 17F 2003
KMSS 20F 2003

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...JMG/RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
CLIMATE...JMG







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