Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 180558
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1258 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR THROUGH
TOMORROW, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1232 AM EST THURSDAY...ONLY VERY SLIGHT NOISE LEVEL CHANGES
MADE TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AS OF 900 PM WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
NEAR YARMOUTH, NS TRUDGES SLOWLY NORTHEAST KEEPING
WIDESPREAD...ALBEIT LIGHT RAINS AND SNOWS ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS DEVELOPING ALOFT...STUBBORN LOW
LEVEL INVERSION HAS KEPT SURFACE WINDS VERY LIGHT SO FAR. EXPECT
AS LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY LATER TONIGHT...GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW LIGHT TO MODEST WNW WINDS TO TRANSLATE TO THE
SURFACE AS WELL. IN REGARD TO PCPN/SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...STILL
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT AS RATHER DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INTERACT WITH
BLOCKED FLOW TO ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RATHER MARGINAL (L-M 30S) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE VALLEYS
DESPITE COOLING PROFILES ALOFT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000 FEET
OR SO DOING SOMEWHAT BETTER WHERE A FEW INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE
BY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...ESP
ACROSS VT. HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW CONTINUES
IT`S SLOW TREK NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY
MORNING TO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE BY FRIDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE SNOWS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE THE VALLEY FLOOR WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW, THE CLIMO FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCALES ALONG THE NORTHERN GREENS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" OF SNOW. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO THIN AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EASTWARD. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SHOULD END BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIKELY A NOTABLE
CLEARING LINE IN THE WESTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT LOW LEVELS DRY OUT AND WE SHOULD SEE OUR FIRST
CLEAR NIGHT IN QUITE SOME TIME WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EST WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
PROVIDE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S. MIN TEMPS WILL SEE THE MID TEENS
TO MID 20S THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING ALOFT PUTS THE NORTH
COUNTRY IN S-SW FLOW...INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 30S IN
THE VALLEYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE NEXT THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE SW FLOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING, BUT KEEPING THE NORTH COUNTRY
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT
AT SOME POINT CHRISTMAS EVE, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS
AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOIST
NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM
06-15Z. MPV/SLK WILL BE MOST AFFECTED WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. GREATEST
CHANCES AT BTV THROUGH 15Z AND MSS/PBG/RUT THROUGH ABOUT 12Z WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AT THESE SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

06Z FRI-12Z FRI...SOME MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS AT MPV/SLK BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

12Z FRI-00Z TUE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
INCREASING THREAT OF PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...JMG/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...RJS/MUCCILLI



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