Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 271103

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
703 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Unsettled and warmer weather moves into the North Country today
as low pressure moving northward through the Great Lakes pushes
a warm front into the region. Periods of rain and freezing rain
develop this morning before transitioning to all rain by this
afternoon, and then tapering off tonight. Scattered showers re-
develop Tuesday as the front begins to migrate back southward,
with some higher elevations snow showers possible Tuesday night
and Wednesday post frontal passage. High pressure briefly
returns for Thursday before another storm system looks to affect
the region on Friday.


As of 703 AM EDT Monday...No changes needed to the forecast at
this time.

Previous Discussion...Forecast remains on track for
the near term with low pressure over the Great Lakes continuing
to push a warm front into the region. Latest radar trends show
some spotty precipitation working it`s way into the North
Country from the southwest at this time, with a better slug of
moisture still further upstream over central NY and PA. Current
obs show warm air has worked it`s way in aloft with summit temps
in the low/mid 30s, and much of the forecast area east the
Greens has held steady in the mid 30s as well. Colder regions
around or just below freezing exist east of the Green Mountains
as well as southwest portions of Essex county of New York so
this is where we continue the freezing rain advisory through
mid-morning for a light glaze. Opted to remove eastern
Chittenden and eastern Franklin counties from the advisory as
temps never dropped out of the mid 30s and will only hold steady
or slowly climb from hereon out. Difficult to say how much
impact the freezing rain will have on the morning commute though
as DOT road sensors show a lot of locations still holding above
freezing, a few slightly below so the ground isn`t overly cold.
Nevertheless, any glaze that does develop will make travel
treacherous. By mid-morning surface temps rise enough to
transition ptype to plain rain, continuing through early
afternoon before exiting to the east as drier mid-level air
works into the region. Highs should top out in the upper 30s
east to upper 40s west.

For tonight, aforementioned warm front continues to push towards
the Canadian border with widespread precipitation mainly east of
the region but a few showers here and there are possible as low
levels remain saturated. Abundant clouds and light winds will
keep temps mild in the 30s. On Tuesday, high pressure building
southward from James Bay will begin to push the front back
southward as a cold front with winds shifting to the northwest
through the day. Expect the morning to be mainly dry but moving
into the afternoon scattered showers should develop ahead of the
front with highs pushing into the mid 40s to around 50.


As of 321 AM EDT Monday....Background flow trends bodily to the
northwest in all areas by Tuesday night as northern stream
upper trough builds southward into the area. This will drive a
cold front through the region and with boundary layer
temperatures cooling a transition to scattered snow showers is
expected as coverage gradually wanes. Some minor accumulations
possible across elevated terrain to perhaps an inch or two.

By Wednesday main push of upper trough swings through the region as
surface high pressure builds south and east from central Ontario. A
continued threat for scattered rain/snow shower activity will exist,
mainly across the northern high terrain as temperatures top out in
the upper 30s to lower 40s for most. A fairly deep boundary layer to
850 mb under modest cold thermal advection aloft should ensure a
breezy day with northwesterly gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range as
skies trend partly sunny for all but the northern Green Mountains by
the afternoon hours.


As of 321 AM EDT Monday...Any lingering northern mountain snow
showers end Wednesday evening with dry weather expected Thursday
into Thursday night as southern nose of Canadian high pressure
traverses the area. Low temperatures on both nights mainly in
the 20s with a few upper teens in favored northern mountain
hollows. Highs on Thursday similar to Wednesday - upper 30s to
mid 40s.

Next precipitation maker then arrives by Friday into Friday night as
additional energy tracks northeast from the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes
area. Global models have trended toward taking this system
further northward than prior indications and as such have raised
precipitation probabilities accordingly - especially during the
Friday afternoon to Saturday morning time frame. Boundary layer
thermal profiles suggest this will mainly fall as a rain event
for lower elevations, though with 850 mb temps hovering around
0C some mix with snow or even all snow may occur across the
higher terrain above 1500 feet or so, especially Friday night
when a mix may even reach the valley floors. Time will tell. By
Saturday steadier precipitation exits east during the morning
hours as skies remain variably cloudy. Temperatures average near
late March norms with highs Friday/Saturday generally in the
lower to mid 40s with Friday night lows from the upper 20s to
mid 30s.

Looking further out a gradual drying trend is expected by the latter
half of the weekend as surface high pressure is bridged aloft by
modest upper troughing. Temperatures should remain within 5 degrees
of typical early April values with highs ranging through the 40s and
overnight lows from 25 to 35.


Through 12Z Tuesday...MVFR conditions to largely persist
through the next 12 hours with a trend to IFR for most locations
after 00z. Ifr to arrive a little earlier around noon at KMSS. Warm
frontal precipitation continues to move into the region over
the next few hours predominantly as rain except for FZRA at KMPV
through 15Z. Precip clears the area to the east after 18Z. For
winds, mainly south/southeast except northeast at KMSS at
5-10kts. Some gusts up to 20-24kts in the Champlain Valley at
KRUT/KBTV through mid- day.

Outlook 12Z Tuesday through Friday...

12Z Tuesday through 00Z Thursday...MVFR/IFR in isolated rain
showers Monday night, scattered rain showers Tuesday, then
scattered rain/snow showers Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Moderately gusty NW winds likely Wednesday.

00Z Thursday through 00Z Saturday...Mainly VFR, except for some
scattered MVFR snow showers over the Adirondacks and Green
Mountains, mainly 00Z Thursday until 00Z Friday.


VT...Freezing Rain Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for VTZ003-
NY...Freezing Rain Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NYZ034.


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