Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 271158
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
758 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS
MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 758 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY GRIDS
TO COVER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS
TIME. COMPOSITE RADAR LOPP SHOWING SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP ALREADY SHOWING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO DESTABILIZE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO
1.9 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE ABOVE 11000 FEET...SO FEEL ANY
HAIL REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA LOOKS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. HAVE
USED THE BTV 4KM MODEL FOR TIMING AS TO WHEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS THE
REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TO BE MAINLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN VERMONT EARLY THIS EVENING.
EXPECTING A LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE MAINLY IN
THE 70S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE GONE A BIT
ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAGNITUDE/INTENSITY OF STORMS
WILL DEPEND UPON FRONTAL PASSAGE TIME...WHICH MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON. GFS IS SHOWING FROPA DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY
AFTN WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WHILE
ECMWF IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HAS LESS INSTABILITY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST TRENDS OFF THE GFS CONT TO SHOW THE BEST 5H
VORT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING MID/UPPER LVL TROF...APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA DURING MAX INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH A SHARP SFC COLD
FRNT. IF THIS TIMING WOULD VERIFY...A LINE OF STORMS WOULD BE
LIKELY...WITH WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE. WILL CONT TO MONITOR LATEST TIMING FOR
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FCST...BUT SAT AFTN/EVENING LOOKS ACTIVE.
STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN SFC BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR FA...INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ALONG WITH
BEST FORCING/MOISTURE. WILL KEEP SUNDAY AFTN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 14-16C SUPPORT HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL DROP SHARPLY BY SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HAVE NOTED LATEST MEX HAS A 28F FOR SLK ON MONDAY MORNING...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN CLR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PROGGED LLVL
THERMAL PROFILES. SOME FROST HIGHLIGHTS MAYBE NEEDED.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MID WEEK
WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80F.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TIMING OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS THRU 14Z. EXPECT
SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY AFTER 16Z
TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VIS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. VIS
WILL RANGE BTWN 1-3SM AND CIGS 1500 TO 2500 FEET AGL. IN
ADDITION...ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS...WHICH WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE AND WIND
SHEAR. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND AND CLOUD TO CLOUD LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS THIS AFTN. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SHIFT EAST OF
OUR TERMINALS BY 00Z THURSDAY...WITH GENERALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD
06Z AT SLK/MPV AND MAYBE MSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF
MPV/RUT WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. SFC HIGH PRES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 432 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR LAKE
CHAMPLAIN MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON. IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...WGH


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