Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 030833
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
433 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES ON FRIDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL
BE TOWARD VERY WARM...MODERATELY HUMID...AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
NORTHWESTERLY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO OVER NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT RADAR IS RATHER QUIET AT
THIS TIME. DESPITE VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER...FOG HAS
FORMED IN MANY OF THE FAVORED LOCALES...AND WILL KEEP IN A MENTION
EARLY TODAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z. HIGHEST
POPS (40-50%) INDICATED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG
WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR AND TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WITH FOG EXPECTED IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS
06-12Z FRIDAY ALONG WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 40S IN THE ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ALONG WITH
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. DEEP LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH
SOME LATE NIGHT FOG ONCE AGAIN. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORMALLY
COOLER SPOTS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. TEMP
PROFILE SLIGHTLY WARMER SATURDAY...SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...APEX OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT TO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO
TURN MORE ZONAL GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THE
RESULTING WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUNNY/DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGHS RUNNING A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
80S TO NEAR 90. LOWS WILL BE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL, BUT STILL ON
THE MILD SIDE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST TRENDS THOUGH ARE FOR A VERY THIN
LINE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH LITTLE HEIGHT FALLS SO THINKING THIS
REALLY WON`T AMOUNT TO MUCH.

BEHIND THE FRONT, SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
OVER THE NORTHEAST THOUGH WITH LESS AMPLITUDE SO TEMPS DO DROP OF A
LITTLE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL LOOKING TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH, BUT ONLY BY 5-10 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER IN THE FORECAST, IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. CERTAINLY
WAY TOO FAR OUT TO ZERO IN ON THE EXACT DETAILS, BUT A RETURN TO
MORE NORMAL TEMPS LOOKS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SOME MVFR/IFR BR AND SOME ISOLATED IFR CIGS AROUND
UNDER A BROADER OVERCAST CIRRUS DECK. AFTER 14Z, SURFACE FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH WILL BRING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSRA TO THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KSLK TO
KMPV THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR. BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN CIGS/VSBY ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY LIKELY
AT MPV/SLK, AND POSSIBLE AT MSS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF



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