Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 021716
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
116 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST TODAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS EAST OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA. A STRONG EARLY SEASON
COLD FRONT WILL SWING INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY BRINGING A
WIDESPREAD AND WELCOMED SOAKING RAINFALL. BEHIND THIS FRONT
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO MORE TYPICAL EARLY OCTOBER VALUES FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 111 PM EDT THURSDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE TEMPS ACRS
THE CPV/SLV...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE HAS DEVELOPED THAN ANTICIPATED.
ALSO...HAVE CONTINUED TO FINE TUNE CLOUD GRIDS BASED ON LATEST VIS
SATL PIC. AS ANTICIPATED...SFC HEATING HAS HELPED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE DACKS AND PARTS OF THE
GREEN MTNS THIS AFTN...WITH MAINLY CLOUD AND COOL CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT. HAVE MENTION HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S SLV...AS OGS IS ALREADY 72F TO NEAR 70F AT BTV TO
MID 60S AT VSF/RUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT THURSDAY...PARTLY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN
RETURN (OR CONTINUE) TONIGHT INTO FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AS LOWER TO
MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND LINGERING MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
BACK NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. DID TREND ON
THE MORE OPTIMISTIC SIDE SUGGESTING AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS...THOUGH THIS COULD BE WISHFUL THINKING IF YOU
BELIEVE SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS LITERAL. LOW
TEMPERATURES 46 TO 54...COOLEST EAST WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY 65 TO
73...MILDEST WEST. POPS NIL.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD
OF A STRONG EARLY SEASON UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES STATES. SKIES TRENDING CLR/PC IN MOST
SPOTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN
BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FRONTAL ZONE DRAWS CLOSER WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/RAIN PUSHING INTO THE SLV AFTER 4 AM OR SO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN A TAD MILDER THAN PRIOR NIGHTS BY A FEW
DEGREES...MAINLY 50S.

ON SATURDAY AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
WITH A WIDESPREAD AND WELCOMED RAINFALL EXPECTED. MODEL BLENDED QPF
SUGGEST AREAL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH AREA
WIDE. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA
IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS AND LIKELY THE HEAVIEST SINCE MID AUGUST. GIVEN
SUCH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HYDRO CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL. SOME
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...BUT LATEST NAM12 925 WIND
PROGS SUGGEST HIGHER...MORE PROBLEMATIC GUSTS ARE LESS LIKELY THAN
PRIOR INDICATIONS. AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE EVENT LATER TODAY INTO
FRIDAY...HIGHER RES WRF DATA MAY ADD MORE INSIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER GIVEN CLOUDS/PCPN...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S...PERHAPS A FEW MID 60S FAR EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT THURSDAY...LARGE-SCALE MID-TROPOSPHERIC REGIME
CHANGE TOWARD BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BE UNDERWAY TO OPEN
THE PERIOD. CENTER OF LARGE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
BE IN WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RESULT IN AN INCREASING
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
PINWHEEL AROUND LONGWAVE TROUGH/LOW. THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO
BENEFIT FROM GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 00Z/02 GLOBAL MODELS WITH
PRIMARY DIFFERENCES BEING IN TIMING INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE PUSHING ACROSS VT SAT NIGHT.
LIKELY TO LOW CATEGORICAL POPS FOR EASTERN VT/NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WITH SHARPER TAPER DOWN ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PRECEDE THE FRONT...WITH PROGGED
GFS PWS OF 1.5" BEING ABOUT 200% OF NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. ONE
INTERESTING ASPECT INHERENT IN TODAY`S GFS/EC AND NAM/WRF GUIDANCE
IS A SECONDARY WAVE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT NEAR NYC AND MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO NH/ME. FEATURE IS STRONGEST IN THE NAM/WRF...BUT
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN FORECAST QPF ACROSS
NORTHEAST VT/GREENS. CURIOUS TO SEE IF THAT UNFOLDS AS PROGGED. QPF
FROM THIS EVENT PROBABLY MORE BENEFICIAL GIVEN HOW DRY IT`S BEEN. A
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT BELTS IN NORTHERN NY BUT LARGELY DRY
ELSEWHERE.

FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT THEN SKIRTS ACROSS
NORTHERN NY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS THERE BUT
MOSTLY DRY FOR VT. AS LONGWAVE TROUGH RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY
TUESDAY...A BETTER-DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES UP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH POPS TRENDING TOWARD HIGH CHANCE BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE PERIOD START OFF A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
(LOWER 60S) BUT TRENDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...FLIGHT CATEGORIES CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CEILINGS AS LOW AS
LIFR INTERSPERSED WITH PATCHY AREAS OF MIST. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TOWARD VFR IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE MORNING AS SHALLOW LLVL
INVERSION EVIDENT IN SOUNDINGS MIXES OUT. THOUGH MOST SITES WILL
BE VFR TONIGHT...QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY MARINE STRATUS CAN WORK
ITS WAY BACK NORTH UNDERNEATH RIDGING ALOFT AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL
925 MB RH FIELDS. HAVE INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT
MPV AND RUT. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN AT SLK. WINDS CONTINUE
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY: VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY: MOSTLY VFR. MARKED INCREASE IN WINDS
LEADS TO POTENTIAL LLWS CONCERN FOR MSS AND PERHAPS PBG LATE. BEST
SHOT AT OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV WITH WINDS BEING LIGHTER THERE.

12Z SATURDAY - 12Z SUNDAY: SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTH COUNTRY. VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRIEFLY LOWERING TO MVFR CIGS/VISBYS IN RAIN.

12Z SUNDAY ONWARD: MOSTLY BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS. POTENTIAL FOR
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AT SLK BUT UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT LIFR/VLIFR FOG AT MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO







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