Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 062043
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
343 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
WEAK CLIPPER APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. A FEW OTHER WEAK
SYSTEMS MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL
LEVELS THIS WEEKEND, AND ACTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 316 PM EST FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL WRAP UP THE WORK
WEEK AS CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE AS A
WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WHILE THE LATEST SHORT TERM HI-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT, FEEL THIS INITIAL SURGE OF WILL
MOSTLY GO TOWARDS SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS SO HAVE ONLY
HIGHLIGHTED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS. FEEL THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW COMES TOMORROW ASSOCIATED WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS,
MORE ON THAT BELOW. AS FOR TEMPS TONIGHT, WITH THE TIMING OF
CLOUDS THICKENING LATE, EXPECT LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION TO
OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND MORE
TOWARDS CLIMO- TIMO NEAR SUNRISE IN THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY. WE`LL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS GENERALLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO, EXCEPT A FEW SUB-ZERO
READINGS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 316 PM EST FRIDAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE, BEST CHANCE IN THE
NEAR/SHORT TERM FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW COMES SATURDAY AS A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND INCREASED LOW/MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, AND WANE AFTER AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF BEST MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO, VERY LITTLE CHANCE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER THINKING HIGHLIGHTING LIMITED MOISTURE LEADING
TO GENERALLY A DUSTING TO 3" OF SNOW, WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VERMONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS.

GOING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND, A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THOUGH WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS AND
CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS SUNDAY PRETTY CLOSE TO SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS 25-35F, AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 7-17F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM EST FRIDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 12Z GFS AND ECMWF.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS...JUST THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
AT TIMES.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED MONDAY AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND
CLEARING SKIES. THE HIGH PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING AND MILDER TEMPS ON SOUTHWEST FLOW.

WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND MAY TOUCH
OFF A FEW SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
RISK OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER AND COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

MILDEST TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
850 MB TEMPS OF -2 TO -5C WILL ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLDER READINGS LATER IN THE
WEEK WHEN HIGHS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS AFTER 06Z SATURDAY
AHEAD OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. EXPECT SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT
MSS/SLK DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z...BUT VFR WITH JUST VCSH INDICATED
AT REMAINING TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WINDS SOUTHWEST 10 KTS GUSTING 20 KTS AT MSS/SLK THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS MOSTLY SOUTHERLY 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SATURDAY-06Z TUESDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW AS
SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

06Z TUESDAY-06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z WEDNESDAY-00Z THURSDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS


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