Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 040006
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
806 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GRADUAL
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
THEN RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AS A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 719 PM EDT TUESDAY...WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR CWA IS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT STREAMING ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT NORTH FROM MID ATLANTIC SYSTEM AND SPREAD MORE CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING
OVER NORTHERN NY BY SUNRISE ON WEDS. THESE RAIN SHOWERS WILL
EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 18Z WEDS...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN VT...WHERE QPF
AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 0.25".

FOR THIS EVENINGS UPDATE I INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND EXPANDED DEVELOPING AREA OF CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL NY INTO THE DACKS. MOST AREAS WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES BY
06Z...WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE MID 30S MTNS TO MID 40S WARMER
VALLEYS. MAINLY LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

CLEARING OVER MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. LATE THIS EVENING EXPECT THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST AND FLOW TURNS MORE
EAST SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO INCREASE OFF
THE COAST OF THE ATLANTIC. ONCE THAT DOES, EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO DROP SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO BE
THE FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. LATEST
HIRES GUIDANCE DOES POINT TOWARDS THERE BEING SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH SOME DECENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY. GIVEN THIS I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD IN MENTION
OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS MAINLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
AND SO I`VE KEPT MENTION OF LIKELY POPS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK
WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS MENTIONED FOR VERMONT. THE SHOWERS IN
VERMONT WILL LIKELY BE OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED AND CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SITES.

AS THE FLOW OVERNIGHT TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO START TO WARM ALOFT AS 850MB TEMPS WARM FROM NEAR 0C TO +2C
OVERNIGHT. WITH THAT WARMING OVERNIGHT EXPECT A MORE MILD EVENING
THIS EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. THEN TOMORROW EXPECT THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE
WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 TOMORROW EVEN UNDER THE
OVERCAST SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WED NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WE WILL GENERALLY BE STUCK
UNDER SOME CLOUDS AND WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT
WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 353 PM EDT TUESDAY...FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN GET CAUGHT UP IN UPPER
TROF AND FINALLY KICK EASTWARD SUNDAY. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOW DRIFTS NORTHWARD WILL HAVE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING.
SATURDAY WILL MAINLY BE DRY...THEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO KICK THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF. HAVE LIKELY POPS MENTIONED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SEE A
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY MAKES IT
OVER OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST
WITH A MARINE LAYER OVER MOST OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST VERMONT AT
THIS WITH MVFR CEILINGS. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY RETURN
OVERNIGHT TO THOSE AREAS THAT ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH
CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO MVFR ACROSS MOST AREAS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WED: MAINLY VFR BUT SOME
MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS W/UPPER TROF. THU-SAT: MAINLY VFR BUT
CHANCE MVFR LCL IFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 806 PM EDT TUESDAY...DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE ISSUE...THE
AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE PLATTSBURGH
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KPBG) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT OBSERVATIONS TO
THE REST OF THE WORLD AT THIS TIME. THE FAA ATLANTIC OPERATIONS
CONTROL CENTER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TELEPHONE LINE
OUTAGE AT THE KPBG ASOS WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL/TABER
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...WGH/DEAL/SISSON
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



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