Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 010513
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS UNSETTLED AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 956 PM EDT FRIDAY...INCREASING CYCLONIC 700-500MB FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN GREAT
LAKES REGION IS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS
STRETCHING FROM SWRN QUEBEC ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY NY TO NEAR
WATERTOWN NY. THESE LEADING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EWD 20-30 MPH
OVERNIGHT...AND WILL ULTIMATELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND 20-30
POPS ACROSS NRN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AREAWIDE WITH RAINFALL AMTS GENERALLY
EXPECTED <0.10". SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ROOTED AROUND
800MB INDICATED BY 18Z NAM (GENERALLY 100-200 J/KG)...SO
MAINTAINING ISOLD TSTMS WITH A FEW RUMBLES POSSIBLE (BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER PER
LATEST RADAR TRENDS...BUT STILL SEEING CGS AT 02Z WITH CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO). MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED. WINDS
OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LIGHT S-SW 5 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 351 PM EDT FRIDAY...FOR SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...OUR WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING SATURDAY AND THEN
AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANOTHER
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAINLY DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH JUST THE LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. TEMPS REMAIN
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME...THUS DISCUSSION BORROWED FROM MIDSHIFT AS THE LONGER TERM HAS
LOOKED THE SAME FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. NO HEAT WAVES ON THE
HORIZON.

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
LONGER TERM. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO PASSING
SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN EASTERN CANADA
TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME
OF THE CONVECTION COULD TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL
TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20-
40%) WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT
WHILE DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY
AND LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY) AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM 5-10 KTS. SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER TO AFFECT KSLK/KPBG/KBTV AND POSSIBLY KMPV/KMSS TERMINALS
THROUGH 12Z WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDER REDEVELOP
AFTER 16Z THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AFTER LOOKING AT LATEST INFORMATION
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS OCCURRING AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCSH
AT THE KMSS TERMINAL IN THE 20-00Z TIME FRAME.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JMG/SLW
AVIATION...JMG/MV
EQUIPMENT...JMG



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