Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 282336
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
736 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day weekend will continue to see well above normal
temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees
above normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher
relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 724 PM EDT Saturday...No significant changes needed to
current forecast, with very warm conditions continuing this
evening (temps mainly in the 80s at 7pm). With the 2pm
observation in Burlington we reached 90 degrees for the second day
in a row putting us two thirds of a way to a local heat wave.
Expect warm and moderately humid conditions through the overnight
period. Despite some continued towering Cu across the higher
terrain, anticyclonic flow aloft with strong mid-level ridge in
place across NY/New England precluding any convective initiation
with lack of large-scale forcing for ascent.

Anticipate some patchy fog/mist across the valleys of northern NY
after midnight tonight, similar to what occurred during the pre-
dawn hrs this morning. Lack of rainfall in recent days will
generally limit areal extent of fog formation. Overnight low
temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s.

For Sunday, mid-level shortwave trough crossing the ern Great
Lakes induces height falls by afternoon across nrn NY/VT, with
better chance for afternoon shower and thunderstorm development as
compared to the previous 2-3 days. There will be a large influx
of precipitable water with values rising to 1.6-1.8". 925mb temps
are elevated again Sunday and the 21-23C 925mb temps will support
max temps tomorrow once again in the upper 80s to low 90s.
Currently the forecast for Burlington reaches heat wave criteria
with a max temps of 90 expected. Should remain dry with partly to
mostly sunny for the morning hours, then will see scattered
shower/tstm development mainly after 17-18Z, with initial
development likely starting across the ern slopes of the
Adirondacks and moving ewd into the Champlain Valley and into wrn
VT, per 18Z NAM4KM. MUCAPE values are expected to reach 1000-2000
J/kg during the peak daytime heating hours. With the chance for
thunderstorm development, slow storm motions, and PWAT values
1.6-1.8", continued to mention the chance for heavy rain in any
thunderstorms that develop. We should be safe with regards to
flash flooding owing to how dry we`ve been in May but locally
heavy downpours and dangerous cloud to ground lightning can be
expected with the scattered convective storms expected Sunday aftn
into early Sunday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...precipitable water values early
Sunday night will be 1.5 to 2 inches. Will mention showers and
thunderstorms for Sunday night, and will include some heavy
rainfall possible with any thunderstorms. Conditions quite dry
across the region in May, so do not expect any flash flood issues
at this time. ECMWF and GFS models now showing frontal system will
move through the region earlier in the day on Monday with showers
mainly Monday morning, as both models showing a mid level dry slot
will move into the region by 18z Monday. Thus, have decreased pops
for Monday afternoon, and will go with a dry forecast for Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 427 PM EDT Saturday...Fair and dry weather will be over the
north country from Tuesday through Thursday night, as a ridge of
high pressure at the surface and aloft builds east from the Great
Lakes. ECMWF and GFS models in fairly good agreement with bring a
cold front from the Great Lakes into the region with showers
expected Friday and Friday night. ECMWF and GFS models differ on
forecast for Saturday, with the ECMWF model more progressive than
the GFS and has a mainly dry forecast for Saturday, while the GFS
model has the front stalled across the region on Saturday as it
will be parallel to the upper flow. Thus, forecaster confidence
for the Saturday forecast is low at this time. Have stuck with
super-blend pops for Saturday and will have a chance of showers in
the forecast for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 00z Monday... Generally VFR with overnight IFR/LIFR mist
at SLK and possibly at MPV. Increasing risk for sct SHRA/TSRA
particularly after 16z Sunday.

All-in-all pretty similar to last night with some leftover high
clouds. Areas of mist likely starting at 06z at SLK. Boundary-
layer flow is slightly higher enough at mpv to keep any mist
that may develop there temporary. Winds initially light/terrain
driven becoming calm.

Any mist/light fog burns off early in the morning under strong
sunshine. Additional heating and increasing depth of moisture
should support at least scattered showers/possible storms.
Latest short-term guidance points to a start time around 16z off
the Adirondacks and then advancing eastward. Any thunderstorm
capable of heavy rain and associated brief IFR visibilities.
Maintained VCSH for this period with prevailing VFR conditions.
Winds becoming south/southwest 5-8 kts.

Outlook 00z Monday through Wednesday... Mainly VFR with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Sunday early
evening and Monday time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for Saturday 5/28 and Sunday 5/29 are as
follows:
                           5/28         5/29
BTV - Burlington        92 in 1978    89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        88 in 1978    87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           89 in 1978    90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            93 in 1978    92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978    77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Deal
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...Deal/Loconto
CLIMATE...BTV


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