Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 301031
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
631 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A diffuse front will remain stalled in the region during the
rest of the week. Expect mainly diurnal scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The models keep the diffuse front in the forecast area through
tonight. The broad upper troughing will continue with h5
temperature near -11 C. The pattern supports thunderstorms but
coverage will likely be diminished by widespread convection last
evening and cloudiness limiting instability. Also, the models
display h85 westerly flow with weak cold advection. The NAM,
GFS, and ECMWF MOS support pops of 20 to 30 percent. Forecasted
the greater chance near the time of maximum heating. The
temperature guidance was close.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The diffuse front is forecast to remain in the region through
Wednesday night. The models show a flatter upper pattern but
still have h5 temperatures around -11 C. It may be a little
drier Wednesday with continued h85 westerly flow. We leaned
toward the lower guidance pops of around 20 percent with the
greatest chance near the time of maximum heating. Followed the
guidance consensus for the temperature forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The models display high pressure in the Atlantic circulating a
southerly flow with an approaching cold front getting closer to
the area Sunday and Monday. The thunderstorm chance may increase
as moisture becomes deeper ahead of the front. The GFS and ECMWF
MOS support pops of 20 to 30 percent Thursday and Friday, and 30
to 40 percent during the rest of the period. The MOS has
temperatures close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the most part, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period other than some possible brief low cigs early this
morning. A weak frontal boundary will remain to our west today.
Isolated convection is possible this afternoon but not enough
confidence to mention in the TAFs. Despite some lingering
moisture from previous convection, fog is not expected early
this morning, although some low clouds may move from the west
until around 15Z. Light and variable winds this
morning...becoming mainly west 5 to 10 kts after 14Z.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front will stall over the region
through much of the week. The front will help support scattered
thunderstorms and possible restrictions each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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