Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCAE 302344
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
744 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST
TONIGHT PROMOTING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY BECOME LIGHT OR CALM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL REMAIN DECOUPLED OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ABLE TO DROP TO AROUND 60
DEGREES BY MORNING. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES BY
AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S. FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THURSDAY...SO EXPECT THAT DAY TO BE THE
WARMEST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY...LOWS IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP
CHANCES AS A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES
TOWARDS THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM FRIDAY MORNING WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
FROM UPPER SUPPORT PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT...MOVING IT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING WEST TO AFTER MIDNIGHT EAST. POPS FOR
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING HAVE INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND ARE
NOW IN THE GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY...50 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS THE TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE COOLEST NIGHT AT THIS TIME
APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN MORNING WHERE SOME OF THE
COOLER AREAS...PER CLIMATOLOGY...INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES TO START THE TAF PERIOD. STILL EXPECT
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WIND
OVERNIGHT. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04Z AND 14Z. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT...SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED AT AGS/OGB...ESPECIALLY 06Z-13Z. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT CAE/CUB/DNL 09Z-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
ALL SITES AFTER 14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.