Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 261848
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
248 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures
in the forecast through the end of the week. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening. Moisture
and instability will increase for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper level ridge will remain over the southeastern states today
into tonight. At the surface....Atlantic high pressure will ridge
into the region. Warm air aloft combined with weak instability and
subsidence beneath the upper ridge will hold dry weather across
much of the area. 88d showing a few isolated showers this
afternoon as there is enough low level convergence near the lee-
side trough and the sea breeze to bring isolated convection to the
Midlands and CSRA as temperatures have approached the century
mark. Have continued a dry forecast with pops less than 20
percent. Expect afternoon temperatures to top out in the mid 90s
to near 100 degrees with overnight lows in the middle/upper 70s.
Heat indices will range from 102 to around 107 degrees this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to be the dominant feature both aloft
and at the surface on Wednesday. Subsidence aloft will limit
convective development with only isolated diurnal convection
expected, focused mainly along the lee-side trough and also along
the sea breeze. The ARW and NMM hi-resolution models support only
isolated activity. Wednesday will again be hot and steamy with
high temperatures in the upper 90s and dewpoint temperatures in
the 70s. This will result in heat indices generally peaking in the
103 to 106 degree range, thus no heat advisory is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper level ridge will continue over the region on Thursday
before weakening Saturday as a shortwave trough moves into the
mid Mississippi and Ohio river valleys. Only isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Thursday and Friday as development
will be limited by subsidence aloft. The better chances for
convection appear to be over the weekend with scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected. Moisture will increase late Saturday
and Sunday with precipitable water values near 1.9 inches.
Temperatures above normal with highs in the mid/upper 90s and
overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Cumulus will continue developing through the remainder of the
afternoon then diminish with loss of daytime heating this evening.
With very warm temperatures aloft and little support...only
isolated shra/tsra are expected. Will not mention in tafs through
the period. A low level jet around 20 knots with develop tonight
and again combine with light surface winds and warm temperatures
to reduce fog potential. Winds will remain southerly at 7 knots or
less through the period...with gusts to 14 knots between 17z and
27/00z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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