Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 090534
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1234 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016
A cold front will move east of the Midlands this evening. Cold
high pressure behind the front will build into the area through Saturday.
The coldest air of the season so far will be associated with this
air mass. The ridge will be off the coast Sunday and temperatures
will begin to moderate.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A cold front hung up over the Midlands will move east of the
forecast area this evening. Due to limited moisture and downslope
flow, no precipitation is expected, but clouds will linger. Cold,
dry high pressure will build into the area overnight in the wake
of the passing cold front. A 20-25 knot low level jet may help to
keep the boundary layer mixed tonight preventing ideal radiational
cooling but cold advection will be strong enough to drop
temperatures into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Fair cold and dry weather expected this period. Despite plenty of
sunshine on Friday continued cold advection with northerly flow
will limit temperatures across the forecast area in the 40s, some
10-15 degrees colder than normal. By late Friday night, the center
of Canadian surface high pressure will build towards the southern
Appalachians, staying just north of our FA. There remains some
question as to how much wind may remain at the surface with the
center of the high just off to the northwest, but if winds do go
calm, min temps below guidance possible, with a near record low
at CAE of 20 not out of the question.
High to build into the Carolinas Saturday, with zonal westerly
500mb flow on Saturday with mostly clear skies should allow for
slight warming compared to Friday but temperatures will remain
well below normal.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Surface high pressure center will shift off the east coast Sunday,
with lingering ridge axis stretching into the Carolinas. Westerly
flow will continue aloft, with indications of a coastal trough and
weak isentropic lift developing, which could spread cloudiness
into our FA, with possibly some light precipitation near the
Otherwise, the extended forecast remains uncertain with below
average confidence due to continued differences in medium range
model guidance with regards to systems which may affect our
region early to mid next week, and considerable spread among the
ensemble solutions. Given the uncertainty will continue with a
persistence forecast, which is a blend of guidance. This generally
provides slight chance to chance pops Monday through Wednesday.
Both GFS and EC appear to agree in bringing a cold front through,
followed by another cold Canadian air mass into our region late
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions throughout the TAF period.
Drier air advecting into the region. High level clouds will
continue overnight into the morning associated with weak short
wave trough. Mixing associated with the front may keep the low
levels mixed overnight. Generally expect northwest winds around 5
knots. High clouds should thin during the day...and winds
northwest to northeast 5 to 10 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Another cold front may bring precipitation and associated
restrictions Sunday into Monday