Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 070248 AAA
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1048 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...THEN AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION THROUGH LATE
WEEK...LEADING TO A DRIER WARMER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO OUR EAST DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA WITH GENERALLY
CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. NOT MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT SO SOME ISOLATED FOG MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE FEW
HOURS THAT RECEIVED SOME HEAVY RAIN AROUND AUGUSTA AND THE
LUGOFF-ELGIN AND BLYTHEWOOD AREAS. CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR E AND
NE... WITH UPPER HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO RISE SLIGHTLY...AS UPPER
HIGH TO OUR SE BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER EAST INTO OUR FA WITH BEST MOISTURE
LINGERING NEAR THE COAST. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND DIURNAL HEATING
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CHANCES POPS MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTH AND EAST FA
AIDED BY SEA BREEZE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
WEEK...CONTINUING TO GENERALLY REDUCE DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO SLIGHT CHANCE...POSSIBLY LOW END CHANCE S/E FA NEAR
SEA BREEZE...AND PROVIDE A WARMING TREND THU/FRI. TEMPS COULD
POSSIBLY APPROACH 100 BY LATE WEEK AS H85 DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS INDICATING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT TO OUR WEST
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST. ANY UPPER IMPULSES...SURFACE BOUNDARIES...OR REMNANT
MCS...SLIPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION COULD PROMOTE CHANCE POPS
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN EARLY MORNING FOG.

CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
OVERNIGHT BEING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG. WITH EVENING
RAIN AROUND OGB AND AGS ADDING TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR AGS/OGB
HAVE REMAINED WITH MVFR FOG BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 7 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
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