Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 010038
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
738 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. ON SUNDAY THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND RAIN
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT CREATING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE ALONG THE COAST
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WITH VERY
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL IN PLACE AND MOISTURE SLOW TO RECOVER
WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY...AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE POPS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY...BUT WILL FORECAST
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS LATE IN THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR BY MIDNIGHT...AND HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S.

MODELS REMAIN CLOSE ON A MONDAY MORNING PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
WILL STILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE GOOD DRYING
KICKS IN BY THE AFTERNOON. BIGGER ISSUE ON MONDAY WILL REVOLVE
AROUND THE STRONGER WINDS. MODELS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
20 MPH. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SHOWS WIND GUSTS OVER 30
MPH FROM LATE MORNING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY REQUIRE A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE LAKE SHORES. FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALSO DURING THAT TIME AS
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTIES COME INTO PLAY DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE. THERE ARE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
TIMING...STRENGTH...AND MOISTURE DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. AT THIS TIME BOTH MODELS DO SEEM TO AGREE
THAT WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE US ONE MORE DRY DAY. AFTER THAT...THE GFS
BRINGS A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RAINFALL WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE COAST...KEEPING THE CWA DRY. WILL
INCREASE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT NO HIGHER
THAN CHANCE AT THIS TIME. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
FRIDAY. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...THERE IS A RISK OF POSSIBLE FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE DRYING
ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD.

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL
PREVENT FOG OVERNIGHT DESPITE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST ON SUNDAY. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW SOME MOISTENING AT LOW LEVELS AND LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON. SOME POSSIBILITIES OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE 18Z AT AGS/DNL
SUNDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$









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