Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCAE 311800
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
WITH A MOIST EAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHEST PWAT...UP TO 1.8 INCHES...STRETCHED ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN INTO THE UPSTATE. SHOULD SEE PWAT INCREASING
TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY COUPLED WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA THIS AFTERNOON THE EVENING.
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA SHIFTING
NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES AND SLOW
PRECIP MOVEMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER THROUGH CAPES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG
AND LIFTED INDICES DOWN TO MINUS 4C.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER LOW 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BEGIN TO
DIG ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES. CLOUDS SHOULD
LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PWAT VALUES AND SLOW STORM MOTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED AND WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROMOTING
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER
THROUGH TUESDAY...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY MONDAY...
DECREASING TO LOW CHANCE BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR 90 THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COVERAGE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS INCREASING ACROSS THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET
AS AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PROBABILITY
FOR THUNDER IS LOW. HAVE INDICATED TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS WITH
MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. MOIST EAST FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL DEPEND
ON WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.
MOST MODELS INDICATING IFR/MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER 01/05Z. BEST
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM 01/05Z TO 01/14Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AT TIMES FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO AN EASTERLY ISENTROPIC
FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$





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