Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 210950
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
450 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Much above normal temperatures will continue through the end of
the week. High pressure centered off the coast will bring warm and
moist air into region through Saturday. A cold front will cross the
area Sunday bringing a chance of showers Sunday through Monday.
Temperatures will cool to near normal by Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Patchy dense fog was affecting the eastern Midlands this morning. A
low level jet over the western Midlands created enough boundary
layer mixing to favor low clouds instead of fog. The fog across the
east should dissipate by 10 am.

There will be little change in our weather pattern in the near term.
Southerly flow around an offshore ridge of high pressure will
continue to bringing unseasonably warm and humid conditions
across the area. This area of high pressure will keep showers
west of the forecast area. Morning low clouds and fog will give
way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. We can once again
expect near record highs this afternoon in the upper 70s and low
80s with lows tonight in the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure and the upper level ridge will again dominate
the region for Thursday keeping a frontal system to the northwest of
the area. A southerly flow at the surface and aloft with plenty of
moisture will remain over the forecast area providing partly to
mostly cloudy skies. Areas of late night/early morning fog can be
expected. Any rainfall potential will be limited due to a capping
inversion. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s and low 80s for
daytime highs and overnight lows around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highly amplified upper level pattern will remain from the
central Pacific through the western Atlantic through Saturday
then begin breaking down into early next week. This will keep
the surface high pressure off the coast of the Carolinas and the
upper level ridge over the eastern US through Saturday. With the
high dominating at the surface low level winds will remain southerly
allowing ample moisture to persist over the region with partly to
mostly cloudy skies and potential for early morning fog through the
weekend.

The next cold front is expected to cross the region Sunday or Sunday
night then stall along the coast through Monday. High pressure
building in at the surface and aloft will push the front out to sea
on Tuesday for the return of dry weather.

Much above normal temperatures Sunday are expected to moderate to
the mid 60s to lower 70s for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Persistent southerly low level flow will keep low level moisture
high over the region, with dry air at the mid and high levels,
which are favorable conditions for fog development. MVFR stratus
has developed at AGS/DNL, with IFR stratus elsewhere. Fog has
advected in from the coast, and LIFR visibility has been
occurring at OGB. However, Bufkit time heights still showing a
20-25 knot low level jet which may favor stratus more than fog,
and therefore confidence is a bit lower on dense fog developing
at the other TAF sites. Fog may move into CUB shortly, and
perhaps CAE, but less certain at AGS/DNL. Conditions will again
be slow to improve until mid morning so will show a gradual
improvement after 15z, with VFR conditions returning by around
19z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread IFR stratus and fog may
occur during the early morning hours over the next few days due
to high low-level moisture in an onshore flow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
For CAE...
The normal high temperature for today is 62F.
The record high for today is 81F last set in 1997.

For AGS...
The normal high temperature for today is 64F.
The record high for today is 80F last set in 2011.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$



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