Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 280521
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
121 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. A COLD AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY. NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE CENTER OF
A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREPARES TO SWING INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT THE REMAINING SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY AROUND 10Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST AROUND
DAYBREAK ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AT SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MIDLANDS WITH UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH COLD ADVECTION...BUT LOW LEVELS SLOWLY DRYING OUT TOWARD
EVENING. DESPITE COLD ADVECTION WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 50S MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY A
LITTLE WARMER CSRA. MODIFIED CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION...SO WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IS OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS INCLUDING PEE DEE AREA.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONSISTENT WITH MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND
30 CENTRAL AND CSRA. AIR MASS MODIFIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION DEVELOPS AS RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FRONT IS PROGGED TO COME THROUGH MONDAY...12Z MODELS APPEAR A
LITTLE FASTER MOVING FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY...THEN A RETURN OF THE RAINFALL CHANCES
BY THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AND
MOISTURE INCREASES. AIR MASS BECOMES UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION
FRIDAY...HOWEVER MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AND CONFIDENCE LOW
ON DETAILS...BU ENSEMBLE POPS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE. WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS.

WINDS THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR
AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$






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