Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
FXUS62 KCAE 240905
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
505 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Dry, high pressure will settle over the region. Temperatures will
be warmer Today with some air mass modification. Another cold
front will move through the area this evening with a reinforcing
shot of cool air through Midweek. Slight chance of showers late
week as a fast moving system moves through the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front currently situated near the Ohio River Valley region
will be moving southward during the day. This front will be
poised to move into the northern cwa late this afternoon. Ahead of
this front, some thin cirrus will move through the area through
the day, but mostly clear skies expected. Winds will become
westerly during the day ahead of the approaching cold front, with
wind speeds between 5 and 10 mph. Temperatures should be warmer
than the past few days, climbing above normal ahead of the front.
Readings by this afternoon will be in the upper 70s north, to the
lower 80s south. Moisture continues to be limited across the area
with the westerly winds. Forecast remains dry.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...The front will be south of the area by 06Z with winds
veering to northeasterly. Continued with a dry forecast due to
limited moisture. Skies will be mostly clear, but a 30 knot
nocturnal low level jet will promote mixing and prevent optimal
radiational conditions. Lows generally in the upper 40s to lower
Tuesday and Tuesday night...The forecast area will be situated
between a broad upper ridge over the center of the country and
broad trough off the east coast which will promote northwesterly
flow aloft. High pressure will ridge into the forecast area from
the northwest at the surface. A cool and dry airmass will build
into the region. Slightly below normal high temperatures are
forecast, in the lower to middle 70s. Overnight lows in the 40s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper ridge over the center of the country will promote
northwesterly flow aloft over the southeastern states through mid
week. Surface high pressure will ridge into the area from the
north on Wednesday before shifting offshore on Thursday. A
surface low over the Great Lakes region early Thursday morning
will shift northeastward toward New England. This system will
bring a weak cold front across the area Thursday night/early
Friday. Moisture will be limited throughout the period, so
continued with a dry forecast except during the Thursday/Friday
time frame maintained a slight chance. More dry high pressure will
build in from the west late Friday into Saturday, with another dry
cold front moving into the area Saturday night/Sunday. Seasonable
or above normal temperatures are forecast during the period.
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Very high confidence for VFR conditions throughout the TAF
Light westerly winds early this morning will increase to between 5
and 10 knots ahead of an approaching cold front through the day.
Low-level jet this morning around 20 knots at 1 kft. Surface winds
should remain just strong enough to limit llws, so have not
included in tafs. Will continue to monitor through the morning. Skies
mostly clear through the period, with mainly scattered high cirrus
the only clouds. Dry forecast. The cold front will move into the
area by 00z, pushing south of taf sites by 06z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible Thursday and
Thursday night as a weak cold front crosses the region.