Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KCHS 261806
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT...LIFTING
AWAY FROM THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEARING HAS FINALLY ARRIVED OVER THE SOUTH/SW ZONES AND WILL
PROGRESS STEADILY NE/EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FINALLY MAKING
IT THROUGH THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DURING MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR...WITH HIGHS NOW TO RANGE FROM MID 50S
NORTH...TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL ZONES AND 60 OR EVEN LOWER 60S FAR
SOUTH.

TONIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH...ALONG
WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A SIGNIFICANT UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN THE
EVENING...BUT MAY RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT LATE. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE ON THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THURSDAY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AIR AND THE LACK OF ANY NOTABLE SYNOPTIC
FORCING WILL SUPPORT RAIN FREE WEATHER LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO.
COLD ADVECTION ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH WILL
SUPPORT UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE 50S BOTH
AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WILL ALSO
REFLECT THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...WHILE
IMPROVED RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND
FREEZING FOR INLAND AREAS. EXPECT A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ON
SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND A
RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S FAR
NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S FARTHER SOUTH...STILL SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY AGAIN BE NECESSARY ON LAKE
MOULTRIE BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT A WARMING
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS A RESULT...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS FALLING INTO THE
40 DEGREE RANGE. A COLD FRONT FORMING THE LEADING EDGE OF ANOTHER
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT COULD STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS AN INLAND WEDGE FROM
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA.
NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THIS PATTERN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE EDGE OF
THE INLAND WEDGE COULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...EARLY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID CYCLE AS
CLEARING CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE. AT KCHS IT/LL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR VFR WEATHER TO
RETURN...MOST LIKELY BY 22Z.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS DURING EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR AT BOTH AIRFIELDS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A 35-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL TRANSITION INTO
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THESE HIGHER WINDS
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WEST/NW WINDS WILL REACH 15-25 KT FROM
AROUND 1330Z-18Z AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT...AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE LATE TONIGHT TIME FRAME.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
COULD THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE WATERS
AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.