Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 260753
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. BY DAYBREAK
THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS AROUND THE REGION ALONG
WITH HIGH MAINLY THIN CLOUDS. WELL INLAND...SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND GEORGIA AREAS WHERE SOME RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY UNCHANGED...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGE SITTING JUST
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
A BIT MORE ISOLATED TO THE WEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON AS LAYERED
MOISTURE ADVECTION PARAMETERS ARE WEAKER. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE NSSL ARW LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY AS
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR WEAKER THAN ON MONDAY IN THIS
REGION. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA BUT A SILENT POP IS IN ORDER WITH EXPECTATIONS THAT ANYTHING
WOULD BE SPOTTY/BRIEF. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S COAST TO
UPPER 80S INLAND. INLAND TEMPS ARE A BIT TRICKY IN A FEW AREAS AS
READINGS COULD GO HIGHER AND REACH 90 DEGREES IF CONVECTION
REMAINS SPOTTY TO THE WEST OF I-95.

THIS EVENING CONVECTIVE RAINS MAY INCREASE OVER EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA AS VARIOUS BOUNDARIES MINGLE AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BRUSH AS FAR EASTWARD AS REIDSVILLE...METTER...AND MILLEN. WE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP GOING A FEW HOURS IN THE EVENING IN THAT
REGION. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. WE INCLUDED SOME PATCHY
FOG IN NW ZONES AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW NOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN DEBRIS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE EXPECT TO SEE A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY INLAND.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY WHILE
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AT THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE AN
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH WEAK CAPPING WILL EXIST FOR THE BRUNT OF THE
PERIOD...ONSHORE MOISTURE FLUX WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 AND A DAILY SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS. A MORE PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING ON TUESDAY SHOULD
SUPPORT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WITH INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT BUT
SATELLITE AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS BOTH PAINT SIGNIFICANT
SPACIAL UNCERTAINTIES. STRATOCUMULUS SHOULD INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AND WE TRENDED MORE TOWARD SOME TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING. ISOLATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL MUCH TOO LOW FOR TAF
INCLUSIONS AT THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW BUT WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE MORE SE THROUGH
TONIGHT GIVEN THE FORECAST FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO SLOWLY
SAG SOUTH WITH TIME. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN
15 KT WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL UPTICKS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
DURING THE SEA BREEZE OSCILLATION CYCLE TODAY.

ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT...
HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS...WE OPTED FOR A MODERATE RISK ALONG COASTAL CHARLESTON
COUNTY BEACHES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE
A FEW RIP CURRENTS WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AT TYBEE TODAY BUT
OVERALL A LOW RISK WAS MAINTAINED THERE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL


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