Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 102015
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY
STALL NORTH OF THE AREA...BEFORE DISSIPATING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE
REGION. OTHERWISE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL
LIKELY SHIFT A WEAK SFC FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP MOISTURE TO
THE AREA...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL
INITIALLY REMAIN ALONG AN INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE BEFORE GREATER
COVERAGE OCCURS INLAND.

HAVE MAINTAINED THE OVERALL TREND IN THE PRECIP FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING...WITH HIGHEST POPS NEAR 60 INLAND WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE SEABREEZE ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR. SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE SEABREEZE PUSHES
FURTHER INLAND. PWATS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD REACH 2.00 INCHES BY SUNSET. WEAK WIND FIELDS
ALONG WITH POOR MID LVL LAPSE RATES DURING THE TIME OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE LEVELS THIS EVENING SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MAINLY INLAND. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...A
FEW PULSE TYPE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE INITIALLY...BEFORE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEPLETES AVAILABLE ENERGY
AND IS FOLLOWED BY SUNSET. EXPECT A DECREASING TREND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LOOKS A BIT UNSETTLED WITH A STALLED FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH INCREASED CLOUD/RAIN
COVERAGE...MAINLY LOWER 90S INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THUS RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESSENING EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
SATURDAY AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH...WHICH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S...SLOWLY SINKS TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
FLOW AT LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS A FEW
DEGS ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS THE MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...WENT WITH HIGHER END CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW.

BY THURSDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH SEEMS TO STALL AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO FLATTEN AS
THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASES SOME. THUS...CLIMO/CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNALLY BASED CONVECTION SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. TEMPS NEAR
CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT
EITHER TERMINAL...BUT ESPECIALLY AT THE SAV TERMINAL WHERE A
SEABREEZE WILL BE SHIFTING INLAND SHORTLY. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED
TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-22Z AT THE
SAV TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE CHS
TERMINAL ARE LESS...SO HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS BY SUNSET THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO MOSTLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
INCREASE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KTS...ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS COULD VARY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE A BIT EARLY
NEXT WEEK THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE...CLOSE TO 7 PM...WILL BE ELEVATED BUT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS.
HOWEVER...IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING LOCALIZED
FLOODING COULD OCCUR.

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES DUE TO THE FULL MOON/PERIGEE AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING NEAR
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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