Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 211940
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
340 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN DEEPEN AND STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. CLOSER TO HOME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS EITHER DIMINISHED OR EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT DECREASED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERCAST. MOST SPOTS
HAVE REACHED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 40`S...BUT IT WILL FEEL COOLER WITH A BRISK NORTH
WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE STUBBORN
LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
BREAKS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY LATE DAY
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SNAKE IN FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE EXITING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH THE LOW STALLING AND DEEPENING OFF THE
COAST WILL MAINTAIN SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BENIGN WEATHER DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH
POSITIONED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LATEST GFS IS MUCH DRIER THAN THE NAM...SO BEST CASE
SCENARIO WE SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY...AND WORSE
CASE..WE GET A FEW SLIGHT SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE SECOND HALF OF
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING DURING THE
PERIOD.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
PRECIP.  ANOTHER FRONT MAY IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY
WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SHOWED.  EITHER WAY IT
APPEARS THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF TILL AFTER THE PERIOD
ENDS.  TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ONLY A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE PERIOD. A PIECE OF ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS FEATURE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRECIP FALLING ACROSS NE
OH AND NW PA AT THE MOMENT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SO COULD SEE A BRIEF EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIP IN THE EAST. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR MOST
IF NOT THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE EAST. SOME PATCHES OF IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE OH. SOME DRIER
AIR IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING NW OH. THIS HAS
CAUSED CIGS TO LIFT TO NEAR VFR. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN WHERE THEY
ARE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN BECOME VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
WEST COULD CLEAR LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW TO N
FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET AND TO NO MORE
THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WED THRU WED NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
STIFF NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON THE LAKE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
ALONG THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE WITH BOUY 5 CONTINUING TO SHOW BETTER
THAN 20 KNOTS.  LESSER WINDS PERSIST ON THE WEST AND EAST ENDS OF
THE LAKES.  SPEEDS ARE PEAKING NOW THEN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES.  HAVE SHORTENED THE
DURATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT AND NOW HAVE IT ENDING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.  LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST
FURTHER.  THE FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.  THE FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES
WESTERLY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTH.  A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT BRIEFLY
CAUSING THE FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWEST BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MAINLY
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






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