Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 131140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
640 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN TO PENNSYLVANIA
AND NEW YORK STATE BY MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY YET
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ARCTIC AIR HAS NOW SETTLED IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES...DECIDED TO LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES
IN THE WEST DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL TAKE PLACE.
THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 12 DEGREES. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY NOT GET ABOVE 10 IN THE EAST.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE AND WE ARE NOTICING A MORE
AGGRESSIVE LAKE HURON FETCH THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MIGRATING WEST
INTO ASHTABULA COUNTY. MORE MULTI BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE ARE STARTING
TO DEVELOP AS WELL. SO...LAKE EFFECT WARNING/ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ARCTIC COLD FRONT SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR TO FOLLOW. INITIAL COLD FRONT LAST EVENING
DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND THIS SECONDARY FRONT
FORCED TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS THE COLD
AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA TODAY...I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS WILL BE
A WAIT AND SEE ON WHETHER I HAVE TEMPERATURES TOO WARM IN THE
WEST. GUT FEELING NOW IS THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 10 FOR A
HIGH TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AND
THEREFORE WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT.

AS FAR AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOES...BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST. ONE BAND IS OVER CLEVELAND HOPKINS AIRPORT
INTO SUMMIT AND STARK COUNTIES. A SECOND BAND OF LIGHTER INTENSITY
WAS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN LORAIN COUNTY. A LAKE HURON
CONNECTION EXTENDED A BAND ACROSS ERIE COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA.
NARROW BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW
BANDS BUT THEY ARE MOVING SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL SPREAD OUT THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A WIDER AREA RATHER THAN A VERY NARROW BAND.
WILL HOLD ON TO THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FOR THE SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST ALLOWING A VERY WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST
OVER THE REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FORCE HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALOFT SIGNALING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES AT MOST IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO THE EAST.

TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE AS SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. HOWEVER...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE COLDER
THAN THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS SHOULD BE THE EXTENT OF THE ARCTIC AIR INVASION AS SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING. A COUPLE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DIFFERENCES AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AGAIN TODAY.  LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY.  THE BACK
EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE ACROSS
THE AREA AT THE START OF THE DAY.  WILL TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT BY
MIDDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL RIGHT ON IT`S HEALS AND WILL LIKELY
SEE MORE LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE A FAST MOVER AND BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD AGAIN BE DRY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN.  THE AREA WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
BY THURSDAY AND REALLY WARM ON FRIDAY.  WILL LIKELY SEE MORE PRECIP
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE AND THIS HAS CHANGED THE LOCATION OF
THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE KCLE
AREA BUT THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE TO THE EAST TODAY AS A LAKE HURON
FETCH HAS GOTTEN SET UP. KERI REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THIS BAND BUT
SHOULD GET BACK INTO THE SNOW LATER THIS MORNING AS WINDS BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE WEST. KCLE COULD SEE SOME BURSTS OF IFR SNOW BUT
VSBYS SHOULD NOT REMAIN DOWN VERY LONG. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SNOW
BANDS COMING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AS WELL. SOME OF THESE COULD
REACH KTOL AND KFDY LATER THIS MORNING. RIGHT NOW A LOT OF THE
AREA IS CLEAR BUT EXPECT STRATO CU BROKEN CIGS TO DEVELOP
TOWARD MIDDAY MOST AREAS. EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME CLEAR IN THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
WITH THE GUSTINESS GONE BY 21Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW
ESPECIALLY NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.  SPEEDS
SHOULD BE PEAKING AND EXPECT THE FLOW TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.
BY LATE TONIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND THE THREAT FOR
ICING WILL BE OVER.  HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL BE OVER OHIO AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE LAKE DURING THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING.  A PAIR OF LOWS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THESE
SYSTEMS.  IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
NECESSITATE ANY HEADLINES.  GIVEN THE COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT
36 HOURS EXPECT THERE TO BE A LOT OF ICE ON THE LAKE AGAIN BY EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-013.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ061-
     142>149-162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA


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