Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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289
FXUS61 KCLE 261940
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
340 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure extended from Wisconsin to Texas along
a cold front. Low pressure will strengthen in Arkansas along
the front this evening and move north to the central Great Lakes
overnight. Thursday the low will continue north into Canada and
the trailing cold front will sweep east across the area.
Thursday night and early Friday high pressure will briefly build
into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Satellite loop shows an upper disturbance moving into the mean
upper trough in Texas with deep convection developing ahead of
it through northeast Texas Arkansas and Missouri. This short
wave will move through the base of the trough this evening
reaching the Tennessee Valley overnight giving a negative tilt
to the whole system. This should effectively keep convection to
our west overnight. Will keep forecast partly cloudy/mostly
clear through the evening and much of the overnight.
Towards/just before sunrise however will begin to increase
clouds in the west.  Lows in the lower 60s

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will move east across the area during the day as the
deepening surface low moves north of the central lakes into
Canada. Guidance showing only chance pops for western counties
Thursday but feel that with the strength of the system and the
deep moisture feeding into the area favor keeping likely pops in
for the west. Do believe however that there will be more
thunderstorms east in the afternoon vs west in the morning so
will have a chance of thunderstorms mentioned along with the
likely pops. Further east will have thunderstorm chances
agree with pops. Some storms could be strong to near severe
limits. By late afternoon will end pops west and clouds should
break. Thursday night and early Friday weak high pressure will
build in. Friday afternoon however isentropic lift in warm
advection ahead of low pressure in the central plains will move
into the area from the west. Could see a few showers/storms
west toward evening so will have a small pop. Friday night as a
surface waves moves to our north this developing front will drop
south into the area. The GFS takes the boundary a bit further
south vs the NAM however both show ample moisture across the
area. Still some question as to how much forcing will be in
place for the day as the best unstable air drops to the OH river
by afternoon. Will go with likely pops in the afternoon but
well keep thunderstorms at chance. Low pressure will move north
through the central plains Sunday lifting the front back as a
warm front on Sunday.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another upper level low will move out of the OK/KS area Sunday and
slow move ne across the lakes thru Tue then another upper low will
dig into the MS valley by late Wed. This will lead to a wet pattern
with fronts and waves of low pressure pushing through the region.
The on and off nature of the bands of rain should help to limit the
flooding threat.

Temps will trend cooler as the series of cold fronts move thru.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR should prevail until late Thu morning when shra/tsra start to
push in from the west leading to areas of non-vfr. There is a small
chance that a little mvfr fog or haze could develop toward daybreak
for the inland sites. A lakebreeze will try and keep ERI winds east
to ne this afternoon. Otherwise, south winds of 10 to 20 knots will
prevail thru 18z with gusts of 20 to 25 knots at times.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon into early Friday morning and again Sat into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds should stay just under sca levels into Thu then veer to
west later Thu and Thu night with the passage of a cold front. The
front will stall then briefly move back north of the lake Fri before
getting pulled back se of the lake by Sat. The front will again
stall and then lift back north of the lake briefly Sun night before
getting pulled well se of the lake Mon and Mon night as a stronger
low lifts nne of the lake. Winds will be changing back and forth as
the front wavers back and forth across the lake Fri thru Mon while
wind speeds should stay under 20 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Adams



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