115
FXUS61 KCLE 100524
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
124 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough over the region today will drift to the eastern
Great Lakes by tonight. Low pressure moves across Ontario into
New York State on Saturday as a cold front crosses the region
from west to east. High pressure briefly builds over Ohio on
Sunday before the next weakening cold front moves southward over
the region by Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface low pressure has moved east of the region but we still
have an upper level trough that needs to pass overhead through
the day. So expect some weak lift to persist across the region
through the morning with light rain/sprinkles expected. The
rain ends from west to east late this morning into the afternoon
with it persisting the longest across NW PA. It then looks to
be dry tonight with cloud cover decreasing.

Plenty of cloud cover though sunrise with lows remaining in the
40`s. It will remain cool today with highs ranging from the mid
50`s across the east to the mid 60`s across NW OH. The decrease
in the cloud cover and light winds tonight should allow
temperatures to range from the upper 30`s to upper 40`s. We will
need to monitor for some patchy frost across inland NE OH into
inland NW PA. At this point it does not look widespread enough
to issue a frost advisory.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A compact upper level trough will deepen as it digs south across the
Great Lakes region on Saturday. A short window of warm advection is
expected on Saturday ahead of surface low pressure which will
move southeast across lower Michigan and Lake Erie through
Saturday evening. A narrow ribbon of theta-e advection will be
pulled north ahead of the deepening trough. Given the stronger
dynamics, there is good confidence is showers with a chance of
thunderstorms during the day on Saturday, before exiting to the
east Saturday evening. Cooler air will be reinforced behind this
system Saturday night with 850mb temperatures of 1-4C. Although
not quite cold enough for pure lake effect showers Saturday
night, shallow lift along within the broad cyclonic flow should
maintain a chance of showers from north central Ohio and east
across the snowbelt area. Lows are forecast to reach the mid 40s
but will clouds and mixing will keep temperatures from dropping
too far below normal.

A surface ridge will build north into the Ohio Valley on Sunday with
conditions drying out and skies clearing. A warming trend will get
underway from the west with temperatures in NW Ohio approaching 70
degrees while Erie PA remains closer to 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term forecast will start out with above normal temperatures
with ridging aloft. This occurs ahead of a trough moving through the
northern stream north of the lakes and a closed upper level low
meandering east across the Plains towards the Tennessee/Ohio
Valleys. A slow moving cold front is forecast to approach from
the north on Tuesday while moisture gradually increases from the
southwest ahead of the low. There will be chances of showers and
thunderstorms through the mid-week period but coverage and
timing will be impacted by the interaction of these two features
as the low moves east through the Ohio Valley. Most models
indicate drier air will arrive by Thursday with temperatures
trending warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A few area of light rain or sprinkles remain across the region
as we wait for an upper level trough to cross the region
through the day. VFR cloud covers the entire region but do think
there could be some patchy MVFR ceilings where the light
rain/sprinkles are most persistent. Otherwise drier air will
spread across the region from west to east through the afternoon
with ceilings gradually dissipating.

Northerly winds of 5-10 knots may become gusty for a few hours
through early afternoon. Gusty may reach 20 knots. The winds
then decrease by evening as the winds shift to the northwest and
eventually to the southwest overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
into Saturday night. Non-VFR possible on Tuesday in rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight with
northerly winds of 15 to 25 knots and waves of 3 to 5 feet. The far
western and eastern near shore zones may be able to be cancelled a
little earlier as winds and waves drop off. The trough across the
lake will relax through the day on Friday with a ridge of high
pressure briefly expanding north into the Central Great Lakes.
Another fast moving area of low pressure will move southeast across
Lake Erie on Saturday with variable wind directions, initially out
of the southwest at 10-15 knots, veering to northwesterly at 10-15
knots. High pressure builds east across the lake on Sunday with
winds and waves of less than 15 knots. Winds will increase into the
15-20 knot range Sunday night into Monday ahead of a slow moving
front but given offshore flow, Small Craft Advisories are not
expected.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for
     LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...KEC