Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 240833
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
333 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TODAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON
TUESDAY. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT 06Z THE MODELS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DEEPENING LOW OVER
LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS LOW SHOULD DEEPEN SEVERAL MORE MB TODAY WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TODAY. LOCAL SCHEMES AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT
MARGINAL HIGH WARNING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO. THESE AREAS WILL BE IN THE SWEET
SPOT FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND EXPECT HIGHER ELEVATION LOCALES
LIKE KMFD TO REACH 50 KNOTS TODAY. STRONG SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE WIND
GUSTS. SPC HAS HIGH-LIGHTED THE AREA FOR GENERAL THUNDER. DON`T
SEE THERE BEING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LIGHTNING SO WILL CONTINUE
WITHOUT A MENTION OF THUNDER. EASTERN AREAS WILL GET A WIND
ADVISORY FOR LATER TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME THE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE
WINDING DOWN. MORE PRECIP IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE MOISTENING
LOW LEVEL FLOW. WILL STICK WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIKELY WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PEAKS IN THE OVERCAST ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS MORNING.

THE OTHER CHALLENGE TODAY IS TEMPS. READINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCH THEIR WAY UP OVERNIGHT AND ARE ALREADY AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE GONE WAY ABOVE GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE GONE BY THE START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
EXPECT WINDS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ALL
AREAS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SURGE INTO THE AREA WITH LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PRECIP AFTER 03Z BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT IN NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE WRAP
AROUND FLOW. SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NW PA. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD AIR
WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS 850
MB TEMPS DIP TO AROUND NEG 10. WILL NEED TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS
GOING TO THE EAST OF KCLE. THE FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
UNFAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD WEST BACK
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
WORDING ALL AREAS WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE THREAT FOR
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT
IN THE WAY OF QPF OR SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE AREA WILL RETURN TO WINTER LIKE TEMPS. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FAVORING TOWARD THE MILD SIDE DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAKES AN ATTEMPT TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THEN FLATTENS AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...SYSTEMS
WILL TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. THIS WILL TRANSITION
FROM THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WE SEE OVER THANKSGIVING DAY TO A
WARMING TREND BY SATURDAY. MODELS IN SOME WHAT AGREEMENT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND REACH THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH
AND IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. NO STRONG
COLD AIR OUTBREAKS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL
BE TRENDING TEMPERATURES MILDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO THE
OVERALL TRENDS THAT ARE DEVELOPING.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AND THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR KEEPING THE ARCTIC AIR MASSES OUT OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND AS
THIS HAPPENS THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.  A BREAK
WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR ON MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND
NW PA AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. SOME SHOWERS
AND MAY BE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES TONIGHT AS THE
LOW MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.

ON MONDAY AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH STRONG WINDS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND BEHIND IT IN THE COLD ADVECTION.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
IN TURN WILL CAUSE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS TO INCREASE OVER
THE LAKES REGION. ALREADY HAVE GALE WARNINGS POSTED THAT GO INTO
EFFECT AT 9 AM THIS MORNING FOR LAKE ERIE. WILL NOT HOIST A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BECAUSE GALES COULD BEGIN SOONER THIS MORNING.
ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE.

STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO PLUMMET AS WELL.  EXPECTING
WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO MAYBE AS LOW AS 4 FEET BELOW CHART DATUM.
LOW WATER ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN BASIN.

WINDS DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND EXPECTING GALES
TO BE DOWN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BY WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY
BUT INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL THEN BACK AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ012-089.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ011-013-014-020>023-031>033-038.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001-002.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ061-145>149-165>169.
     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>144-162>164.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.