Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 231356
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
956 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND IT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DRY AIR AND FULL SUN IS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS DIPPED INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA. SOME VERY SPOTTY DENSE FOG
MAY OCCUR THROUGH 9 AM MAINLY IN THE WAYNE...HOLMES AND STARK
COUNTY AREAS. THE THREAT OF PATCHY FROST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL START OFF WESTERLY AND WITH THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE NEAR 10C...SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE ERIE PA LAKESHORE. THEY SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AND NONE THE LESS MOSTLY SUNNY. ELSEWHERE THE AIRMASS
WILL BE DRY AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SUNNY. FORECAST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYS. SOME CIRRUS COULD BE AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. THE CIRRUS SHOULD BE
FAIRLY THIN. SOME PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WENT TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS
AND USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE LOWS.
TONIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NOT HAVE TO
WORRY ABOUT FROST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY...AND REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  A SECONDARY HIGH WILL DROP OUT OF
CANADA MONDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY.  ALL TOLD
EXTENDED WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND WARM...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ASIDE FROM PATCHY MVFR BR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE WILL PROVIDE QUIET CONDITIONS
ON THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND.  THE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND MOVE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY...BUT A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB






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