Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 230834
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
434 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley will deepen as it moves
north across the Great Lakes today into tonight pulling a strong
cold front across the area. The low will slowly move north into
Ontario on Tuesday and a trough of low pressure aloft and at the
surface will linger across the Great Lakes through mid-week. High
pressure will slide across the area on Thursday. The next cold
front will approach on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Waiting for the wave of low pressure on the front to move north in
conjunction with the upper low that is opening up and lifting out.
The front and rain will be slow to move east until the wave passes.
In the meantime we will continue to see a dry down slope southeast
flow. Eventually the upper dynamics and deep moisture will win out
and rain will overspread the area, especially this afternoon and
evening. Cannot rule out a lightning strike somewhere as the
stronger upward motion crosses the area but will not specifically
mention thunderstorms. The heaviest rain will shift north and east
of the area tonight. Temperatures will warm to around 70 in most
areas before the rain arrives and some sections of NE OH and NW PA
will climb into the lower and mid 70s, the last of the warm weather.

The low level jet will increase today, especially as the surface low
begins to deepen as it moves north into the Great Lakes later today
and tonight. The atmosphere is warm and relatively stable now but as
the rain showers arrive the downward transfer of wind will be
efficient and the south to southeast wind will be enhanced
especially in the downslope areas. The increase in the low level jet
should occur just as the showers arrive at Erie County, PA later
this afternoon and evening and there is potential for 40-45 knot
wind gusts there. Will issue a wind advisory for Erie County, PA for
late afternoon into tonight. Elsewhere across northeast OH and
northwest PA wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots are likely. We will have
to watch for stronger wind gusts with the passage of the cold front
from west to east this evening.

Almost as fast as the first upper low lifts out, a second strong
short wave is progged to drop into the trough and close off. This
will probably push a few more showers across the area on Tuesday
along with significantly cooler air. Highs on Tuesday will only be
in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The low across the Great Lakes will continue to fill and open
through mid week and as another potent and digging trough approaches
for the second half of the week. Some showers will remain in the
cool cyclonic flow Tuesday night and Wednesday. Wednesday will be
the coolest day of the work week and it will definitely feel it.
With still a bit of a breeze and sub-zero H8 temps, have lowered
highs to just a few degrees on either side of 50. Ridging will be
brief on Thursday and a warm front will lift north across the area
helping slightly to dig us out of the thermal trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another push of cold air arrives for the weekend as shortwave energy
digs a sizable trough across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. There
still is some spread in the timing of the cold front, but it looks
to fall sometime on Friday with showers developing overhead. The
cold air behind this system is colder and surges with two waves to
round out the weekend. It is still to far out to know what the
precipitation potential may be. Have some precip mentioned through
the weekend.  Left it as all rain for now. Highs fall back around 50
again, but a day topping out in the mid/upper 40s is entirely
possible. Lows will be in the 30s away from the lake this weekend,
especially the second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Low pressure will track across the midwest to the central Great
Lakes today into tonight. Rain will spread from southwest to
northeast across the area today, mainly this afternoon.
Ceilings will come down to MVFR with local IFR especially across
northwest Ohio this afternoon and evening. The south wind will
become gusty with gusts 25 to 35 knots with 40 knots possible
near KERI by late afternoon and evening. Visibilities in the
heavier showers will average 3 to 5 miles with local IFR
visibilities possible. A thunderstorm is not out of the
question.

OUTLOOK...Areas of Non-VFR in rain showers through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Unsettled conditions expected on the lake much of the week. Small
craft advisory conditions will begin later this afternoon as low
pressure across the lower Ohio Valley deepens considerably and
tracks north-northeast to northern lower MI by this evening. South-
southeast winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon and
then to 30 knots for tonight. Winds will be between 20 and 30 knots
for much of the time from tonight through Wednesday. Wednesday winds
become more westerly and a brief ridge works across the Ohio Valley.
Will need to monitor closely for the potential for Gales over the
next couple of days. There are a few times from now through
Wednesday that the lake could touch Gales, but so far that looks to
be more the case across the Canadian waters. Gale force gusts
likely. For the end of the week southwest winds increase again for
Thursday and Friday with a northern Plains/northern Great Lakes low
track.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Thursday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Oudeman



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