Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 161717

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1217 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

Low pressure from the southern Plains will track to the Great Lakes
by Tuesday and Quebec by Wednesday. A warm front will lift north
across the area today and early tonight. The associated cold front
will move across the area on Tuesday. High pressure will build in
from the west Tuesday night and Wednesday. The high will shift east
on Thursday. Low pressure is expected to track across the midwest
on Friday.


Scattered light showers have been filling in across central Ohio along
the leading edge of theta-e advection near 850mb. Raised pops to
40-50% as this moisture continues to push northeast today
although showers will be brief and qpf of only a T-0.02.
Temperatures have warmed above the freezing mark in all areas and
removed the slight chance of freezing rain from the forecast. Will
still need to monitor temperatures just after sunset in NW PA but
this is looking like less of a problem as dewpoints are expected
to gradually creep up to near freezing.

Original "Today" discussion... The models are trending a bit
slower with the onset of precipitation and there is not much
reaching the ground anywhere nearby. That being said, cannot rule
out some light rain/sprinkles developing across northwest Ohio by
mid/late morning. Plenty of warm air aloft. Temperatures at the
surface will be slow to rise in the Toledo area with the remnants
of arctic air, a light east wind, clouds and virga. The forecast
will bring a slight chance in this morning with temperatures at or
below freezing but given the uncertainty on the arrival of precip
and whether there will be any measurable precip will not issue any
advisories at this time and will continue to monitor. Elsewhere
clouds will thicken up and a sprinkle or light shower may develop
this afternoon. Forecast highs near the cooler guidance with mid
30s around Toledo and upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere.


Temperatures will continue to rise tonight with the exception of
perhaps losing a few degrees at sunset. Rain will overspread the
area. Temperatures may be near freezing in eastern Erie and Crawford
counties PA and depending on the timing of the onset of the rain,
cannot rule out localized freezing rain.

Some elevated cape develops overnight into Tuesday morning and
the low level jet is progged to increase nicely but given the fact
that the system is occluding with modest upward motion and limited
cape will not include thunder at this point. QPF should remain
roughly a half an inch or so which should not present any
significant flood risk. If any heavier convective showers or
thunder were to develop then we would have to watch basin rainfall

Not much cold air behind the system especially for January. Rather
than a change to snow we may just see drizzle or sprinkle as the
trough aloft passes overhead Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Not sure if there will be much clearing on Wednesday. Subsidence
increases and there would seem to be drier air in the lower layers
from the west but am always suspicious this time of year under the
inversion. Will allow for some clearing across northwest Ohio.
Temperatures still above normal with highs in the upper 30s and
lower 40s.


Long term pattern looks warm and wet, with broad eastern CONUS
ridging and several embedded systems lifting northward into the
region in a return flow regime. Highs generally in the upper 40s to
mid 50s expected Thursday through at least Monday, with lows
generally in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Right now, have chance pops in for Friday with slight chance Friday
night. Models are in decent agreement with the low lifting into the
region, but some subtle differences preclude anything more than
chance pops at this time. Maintaining dry forecast Saturday/Saturday
night given lower confidence and a lack of strong forcing, but bring
back high chance pops Sunday through Monday as an upper low deepens
from the southern Plains and slowly moves through the Ohio valley.


.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Patchy light rain in the west...not all on radar is hitting the
ground. Temps have risen above freezing everywhere except the
Western Erie Lakeshore. So by next hour expect threat of -fzra or
-fzdz to end.

IFR conditions will spread slowly NE over the area this evening
as a warm front...across SW OH...lifts north. Low pressure
centered over KS will move NE into Michigan by daybreak Tuesday.
Rain will overspread the area overnight ahead of the low. A
widespread .5 to 1 inch of rain is expected by Tuesday evening.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday and Tuesday night in -ra. May mix with
or change to a little snow Wednesday morning.


Light and variable winds expected across Lake Erie today as high
pressure continues to drift eastward. Low pressure will approach the
region tonight with east winds increasing 5 to 15 knots and veering
south/southwest Tuesday/Tuesday night. Flow will remain generally
southwest 5 to 15 knots Wednesday through Thursday as a ridge of
high pressure builds into the region. Light and variable winds are
expected Thursday night into Friday with the ridge overhead.




SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
MARINE...Greenawalt is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.