Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 290140
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
840 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z CRP sounding continues to show a moist airmass with PWAT
of 2 inches. However, drier air is expected to filter into S TX
overnight as reinforcing high pressure builds into the area. This
will maintain mild/cooler temps and dry conditions overnight into
Thu. Overall, forecast looks on track with no major changes at
this time.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 642 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period, with
the exception of ALI where brief patchy fog early Thu morning may
lead to brief MVFR vsbys. Sfc winds will be light generally
varying from the NNW to NE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

Minimal changes of significance made to the short term forecast.
Scattered cumulus across inland locations should quickly dissipate
with loss of diurnal warming with mainly clear skies expected to
prevail during the overnight hours. Reinforcing surge of high
pressure/front is prog to arrive late tonight into Thursday
morning. Thursday should be breezier from the NNE...especially
during the late morning and afternoon hours /strongest winds
along the coast/. Despite a northerly flow...max temps may be a
couple of degrees warmer Thursday than today as cooler airmass to
the north does not arrive until Friday. Mainly clear skies
continue Thursday into Thursday night with noticeably cooler
conditions prog to occur Thurs night.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

A weak upper level ridge will be just west of the area Friday into
Saturday while a deep upper low will reside over the Ohio Valley.
Surface high pressure ridge will remain over East Texas down to the
coast maintaining dry air over the region. Mild low temperatures are
expected through the weekend. The surface ridge will shift to the
east by the beginning of next week and moisture will slowly increase
over the region. After high temperatures in the 80s Friday through
the weekend, readings will be back into the 90s early next week. A
strong upper trough will move into the west coast Monday with the
downstream ridge moving through south Texas. The upper trough moves
through the Rockies on Tuesday with a gradual increase in onshore
flow expected. Sufficient moisture will be in place by Wednesday to
provide a slight chance of convection over the coastal waters into
the coastal plains as the upper trough moves into the southern
plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    71  91  65  86  64  /   0   0   0   0   0
Victoria          65  89  59  84  58  /   0   0   0   0   0
Laredo            72  91  65  86  63  /   0   0   0   0   0
Alice             69  93  63  87  60  /   0   0   0   0   0
Rockport          71  89  66  84  66  /   0   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           69  90  61  84  59  /   0   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        72  93  63  87  63  /   0   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       74  88  69  84  69  /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM


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