Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 062342
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
642 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE WINDS INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...UPPER AIR PATTERN
IS CHARACTERIZED BY OMEGA BLOCK...WITH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY...AND UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND
EAST COASTS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS EAST OF THE AREA
ALLOWING ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA. GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN AN UPTICK IN SE/SSE WINDS. ANOTHER WARM DAY
IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS TO MIDDLE 80S OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE OVER THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AS SW TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NE MEXICO. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA...SO WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

STILL DEALING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OMEGA BLOCK AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE UNSETTLED...
COMPARED TO THE PAST WEEK...WITH CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW EJECTING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BY THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK
IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS...HIGHER HUMIDITY AND MORE UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AS
WELL.

SUNDAY...WE CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION DRY AS MUCH/MOST OF THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAINS FAR ENOUGH TO OUR NORTH. DRY LINE WILL
BE ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE CWA HOWEVER THE CAPPING
INVERSION LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CU-FIELD FLAT.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW EJECTING
TOWARDS THE PLAINS WE WILL START TO SEE BETTER DYNAMICS MAKE THEIR
WAY TOWARDS OUR REGION...THOUGH STILL NOT STELLAR. THIS ADDED
SUPPORT..BETTER DEFINED EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...COULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP PRODUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE DRY LINE WILL PROGRESS FARTHER EAST
COMPARED TO SUNDAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE MOISTENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. WE CONTINUE WITH THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...THE GROUND IS BECOMING DRIER.

TUESDAY - FRIDAY...STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE DRY
LINE BACK FARTHER TOWARDS THE WEST ON TUESDAY BUT NOT BEFORE TRIPLE
DIGITS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST. WITH THE DRY LINE
WEST AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE PEAK HEATING.
THIS DAILY...MOSTLY DIURNAL...TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINING DAYS GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WE WILL HAVE IN
PLAY...INSTABILITY...AND PASSING EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES
ACTING AS A BETTER TRIGGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    65  86  71  85  74  /   0  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          61  85  67  82  71  /   0  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            66  93  70  91  71  /   0  10  10  10  20
ALICE             62  90  68  89  72  /   0  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          69  84  73  81  76  /   0  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           63  91  68  89  69  /   0  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        64  89  70  89  72  /   0  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       69  83  73  83  75  /   0  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

AN/88...AVIATION



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