Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 200932
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
432 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...EARLY THIS MORNING...A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WAS ANALYZED TO EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP AS A RESULT. PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS HOW HIGH/LOW TO GO WITH POPS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTH SLIGHTLY WHILE AN AREA
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE TRANSITIONS MORE TO AN AREA OF SPEED
CONVERGENCE. GREATEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH PERHAPS A LOCAL MAXIMUM ACROSS SE ZONES WHERE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IS PROG BY THE RUC AND NAM TO BE THE GREATEST.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING CHANCES ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY
WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO PICK UP
ON IMPACTS FROM A WEAK MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR PRIMARILY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRUSH
COUNTRY. NE ZONES SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIP TODAY DUE TO
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE LLVL
WIND PROFILE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AND FOR NOW HAVE
OMITTED MENTION OF THUNDER IN OFFICIAL FORECAST...THROUGH A RUMBLE
OR TWO WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE THE
WARMEST ACROSS NE ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE THINNEST AND
CONDITIONS THE DRIEST. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
BRUSH COUNTRY EARLY THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
EVENING WITH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS REMAINING DRY AREAWIDE AS
DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
LOWER ON TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN WITH MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
BE LINGER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY. MODELS DEPICT A
WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO
AND TEXAS BIG BEND INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SHOW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR WEST WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...THE
DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN POTENTIAL. GRADIENT
WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DEVELOPS. MODERATE EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
DURING THIS PERIOD. TIDE LEVELS MAY INCREASE TO ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE
PREDICTED BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER SWELLS AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
AFFECT THE COAST. 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY...WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MORE
PROGRESSIVE. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS AND WEAK NORTHEAST WINDS TO
PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY. MILD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED WHILE HIGH
TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR-SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  70  86  66  84  /  40  10  20  10  10
VICTORIA          86  62  87  60  84  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            85  71  87  67  86  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             85  69  88  65  86  /  50  10  20  20  10
ROCKPORT          85  70  86  69  84  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           85  68  86  63  86  /  20  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        85  70  87  66  85  /  50  10  20  20  10
NAVY CORPUS       85  73  85  71  83  /  40  10  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
TMT/89...LONG TERM




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