Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 300907
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
407 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. PERIODS OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE TODAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AROUND 85H WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THIS MORNING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WILL SCATTERED BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS PERSISTING. EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH
LOW CLOUDS FORMING OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS. MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND
DAMPENS INTO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PROVIDE A
SLIGHTLY COOLER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. WENT WITH COOLER MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE A
LITTLE DRIER EACH RUN FOR TUE NIGHT/WED TIMEFRAME. THE MODELS PROG
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ALONG WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVG ACROSS THE REGION AND THE RRQ
OF THE UPPER JET SWINGING ACROSS S TX. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVELS ARE
PROGD TO BE DRIER AND THERE IS NO LOW LEVEL FORCING.
THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED POPS BY 10 PERCENT. KEPT THE TREND OF RAIN
CHCS TAPERING OFF FROM W TO NE AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS THE REGION BY
WED NIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGD TO BE CTRD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO...WILL NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO S TX WED NIGHT THRU FRI LEADING
TO A DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. THUS WARMER TEMPS AND NO SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT/FRI TIMEFRAME. MODELS VARY BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW A COLD FRONT FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING...THE ECMWF BEING THE FASTEST. THEY ALL SHOW
INCREASING PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS OVERRUNNING
CONDITIONS SET UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
SUPERBLEND OUTPUT FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT GENERALLY KEPT CLOSE TO ITS
VALUES AND KEPT A CHC OF RAIN. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE COOLER
BUT DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF FRONT AND CLOUD COVER THRU THE WEEKEND.
NE WINDS ARE PROGD TO DVLP BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SAT/SAT NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  65  79  67  82  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          81  62  79  64  79  /  10  10  10  40  40
LAREDO            90  67  85  68  88  /  10  10  10  20  10
ALICE             86  64  82  65  85  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          78  66  77  66  77  /  10  10  10  30  30
COTULLA           87  63  84  65  85  /  10  10  10  30  10
KINGSVILLE        84  65  81  66  85  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       78  67  76  68  79  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TMT/89...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM




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