Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 061137 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
537 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON RADAR ACTIVITY...HAD TO INCLUDE TSRA IN KVCT
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW
WINDS INCREASING TO AOA 15 KT SUSTAINED AND GUSTS AOA 25 KNOTS.
N/NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 11 KT OR LESS BY 07/00Z...THEN LIGHT MAINLY
NE AFTER SUNSET WITH FEW250 BY END OF TERMINAL FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...CONVECTION OVER THE GULF
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. WAS GOING TO REMOVE POPS OVER INLAND
AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD LOW POPS IN THROUGH 15Z
DUE TO CONVECTION GOING ON IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NEAR VICTORIA
(DID NOT WANT TO HAVE NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH CONVECTION
GOING ON AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH LIKELY WILL END BY 12Z). RAIN WILL
END BY 15Z AT THE VERY LATEST...THEN MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE WINDS
AND FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS (SEE DISCUSSION BELOW ON THAT).

WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL BE BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERION WITH 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH
(WIND ADVISORY IS 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND/OR 40 MPH GUSTS). WILL
BRIEF MORNING SHIFT TO MONITOR AS 850 MB WINDS WHICH ARE 35 KNOTS
OR SO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LATER TODAY. NOT MUCH OF A
COOL DOWN...IF ANY...AS DRIER AIR AND NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SEEN
TONIGHT...AS WINDS DIMINISH AND GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
DEVELOPS. COULD HAVE A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE NORTHERN BRUSH
COUNTRY IN SOME SPOTS...AND WILL PUT OUT A SPS FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA...LOOKS
LIKE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO PRECLUDE A FREEZE (STILL
INCLUDED THE AREA IN THE SPS). COULD ALSO GET CLOSE IN ALICE. NEAR
THE COAST...LIGHT NE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AT CORPUS AND
ROCKPORT...ALTHOUGH THESE AREAS COULD EASILY FALL INTO THE MID 30S
OR COOLER IF A LIGHT WEST WIND ENSUES.

HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY...BRINGS WEAK ONSHORE WINDS. LOOKS LIKE
A GREAT (CHAMBER OF COMMERCE) DAY ON SUNDAY. FOR
TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TODAY AND SUNDAY...GOING A
BIT ON THE COOLER SIDE TONIGHT (EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST DUE TO
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK NE FLOW).

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SCA FOR ALL WATERS AS WINDS WILL
BE AOA 20 KNOTS FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON OR SO ALL MARINE
INTEREST. WINDS STAY UP OFFSHORE TIL THIS EVENING...THEN DIMINISH.
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH MOVING EAST. RAIN CHANCES
END BY NOON.

FIRE WEATHER (TODAY)...HAVE CONTINUED RED FLAG WARNING...AS SMART
TOOLS INDICATE ESSENTIALLY ALL OF CWFA IN CRITICAL FIRE DANGER.
PREVIOUS FORECAST PRETTY MUCH HAD TIMING RIGHT ON THE MONEY...SO
NO CHANGES IN THAT REGARD. WILL UPDATE RFWCRP SHORTLY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO FCST
AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH S TX LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...THUS NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO S TX
IN ITS WAKE. THE MAIN ISSUE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS S TX AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE WIND
COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
THREAT ACROSS S TX MONDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
CRITICAL LEVELS. THE WIND ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON MON THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. A SLY
FLOW RETURNS TO S TX BY TUE NIGHT/WED LEADING TO A WARMING TREND
AND INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    68  39  70  45  67  /  10   0   0   0   0
VICTORIA          63  34  66  41  65  /  20   0   0   0   0
LAREDO            68  39  73  45  69  /   0   0   0   0   0
ALICE             68  33  72  42  68  /  10   0   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          63  43  66  48  65  /  20   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           68  32  72  41  67  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        69  34  71  43  68  /  10   0   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       65  46  67  51  66  /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...
     CALHOUN...DUVAL...GOLIAD...JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...LA SALLE...
     LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...NUECES...REFUGIO...SAN PATRICIO...
     VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO
     PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM
     BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT
     ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY
     TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT
     ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION


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