Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 062345
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
545 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...NOTE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT
FOR MVFR CEILINGS PSBL AFTER 21Z SAT NEAR ALI/CRP. LGT/VARIABLE
WIND EXPECTED TO OCCUR TNGT/EARLY SAT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW SAT AFTN. NO SIGNIFICANT PCPN EXPECTED DRG THE TAF
PERIOD OVER SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN IS THE
RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL COME
LATE...IF EVEN BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY...WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NOT
LOOKING IMPRESSIVE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT (AND NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANYWAY...WITH SOME CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ABOVE 10 MB) MODEL
SOUNDING ARE SHOWING SOME DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS WHERE ANY RAINFALL
FROM HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVAPORATE/ALLOW FOR WET BULB COOLING
BEFORE ANY RAIN REACHES THE GROUND (MORE LIKELY TRACE AMOUNTS TOO).
AS A RESULT...AM GOING TO LOWER POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. MOS
GUIDANCE HAS A TENDENCY TO GO TOO HIGH ON POP VALUES WHEN
1000MB-500MB MEAN RH VALUES ARE 90 PERCENT OR HIGHER ESPECIALLY
BEYOND THE SECOND PERIOD. STILL AM GOING TO GO WITH AREAS OF RAIN
MOST LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY EVENING...WITH HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWEST WHERE SOME UPPER SUPPORT POSSIBLE AND
SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

OTHERWISE...LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT...COULD HAVE SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ESPECIALLY
OUT TO THE WEST. MORE CLOUDS RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES
RETURNING BY AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A BIT...BUT MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING NORTH
TONIGHT COULD GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AGAIN. SHOULD SEE LOWER
TO MID 60S SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NEARLY ALL AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. GOING WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
LOWS...GENERALLY BASED ON ISC CONSIDERATIONS AND MODEL 2 METER
TEMPERATURES. FINALLY...WINDS ARE RATHER TRANQUIL...WITH MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS EACH NIGHT AND LESS THAN 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...HAVE LET THE SCA FOR THE
NEARSHORE EXPIRE AT 3 PM...AND JUST TO BE SAFE AND CONSISTENT WILL
KEEP THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE UNTIL 6 PM. AFTER SOME ROUGH WINDS AND
SEAS OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS...THINGS WILL QUIET DOWN BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT
BUT RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT (IF ANY AT ALL). THAT IS ABOUT IT. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN EAST LATE.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA BECOMES SHEARED AND STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...BEING ABSORBED IN THE NEXT APPROACHING MIDLEVEL
TROUGH. THIS NEWLY FORMED LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS TEXAS BY SUNDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL SET UP TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WITH PWATS AND ISENTROPIC FLOW INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COASTAL REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN PWATS...WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST TO
LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE UPPER JET NOSING IN FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY...HAVE STRETCHED HIGH CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. MODELS ARE SHOWING SLIGHT WEAKENING IN LIFT
GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...HAVE KNOCKED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY
FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY...BUT CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS. CONVERGENCE AND LIFT INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
MONDAY DUE TO THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH NOW ENCROACHING INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH THE UPPER JET SLIDING FURTHER SOUTH. PROFILES SHOW A
PRETTY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS 1.6-1.7 INCHES BY 06Z
MONDAY TO GO WITH 70-80 PERCENT POPS. HAVE TRANSITIONED MORE
TOWARD CONVECTIVE STATE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY...AS A SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT HEADING INTO MIDWEEK...WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN RESIDING ACROSS THE OPEN GULF. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...YET HAVE A GRADUAL CLIMB...REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    41  63  51  62  56  /  10  10  30  70  70
VICTORIA          38  62  47  59  51  /  10  10  20  70  70
LAREDO            42  65  50  64  56  /   0  10  30  40  50
ALICE             40  64  50  64  55  /  10  10  20  60  70
ROCKPORT          42  60  52  60  56  /  10  10  30  70  70
COTULLA           39  63  48  61  54  /   0  10  30  50  50
KINGSVILLE        42  64  52  64  56  /  10  10  30  60  80
NAVY CORPUS       44  61  53  62  57  /  10  10  30  70  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA
     SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION




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