Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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671
FXUS64 KCRP 172329
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
629 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 00z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected during the TAF period. Generally light
wind overnight/early Wednesday. Weak to moderate onshore flow
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

It really does not get much better than this, today. We keep the
light north-northeasterly winds in place tonight, though they will
be even weaker than their current state. We once again will have
really good radiational cooling conditions overnight with clear
skies and dry air in place. Could easily rival this mornings` lows
in a lot of places, possibly even a skosh lower.

Heading into Wednesday, temperatures will be slightly warmer as we
develop a light onshore flow with just a slight uptick in our
dewpoints. Overall the day will be another fine day to be out and
about with temperatures in the low/mid-80s.

Continued moisture modification during the overnight hours expected,
although the surface layer flow is light and variable. Expecting an
increase in cloud cover towards the mid-morning hours which looks to
provide enough of a window for radiation/ground fog to develop
across the interior portions of the region. There should be enough
dry air in place above the surface to allow for a sharp inversion to
develop helping to increase the fog potential. At this time not
entirely sure how thick the fog will become given the brief window
of moistening we`ll have experienced. Otherwise we tack on several
degrees on our overnight lows.

With the positive moisture flux, especially across the Gulf waters,
we could see a few showers develop early Thursday morning and
drift westward towards the coast.

Tides/Coastal Flooding...

We currently are still seeing positive tidal anomalies between 1-
1.5`, even with the northerly flow we have been experiencing the
past couple of days. Highs tides along the Gulf facing beaches have
come close to reaching the 2` MSL threshold the past few cycles.
Still looks like starting as early as Wednesday afternoon/evening we
could reach the 2+` MSL threshold prompting a Coastal Flood Advisory
for the Middle Texas coastline.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

By the onset of the longterm period, changes will be apparent,
especially in the coastal bend and coastal plains. Much more humid
conditions and some patchy fog are expected for early Thursday
morning. The moisture by Thursday will be confined mainly to the
lowest layers, but deeper moisture will gradually increase through
the end of the week. An approaching upper level trough will spin
several shortwaves through the area Thursday through Saturday, each
helping to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warmer
temperatures will also prevail for Thursday through at least
Saturday. The main upper level trough will really dig into the area
Saturday night and Sunday, eventually pushing a cold front through
the region. Model consistency still not great in regards to frontal
timing, but a Sunday/early Monday ballpark is what we`re looking for
right now. Expect a relatively clean front with clouds and moisture
pushing out quickly behind it. Will see a nice cool down once again
into early next week. Not going quite as cool as this past front
yet, but would not be surprised if we continue to trend in that
direction.

Long moderate to strong easterly fetch across the Gulf will once
again lead to several days of minor coastal flooding through
Saturday.  ESTOFS/P-ETSS guidance has been consistent in showing
these higher water levels over the past few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    56  83  69  84  70  /   0  10  10  30  30
Victoria          50  84  64  85  68  /   0   0  10  30  30
Laredo            54  85  60  86  68  /   0   0   0  10  10
Alice             53  86  68  87  69  /   0   0  10  20  20
Rockport          63  82  72  84  74  /   0  10  10  30  30
Cotulla           50  84  59  85  67  /   0   0   0  10  20
Kingsville        53  87  67  87  70  /   0   0  10  30  20
Navy Corpus       69  84  74  85  75  /   0  10  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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