Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 292059
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
359 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION/SWRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. GOES SOUNDER PWAT DEPICT GREATER
PWAT VALUES TO THE NORTH WHICH IS PROGD (NAM DETERMINISTIC) TO
ENTER AT LEAST THE EXTREME NERN CWA THIS EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THUS ISOLD CONVECTION MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
CHANCE) (RAP DETERMINISTIC ADDED CREDENCE) OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NERN CWA UNTIL 03Z WED (WHEN CIN VALUES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY PER
THE NAM.) ADDITONAL ISOLD CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVR THE NERN CWA/NRN
CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY. UNCLEAR WHETHER MSTR WL BE SUFFICIENT
WEDNESDAY AFTN AND THUS RETAINED DRY CONDITIONS FOR THAT TIME.
EARLY MORNING (AT LEAST PATCHY) FOG EXPECTED OVER THE NERN/CNTRL
CWA DRG THE 10-14Z WED PERIOD OWING TO NEAR SFC MSTR/DRIER ALOFT
(SREF PROBABILITIES ADD CREDENCE.) EXPECT MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE RANGE 105-109F.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THU IS EXPECTED TO BE A
TRANSITIONAL DAY AS A POTENT UPPER LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHED WESTWARD RESULTING IN A DEEP
NLY FLOW ACROSS TX. MODELS PROG A WEAK FRONTAL BDRY TO PUSH SLOWLY
SOUTH INTO S CENTRAL TX THU AND THU NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS SOLN WAS
SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE BDRY WHILE THE ECMWF/NAM AND CANADIAN
ARE MORE CONSISTENT AND CONT TO SHOW THE BDRY APPROACHING THE NRN
TIER OF THE CWA FRI. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH THIS SCENARIO. ALL
MODELS SHOW A DEEP POOL OF MOISTURE AHD AND ALONG THE BDRY ALONG
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DVLPG ACROSS THE NRN CWA THU
NIGHT. THESE FEATURES THEN DRIFT S ON FRI...LEADING TO INCREASING
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FROM N TO S. EVEN IF THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BDRY
REMAINS FARTHER N...DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...AM
EXPECTING ENHANCED SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AS WELL AS POSSIBLE OUTFLOW
BDRIES FROM CONVECTION N OF THE AREA. THEREFORE AM KEEPING CHC POPS
ON FRI ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE CWA. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SAT
AS TO WHERE THE BDRY WILL BE LOCATED OR IF IT WILL BE LIFTING
N...HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE CWA WITH 30 POPS...THEN SHOW A DECREASING
CHC SUN WITH LINGERING ISOLD PRECIP ON MON AS A MORE PRONOUNCED
ONSHORE FLOW DVLPS. INTRODUCED A 20 POP ON TUE AS ALL MODELS WERE
SHOWING PRECIP WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE. AS FOR TEMPS...THU LOOKS TO BE THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE NE...THEN NEAR NORM TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORM TEMPS FRI/SAT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE SUN/MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  95  75  97  76  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          75  95  74  96  75  /  10  10  10  20  30
LAREDO            77 105  78 105  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             72  99  73 101  75  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  89  78  90  78  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           75 102  74 102  75  /  10  10  10  10  20
KINGSVILLE        73  98  74 100  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  89  78  92  80  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.