Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 251004 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
504 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016
.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...With the upper level ridge
shifting slightly to the north, higher moisture over the western
Gulf of Mexico will move into the area over the next couple of
days. Isolated showers have persisted during the night over the
coastal waters and have moved inland into the Victoria Crossroads.
Models depict axis of steeper low level lapse rates over the
coastal waters in region where CIRA layered precipitable water
image shows values around 1.9 inches. Will continue slight chance
PoPs over the coastal plains this morning with a narrow region of
chance PoPs over the Victoria area this afternoon. Steep low level
lapse rates will remain over the coastal waters again tonight and
expect scattered convection to develop overnight. Moisture will
increase from the northeast on Friday with precipitable water
values up to 2.2 inches. Will increase PoPs to 40 percent over
Victoria Crossroads and show slight chance over the eastern Brush
Country on Friday. Low level flow will be more easterly each day
and should lead to slightly cooler maximum temperatures for
.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Complicated forecast pattern through much of the long term period.
Upper level high pressure ridge weakens and shifts north and
northeastward late in the week allowing moisture to feed back into
South Texas. Several elements will play a role into the eventual
forecast through the area however...including the tropical
disturbance (99L), a potential mid level disturbance and a TUTT low.
While models will not fully be able to resolve the details of the
tropical disturbance until it gets better organized, most of the
guidance suggests it will remain well east of the forecast area, so
for now will focus more on the expected TUTT low development. Models
have converged to some degree with the TUTT low developing in the
western Gulf of Mexico and moving up the Texas coast. At the same
time, most models also develop a mid-level low in the northwest
Gulf of Mexico with very high moisture. The positions of these two
systems will rule the rain chances across South Texas. The TUTT
low immediately along the coast is not in the most favorable
position, but if moisture from the north can get under it would
still have good rain chances. Will continue a blended approach at
PoPs with mainly slight chance to low end chance across the area,
with the highest PoPs east associated with the deepest moisture.
By the middle of the week, the mid/upper level disturbances should
weaken and begin to lower rain chances. As a result of deep
moisture and cloud cover will expect temperatures to remain
slightly cooler than normal through the period.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 94 77 93 75 94 / 20 10 20 20 30
Victoria 93 75 91 73 93 / 30 20 40 20 40
Laredo 99 77 98 75 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 96 74 96 73 96 / 20 10 20 10 30
Rockport 92 79 91 78 93 / 30 20 30 30 30
Cotulla 98 75 96 74 95 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 95 76 95 74 96 / 20 10 20 10 30
Navy Corpus 92 80 91 78 93 / 20 20 30 20 20