Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 021120 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
620 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION ONGOING BETWEEN CRP-VCT AS OF
WRITING. WILL EXPECT DEVELOPMENT FARTHER INLAND TO ALI WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CIGS DEVELOPING...YET
CONTINUE TO REPORT VFR AT CRP-ALI-VCT...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS SHOWING LARGER COVERAGE OF LOW CIG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY TO AFFECT LRD. WILL EXPECT
MVFR AT LRD TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z BEFORE LIFTING TO
VFR. HAVE RAIN CHANCES TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. DID LOWER CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW MAINTAINED VFR ALTHOUGH TEMPO MVFR AFTER 09Z
MAY BE ADDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS
STILL HANGING AROUND THE TEXAS COAST PER THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS COMBINED WITH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES DRAPED ALONG THE EASTERN
CWA WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...FOCUSING ALONG THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS /ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND/...THEN
SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE. HRRR AND TEXAS TECH
MODELS CONTINUE COASTAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
/WITH TX TECH MODEL BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO/ BEFORE
SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND...SO HAVE EXTENDED CHANCE POPS FARTHER
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...BUT A SIMILAR SITUATION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL HEAVILY RELY ON ACTUAL
RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVERAGE...HOWEVER MAINTAINED RELATIVELY
PERSISTENT WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT DID RAISE
TEMPS OUT WEST BY A FEW DEGREES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONVECTIVE CHANCES
/ALBEIT RATHER LOW/ WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL CONVECTIVE SUPPORT
WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS WEEK WITH PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CHANCES
BECOMING DIURNALLY SUPPORTED /COMMON PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR/.
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE /PWATS GENERALLY 1.75 TO 2 INCHES/ IS
PROG TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS PROG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MARINE AREAS AND THE
COASTAL COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT AS A NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE WITH SBCAPES PROG
TO BE AROUND 2500 J/KG. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY /SCATTERED AT BEST/
SHOULD DEVELOP FURTHER IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND BY MID MORNING FRIDAY WITH ACTIVITY THEN
SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED AS MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE
PROG TO INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING RIDGING...THUS CAPPING THE
ATMOSPHERE TO AN EXTENT. EVEN WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS ON SUNDAY
SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY. MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER IS THEN PROG TO
SHIFT WESTWARD SLOWLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION /AGAIN BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE AT NIGHT/MORNING AND INLAND DURING THE DAY/. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION...ANOTHER ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
BE HEAT INDICES. A SURGE OF HIGHER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE IS PROG TO
OCCUR FOR OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 105
TO 110 DEGREES WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100...AND
AROUND 90 AT THE BEACH. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND
ARE URGED TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TO SEEK SHADE WHEN POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    90  75  90  76  93  /  30  20  30  20  30
VICTORIA          89  73  89  74  93  /  30  30  40  20  30
LAREDO            98  76  98  78 100  /  10  10  20  10  10
ALICE             92  74  93  73  97  /  30  10  40  10  30
ROCKPORT          85  77  87  79  91  /  40  30  40  30  30
COTULLA           97  74  97  77  99  /  10  10  20  10  10
KINGSVILLE        90  75  91  76  96  /  30  20  40  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       85  77  87  79  91  /  40  30  40  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION



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