Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FXUS64 KCRP 241144
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
644 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Update for 12Z aviation cycle.
Monday...VFR. Expecting a broken stratocu deck to develop with
peak heating by early afternoon. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. High
Tonight...Mixture of VFR/MVFR/IFR. Could see some decreasing cloud
cover by late evening from west to east. Low-level moisture in
place and light and variable winds looks to develop some patchy
MVFR/IFR inland fog, KALI/KVCT, and eventually some stratus.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Stronger mid-level shortwave trough of low pressure continues to
move towards the northeast with shower activity confined to the
Central and North Texas areas. The 00Z KCRP sounding showed a lot
of dry air below 550mb and water vapor satellite imagery shows drier
air moving into the region so not expecting much, if any, in the way
of showers this afternoon. As the trough moves farther to our our
northeast northwest flow aloft kicks in, albeit brief, and helps to
steepen the lapse rates with weak cold pool interaction, so more
cloud cover is expected today. Temperatures will continue to be
Continued onshore flow will help to increase the low-level moisture
for tonight and when combined with the increase cloud cover, not
allowing for deeper mixing, moisture will be able to pool nicely
tonight. Highlighting areas across the interior Coastal Bend and
Brush Country for patchy fog developing after midnight tonight,
though it is entirely possible isolated areas of dense fog may
develop as well. Positive moisture flux over the coastal waters may
allow for some isolated showers late tonight that move towards the
coast by daybreak.
Nearshore moisture convergence will continue through the early
afternoon hours and a weak seabreeze circulation may develop by
Tuesday afternoon. This will help to enhance low-level lift and
allow for isolated showers to develop during peak heating. We
continue with the 20 percent chance of showers. Temperatures
continue their above normal readings...sigh.
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...
Mid and upper level moisture decreases early in the period as drier
upper level ridging builds over Texas. Shallow surface moisture will
remain in place as light to moderate onshore flow continues. Rain
chances, while not zero will remain small through the period.
Isolated showers will be possible Wednesday and again Friday, mainly
over marine waters and into the coastal bend. Most locations will
not see these showers. Drying out of the mid levels will allow for
chances of fog beginning Wednesday night. Temperatures remain steady
through the week with highs in the mid and upper 80s and lows in the
60s. The next hope for a cold front comes around the end of the
period. A cold front moves into North Texas on Sunday but stalls
out...there are some indications that a weak backdoor front could
bring a wind shift late Sunday.
Increasing swell periods will likely bring an increase in rip
current risk by the end of the week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 87 68 86 68 85 / 10 10 20 10 20
Victoria 86 61 84 62 86 / 10 10 20 10 10
Laredo 88 67 87 68 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
Alice 88 63 86 65 86 / 10 10 20 10 20
Rockport 86 70 85 71 84 / 10 10 20 10 20
Cotulla 89 67 87 67 88 / 10 10 10 10 10
Kingsville 88 64 86 65 86 / 10 10 20 10 20
Navy Corpus 85 73 84 73 84 / 10 10 20 10 20