Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 012053
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
353 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...LESS CONVECTION
NOTICED ON RADAR AS MOISTURE DEPTH IS MUCH LESS THAN PREVIOUS
DESPITE THE NEAR 2 INCH PWAT AVAILABLE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE WEAK
THETA-E RIDGE BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MOISTURE
INCREASES HEADING INTO TUESDAY AS NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP THIS SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER HOWEVER BRING AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE TO SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THIS SAID...POPS WILL BE ON THE RISE
BEGINNING TUESDAY. AS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR INCREASED ACTIVITY. DID EXTEND HIGH END CHANCE POPS FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST. ACTIVITY SHOULD LESSEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH REDEVELOPMENT
OVER THE WATERS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND AND SOUTHERN CWA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MADE MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES KEEPING RELATIVELY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TO NEAR 100 OUT WEST DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
PROG TO BE PUSHING INLAND OVER NE MX AT START OF LONG TERM PERIOD
WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER CWA /ASSUMING TD5 DOES
NOT INTENSIFY ENOUGH TO PREVENT DEEP MOISTURE FROM OVERSPREADING THE
REGION/. WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POPS OF THE
LONG TERM FORECAST AS AXIS OF DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF LOW CONVECTIVE TEMP VALUES.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. REMNANTS OF TD5 SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON THURSDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE LIKELY
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA /GREATEST VALUES ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES/...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING NEARLY AREAWIDE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. ECMWF/CMC ARE MOST ROBUST WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY AND HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF AN ECMWF/CMC AND SLIGHT GFS
BLEND FOR POPS. MID LEVEL VORTICITY IS PROG TO EXIT THE REGION BY
FRIDAY WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN OF DAILY CONVECTION EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT IS PROG BY THE
ECMWF/GFS TO STALL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHILE THE CMC WANTS TO BRING THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA. FOR
NOW...WILL SIDE WITH ECMWF/GFS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ACCOMPANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD
GIVEN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE THE COOLEST /RELATIVELY SPEAKING/ ON
WED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DETERMINED BY
AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. MIN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS /WHICH ARE NOW STARTING TO
SLOWLY COOL/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  78  88  77  /  20  50  30  70  40
VICTORIA          77  94  77  92  76  /  20  50  20  50  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  93  78  /  10  20  10  60  30
ALICE             76  95  77  88  75  /  10  50  20  70  30
ROCKPORT          81  91  81  88  79  /  30  40  30  60  30
COTULLA           77  98  77  93  76  /  10  20  10  40  30
KINGSVILLE        78  93  78  88  76  /  20  50  30  70  40
NAVY CORPUS       81  90  81  88  79  /  20  40  30  70  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...SHORT TERM
RH/79...LONG TERM





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