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000
FXUS65 KCYS 242339
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
540 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

JUST A MINOR UPDATE TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING AS CONDITIONS NO
LONGER CRITICAL IN THE WARNED AREA.  OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CURRENTLY...1020MB SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH 40+ MPH GUSTS
OVER THE SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND OUT BY ARLINGTON. TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 60S OUT IN THE PANHANDLE ALLOWING MIXING AS EXPECTED TO
CLOSE TO 600MBS. GETTING WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
OUT THERE AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS...SO
LOOKING LIKE THE RED FLAG WARNING IS VERIFYING WELL.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS EASE SOME...THOUGH STILL WINDY IN OUR USUAL
WIND PRONE AREAS AS GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW 700MB WINDS 45KTS OR SO.
700MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE...CLIMBING TO +2C BY 12Z
FRIDAY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN WYOMING. SHOULD BE A FARLY WARM
NIGHT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE,

UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD EASE WINDS SOME
THROUGH THE DAY. GFS 700MB WINDS DOWN TO 25-30KTS AND 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +6C BY THE AFTERNOON. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER
ON AFTERNOON HIGHS WITH UPPER 70S IN THE PANHANDLE...MID TO UPPER
60S WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

ONE MORE WARM DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN UTAH AREA. WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS 700MB WINDS ON THE GFS INCREASE BACK UP TO 40+KTS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FORTUNATELY...MOST OF SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS
THE LOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWING SOMEWHAT. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS
TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RAPIDLY SWING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM
COLORADO UP INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
STRONG FORCING FROM COMBINED PV ANOMALY...DIFFLUENT JET...AND
MID/LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED. BUMPED UP POPS OVER THE CWA WITH STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE AS THIS AREA WILL VERY LIKELY SEE MODERATE RAIN VCTY
THE BAROCLINIC BAND LOOKING TO SET UP OVER THIS AREA. COULD SEE
TSTORMS WITHIN THE SFC CONVERGENCE ZONE PROGGED TO BE OVER THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WELL. PRECIP TYPE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE
QUESTIONABLE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
THICKNESSES PROGGED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST...EXPECT MAINLY SNOW WITH
MAYBE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE HIGH
VALLEYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH
OF QPF ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH COULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROWAL
AS WELL. THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN
STEERING FLOW AS A REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER NORTH AMERICA.
THEREFORE...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AND WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER COOL NORTH-
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THIS TIME. EXPECT AFTERNOON RAIN AND
NIGHTTIME SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH MID WEEK AS
A RESULT...ALONG WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS. WITH THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO BE A SLOW MOVER...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG AS WELL. ALL IN ALL...THE
LONG TERM WILL REMAIN COOL...WINDY...AND VERY UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH NOON FRIDAY)

GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL EASE AFTER SUNSET...AND
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH A MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECK
MOVING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE BY EARLY EVENING
WITH HUMIDITIES CLIMBING BACK ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. COULD SEE
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS OUT IN THE PANHANDLE ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY...BUT WINDS LOOK TO EASE SOME AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES SHOULD
BE JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. STILL ON TRACK FOR A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RE
SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...RJM
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB