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000
FXUS65 KCYS 111034
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
334 AM MST WED DEC 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED DEC 11 2013

DRY AND WARMING WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

A COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE EAST PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING. AS OF 10Z...THE FRONT WAS STATIONARY ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE. BEHIND THE FRONT WERE SOME FLURRIES THROUGH 08Z AND
THEN AREAS OF FOG MAINLY BETWEEN KCYS AND KIBM. THE LOWER CLOUDS
AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY.

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE
ROCKIES. FAST NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
DURING THAT TIME. A BROAD RIDGE AXIS WILL BRIEFLY BE OVER THE
REGION MIDDAY THURSDAY. A MORE WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT
STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS A WARM FRONT OR TROUGH
TO ALONG THE WESTERN WYOMING BORDER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB WILL WARM TO ABOVE ZERO OVER PARTS OF THE
CWA ON THURSDAY. THAT SHOULD HELP SURFACE READING TO CLIMB TO THE
30S AND 40S ON THURSDAY.

PERHAPS THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN STRONGER
WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL HEIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN KCAG AND KCPR
BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR HIGH WINDS BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z.
HOWEVER...THE 300 MB JET WILL BE FURTHER EAST AND OVER THE PLAINS
TODAY AND THE 700 MB WINDS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS ON
TUESDAY. FOR THOSE REASONS...WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH
WIND WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. STILL...SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE GUSTS TO 55 MPH BETWEEN 06Z
AND 18Z.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED DEC 11 2013

FRIDAY...WEAK...POSITIVELY TILTED PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING TODAY...BUT WITH LIMITED LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE
SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES AND OVER OUR CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA
COUNTIES...DRY ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY...EXPECT A WINDY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND DECENT SURFACE
TO 700 MB GRADIENTS. ASIDE FROM A FEW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES...IT WILL BE DRY.

SUNDAY...FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS WYOMING AND NEBRASKA...AND BASED ON TIMING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND PROGGED SURFACE TO 700 MB GRADIENTS...OUR WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS MAY SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. IN ANY EVENT...IT WILL BE
WINDY WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...AND DRY WITH MINIMAL LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MONDAY/TUESDAY..CONTINUED WINDY WITH BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB AND PROGGED
GRADIENTS. STILL LOOKING DRY WITH MINIMAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIMITED LIFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED DEC 11 2013

AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND IFR OR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 15Z OVER THE EAST PART OF THE CWA. THE LARGEST AND
MOST WIDESPREAD AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN KCYS AND KIBM.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS IN AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY. EVEN STRONGER WINDS
WILL BE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THAT AREA BETWEN 06Z AND 18Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM MST WED DEC 11 2013

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL OVER THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
STARTING THURSDAY. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH THROUGH
THURSDAY IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. EVEN
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THAT AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEILAND
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...WEILAND
FIRE WEATHER...WEILAND