Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 222337
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
637 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/

LIGHT E/NE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND WEAK DIVERGENCE TO LIMIT THE FORMATION OF LOW
CLOUDS. VFR SKIES ARE THUS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
MOISTURE POOLING FROM RAIN SOAKED SOILS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL
RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT A CUMULUS FORMING IN THE DAYTIME...AND A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP FROM DAYTIME HEATING AS THE
MOISTURE ADVECTS WEST TOWARD THE SRN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON
AREA TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
NORTH/EAST WINDS HAVE ARRIVED ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS VERY WEAK AND EVEN UNNOTICEABLE ACROSS
TEXAS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH
OF THE CWA AND WITH DEWPOINTS NORTH OF WACO DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S. WITH THE MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE ARE DECENT LOOKING CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA AND THESE TWO AREAS WOULD BE THE FAVORED
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT.

THE DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR ALL BUT THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS TOMORROW. MODELS ARE STILL PROGGING PWATS TO BE
AROUND 2 INCHES FOR DEL RIO TOMORROW. WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A 10 POP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COOLER
AND DRIER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS REACHING THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
INCONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING OF A CUT OFF LOW FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE IS BECOMING A BIT MORE IN
LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE GFS HAD BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH
DEVELOPING A LOW NEAR SOUTH TEXAS AND THEN SLOWLY MOVING IT EAST
BY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS FINALLY PLAYING CATCH UP AND IS SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR WITH ITS SOLUTION. IT DOES HOWEVER...DEVELOP A LARGER LOW
WITH A MORE NORTHWARD PLACEMENT. WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR DEEP
RETURN FLOW BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW AND
THUS PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW AS WELL. WILL CARRY 20 POPS ON
FRIDAY FOR NOW...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE
WEEKEND IF MOISTURE VALUES CAN BECOME A BIT HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  86  64  86  63 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  65  86  61  86  60 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     66  87  63  86  63 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            65  84  62  84  62 /  10   0  -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  89  68  87  67 /  10  10  -   10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        64  85  63  85  62 /  -   -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69  89  65  87  64 /  10  10  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  86  63  86  62 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   67  85  63  85  64 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  88  66  86  66 /  10  -   10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           70  89  66  87  66 /  10  -   10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32





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