Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 221822
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1222 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. WE CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IFR
DECKS AT DRT BUT SHOULD SEE THIS DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL THE
AREA. WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING.
NAM MODEL IS VERY BULLISH IN BRINGING A REPEAT OF IFR INTO
SAT/SSF IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE BIG FRONTAL PUSH. HRRR IS ALSO
STARTING TO HIT THIS SCENARIO. THEY ARE BANKING ON THE WESTERLY
FLOW DYING OFF THIS EVENING AND A RETURN OF SE WINDS BEFORE THE
FRONT ARRIVES.

THE TRUE COLD FRONT WITH COLDER AIR AND STRONGER SPEEDS WILL WAIT
UNTIL TUE MORNING. ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...MODELS ARE
DEVELOPING SOME OVERUNNING CLOUDS BELOW 850 MB. WILL BRING DECKS
DOWN TO MVFR AT ALL SITES BY 16Z TOMORROW. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE
SOME SORT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT AUSTIN IN THE MORNING BUT AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH WITH TIMING AND OVERALL POP CHANCES TO INPUT
AT THIS TIME. WILL WATCH LATER RUNS TO SEE IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES. N AND NW WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY OVER 20 KTS TUE
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ESCARPMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH SOME LOCATIONS ON THE PLATEAU STILL REPORTING FOGGY
CONDITIONS AT 15Z. EXTENDED PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR THESE LOCATIONS
ANOTHER FEW HOURS. ALSO RAN STANDARD UPDATE FOR HOURLY T TRENDS
AND DEW T. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS RESULTED IN
IFR/LIFR CIGS THIS MORNING. ALSO SEEING VIS REDUCED IN FOG WITH
THE WORST VIS AT DRT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY AROUND NOON AS
WEST WINDS MOVE IN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY BRINGING NORTH WINDS BY MID-MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
FOG COVERS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY LOWER LEVEL WINDS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ERODE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY MID MORNING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT...THEN A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LATE TUESDAY. THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH GENERATE UPWARD
MOTION OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO NEW BRAUNFELS TO
KARNES CITY LINE. RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER INCH. COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE
TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...ONLY FLIRTING WITH THE FREEZING
MARK IN SOME LOW LYING AND WIND SHELTERED HILL COUNTRY SPOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE CHRISTMAS
EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES OVER THE AREA...BUT STILL MAINLY IN LOW LYING SPOTS IN
THE HILL COUNTRY AND ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WARMING
TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE MODELS DELAYING THE NEXT
STRONG COLD FRONT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE
WARMED FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY. SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND
HAVE NOT INCLUDED POPS. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEYOND THIS
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  49  56  38  56 /   0  10  30  -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  47  57  37  56 /   0  10  20  -    0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  49  58  38  57 /   0  10  10  -    0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  46  54  36  53 /  -   10  30   0   0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  48  59  37  59 /   0  -   -    0   0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  47  55  36  54 /   0  10  30  -    0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  46  61  35  59 /   0  -   10   0   0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  48  57  36  56 /   0  10  20  -    0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  52  57  38  56 /  -   10  30  -    0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  50  59  38  58 /   0  -   10  -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  50  59  38  59 /   0  -   10  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33




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