610
FXUS64 KEWX 142044
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
344 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch now in effect until 7 AM Tuesday for the Hill
  Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and I-35 Corridor.

- Additional rainfall of 1-3 inches with isolated higher totals
  up to 6 inches possible. Additional river rises are possible.

- Drier regime mid to late week with slightly higher
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

An MCV continues to spin near the Mexican border this afternoon.
There are isolated showers and thunderstorms from the Rio Grande
to Hwy 281. Convection is generally producing moderate rain now.
PW in the airmass is still abnormally high, and any stronger
updrafts could produce locally heavy rain. These systems tend to
be more active overnight when the low level jet strengthens. We
are seeing the diurnal reduction which should continue after
sunset. This MCV will still be in the region tonight and
interact with our very moist airmass. Showers and thunderstorms
will continue tonight and Tuesday with locally heavy rain
possible. Additional rainfall of 1-3 inches with isolated totals
up to 6 inches is possible. We are going to extend the Flood
Watch until Tuesday morning and expand it to include all of the
I-35 Corridor. Models move the MCV away from our CWA Tuesday
evening bringing an end to rain chances.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A drier weather pattern will move in mid to late next week with
the upper ridge nudging westward into the area from the Gulf.
Most areas should remain rain free outside of perhaps a stray
to isolated shower or storm with the onshore flow and/or sea
breeze. Best chance of this would be Friday in the coastal
plains. With the decrease in overall cloud cover and slightly
stronger 500 mb heights, expect for a slight uptick in the
daytime highs through the second half of the week and into the
weekend.

Right now, rain chances remain out of the forecast, but we`ll also
monitor for the possible development of a tropical disturbance or
inverted trough following behind in the wake of the upper level
ridging that nudges to our area. This feature may slowly advance
westward along/parallel to the northern Gulf coast towards and
through the weekend. We continue to monitor to see if this feature
gains additional model support within the coming forecast
cycles.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The main concern through the forecast period is the current MCV
making its way across South-Central Texas, especially across the
Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country. Currently the MCV has shown
signs of weakening and likely not making its way to the I-35 TAF
terminals. The greatest probability for flight impacts continues to
be for KDRT. There are chances that some redevelopment could occur
across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) later today,
primarily during the afternoon. Confidence on placement and timing,
however, is low. Nonetheless have added PROB30s to account for this
possibility with VCSHs added for this evening into the overnight
hours for all TAF sites. MVFR and possibly IFR flight conditions
make a return overnight into late Tuesday morning with VFR conditions
returning Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  94  75  96 /  30  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  94  75  95 /  20  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  95  74  96 /  20  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  91  73  92 /  40  20   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  93  77  96 /  30  30  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  93  74  94 /  30  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  92  75  95 /  30  30  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  95  74  96 /  20  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  93  75  94 /  10  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  94  77  96 /  30  20  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  97  77  98 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Bandera-Bexar-Blanco-
Burnet-Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-
Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...05
Aviation...CJM