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000
FXUS64 KEWX 290052
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
752 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
TO REMOVE EVENING POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL TEXAS
ARE DISSIPATING AND MOVING FARTHER EAST. NO LONGER EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING. HAVE REMOVED ALL
POPS FROM THE EVENING FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONT WILL MAINTAIN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT KAUS
THROUGH 21Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR
BELOW 7 KTS. WINDS AT KSAT/KDRT/KSSF WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...ALL SITES INCLUDING KAUS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS COULD BE JUST EAST OF THE
I-35 TAF SITES FROM 10-15Z TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
TEXAS 71 TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT IN LINE WITH THE
RUC13...THEN BACK TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS JUST
NORTH OF THE CWA MID AFTERNOON AND MOVING SOUTH. RUC13 HAD BETTER
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...AND FOLLOWING CLOSER TO IT
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES
BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH THE PRIMARY
THREAT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY END AFTER SUNSET.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
NEAR A LLANO TO AUSTIN TO LA GRANGE LINE. MODELS SLIGHTLY DRIER
WITH MOISTURE POOL THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8
INCHES...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WITH THE BOUNDARY WORKING
BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR AT THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR HIGHS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT ARE NOW QUICKER WITH
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE COLD FRONT IS NOW QUICKER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE EWX CWA.
IT NOW APPEARS THE FRONT AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING SOUTH...AND SUPPORT FROM WEAK SECONDARY
IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR AND
SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TAPPING INTO
POOL OF 2-2.2 INCH PWATS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND 1.8-2 INCHES
WEST. STORMS COULD BACK BUILD AS FAR WEST AS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EAST. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THERE...AND IS MENTIONED IN FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ALSO FASTER WITH DRYING THAT TAKES
PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE AXIS BEING PUSHED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
THEREFORE HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...AS WELL AS KEPT FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...LOWER 90S
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR...AND MID 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN CWA.

GRADUAL WARMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
AND OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION RETURNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  98  75  99  75 /  10  30  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  99  72  99  74 /  10  30  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74 100  71 100  74 /  -   10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  95  73  98  74 /  10  30  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  98  78 101  78 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  96  73  98  74 /  20  30  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  99  71  99  73 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  98  72  99  74 /  -   20  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76 100  75  98  76 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       77  97  75  99  77 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  99  73  99  75 /  -   10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32