Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 050853
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
353 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH DEEP UPPER TROUGHS
IMPACTING THE EAST AND WEST COASTS WILL LEAVE SOUTH CENTRAL TX
WITH MORE SEASONAL WEATHER WITH WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.
LIGHT E/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RECIRCULATE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR
WITH GOOD AFTERNOON MIXING INTO THE DRY LAYERS ALOFT. NEAR
PERSISTENCE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY...AS SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH
THE DRY AIR...AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT OF MINS BELOW NORMALS IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO RESPOND...AND
ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL MIN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW MORNING CLOUDS EXPECTED AROUND
DAYBREAK. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE WESTERN
COUNTIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EAST BY THE WESTERN
US UPPER LOW. FAVOR THE GFS OVER NAM ON A SLOWER RETURN OF PWAT
VALUES...AND WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE FOR POPS SATURDAY WITH ONLY
WESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY SHOWING A MENTION OF WEATHER.

BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE ALL MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT BREAKDOWN
OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TAP
CONNECTED TO THE ITCZ WHICH IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE BETWEEN 110 AND
130W. FOR THIS REASON...THE POPS/WX FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYTIME MONDAY LEAN SLIGHTLY TO THE WET SIDE OF BLENDED GUIDANCE.
AS WITH MOST STORMS FORMING DIURNALLY NEAR THE SERRANIAS DEL
BURROS IN THE MONTH OF MAY...THERE IS ALWAYS AT LEAST A CAPE-
RELATED LOW END THREAT FOR SEVERE WX...AND THE SPC OUTLOOKS
CURRENTLY DETAIL THREATS INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER GENERALLY THE NW
HALF OF OUR AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
EARLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE RAIN FOCUS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND COASTAL PRAIRIES. THERE COULD BE A DRYLINE FOCUS OR
THERE COULD BE DRY-SLOTTING TO CAP MOST OF THE AREA...SO THE
MONDAY POP AND WX GRID IS AT OR BELOW THE INHERITED FORECASTS...
MEANING DECREASED CONFIDENCE. WILL HANDLE THE HAZARD THREAT HERE
AS VAGUELY AS POSSIBLE. 3 GFS RUNS IN A ROW HAVE TRENDED WITH A
MORE DISTINCT DRYLINE INTRUSION INTO CENTRAL TX...SO THE INCREASED
STABILITY AND HOT TEMPS OUT WEST IS FOLLOWED WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
CONFIDENCE.

AM CAUTIOUS ABOUT BUYING INTO THE STABLE PATTERN DEPICTED GOING
INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AS LARGE UPPER LOWS CAN CARRY
SUBTLETIES THAT THROW OFF MODELS INTO YO-YO FORECASTING. WILL ALSO
STAY SLIGHTLY ON THE WET SIDE OF THE BLENDED GUIDANCES IN THIS
PERIOD FOR ONE MORE FORECAST PACKAGE.

NEVERTHELESS...THE WORK WEEK TREND IN POPS IS DOWN OVER
WEDNESDAYS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY ALL WEEK. BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS DEPICTED OVER NW
MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THE MORE DYNAMIC PORTION OF THE WRN
US LOW IS STILL A THREAT TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  59  86  62  84 /   0   0   0   0  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  55  85  59  84 /   0   0   0   0  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  58  86  60  84 /   0   0   0   0  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  58  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           90  63  90  66  90 /   0   0   0  -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  56  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             89  57  90  61  86 /   0   0   0   0  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        86  57  85  60  83 /   0   0   0   0  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  56  85  61  84 /   0   0   0   0  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  60  87  63  84 /   0   0   0   0  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           89  60  89  63  86 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS



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