Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 262347
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
647 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.AVIATION...
An outflow boundary from thunderstorms to the south caused wind gusts
around 40 kts. These will be short lived as the boundary continues to
the north. Strong winds will not reach AUS. Otherwise, conditions
will be VFR through the period with only SCT clouds expected in the
morning Thursday. Breezy south winds are likely again Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
The latest water vapor satellite loop shows an upper low over central
Mexico this afternoon. This low will continue to retrograde westward
across Mexico this evening. To the east of this upper low, deep
layer southeasterly flow will help usher some deeper moisture into
portions of south central Texas. The main impact should be some
isolated showers and storms through early this evening across the Rio
Grande plains into portions of the southern Edwards Plateau. Similar
to the last several days, this activity will decrease with the loss
of daytime heating and should dissipate by 10 PM.

Another day of above normal temperatures is on tap for Thursday
across all of south central Texas. Similar to the last few days, we
could see a few locations flirt with Heat index readings of 105-108
for areas generally along and east of an Eagle Pass to Austin line.
We will hold off on a Heat Advisory for now as the models continue to
show some lower dew points during the afternoon hours. Most areas
will remain dry, although some isolated showers and storms may
develop over the coastal plains.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Little change is anticipated in the overall weather pattern for late
in the work week as high pressure in the mid and upper levels remains
intact over the southern U.S. plains. Temperatures will continue to
remain above normal on Friday with highs 100-105 for most areas,
except upper 90s in the Hill Country. The models show an area of
subsidence will increase over south Texas and this should help to
keep the forecast dry for our area. The warmest day of the forecast
period is expected to be on Saturday as the low-level thermal ridge
strengthens across the region. High temperatures should be near 100
to near 105 and if model trends continue, a Heat Advisory would be
needed for portions of the Rio Grande and along/east of the I-35
corridor. The heat should begin to ease slightly on Sunday as a weak
cold front moves in from the north. However, if this front delays
it`s southward progress, it will be very warm again on Sunday. The
cold front along with a slow transition to northwest flow aloft will
provide a slight increase in rainfall chances for early next week.
For now, we will generally keep rain chances in the 20-30% range.
Temperatures should also drop closer to normal as the ridge of high
pressure aloft retrogrades into the western U.S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 101  77 102  78 /  10  -   -    0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76 100  76 101  76 /  10  -   -    0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  99  75 101  75 /  10  -   -    0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            74  97  74  99  74 /  10   0   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 100  78 102  78 /  -    0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  98  77 100  77 /  10   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             74 101  74 103  75 /  20  -   -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  99  75 101  75 /  10  10  -    0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  99  76 101  77 /  10  10  -   -   -
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  99  77 101  77 /  10  -   -    0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76 100  76 101  76 /  10  10  -    0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...17
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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