Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 292358
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
658 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF UPDATE/
NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAFS FOR THE FIRST 9-12 HOURS.
SATURATED SOILS SHOULD INTERACT WITH MODERATE SURFACE SOUTHERLIES
TO FORM LOW CLOUDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT DELAY
OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND THE DRT AREA. NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND ENHANCEMENTS LOOK CONSERVATIVE IN MODEL TIME
SECTIONS...SUGGESTING AN ABUNDANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT.
A WEAKENING STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL TX BY
DAYBREAK...POSSIBLY A BIT FASTER IF RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
VERIFY. WILL STICK WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE TX TECH WRF AND THE
COARSER SCALE MODELS FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SEEMED TO BE RUNNING
TOO AGGRESSIVE OVER THE PAST WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

..LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

RECOVERY AFTER LAST NIGHTS MCS IS SLOWLY TAKING PLACE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STORM THROUGH SUNSET...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UPSTREAM...MODELS ARE INDICATING ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. PAST FEW HRRR
RUNS AND 12Z TT 4KM WRF ARE INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL LINE OF
STORMS REACHING THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY 09Z-12Z. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS COMPLEX MAY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
AND CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
LEFT OVER AND AN EVENTUAL WEAK COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THIS TIME...FORECASTING
TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIP ARE VERY
DIFFICULT...AS LARGER SCALE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK.

HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE RATHER LARGE CAPE VALUES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...EXCEEDING
3500 J/KG. WHEN COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A POSSIBILITY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE OUT WEST ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA...A QUICK 1-3 INCHES WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ISSUES IN
SEVERAL AREAS. OUT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION...HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEEPENS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS AR AND LA. BETTER MOISTURE
ON SUNDAY REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA...
AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THIS AREA SUNDAY...BUT FORCING APPEARS RATHER LIMITED.
FINALLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY-THURSDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL PRAIRIES
CLOSER TO BETTER MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH THE TROUGH TO
THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              71  83  67  82  64 /  30  70  40  20  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  83  65  81  62 /  30  70  40  30  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  85  66  83  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  80  64  80  62 /  50  70  40  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  86  67  86  68 /  20  70  40  30  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  81  65  81  62 /  40  70  40  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  86  66  83  65 /  20  70  40  40  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  83  66  81  64 /  20  70  50  30  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  84  68  82  65 /  10  70  50  40  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  68  83  66 /  20  70  50  30  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  86  68  83  66 /  10  70  50  40  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...
BLANCO...BURNET...CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...
FAYETTE...FRIO...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...
MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...
ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...OAKS
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30


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