Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 021153
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
653 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST AVIATION
FORECAST. MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST TERMINALS...WITH CLOUDS A
LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD FARTHER WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE...WITH VFR
EXPECTED AFTER 16Z. WE/LL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH 21Z-02Z
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING TO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND REGION AND AN ELONGATED AND WEAKENING
MID-TO-UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT EXTENDS FROM W AR TO THE SE
TX GULF COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE VICINITY OF AND EAST OF THIS SHEAR
AXIS FROM CRP TO LCH WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE NEAR AND EAST
OF AN MCV CENTERED NEAR FREEPORT. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THESE
SHOWERS MAY AFFECT LAVACA...FAYETTE...AND LEE COUNTIES IN OUR CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING AND A SEA
BREEZE TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE COASTAL PLAINS THAT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

ON THURSDAY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN INVERTED TROUGH
THAT RETROGRADES WEST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER W
TX INTO OK. THIS WILL CAUSE A TEMPORARY 0.2-0.4 INCH SURGE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE CWA...ENHANCING THE SEA
BREEZE TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS THE
HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. IN ADDITION...AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD CAUSE LOW STRATUS TO PERSIST A BIT LONGER ON
THURSDAY MORNING THAN THEY WILL THIS MORNING.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT
DEEP MOIST SE FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENS ON
MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              92  73  92  74  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  90  71  91  72  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  72  93  74  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  71  92  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           95  75  96  76  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        90  72  91  74  94 /  20  20  20  20  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             94  72  94  74  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  72  92  74  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  72  91  74  94 /  30  30  30  30  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  73  93  75  95 /  20  20  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           92  73  94  74  96 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...LH


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