Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 242309 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
609 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER TX WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED SATURDAY. WITH
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA...GROUND AND VEGETATION MOISTURE IS
HOLDING UP DEW POINTS A FEW EXTRA DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING HOURS. THE MOISTURE WILL HELP MINIMIZE COOLING UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS...WITH MINS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS RETURN SUNDAY BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECOUPLE AT NIGHT. THUS WE ADJUSTED THE MOISTURE RETURN DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY SUNDAY AS DAYTIME MIXING SHOULD REDUCE THE ACCUMULATED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE DEPTH
SHOULD INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
MORNING CLOUDINESS AND THUS HELP TO OFFSET AFTERNOON HEATING BY A
FEW DEGREES. A BROAD TROUGHING FEATURE EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO SHOW A DELAYED FRONTAL TIMING WITH EACH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUN...AND THE 12Z RUNS NOW SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL
NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TX UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
A WEAK FRONTAL FEATURE TO STALL OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX TUESDAY TO
ENABLE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL TX TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
DAYTIME THURSDAY WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND LIMITED MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY PROVIDING REASON TO CAP THE CHANCES AT 20 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              63  89  63  88  63 /   0   0   0  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  58  88  57  87  58 /   0   0   0  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     62  89  60  88  60 /   0   0   0  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            61  87  60  86  60 /   0   0   0  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           62  87  61  86  60 /   0   0   0  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        62  87  61  86  61 /   0   0   0  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             57  88  54  88  55 /   0   0   0  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        60  89  59  87  59 /   0   0   0  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   60  87  61  87  63 /   0   0   0  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       64  89  63  88  63 /   0   0   0  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           62  89  61  89  62 /   0   0   0  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...29
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12





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