Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 260157
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
957 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017


.UPDATE...

Adjusted trends of some chance/slight chance pops for outflow
driven convection into tonight. Still some attainable MLCAPE near
1500 J/kg. Thinking severe potential has diminished largely though
a few strong storms can still play out. Areas that received precip
should have the residual low level moisture to form patchy fog
after midnight. Otherwise forecast largely on track and previous
discussion follows...

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 751 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

Current radar loop shows showers and thunderstorms mainly across
central GA with some isolated storms across N GA.  A weak surface
trough extending through central Georgia will continue to serve as a
catalyst for convection through this evening and again Wednesday.
expecting these showers and thunderstorm to continue through this
evening and then dissipate by midnight. Will see another round of
redevelopment tomorrow afternoon as the main area of moisture and the
trough does not move much over the next 24 hours. The highest PoPs
tomorrow will again be across central GA in the vicinity of these
aforementioned features with lower coverage expected for north
Georgia. A few thunderstorms could become briefly strong or severe
during peak afternoon/evening heating with locally damaging wind
gusts and heavy rainfall being the primary concerns.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Long term period continues to feature a highly anomalous pattern
for this time of year with a full latitude trough this weekend
transitioning to a closed low by early next week. We still are
looking at increased rain chances with timing though much earlier
by some 12 hours Friday afternoon into Friday night. This could
create some issues related to timing of best thunderstorm chances
but for now will continue to advertise likely in the extended.

Deese

PREV DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

A surface boundary will extend across central GA at the start of
the long term. This would separate somewhat drier air over north
GA from deeper moisture central. However...not expecting the air
mass to become dry enough to remove pops for any length of time. A
strong short wave dropping from the Great Lakes to the mid
Atlantic states should push a another front to the TN Valley on
Friday. Likely pops still look okay for far north GA for that
time...with chance pops elsewhere. The front should continue to
push into central GA as the broad eastern trough deepens over the
weekend. For the first of the week...the southeast is dominated by
a deep upper trough for this time of year. Cyclonic flow over the
southeast will keep chance pops in through the period and
temperatures not as hot as previous days.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out to develop this evening,
though overall coverage should wane and allow for mostly VFR
conditions with just some lingering clouds in the mid to upper
levels. Some areas that saw precip (close to KPDK and KATL) have
greater chance for lower cigs after midnight but for now have SCT
600 ft from 08-13z and will need to be watched. Otherwise could
get some MVFR cig/vsby reductions for the southern sites. Cu field
again tomorrow in 4-5 kft range and afternoon storm chances after
about 20z. Either light NW winds overnight or calm/VRB then swings
NE after about 13z and under 7 kts. Expect SE by tomorrow evening.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium on overnight chance for lower cigs/vsbys.
High on all else.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  71  91 /  30  30  30  40
Atlanta         73  91  74  90 /  30  30  30  40
Blairsville     66  87  67  85 /  20  30  20  30
Cartersville    71  92  72  91 /  30  30  20  30
Columbus        74  93  75  93 /  40  40  20  40
Gainesville     72  89  72  88 /  30  30  30  40
Macon           72  91  72  91 /  40  40  30  40
Rome            72  93  73  92 /  30  20  20  30
Peachtree City  71  92  71  91 /  30  40  30  40
Vidalia         74  87  74  89 /  60  60  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/Baker
LONG TERM....Deese
AVIATION...Baker



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