Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 251726
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
126 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017



.UPDATE...
Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Regional analysis shows surface low continues over coastal North
Carolina while the strong close upper low remains over central
South Carolina. The flow around these lows continues to spread an
abundance of moisture and resultant low level clouds across much
of the forecast area. As of yet...no significant fog has developed
with low level flow remaining just elevated enough but would not
be surprised at all to see at least some reductions to vsby through
daybreak.

Will be a tough temperature forecast as it is almost entirely
predicated on the low clouds actually dissipating. Models in
agreement this will happen sooner rather than later with scattered
conditions by mid morning. Have gone with the consensus then that
warm temps return to the area for today with highs reaching the
upper 70s to low 80s.

Surface and upper low lift out for Tue night and Wed and will
actually see some upper level riding across the area. With only
sct clouds at best to work with...temps will continue their rise
with lower to mid 80s anticipated area wide.

Deese

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Dry conditions from the short term period will carry over into the
long term for a brief period of time. On Wednesday night...a weak
mid level shortwave ridge will be pushing east of the local
area...with associated weak area of sfc high pressure also moving
east with it into the Atlantic. Although conditions will remain dry
into the very early morning hours Thursday...a cold front will be
approaching from the west. Plenty of instability along and in the
near vicinity of the frontal boundary will help sustain
thunderstorm activity. As of right now...widespread severe weather
does not seem likely...however enough shear in the vicinity of a
LLJ across northwest and portions of north central Georgia may be
enough for isolated severe weather in the morning hours. This
isolated threat may shift to central Georgia Thursday afternoon as
better shear moves into this area ahead of the frontal boundary
and may be able to work in tandem with diurnal heating. Main
threats Thursday look to be gusty winds and hail /as mid level
lapse rates expected to remain over 6C/km/...though a brief...very
isolated spinup isn`t out of the question across northwest
Georgia Thursday morning /0-1km shear >30kts with dewpoints rising
to near 60/.

At least a portion of this frontal boundary will stall across
Georgia Thursday night into Friday as the parent system moves well
north. As this occurs...a closed mid level low will begin developing
across the Southern Rockies within a broad cyclonic flow regime. The
digging nature of this feature will help build a midlevel
subtropical ridge into the Southeast /with Bermuda sfc high also
building into the region/. This will lift the stalled frontal
boundary north as a warm front and push a rather moist and unstable
/dewpoints perhaps mid-upper 60s/ airmass into the Southern US. This
unstable airmass will promote the development of diurnally driven
thunderstorm activity Friday through Sunday...where warm frontal
forcing/orographic forcing will likely also enhance lift for
thunderstorms on Friday across far north Georgia. Anything severe
Fri-Sun would be of the pulse variety at this point. As the closed
low induces sfc cyclogenesis over the Southern Plains this
weekend...it will pivot northeast into the Great Lakes by early
next week. This will push another cold front towards the area
Monday. Too early to determine severe potential...though shear
improves with better upper level jet support. A return to stable
and cooler conditions will follow this fropa just outside of the
extended.

Kovacik


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions through the forecast. FEW-SCT cu still around but
should dissipate as the drier air aloft mixes down. A few cu with
initial lifting Wednesday morning although CSG could see a more
SCT deck late tonight. Cu field will dissipate during the late
morning Wednesday. Winds will be gusty and northwest this
afternoon, becoming near calm or calm tonight and then south to
southwest Wednesday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          79  57  84  62 /  10   0   0  10
Atlanta         78  60  82  63 /   5   0   0  10
Blairsville     74  51  81  58 /   5   0   0  10
Cartersville    77  57  83  62 /   5   0   0  20
Columbus        81  59  84  62 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     77  58  82  62 /   5   0   0  10
Macon           81  56  85  58 /  10   0   0   5
Rome            79  54  84  62 /   5   0   0  30
Peachtree City  78  55  83  57 /   5   0   0  10
Vidalia         81  61  86  62 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17


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