Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 010118
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
918 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
HYBRID WEDGE AND MOISTURE OVERRUN IS ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE
PERSISTENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING SO HAVE TRENDED HIGHER
CHANCE AND SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GA WHICH IS
NOT BEING RESOLVED WELL IN THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS...PERHAPS THE WRF-
NMM HAS DONE BEST. WEDGE AND INITIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER LIKELY
ALLOWED FOR EVAP COOLING FROM PRECIP THIS EVENING RESULTING IN
TEMPS TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER. HAVE THEREFORE BUMPED DOWN
OVERNIGHT MINS ABOUT 4 DEGREES IN NORTH GA. DID NOT LOWER AS MUCH AS
WHAT WAS TRENDING SINCE SOME LOCATIONS MAY HOVER WITH LACK OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT DUE TO ALL THE CLOUD COVERAGE. SOME
SPOTS NEAR THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND FARTHER NORTH RECEIVED
NEARLY AN INCH OR MORE FROM SLOWLY PROPAGATING SHOWERS EARLIER SO
THESE ZONES WILL NEED TO BE KEPT CLOSE EYE ON WITH FURTHER PRECIP
FOR ANY EXACERBATED THREATS TO FLOODING. CANNOT JUSTIFY OTHER
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS MEANS A GLOOMY END TO THE WEEK. HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...GRADUATING TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
GEORGIA...AND HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIMITED AS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF
INSOLATION/ AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ALTHOUGH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IS
HIGHER THAN TODAY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED...BUT STILL
HAVE CONTINUED WITH CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS.

THIS PROLONGED WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WPC
DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA /AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT/
HIGHLIGHTED FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THROUGH
FRIDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NE GA
MOUNTAINS...WITH 1-2 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FFG VALUES
FOR THE AREA DO SUGGEST THAT WITH THE SEVERAL DRY DAYS THIS
WEEK...SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. FOR NOW...HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT FOLLOWING SHIFTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACCUMULATED RAINFALL AND CHANGING CONDITIONS.

GLOOMY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES LOW...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MAY NOT WARM INTO THE 80S.
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.

31

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST OF THE WEEK...FILLING
SOME BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AS IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE
A WET PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

41

PREVIOUS...
/405 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014/... WET WEATHER STARTING IN THE SHORT
TERM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED. LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY BEGINS TO FILL BUT AXIS REMAINS JUST TO OUR
WEST BEFORE LIFTING OUT TUESDAY. THIS PUTS GA IN MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WAVES TRAVERSING THE
AREA OFF AND ON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION KICKS IN AND PROVIDES SUFFICIENT LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
SHRA/TSRA EVEN DURING NIGHTTIME PERIODS. WILL STILL KEEP A DIURNAL
TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BUT KEEPING IN GOOD CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. NOT SEEING ANY SIGN OF
PARTICULARLY INTENSE OR PROLONGED STEADY RAINFALL AS THESE WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. BASIN AVERAGED
RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 1/4 - 1/2 INCH WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THE 4-5 DAY QPF FORECAST SHOWS 1-3 INCHES STATE WIDE WITH
THE BEST RAINFALL STAYING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WITH RAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL STAY
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
INITIAL VFR CIGS LOWERING TO IFR FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THEN
CHANCES PICK BACK UP AFTER 06-09Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR AFTER 18Z. CANNOT RULE
OUT TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON SO MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE PROB30 WITH LATER
UPDATES. WINDS GENERALLY ENE UNDER 10 KTS. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
AREAS OF PRECIP.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS AND PRECIP TIMING.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  82  68  85 /  60  60  50  60
ATLANTA         65  82  69  83 /  50  50  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     62  75  64  77 /  70  70  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    63  82  68  84 /  60  50  40  60
COLUMBUS        70  88  71  87 /  30  40  30  50
GAINESVILLE     63  78  68  81 /  70  70  50  60
MACON           68  86  70  86 /  40  40  40  50
ROME            66  83  68  83 /  60  50  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  65  84  68  85 /  50  50  40  50
VIDALIA         70  90  73  91 /  20  50  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31/BAKER
LONG TERM....01/41
AVIATION...BAKER




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