532
FXUS64 KFWD 110604
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
104 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday Night/

Additional widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
this weekend with threats for heavy rain/flooding and hail up to
1" in diameter.

A lead shortwave disturbance will contribute to increasing mid
cloud cover today, eventually resulting in sufficient ascent and
top-down saturation to allow for light to moderate rain to arrive
from the west late this morning into the afternoon. Parcels in
this layer will have access to meager instability, but it will be
sufficient to allow for some instances of thunder later in the
day. Rain amounts will be fairly light with today`s precip, with
the main round of heavy rain holding off until daytime Sunday.
Otherwise, thickening cloud cover will hold high temperatures a
few degrees cooler than yesterday, mainly in the mid and upper
70s.

The primary shortwave trough will be impinging on North and
Central Texas tomorrow morning, bringing a soggy end to Mother`s
Day weekend. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be
present across most of the CWA, fueled primarily by strong
isentropic ascent. A modest shear/instability parameter space
could allow for some updrafts to produce marginally severe hail up
to 1", but the environment overall will be unfavorable for
organized severe thunderstorms. The primary threat for Sunday will
likely be heavy rainfall and potentially renewed flooding since
soils remain saturated from above normal rainfall in recent days
and weeks. The greatest rainfall totals are expected to be roughly
near or south of I-20, where isolated amounts in the 2-3" range
are possible. While this will mainly impact the area during the
daytime with perhaps a break later in the evening, additional
upstream convection could materialize along this system`s slow-
moving cold front overnight into Monday morning. Due to widespread
rainfall and cloudy skies, temperatures will struggle to make it
to the mid 70s tomorrow afternoon, followed by overnight lows in
the 60s.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 317 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024/
Update:
The previous discussion captures next week`s forecast fairly well.
North and Central Texas will continue in an active weather pattern
with spouts of showers and storms every 2-3 days. During the dry
periods, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Sunday Onward/

Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
materialize for the second half of Mother`s Day weekend and will
continue into Monday to begin the workweek. This will be due to a
deepening upper low and attendant diffuse surface system which
will make eastward progress through the Southern Plains beginning
early Sunday morning. Height falls ahead of this system will
allow more robust southerly flow and northward moisture advection
to occur prior to the arrival of a weak surface cold front and
broad mid-level dynamic ascent. This should culminate in
scattered and mostly disorganized convection beginning Sunday
morning, with coverage increasing through the daytime. Instability
will likely not recover to values supportive of severe weather,
at least not on an organized level. However, a sufficient
parameter space for perhaps a couple of strong storms with mainly
a hail threat could exist, and this would be more likely across
Central Texas where instability should be greatest. In addition,
moderate to heavy rainfall may cause minor flooding issues,
particularly due to already saturated grounds from above average
rainfall over the past several weeks. Localized 24-hour rain
totals of 1-2" are plausible.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue into the daytime
Monday on a more isolated/scattered basis, likely with one final
chance for convective activity along this system`s weak slow-
moving cold front. This boundary will bring slightly drier air to
the region, scouring rain chances to the southeast in the
process. Despite this front`s passage, temperatures on Monday
afternoon will probably be a few degrees warmer than Sunday`s
highs due to less widespread cloud cover and a bit of insolation
returning late in the day. With upper-level shortwave ridging
following on the heels of the departing trough, dry and warmer
weather will prevail on Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will resume Wednesday and
Thursday next week as yet another strong shortwave deepens over
the Central High Plains. This may bring a more traditional and
favorable setup for severe convection to portions of the area with
active dryline and cold front boundaries to our north and west.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with chances for showers and
thunderstorms at the TAF sites beginning this afternoon. Mid
clouds between 10-15 kft will continue thickening this morning,
and light rain with perhaps some embedded TS activity will
materialize from this cloud deck later in the afternoon. Showers
are likely to linger into the evening, before perhaps a lull in
rain is observed overnight into early Sunday morning. Light north
winds as of this writing will gradually return to east or
southeast during the daytime at speeds of 5-8 kts. Worsening
flight category conditions are expected just after the valid TAF
period on Sunday morning.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  78  65  71  67 /  10  50  30  90  60
Waco                60  76  65  73  68 /  20  40  40  90  50
Paris               58  79  61  72  64 /   5  20  20  60  80
Denton              60  77  61  71  64 /   5  40  30  90  60
McKinney            61  77  62  71  65 /   5  40  30  80  70
Dallas              65  78  64  71  67 /  10  50  30  90  60
Terrell             62  77  63  71  66 /  10  50  30  80  70
Corsicana           62  78  66  74  69 /  20  40  30  90  60
Temple              60  78  65  75  69 /  30  30  40  90  50
Mineral Wells       61  75  61  71  64 /  10  50  40  90  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$