Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KFWD 060426 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1126 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING IN WACO AND THE
METROPLEX.

WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW THAN WE HAD 24 HOURS AGO...EXPECT
MVFR STRATUS TO SPREAD INTO THE WACO AREA EARLIER THAN IT DID
SUNDAY MORNING. SO HAVE PLACED OVC015 IN THE KACT TAF STARTING AT
08Z... AND INDICATING THAT CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO BKN025 BY 16Z.
WITH DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THE STRATUS SHOULD
BREAK UP GIVING THEM VFR CONDITIONS AROUND 17Z MONDAY.

THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS MOVED JUST EAST OF THE METROPLEX SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT EXPECT IT TO MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX 10-11Z MONDAY
WITH BKN015 INDICATED IN THE METROPLEX TAFS. HAVE BROUGHT THE
METROPLEX TAFS TO BKN025 BY 16Z AND TO VFR BY 17Z.  MVFR CEILINGS
WILL SPREAD BACK NORTH INTO THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BY 09Z
TUESDAY.

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS
TOMORROW...SO HAVE GONE WITH 18018G28KT STARTING AT 17Z FOR THE
METROPLEX AND WACO TAF SITES. THE GUSTS SHOULD DAMPEN TOWARD
SUNSET MONDAY BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED SURFACE
BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR
THE MOST PART, THE CUMULUS FIELD HAD VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...SO THINK THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
SUNSET. ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...JUST SOUTH OF TEMPLE AND KILLEEN...
THE CUMULUS FIELD WAS MORE CLUSTERED AND TALLER IN NATURE...VERY
SIMILAR IN APPEARANCE TO THE CLOUD FIELD AROUND AUSTIN WHERE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AS OF 2 PM CDT.

WENT AHEAD AND MENTIONED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAMPASAS AND BELL COUNTIES
AS A RESULT. KEPT THE 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS IN PLACE OVER
THE FAR EASTERN CWA AS WELL THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THERE
WERE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR EAST
TEXAS AS WELL AT 2 PM. IF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES...CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STORM GETTING VERY TALL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME
BEFORE COLLAPSING AS COOL OUTFLOW QUICKLY UNDERCUTS THE UPDRAFT.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS COULD ALL BE IN PLAY IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS, OR EASTERN NORTH TEXAS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
CENTERED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FANNING OUT
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW
THINK THAT ANY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXPECTED TO HOLD IN PLACE.

FOR MONDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CONUS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
OVER THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SOUTHEAST OVER THE CWA FOR
TOMORROW. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY
OVER THE CWA...MAINTAINED A DRY AND WARM FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE SOUTH ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS AND MOVE TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING QUICKLY EAST OF THE PLAINS...THERE IS
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE THAT THE FRONT WOULD MAKE IT TO NORTH TEXAS
BASED ON THE SURGE OF COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ALONE. IF THE FRONT IS GOING TO MAKE IT TO NORTH TEXAS...IT
WILL ONLY DO SO IF THERE ARE ENOUGH STORMS ALONG THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF RAIN COOLED AIR TO HELP KEEP THE
FRONT MOVING SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DAYS ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RAIN ALONG THE FRONT TO BRING IT SOUTH
OVER THE CWA BY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF TODAY`S
12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT A BIT SHY OF
REACHING THE CWA...HOLDING UP CLOSER TO WICHITA FALLS THAN TO THE
DFW AREA. IF THE FRONT DOES STALL OUT FARTHER NORTHWEST THAN WHAT
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL TEND TO REMAIN CLOSER TO WICHITA FALLS THAN
TO THE DFW AREA AS WELL. BECAUSE THE SOUTHERN PUSH OF THE FRONT
SEEMS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS
THAT HAVE NOT YET DEVELOPED...THERE IS REALLY NO OBSERVATIONAL
EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME.

LOCAL AREA CLIMATOLOGY WOULD INDICATE THAT SUMMERTIME COLD FRONTS
IN NORTH TEXAS ARE RARE...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE
THE FRONT STALL OUT BEFORE MAKING INTO INTO THE CWA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. WHEREVER THE FRONT STALLS OUT...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS...SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS NEAR THE FRONT ONCE IT STALLS OUT
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS RIGHT
NOW...KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS OF AROUND 40 PERCENT NORTHWEST OF THE
DFW AREA AND DROPPED POPS TO 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CISCO TO SHERMAN...INCLUDING THE DFW
METROPLEX.

WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG THE
FRONT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AND ADJUST POPS ACCORDING TO HOW
CLOSE THE FRONT GETS TO NORTH TEXAS BEFORE STALLING OUT. THINK
THAT IT IS MORE LIKELY FOR THE FRONT TO STALL OUT BEFORE GETTING
INTO THE CWA...BUT WILL WAIT FOR OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO BACK THIS
UP BEFORE REMOVING A CHANCE OF STORMS FROM THE FORECAST. IN THE
UNLIKELY EVENT THAT THE FRONT IS FASTER THAN FORECAST...WOULD HAVE
TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS NUMEROUS
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ALONG THE STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING NORTH AWAY FROM NORTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD
OVER THE REGION AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING THIS
PATTERN SHIFT TAKES PLACE...EXPECT THE HEAT TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER
THE REGION WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES DUE TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN
PLACE. KEPT SOME 10 POPS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA DURING
THIS PERIOD AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN QPF
EACH DAY ALONG WHAT COULD BE A SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY WORKING ITS WAY
INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST. EVEN IF THIS ACTIVITY PANS OUT...IT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING AT
SUNSET EACH DAY. IF THE SEA-BREEZE PROVES TO MOVE FASTER THAN
EXPECTED AND SUBSIDENCE IS A BIT WEAKER THAN EXPECTED...MAY HAVE
TO ADD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IN LATER FORECASTS.

HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER WEST OF
I-35 EACH DAY WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THE
MOST. HIGHS WEST OF I-35 WILL START IN THE MID 90S AND SHOULD
CREEP UP TO 100 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE HIGHS SHOULD START
OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND CLIMB UP TO JUST SHY OF 100
DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CAVANAUGH



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  95  77  92  76 /   5   5  10  20  10
WACO, TX              76  94  76  91  75 /   5   5  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             75  92  75  90  73 /   5   5  10  20  10
DENTON, TX            76  94  76  91  74 /   5   5  10  30  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  93  76  90  74 /   5   5  10  20  10
DALLAS, TX            77  95  77  93  76 /   5   5  10  20  10
TERRELL, TX           76  93  75  90  75 /   5   5  10   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         76  94  75  91  75 /   5   5  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            76  93  76  90  74 /   5   5  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75  94  74  89  73 /   5   5  10  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

58/91


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.