Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 220003
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
603 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms associated with an eastward moving upper low will
move east of DAL between 00 and 0030Z. After that only some
lingering showers are expected at all TAF sites through the
evening until the upper trough axis passes to the east. Once the
trough axis moves east, A Pacific cold front will sweep across
the region. Expect a wind shift to west at all TAF sites between
07Z and 08Z and northwest after sunrise Sunday. Wind speeds will
increase to around 15 knots overnight and between 18 and 25 knots
on Sunday with some gusts around 35 knots. Some brief post frontal
stratus is likely through late morning, especially at the
Metroplex terminals. Skies will clear Sunday afternoon as much
drier air moves into the region.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/
A surface low that was over the Oklahoma Panhandle at 3 PM
continues to deepen this afternoon in response to an approaching
upper level low. The surface and upper level lows will move east
or east-southeast across southern Oklahoma tonight and into
Arkansas by late Sunday morning. The tightening pressure gradient
will result in gusty southwest to west winds across the western-
most parts of the forecast area tonight. Thus, a Wind Advisory is
in effect through 6 PM Sunday for areas along and west of a Graham
to Hamilton to Lampasas. As a Pacific cold front moves through
late tonight and Sunday morning, winds will shift to the
northwest. Expect northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph across all of
the forecast area on Sunday and some gusts to 40 mph are likely. A
Wind Advisory will be needed for all of the forecast area for
Sunday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already developed west
of the I-35 corridor. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms
to move east across the region through this evening. Forecast
soundings show an "inverted-V" profile which is indicative of the
potential for strong gusty winds with these showers and
thunderstorms. Storms should be mostly sub-severe with some gusts
to around 50 mph but will keep an eye on them. Rain chances will
end before midnight across all but areas north of a Jacksboro to
Emory line. Lows tonight will be in the 40s to lower 50s and highs
Sunday will be mostly in the 60s.

Winds speeds will drop off nicely after sunset Sunday and will
become light westerly by daybreak Monday. With clear skies, lows
Monday morning will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. As a
surface high moves off the east, southerly winds will return
Monday and a warm up will begin. Highs Monday will be in the lower
60s northeast to lower 70s southwest. Lows Monday night will be
in the 40s to around 50 and highs Tuesday will be in the 70s.

Another cold front will move through the region Tuesday night.
This system will move through dry but will bring temperatures down
to near seasonal normals for the rest of the work week. Lows
Tuesday night will be in the mid 30s northwest to upper 40s
southeast. Lows will be mostly in the 30s Wednesday night through
Friday night. Highs will be in the 50s to lower 60s Wednesday and
mostly in the 50s Thursday and Friday.

58

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    49  63  42  67  49 /  30  10   0   0   0
Waco                49  65  40  70  48 /  30   5   0   0   0
Paris               46  60  38  62  44 /  50  20   0   0   0
Denton              46  62  39  66  46 /  30  10   0   0   0
McKinney            46  61  40  64  46 /  40  10   0   0   0
Dallas              50  63  43  67  50 /  40  10   0   0   0
Terrell             47  63  41  65  48 /  50  10   0   0   0
Corsicana           49  65  42  68  50 /  40  10   0   0   0
Temple              50  65  40  71  49 /  20   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       47  62  37  71  47 /  20   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ100-115-129-141>143-
156.

&&

$$

79/25


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