Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 291008
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
408 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY EVEN AS THE
UPPER RIDGE IS SHIFTED EAST BY THE TROF PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO 3 MILES OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH BUT UNTIL THEN...A DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON. IF THE SMOKE LINGERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN FORECASTED.

A COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA ON
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF PUSHES TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
LITTLE MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY MONDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES ABOUT
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. EBERT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...LEAVING
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

BY THURSDAY 00Z ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
DEEPENING...HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM. AS THE TROUGH
EVER SO GRADUALLY TRANSLATES EAST...LOWER HEIGHTS WILL BRING A
DECREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES. IN ADDITION EXPECT INCREASING
DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THUS A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AS TIME
UNFOLDS...CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY. FOR NOW KEPT CWA BROADLY IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TO FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED. MALIAWCO

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
BRING MVFR VSBYS TO THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD TURN SOUTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN IMPROVING VSBYS BY THE AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A RESULT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
ALONG WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS BELOW 20 PERCENT.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR. ON SUNDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...
PETROLEUM...SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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