Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 171443
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
843 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Sat...

830AM UPDATE:
Changes to the forecast were first focused on a few showers that
are happening upstream to the northwest on US and Canadian Radar.
A few models have integrated these post frontal showers as moving
across the area through the afternoon. PoPs were previous around 0
percent so raised them up on the hourly trend to show at least a
slight chance. Thunder upstream should dissipate quickly, but
could reappear on the far eastern side of the state by the late
afternoon. GAH


PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION:
Broad upper trof across the northern plains with a shortwave
dropping into the northern Rockies from BC. This wave will push a
dry cold front across the cwa early this morning. Winds will turn
northwest behind the front and increase during the afternoon,
aided by some weak cold air advection. While winds speeds are not
expected to be excessive, the dry conditions with RH dropping into
the teens, will contribute to critical fire weather conditions
this afternoon.

High pressure move over eastern Montana overnight with winds
diminishing and modest humidity recovery. Thermal ridge rebounds
into central Montana on Friday for warming temperatures across the
state. Dry conditions continue with RH again dropping into the
teens. However fire weather conditions will be moderated by weaker
south winds. Ebert


.LONG TERM...Sat night through Thu...

Saturday, a ridge of high pressure will give way to a cold front.
Models easily support 20-25 mph winds and RHs in the 15-20 %
range. Could be another day of heightened fire weather concerns.
Thankfully, no thunderstorms are expected anywhere across the
greater NE Montana area that day.

Saturday night through Monday night, a nearly zonal upper-level
flow might allow a few small-scale embedded disturbances off the
Canadian Rockies to set off a few isolated rain showers mainly
Sunday morning through Monday morning south and east of Fort Peck
Lake.

Tuesday and beyond, another ridge of high pressure builds into the
region bringing more hot and dry conditions to the region, until
the next PAC NW low pressure system can begin to cut into it by
next weekend.

BMickelson


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CAT: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A Front will bring isolated showers across the region
today along with some gusty winds behind the front.

WIND: Northwest at 10 to 20 kts through the early evening...
veering to the north at 5 to 10 kts overnight... becoming
southwest near sunup friday.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
MTZ120-122-134>137.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow


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