Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 070243 AAA
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
743 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND PARALLEL WINDS
ALOFT CONTINUE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNS
THAT THERE IS SOME RELAXING OF THE WINDS IN WESTERN AREAS. WILL
LET THE WARNING RIDE A BIT LONGER IN THOSE AREAS. MIXED SREF INTO
THE WIND GRIDS AND EXPECT WINDS TO BE BLOWING ALL NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
THOSE IN THE WEST WILL FALL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. ADDED RAIN
POPS DUE TO A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH. WILL MAKE FURTHER
EDITS LATER TONIGHT TO THE HAZARDS GRIDS BASED ON WIND
OBSERVATIONS... INCLUDING UPSTEAM. SCT

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WINDY PATTERN IN-STORE FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS BUT WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES.

WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS LONG AS THE
HIGHEST PRESSURE RISES STAY NW OF THE AREA. THIS AREA MOVED INTO SE
ALBERTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH 3 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 6MB, TYPICAL FOR
HIGH WIND EVENTS. A SECONDARY PUSH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT FROM
THE NW BUT LAPSE RATES LOOK QUESTIONABLE. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
LAPSE RATES IN ND WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDS TO HOLD TEMPS UP. OTHERWISE, A LITTLE BIT OF
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR COULD CLIP THE NE ZONES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES EAST SUNDAY BUT THAT SECONDARY COLD PUSH
WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING.

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL BUILD INTO MT SUNDAY NIGHT-
MONDAY BUT A STATIONARY FRONT AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP A TEMPERATURE
DIVISION ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NE WHILE THE SW GETS CLOSE TO 50. TFJ


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE FOCUSED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST
MONTANA. POPS WERE RAISED FOR THOSE PERIODS AS CONFIDENCE IS
SLOWLY INCREASING. GAH

PRTEVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...GRADUALLY SHIFTING WITH ANOTHER TROF PUSHING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

LEE TROF/QUASI ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW RIPPLES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH COLDER
AIRMASS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SNOW.
EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

SYNOPSIS: VFR...MID LEVEL CLOUDS... AND HIGH WINDS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWERED MID LEVEL CLOUD
BASES.

HIGH SURFACE WINDS: OUT OF THE WEST AT 25 TO 35 KTS SUSTAINED WITH
BRIEF GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 TO 50 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH MID EVENING.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL CALM BY ABOUT 10-15 KTS OVERALL BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER SUN UP...ESPECIALLY AT KSDY AND KGDV.

GAH/GILCHRIST


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...GARFIELD...NORTHERN PHILLIPS...PETROLEUM...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...
NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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