Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 241944
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
144 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A WARM WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF COMES THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND STRONG WEST WINDS WILL
FOLLOW...WILL LIKELY NEED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR FORT PECK ON
SUNDAY. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT SITS NORTH OF THE US BORDER DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AND COMES INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT. IN THE SHORT
TERM THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WINDS AND TIMING BUT
THEY DO START DIVERGING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW. THE LONG TERM FORECASTER WILL HAVE MORE IN
THEIR DISCUSSION. FRANSEN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
CHANGES WERE FOCUSED AROUND THE PERIODS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHERE HIGHEST IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY... UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THESE PERIODS AS
EACH MODEL IS ATTEMPTING TO BRING MID LEVEL JETS UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BUT IS NOT SURE WHERE EXACTLY THE JET RESIDES AS IT
PASSES OVER CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS IN TURN AFFECTS LIFT ZONES FOR
AREAS OF FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION FROM QUADRANT DYNAMICS.
CONSEQUENTLY EACH MODEL HAS A DIFFERENT PLACE AND EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. OVERALL
FEELING IS THAT THIS IS A HIGH POP LOW QPF EVENT WHICH SHOULD NOT
KICK IN FOR THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG AS A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA. THE DEEPENING
WILL DRIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LEADING TO A NEARLY 20 DEGREE DROP
FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY AT THE SURFACE.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY... MONDAY NIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
AND HIGH STABLE PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AN INVERSION WITH STRATIFIED TEMPERATURE PROFILE DEPENDENT ON
ELEVATION. BY TUESDAY THE STORM SHOULD HAVE COMPLETELY CLEARED
WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA. GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH IT TO MENTION
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY. THE SYSTEM
ALSO BRINGS IN COLD ENOUGH AIR MASS THAT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. COLDER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BRING A COOL DRY DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS TRADES PLACES
FROM WHAT THEY HAD FORECASTED 24 HOURS EARLIER. GFS NOW HAS THE
WARMER MORE ZONAL SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF HAS THE COLDER NW FLOW
ALOFT SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT TOWARDS BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE PACIFIC MOISTURE RIDING UP
AND OVER IT CAUSING VARIOUS MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS FOR THE
REGION.

AREA WINDS: FROM THE WEST IAROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING.

GAH


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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