Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 202034
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
234 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SHORT RANGE BEGINS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND A COLD AIRMASS BEHIND STRETCHED
OUT FROM THE DAKOTAS.... THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN... AND CENTRAL ALBERTA. THIS HAS PLACED A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CWA
WHERE WINDS ARE WELL ABOVE 20 MPH ON ONE SIDE AND ONLY 5 TO 10 MPH ON
THE OTHER. THIS BOUNDARY IS ALSO CURRENTLY CUTTING THE LAKE IN HALF
WITH THE DRY ARM EXPERIENCING STRONG GUSTS BUT AREAS ALONG THE
MISSOURI ARM BEING NEAR CALM AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY
SETTING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD
EAST DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS TO SLACKEN QUICKLY NEAR SUNDOWN.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY... WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND AN INCOMING RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT... CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
STABLE... DRY... AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. GAH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO MONTANA THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AS AN UPPER TROF DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST. MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE PERIOD IS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
TROF BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE. TIMING DIFFERENCES RESULT IN LARGE
UNCERTAINTY FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE
GFS CURRENTLY FASTER BRINGING THE TROF ACROSS THE ROCKIES NEXT
WEEKEND. EBERT


PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY HAS A LARGE RIDGE COVERING MOST OF THE
US AND SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS IN MINNESOTA. WITH IN
THIS RIDGE... THERE WILL BE A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
FROM WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THIS POINT... THE MOISTURE FROM
THIS SYSTEM STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE A
DRY FORECAST IN PLACE.

THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER MONTANA WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER. THIS
RIDGE REMAINS IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BE
SLOW TO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. WILL GRADUALLY BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.
FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.


&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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