Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 062023
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
FAIRLY QUIET AND DRY PERIOD EXPECTED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER ALBERTA IN THE SHORT TERM WILL SERVE TO BRING A
NORTHEAST WIND AND POSSIBLY SOME SMOKE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE, A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
IS HAVING SUCH A LARGE INFLUENCE THAT CLOUDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH
TIME CLEARING THE SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN CANADA OVER
THE WEEKEND THAT WILL NUDGE THIS SYSTEM NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SATURDAY AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. NORTHEAST MONTANA WILL
BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS AND THUS WILL ENJOY SOME
SUNSHINE. AN INDUCED RIDGE AHEAD OF THE WESTERN CANADA TROUGH
WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SMOKE SHOULD BE LIMITED LATER THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND UPPER FLOW TURNS WEST KEEPING MUCH OF THE
SMOKE TO OUR NORTH. TFJ

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS DESCRIBED BELOW REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK.
A FEW WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE ADJUSTED IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN
COLLABORATION...HOWEVER...OVERALL STILL EXPECT AN UPPER TROUGH TO
BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE INTO TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DRY AS THE
TROUGH PUSHES EAST ON WEDNESDAY. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO MONTANA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE
WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION A CHANCE THERE. THE SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

ATMOSPHERE MAY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

CURRENT MODEL RUNS MOVE THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STACKED LOW FORMING OVER NORTH DAKOTA
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TAKES MOST OF THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR NOW.

NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL
CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PATCHY SMOKE
FROM CANADIAN WILD FIRES MAY PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES HOWEVER
WHICH MAY IMPACT TERMINAL OPERATIONS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE FROM
THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
TO AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FORT PECK
LAKE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY...GARFIELD...MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW


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