Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 172147
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
247 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Thu...

Dry and warm weather continues for the next few days. Chinook
pattern remains in place for Wednesday with generally clear skies
or thin high clouds. Warm air aloft with shallow inversion
reforming in the valleys overnight will be slow to erode during
the day. However with warm air advection continuing overnight do
expect warmer temperatures for Wednesday.

Upper flow begins to turn southwest by late on Wednesday as upper
trof begins to dig in towards the California coast. Winds and warm
air advection aloft ease but with the inversion weakening warm
conditions will continue. Little moisture expected to spread
across the divide so pops remain near zero. Ebert

.LONG TERM...Thu night through Tue...

The undercutting Western trough will not bring much in the way of
moisture to the area Thursday night and Friday, maybe slight
chance to the southwest. Saturday there will be a slightly better
chance for scattered showers around Northeast Montana due to the
continued troughiness and weak boundaries moving about.
Temperatures suggest snow. Sunday follows with a ridge building up
between the departing trough and a storm off the NW coast. Sunday
night the ridge axis shifts east of our area bringing in a
southwest flow aloft and a moisture stream, along with cooler
temperatures for early next week. The result could be more
isolated to scattered precipitation without much in the way of
QPF.

Due to the model differences and intermittent nature of weak
disturbances and low pressure, and nothing focused over us, not
inclined to make any significant changes to the extended portion
of the forecast.

Templer

Previous discussion -
Flow aloft will be southerly Thursday Night and Friday as a broad
upper trough moves into the Western US with an upper low off the
BC coast. A weak cold front Thursday Night could bring a slight
chance of rain and snow showers to the southwest part of the
forecast area.

Temperatures will be some what cooler on Friday but still above
normal. Shortwaves within the broad upper trough will move north
across the Plain States Saturday Night and Sunday bringing
chances for light snow into the area. At the same time, the main
trough splits and the southern branch moves to the east while the
northern branch lifts north into the Canadian Prairies by next
Monday. A shortwave ridge will bring dry weather to the area on
Monday. Then, the upper low that will be off the BC coast over the
weekend, moves inland as an upper trough early next week and
could bring a chance of light snow to the forecast area on
Tuesday. Forrester


&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR - with mid to high broken clouds.

An upper level, but collapsing, ridge is in place over the Pac-NW
and Montana prairie today and Wednesday. Expect increasing broken
mid-to-high clouds over Northeast Montana.

Winds south or southwest at around 5-10kt, except KGGW winds may
be more southeasterly at times.

Templer


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



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