Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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000
FXUS65 KGGW 270318
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
818 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR TONIGHT AND THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS KEEPING IT MILD FOR THE
REGION. SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY... AND EXPECT MORE NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY FOR THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NWS GLASGOW HAS BROKEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR TODAY. WE
ARE 49 DEGREES AT 2 PM. THE OLD RECORD WAS 48 DEGREES IN 1942.
WITH THE SOUTHWEST WIND JUST NOW KICKING IN A BIT...WE MAY RISE A
FEW MORE DEGREES AS WELL. THIS RIDGE IS BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FROM OKLAHOMA CITY TO THE PAC NW. OFFICIAL RECORD INFORMATION WILL
BE MADE AFTER 00Z.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE START OUT WITH A
RIDGE FROM EL PASO NW TOWARDS SEATTLE. SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COMING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WITH SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS COMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THE WEATHER FORECAST REMAINS
PRETTY MILD IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. A SHORT WAVES COMES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION PORTION OF THE WAVE
BARELY CLIPS EXTREME NORTHEAST MONTANA. QPF AMOUNTS ARE ONLY A
TRACE AND WITH TEMPERATURES PRETTY WARM AT THE ONSET...WE COULD
SEE SOME RAIN...MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET AND THEN FLURRIES ON
WEDNESDAY.

850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 12 DEGREES C TODAY...DROP TO AROUND 10
DEGREES C TOMORROW AND THEN DROP WITH A COOL FRONT ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. SO...AFTER
TODAY EXPECT A COOLING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
TEMPERATURE WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.  FRANSEN

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

AFTERNOON UPDATE...
MOST OF THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PRIOR. MAJOR CHANGE SETS IN
AROUND THE FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD WHERE TEMPERATURES NEEDED TO BE
LOWERED AS PREDICTABILITY DROPS OFF AND ENSEMBLE MODEL COLLECTION
ARE NOW POINTING TOWARD A SIBERIAN AIRMASS MOVING DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD BRING US CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS HAVING TROUBLE GETTING ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS COULD SHIFT AGAIN WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. BUT... AS OF NOW
WITH TEMPERATURES BEING SO UNUSUALLY HIGH... THE ONLY PLACE TO GO
WITH HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IS BACK DOWN TOWARDS THE SEASONAL MEAN.
GAH

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
HUDSON BAY LOW EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WHILE CUT OFF LOW LINGERS NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA.
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER MONTANA. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS PUSHING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BUT WITH
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON POSITION OF UPPER FLOW.

A WEAK CHINOOK OCCURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE A SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES PULLS A COLD FRONT INTO MONTANA ON FRIDAY.
GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
IN COMPARISON TO THE ECMWF. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE COULD
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MODEL SPREAD INCREASES...WITH THE GFS RETURNING
TO WARMING CONDITIONS WITH FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF KEEPS A SHARPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WHICH KEEPS
ARCTIC AIRMASS PUSHED UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THE SNOW MELT OF RECENT DAYS...THE COLD AIR WILL
HAVE A HARDER TIME LINGERING SO TRENDED TOWARD SOMEWHAT WARMER
THEN CONSENSUS FOR THE DAYS...WHILE KEEPING THE NIGHTS COLDER.
EBERT

&&

.AVIATION...

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR

SYNOPSIS: A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AREA WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

GAH/BLM


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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