Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 272310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
710 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Broad surface high pressure will linger over the Southeast, before
sliding offshore as a surface low develops and moves northeast
across the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. A surface front will
remain off to our north and linger within a region between the Ohio
Valley, lower Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic regions. This front may
finally move into our area over the weekend.


2315 UTC Update: Winds were updated with a blend of the lastest NAM
and ADJMAV, preserving gusts at hihg elevations overnight, and
limiting gusts at lower elevations on Thursday. Sky cover was
updated from visible satellite imagery. Pops were adjusted based on
radar trends, maintaing greater coverage in the NC mountains.

Previous Discussion: Convection is taking it`s time developing
across the CWFA...mainly confined across the nrn zones near a sfc
bndry and some periodic pop ups across the ridgetops. The lower
atmos has mixed out a little more than expected across the nrn
Upstate and srn NC Piedmont. Td/s are in the m60s leading to a
SBCAPE minima and shallow Cu development. The best activity area
this afternoon/evening will be across the nrn zones and perhaps
across the nrn SRV where higher end CAPE is developing.

The overnight will see gradual moist adv from the SW due to a
subtrop disturbance being lifted north toward the TN valley. Most of
the heavy precip will be aligned south and west of the FA...but the
NC mtn spine counties shud see enhanced -shra/tstm activity
lingering through daybreak. Some isol activity is also possible
across the nrn fthills and nc piedmont with the llvl bndry remaining
fairly stationary.

The fcst for Thu is a bit tricky compared to the previous few days
as mid and upper level forcing will increase somewhat as a broad h5
trof moves across the lower Midwest and an h85 low associated with
the aforementioned ST disturbance continues to advance closer to the
wrn zones. This will increase llvl shear values to arnd 25kts or so
during the afternoon...and along with modest SBCAPE values...some
storms could become loosely organized and produce relatively long
lived cold pools...esp across the wrn zones. This would produce
more of a straight line wind threat as opposed to the localized
microburst activity seen lately. Max temps will be a couple degrees
cooler tomorrow and shud preclude another heat adv issuance based on
similar Td/s across the area.


As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday: At the start of the period, subtropical
ridging will remain in place over the Southeast and portions of the
Western Atlantic, with upper trough extending down the Mississippi
Valley. The initial shortwave will lift northeast on Friday as mean
troughiness continues across the east, with a secondary shortwave
pushes out of the Plains for the latter half of the period. With the
general southwest flow aloft over the Southern Appalachians, plume
of tropical moisture that moved onshore over the Lower Mississippi
yesterday will stretch northeast up the Ohio Valley, over the upper
ridge. Attendant surface front will slowly work its way toward the
Appalachians but with a continued lee trough across the NC
foothills/Piedmont serving as a focusing mechanism for afternoon
convective development. The secondary wave and slug of moisture
pushes across the Tennessee Valley Saturday as the mean trough
slowly pushes east. Fairly good agreement in synoptic fields on the
operational models, but as usual some differences in details and
sensible weather impacts, with the GFS remaining slightly wetter
than the ECMWF.

Overall, best deep-layer moisture will remain to our west with the
front but with the addition of synoptic lift from the broadening
wave, should see a slightly higher than climo trend to pops through
the short term. Instability looks fairly typical of summer, with
mixing across the Piedmont contributing to slightly lower CAPE
values than those across the mountains. Low-level lapse rates will
continue to support an isolated wet microburst or two, with daytime
high temperatures hovering just slightly above normal, and overnight
lows about a category above.


As of 230 PM EDT Wednesday: Aforementioned slug of moisture
associated with secondary shortwave will push across the Southern
Appalachians at the start of the extended period, with the longwave
trough axis continuing to slowly move east and centered over our
area around the start of the work week. Upper ridge strengthening
across the Plains will ridge northeast as the the trough becomes
increasingly positively-tilted, remaining stalled over the area
generally through the period. Corresponding surface trough will
enhance (or possibly itself be enhanced by...chicken-or-egg thing
here) the lee trough that has been in place the past couple of days.
This will keep a higher-than-climo diurnal trend in convection
across the region, with continued support of isolated to widely
scattered strong to severe storms in the form of wet microbursts.
Temperatures trend more toward climo with expected increases in
cloud cover and convection, but will continue to see some variation
each day.

Because the GFS is showing it approaching the NC coast very late in
the period, will note that invest of a disturbance off the coast of
Africa has been given a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation
through 5 days. Model solutions vary *widely* as this pushes WNW
toward the Leeward/Windward Islands - this is way too far out to
make any prognostications at this time!


At KCLT and Elsewhere: Convective chances will be best in NC this
evening, diminishing overnight. Convective chances ramp up again
on Thursday, mainly in the afternoon over KAVL and KHKY. Model
guidance supports MVFR vsby at KAVL around dawn, with low VFR vsby
at KHKY. Other than some brief high VFR cigs overnight at KAVL,
ceiling restrictions were generally not supported. Winds will
favor the SW, except at KAVL overnight where NW is favored.
Surface winds gusts return on Thursday.

Outlook: Falling heights aloft and the arrival of gulf moisture will
support increasing chances of precipitation and perhaps associated
restrictions going into the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            23-05Z        05-11Z        11-17Z        17-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   78%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ037-057-071-


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