Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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FXHW60 PHFO 261332
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
332 AM HST TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building north of the state will strengthen the
trade wind flow through the remainder of the work week, ushering
in more comfortable conditions across the island chain. Relatively
dry and stable trade wind weather will prevail through the week,
with a more showery trade wind pattern expected over the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high is centered around 1800
miles to the northeast of Honolulu, while Hurricane Georgette is
located around 1725 miles east of Hilo. Closer to home, the
remnants of Darby are located around 250 miles to the west-
northwest of Lihue, with trade winds continuing to slowly
strengthen across the island chain. Infrared satellite imagery
shows clear to partly cloudy skies in place across most of the
state, with some areas experiencing more cloud cover, particularly
in windward locations. Meanwhile, radar imagery showers very
little in the way of shower activity, with perhaps a few very
light showers, or more likely sprinkles, moving into windward
locales. Main short term concern for the next several days revolves
around rain chances.

Today through Friday...
High pressure will strengthen to the north of the island chain,
and this will lead to a return of moderate to breezy trades for
the mid to late week period. Inversion heights will remain low
with precipitable water values near to below climatological norms
through the period. As a result, the amount of trade wind shower
activity es expected to remain suppressed, with clouds and
showers focused primarily over windward and mauka areas. Some
lingering higher humidity will remain over the islands today as
the trade winds get better established, but this will be short
lived as more comfortable conditions arrive for the middle to
latter part of the work week.

Friday night through next Monday...
Model solutions are in good agreement showing high pressure
remaining nearly stationary to the north of the state through the
period, keeping a moderate to breezy trade wind flow in place.
Guidance also shows lowering upper level heights and increasing
moisture getting caught up within the trade wind flow, some of
which will likely be the remnants of Georgette. As a result, we
should see an increase in trade wind showers across the state,
with the activity focusing primarily across windward and mauka
areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Trade winds and much drier weather will spread westward across
the state today and tonight. Localized MVFR/IFR ceilings will
continue to affect portions of Kauai early this morning, but these
do not appear to be widespread enough to warrant AIRMET SIERRA for
mountain obscuration at this time. Will continue to monitor.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with no AIRMETs expected
this morning.

Trade winds may increase enough by this afternoon or evening to
warrant AIRMET TANGO for moderate low level turbulence downwind of
the higher terrain.

&&

.MARINE...
The strengthening trades will result in Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds across the typically windier locations near Maui and
the Big Island today through Wednesday. These conditions are
expected to continue through much of the work week, and the SCA
will likely need to be expanded to include other marine zones as
the trades strengthen during the middle to latter part of the work
week.

Surf is expected to remain below advisory levels through the work
week. Surf heights will be on the rise however along east facing
shores during the middle to latter part of the week due to the
strengthening trades.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-
Big Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...Jelsema
AVIATION...Jacobson


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