Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 310133
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL BRING TRADES FOR THE WEEKEND...AND FOR THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK. EXPECT SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL BRING WEST WINDS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING
TUESDAY AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE COMING WEEK...BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED
OVER THE ISLANDS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...AND WILL BRING BACK SOME TRADES FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR IS OVER THE ISLANDS NOW...THE MODELS DO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE REMAINS OF THE
FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

THE MORE INTERESTING FORECAST CHALLENGE COMES WITH THE NEW WORK
WEEK. BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER FRONT IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE LOW...BOTH AGREE WITH WEST WINDS TAKING HOLD OF OUR WEATHER BY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND BOTH AGREE WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE GFS BRINGS
ANOTHER DEFINED FRONT TO THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A LESS DEFINED FEATURE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE
GFS AGAIN BRINGS A MORE DEFINED FEATURE TO THE ISLANDS
FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS DEFINED...BUT DOES SPREAD SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.

WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS...BUT NOTHING MAJOR. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE MODELS EXCEPT WHERE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL AND THEN HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS.
FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS COME IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY IMPACT PHNY THIS AFTERNOON AND PHTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 31/18Z. NO AIRMETS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL REACHED THE WAIMEA BAY BUOY AROUND 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT THE SAME TIME...BUOY 51101 SAW A SMALL
DECLINE. ANOTHER BUMP IN THE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES UNCHANGED THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INCREASING SWELL HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR ELEVATED SEAS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND
KAUAI AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA





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