Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 041809
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
109 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE INLAND MOVEMENT OF A HIGHLY MOIST AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION. VICINITY SHOWERS WITH A BRIEF PASSING DOWNPOUR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO...MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE GOING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR DECKS THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...RURAL
SITES MAY FALL INTO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BOTH IN CEILING AND IN
VISIBILITY. ALTHOUGH RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EARLY WEEKEND
WEATHER PATTERN...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP MID TO
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS NUMEROUS AS TODAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A LONE CELL MAY
OVERCOME MID-UPPER LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND EVOLVE INTO A STORM CELL.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES BETWEEN 2.00 AND 2.20 INCHES WITH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO FOSTER SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA TODAY. BUMPED POPS UP A BIT
TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. A BUILDING RIDGE
WILL IMPART SOME SUBSIDENCE BUT FEEL MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO
OVERCOME THE EXPANDING RIDGE. TWEAKED TEMPS AND SKY GRIDS BUT
OTHER THAN THAT...NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. 43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON WV THIS MORNING AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER TX THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR.

RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT TODAY BUT WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
EXPECTING MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE SHOWERS WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING.
THIS DAILY PATTERN OF SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
SHIFTING INLAND WILL REPEAT EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CREEPING UP AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE. A PLEASANT AND WARMER THAN NORMAL LABOR
DAY WEEKEND IS IN THE OFFING.

RAIN CHANCES START TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT (MODELS DIFFERING ON STRENGTH AND TIMING) SAGS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. WARM DAYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER AS
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS PROMPTED AN INCREASE TO RAIN CHANCES
FOR WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. PATTERN MAY EVEN SUPPORT A DAY OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT TOO EARLY TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE YET. 45

&&

MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SEA/BAY BREEZES
PROMOTING ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE BAYS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF THE
REGION WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN
PLACE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... WITH SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 1
TO 3 FT RANGE. 14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  96  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  94  76  96  76 /  30  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  91  81  91  80 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...31



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