Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 142119
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER WARM/WINDY DAY TODAY AS TEMPS HAVE INCREASED
INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS ACROSS SE TX WITH S/SW WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 KTS AT TIMES. SFC ANALYSIS AT 21Z SHOWED
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER N TX WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM THE MID-SOUTH SW THROUGH ARKANSAS/N TEXAS/W TEXAS.
CONDITIONS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MILD AND HUMID WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE OVER THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER
W TEXAS WHICH SHOULD SWING ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST SHOULD DROP INTO SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SE TX MONDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL DO NOT SEE MUCH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. CURRENT 20/30 POPS FOR MONDAY LOOK REASONABLE. CAPPING
ALOFT WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL
BE TOO FAR NORTH AND EAST TO MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE. BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK TO BE OVER HOUSTON/TRINITY/POLK COUNTIES AND
THOSE CHANCES ARE NOT GREAT.

COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS DOES MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MIN TEMPS FOR TUE/WED WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE A GOOD 7-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERALL
TEMPS FOR THE WEEK AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND WILL BE A GOOD 10
TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SUPPORTS THESE TEMPS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER TEXAS
AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PATTERN
BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THEN AMPLIFIES BY DAY
7/8 OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE MODELS
ARE TRYING TO PUSH A FRONT INTO THE AREA WITH THE GFS HAVING THE
FRONT SUNDAY AND ECMWF HAVING THE FRONT ON MONDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE SPLIT ON FRONTAL PASSAGE SO FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE DAY 7/8 FORECAST AS EXPECTED. STILL SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS
THE AREA COULD USE SOME RAINFALL.

39

&&

.MARINE...
LONG FETCH OF SSE WINDS HELPING TO INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS OFFSHORE TO
5 T0 6 FEET THIS AFTN. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE REMAINING RELATIVELY
LIGHT. AS SUCH WILL LEAVE THE SCEC IN PLACE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BUT COULD BE EXTENDED UNTIL MID MON MORNING AS THE
MODELS KEEP THIS PATTERN IN PLACE. STILL LOOKING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS A WEAK COLD FRONT MON NIGHT...THEN A SECOND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONE TUES NIGHT. A VERY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED (LIKELY JUST EARLY
TUES MORN) BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN. THE SECOND FRONT WILL PROG-
GED TO GIVE US A MORE EASTERLY FLOW FOR JUST WEDS. THEREAFTER...THE
REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE S/SE PREVAILING WINDS WITH THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. 41

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      58  73  47  77  50 /  20  20   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              60  76  50  77  50 /  20  30   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            61  71  56  71  57 /  20  30  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39


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