Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 240011
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
711 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
AM WATCHING THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS A LARGE DERECHO
RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL WORK IN OUR FAVOR IN TERMS OF
WEAKENING THE STORMS. HOWEVER...I DID INSERT TEMPO GROUPS IN THE
KCLL... KUTS...AND KCXO TAFS FROM 05-07Z IN THE EVENT THAT THE
LINE HOLDS TOGETHER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO TERMINALS TO THE SOUTH OF KCXO. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COMPLEX SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE HOUSTON METRO AREA. THE HOUSTON TERMINALS MAY SEE SOME
REMNANT SHOWERS AFTER 07Z...HOWEVER PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME SCATTERED MVFR
CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS DURING PREDAWN HOURS AT SOME OF THE MORE RURAL
TERMINALS. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS BY
MID MORNING.  SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY AGAIN ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND INLAND AT THE
TERMINALS TO THE SOUTH OF KCXO IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHEN HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.   44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ISSUANCE OF THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH
WHICH COVERS OUR NRN MOST COUNTY. LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS APPEARS
TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BUT TIMING MAY BE IN OUR FAVOR WITH SUNSET
APPROACHING. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

LATEST RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER WHARTON...FR
BEND AND COLORADO COUNTIES. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN PULSING UP AND
DOWN AND ARE MOVING FROM NE TO SW BEING STEERED BY FLOW ALFT. ONE
OF THESE CELLS WHEN IT COLLAPSED PRODUCED FAIRLY STRONG WINDS WITH
A FEW TREES DOWN WEST OF BAY CITY...BUT HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
CHARACTERIZED BY WIND GUSTS OF 20 MPH OR SO WITH SOME VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING. ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HEAT INDICES
CURRENTLY IN THE 95 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE...AND LIKELY SET TO RISE
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO.

WOULD NEED HEAT INDEX OF 108F FORECAST FOR TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS
TO TRIGGER A HEAT ADVISORY FOR OUR WARNING AREA...AND THINK WILL
APPROACH THOSE VALUES NEXT 4 DAYS OR SO IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
MORE LIKELY TOP OUT AROUND 105F. FOR THIS REASON DONT PLAN TO
ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREA. NONETHELESS...IT WILL BE HOT AND
HUMID AND PROTECTIVE MEASURES SHOULD BE TAKEN. PRECIP CHANCES
TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH LIKE TODAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH IF INTERSTATE 10...AND ALMOST ANY
TIME OF THE DAY...BUT WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AS UPPER HIGH TRIES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NW...A SLIGHT CAP DEVELOPS...MORE PRONOUNCED OVER NW
ZONES...WHICH SHOULD MEAN LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR
THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT ISOLD STORM ALONG SEA
BREEZE...WITH LIKELY 10 PERCENT OR LESS COVERAGE.

ONCE WE GET TO NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND HEIGHTS FALL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TAD COOLER
CONDITIONS AND BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN STARTING PERHAPS AS SOON AS
NEXT MONDAY AND CERTAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE INDICATED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FOR NE ZONES AT THIS TIME WITH 30
POP NE...20 POP SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THAT PERIOD. 46

MARINE...
MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MORE PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE WATERS...THEN A DRY WEEKEND IS
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS (GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS) ARE STILL IN THE
FORECAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FLAGS ARE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  99  76  99  76 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  98  77  97  76 /  20  30  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  93  80  92  80 /  20  30  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...44


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