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000
FXUS64 KHGX 241933
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
233 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...VERY PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD THE NORM. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
SOME BROKEN TO SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE AREA...AND SOME CIRRUS
ALOFT. ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATED
UPON ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. ACTIVITY
DEVELOPED ALONG 850 MB JET AXIS...WITH THE NORTHERN AND STRONGER
STORMS APPEARING TO GET A LITTLE EXTRA BOOST FROM SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. RADAR NOW CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP.

LIMITED CHANCES TO FORECAST. RATHER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
LAY DOWN RAPIDLY APPROACHING SUNSET. THIS AHEAD OF A WEAK NW-SE
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS
LIMITED...AND AT THIS TIME INCLUDING OUR ONLY RAIN CHANCE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. ANY POST-FRONTAL CHANGES WILL BE
LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN A VERY BRIEF DECREASE IN DEWPOINTS...AND AN
EQUALLY BRIEF NORTHERLY FLOW. FRONT WILL THEN STALL MOVING
OFFSHORE... AND RETREAT RAPIDLY NORTHWARD MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A DEEP LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED.

RETURNING SOUTHERLIES WILL MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE NORM THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. FLOW WILL USHER IN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND WITH THAT WILL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT OF
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ADVECTION FOG. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN MORE OF A STRATUS LAYER THAN FOG. OTHER THAN THAT...WILL
HOLD ONTO A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY...INCREASING SUNDAY AS A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LOW ADVANCES INTO THE MID PLAINS INDUCING A
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE.

INGREDIENTS OF AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM COMING TOGETHER IN SUCH A
FASHION THAT A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN PLACE BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALL BE AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL PASSAGE PROGGED
FOR LATE MONDAY. FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SHARPLY DRIER AND
COOLER AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA FOR MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. EARLIER
CONVECTION NEAR KCXO HAS SINCE WEAKENED/PUSHED EAST OF THE
AREA...WHILE LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO TREK FROM EAST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ROUGHLY KARM TO KGLS LINE. NE TO SW ORIENTED
COLD FRONT CONTINUES A STEADY SOUTHEAST PUSH...AND SHOULD REACH
JUST NORTHWEST OF KCLL BY 00Z...AND NEAR KCXO BY 06Z. PROGRESS IS
FCST TO SLOW AS THE BOUNDARY TAKES ON A MORE E-W ORIENTATION...BUT
IS FCST TO CONTINUE OOZING TWD THE COAST WHILE WEAKENING. MORNING
RAOBS AT KCRP AND KLCH INDICATED HEALTHY CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...WHICH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA...WHILE ERODING
FARTHER NORTH. THE VCTS AT KCLL AND KUTS WAS LEFT AS IS.
OTHERWISE...THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A MIX OF CLOUD
COVER...MOSTLY VFR...WITH MVFR MORE LIKELY IN THE SAME GENERAL
AREA WHERE THE CURRENT LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS...KLBX AND KGLS.


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE.
SOUTHERLIES WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH AS WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD OVER THE
WEEKEND BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING THROUGH THE GULF
WATERS...AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY A GUSTY OFFSHOE FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  85  64  86  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  85  63  85  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            68  77  70  80  70 /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...30
AVIATION/MARINE...MARCOTTE