968
FXUS64 KHGX 140530
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated again today,
  though probably not as widespread as what we saw on Sunday.

- Rain chances further diminish into the midweek time period and
  high temperatures will be a touch higher.

- Moisture availability gradually increases again late in the week
  and early in the weekend and rain chances trend back
  upward...moreso east of Interstate 45.

- Will be keeping an eye on the northeast and north central Gulf
  this week where an area of disturbed weather will emerge. NHC is
  currently assigning a 30% probability of some tropical
  development as of the time of this writing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The parent mid-upper trof that have been responsible for for
shra/tstms to our west and north, and over parts of our region,
will begin lifting to the northeast, but we`ll still be situated
somewhat near a lingering weakness/shear axis between ridging
both to our west & east. Another day of PW`s around 2" is
anticipated and once we get temps warming into the upper 80s-low
90s and the seabreeze moving inland, we`ll see some scattered
precip development across the area today. Overall coverage should
be lower than what we saw yesterday and follow a typical
summertime pattern.

Heading into Tue-Thur time period, some llvl ridging currently in
the eastern Gulf will track westward and we should see some drier
air filter into the region. Though POPs won`t exactly be zero,
corresponding rain chances will considerably diminish. Would
anticipate a slight rise in daytime high temperatures with less
cloud cover as well.

An inverted mid-upper level trof situated off the SE U.S. coastline
is fcst to move across FL and into the northeast Gulf toward
midweek. Whether or not a closed low level circulation is able to
emerge in the area of disturbed wx during the second part of the
work week (and if so, where) remains to be seen. Model ensembles
are a mixed bag in these regards, but we`ll be keeping an eye on
things as the trof makes its way westward across the northern Gulf
coast. Guidance is in fair agreement we`ll see a gradual increase
on moisture Friday into Saturday, esp east of I-45, so one would
expect a gradual increase in POPs. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas of MVFR/IFR are possible during the morning hours today,
especially in areas where it rained yesterday. Any sub-VFR conditions
should improve by mid-morning. Widely scattered shra expected to
move into the coast during the morning. Isolated heavy downpours
possible. The primary concern will be scattered shra/tsra activity
later today. Locally heavy tsra capable of heavy rain, gusty winds,
and brief MVFR/IFR vis are possible. Any tsra activity should diminish
with the loss of daytime heating Monday evening.  Self

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025Typical summer pattern is
anticipated with onshore flow in the 8-15kt range and 2-4 foot
seas. Isolated, mainly overnight and morning showers or
thunderstorms are possible in the Gulf and near the coast in the
overnight and morning periods today, with slightly better chances
of storms in the north parts of the bays in the early-mid
afternoon hours. Chances decline Tue-Thurs as some drier air moves
into the area. NHC will be monitoring the northeast and north
central Gulf for any tropical development later this week. Chances
are currently around 30%, but it is a good reminder for mariners
to keep up with the latest forecasts. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  75  93  74 /  30  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)  94  77  95  77 /  50  20  30  30
Galveston (GLS)  91  82  92  82 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...47