Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 200228
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
828 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A STRATUS DECK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT...WITH AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE DEPTH OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS AROUND 1000 FT. THIS CLOUD LAYER IS THIN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
SEVERAL OBSERVATION SITES WERE ALREADY REPORTING MINOR REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY AS OF 8 PM. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST
AND REMOVED RAIN MENTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS ALL ACTIVITY
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND LOWS
FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND NEAR 50 ALONG THE
COAST.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
RAP AND NAM12 FCST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR ON SATURDAY. WET GROUNDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS EVENT EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRECIP WILL BE PUSHING EWD AND OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS WITH DEPARTING UPPER TROF. SRN PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE
A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THEY WILL PROBABLY FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT.

CLOUD COVER AND RESULTING HI/LOW TEMPS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE THIS WEEKEND. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHARP INVERSION
AROUND 2000FT WITH VARYING DEGREES OF MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH FOR A GOOD PART OF THE WEEKEND. NAM12 KEEPS A
PERSISTENT THIN CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THRU EARLY SUNDAY WHILE OTHERS
SHOW SOME CLEARING. PAST EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
ROUTE SEEMS TO VERIFY MUCH OF THE TIME IN THESE SCENARIOS SO WILL
HOLD ONTO MCLDY CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST THE AFTN HOURS SAT.
FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TWEAK WITH ESTABLISHED TRENDS.

ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES MON AS HIGH PRES EXITS TO THE EAST. WESTERN RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO MIDWEEK. PATTERN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THRU THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.
WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST LOWISH POPS ALONG THIS FRONT CONSIDERING
LIMITED TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN. DRY AND COOL WX THEN PERSISTS
INTO EARLY XMAS MORNING.

SFC HIGH QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE NW AND NCNTL GULF ON XMAS DAY.
WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE SSW AND GRADIENT RAPIDLY TIGHTENS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST. WARMER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE FCST FOR XMAS DAY ALONG W/ INCREASING CLOUDINESS
AS GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED BACK INLAND. NEXT FRONT PENCILEDIN
FOR LATE FRI NIGHT OR SAT MORNING. 47

MARINE...
AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL HELP PROVIDE FOR STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THESE WILL RELAX SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MARINE AREAS ON TUESDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      47  56  46  59  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              49  58  46  60  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            51  57  52  59  52 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$


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