National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 090551
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1151 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014


.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF A VCT-HOU-LFK LINE. UPPER
JET SHOWING A DOUBLE BARRELED ENTRANCE REGION THAT IS
OVERSPREADING AND MERGING OVER THE AREA BUT COLD FRONT IS
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD OF PSX AND NEARING HOU.
LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER UPGLIDE IS WEAKENING AND AM TRENDING THE
FORECAST FOR RAINFALL COVERAGE TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS
NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD FALL TO 500-1000FT FOR 3-5
HOURS AS IT PASSES HOU/LBX/SGR/GLS SITES. THIS IS A DIFFICULT
SCENARIO AND CONFIDENCE OF WHEN THE RAINS TAPER OFF IS LOW DURING
THE MORNING BUT BY AFTERNOON IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND CIGS
RISING BACK INTO VFR BY 15-21Z NORTH TO SOUTH.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CF EDGING SE ACROSS THE FA THIS EVENING. IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR A VICTORIA TO KATY TO CONROE LINE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND BEHIND
IT. THE HIRES ARW WRF MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT
PRECIP PATTERN. IT SHOWS CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED ISO TSTMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE TX WITH A SLIGHT SE SHIFT
OF THE PRECIP AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY. FOR THE
UPDATE...ADDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AND BUMPED INLAND POPS UP.
SOME ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHERE
SOME CONVECTIVE CELL TRAINING SETS UP OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS APPEAR
ON TRACK...JUST SPED THE COOLING UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE NW AND
CENTRAL AREAS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS. 33

MARINE...

A CAUTION STATEMENT WAS ADDED TO THE SW MARINE AREA FOR OVERNIGHT
WINDS. 33/45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      42  51  45  68  53 /  90  30  20  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              48  55  49  69  54 /  90  50  20  40  50
GALVESTON (GLS)            56  59  54  66  57 /  80  60  20  50  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...45

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office