Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 290241
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
941 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WARM-UP...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SETTLING
BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY DECEMBER. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT
WITH SOME AREAS REPORTING TEMPS ALREADY 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXIST WITH SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS MORE OR LESS OVERHEAD. COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...DEEP DRY AIR...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS
DROPPING SOLIDLY INTO THE 20S WITH TYPICAL COLD SPOTS HEADED INTO
THE LOW 20S. IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSING THE OH/TN VALLEY WITH SOME MID CLOUD BUT THE BULK OF THIS
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOUTHERN EDGE MAY
IMPACT THE AREA LATE...THOUGH ITS ABILITY TO SURVIVE THE MOUNTAINS
IS SUSPECT. EITHER WAY IT IS LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON LOWS
BUT COULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPS ACROSS NC AN HOUR OR
2 BEFORE TEMPS WOULD TYPICALLY START TO RISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD SAT MORNING...MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
INTO MONDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...THE WIND DIRECTION WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. HIGHS ON SAT WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ADD ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO
THAT ON SUN AND THIS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL ALSO BE
RISING...MID AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S AT THE COAST SAT NIGHT AND
MID AND UPPER 40S SUN NIGHT. SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG OR STRATUS
OVERNIGHT SAT AND SUN. INCREASING SW WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE NOT ESPECIALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FOG. AT THIS TIME...WILL
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION OF FOG. IN FACT...WILL CARRY CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFFSHORE ON
MONDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD
AFTERNOON. A VERY CHILLY AIRMASS WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE WILL HELP TO
DRAG A SMALL PIECE OF ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR REMAINS OVER NY
AND NEW ENGLAND STATES WE WILL LIKELY JUST SEE A RETURN OF
SEASONABLY COOL AIR. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER INTRODUCED BUT
THERE SEEMS INADEQUATE FORCING FOR APPRECIABLE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN. THE AIRMASS MODIFIES ON WEDNESDAY AND THERE IS THE
SLIGHTEST HINT OF A RETURN OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...THE MAIN
HIGH BEING SPREAD ACROSS THE GOMEX. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THUS LOOK
A BIT MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND THEN UPPER 60S. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW ON FRIDAY BUT SEEMS TO BECOME ALIGNED WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE NATION`S CAPITAL. LOCALLY WE MAY SEE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT THE TREND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. NO FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT SINCE DEWPOINTS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S. LIGHT/VRBL WINDS EARLY SAT WILL BECOME
SOUTH AOB 8 KT BY MIDDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. NOT MUCH
CLOUD COVER TO SPEAK OF OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE SUN/MON. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL TUE/WED AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE
WATERS THIS EVENING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10 KT BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE WATERS. LIGHT RETURN FLOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE PERIOD ENDS...BUT MORE LIKELY THIS WILL
OCCUR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD. ILL DEFINED GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS UNDER 10 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS MOSTLY AROUND 2
FT...THOUGH 3 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR 20 NM.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW SAT MORNING WILL
BECOME SOUTH DURING SAT AFTERNOON AND EVE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE. SW WINDS WILL DOMINATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL INCREASE
DURING THE WEEKEND...THE COOL SHELF WATERS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
EFFICIENT MIXING. WE DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO EXCEED 10 TO 15
KT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SPOTS NEAR
FRYING PAN SHOALS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 4 FT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A
PERSISTENT SE SWELL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT PAIRED WITH A VERY
WEST-EAST ELONGATED AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR SOME FAIRLY
LIGHT AND OFFSHORE WINDS ON MONDAY WHILE SEAS RUN 2 TO 3 FT. FROPA
COMES MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH IT A VEERING AND INCREASING WIND. THE
GRADIENT WILL INCREASE MORE STRONGLY ON TUESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGE SETS UP. SEAS COULD BRIEFLY FLARE TO ADVISORY-WORTHY 6 FT ESP
ALONG NORTHERN ZONES OUTER EDGE. THIS WEDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN
FAIRLY QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY AT WHICH TIME WIND AND SEAS WILL BOTH
ABATE AND NO HEADLINES/FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR




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