Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 240806
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
406 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
TODAY...AND WELL OFFSHORE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ITS SFC RIDGE
AXIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO NC.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE FLOW THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND
NORMAL. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGHER
HUMIDITY LEVELS ALONG WITH A SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE NATION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THIS INCLUDES THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A VERY GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN IS
ALREADY UNDERWAY AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE FLOW WILL BE
ONSHORE AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
STRATOCUMULUS OR FLAT CUMULUS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER...4-6 KFT.
STILL...WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE
AS LOW AS ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE 35
TO 45 PERCENT INLAND AND EVEN HIGHER AS YOU MOVE TOWARD THE COAST.

E TO ESE WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE TODAY WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS. THE BEACHES WILL OBSERVE THE STRONGEST WINDS. EVE
WINDS WILL BE SLOWEST TO TREND LOWER AT THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY STILL ADVECT ONTO THE COAST FROM
OFFSHORE...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY
FROM TIME TO TIME. MODEL PROFILES ARE INDICATING SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AS A
SURFACE BASED INVERSION STRENGTHENS INLAND.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WARMEST INLAND WHERE MID
80S WILL BE MOST COMMON. LOWER 80S WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE
COAST. THE DIURNAL CURVE WILL FLATTEN ONCE THE BEACHES REACH THE
UPPER 70S LATE THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...MOST LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE
LATE NIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...WITH THE BEACHES NOT
DROPPING BELOW THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED HIGH JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
HAVING BECOME A FIXTURE THERE FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WHAT
CHANGES LOCATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS THE SOUTH TO NORTH
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THIS UPPER HIGH. FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...THIS UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS JUST WEST OF THE ILM CWA.
DURING TUESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST AND ACROSS THE ILM
CWA...TO JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS BY TUE EVENING AND NIGHT.
SFC HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION FROM ITS
CENTER LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE ENE OF DELMARVA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND
CAPPING BETWEEN 700MB AND 850MB WILL PREVENT ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CU THAT DEVELOPS BOTH DAYS. THUS...BASICALLY
LOOKING AT NO POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. COULD SEE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
MONDAY...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR BOTH MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS COMING ON TUE. THIS IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO OPENING UP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES OF THE ILM CWA
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAVING MOVED EAST OF THE FA. FOR
TEMPS...STAYED JUST BELOW THE MODEL MEAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MON...AT OR A CATEGORY HIER FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...PLACEMENT OF THE SOUTH TO NORTH MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IMPORTANT TO WHETHER THE FA EXPERIENCES CLOUDS
AND PCPN OR JUST CLOUDS. HAVE FOLLOWED THE BASIC SOLUTION OF
MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE CAROLINAS ON WED INTO
THU. WITH THE GULF SEMI-OPEN TO THE FA AND A DAMPENING MID-LEVEL
S/W TROF HAVING REACHED THE APPALACHIANS BY THU...LOOK FOR
CLOUDINESS AND LOW CHANCE FOR PCPN THU INTO FRI...MAINLY FOR
AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD. FOR WED
AND THU TEMPS...CONTINUED WITH A VARIOUS MODEL MOS CONSENSUS.
BY LATE FRI INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...MODELS DEFINITELY DIVERGE
FROM ONE ANOTHER WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS AND THEREFORE
WILL RELY ON CLIMO FOR SENSIBLE WX...IE. MAX/MIN
TEMPS...AND FOR LOW CHANCE POPS FORECAST FOR THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WITH POPS IN DOUBT FOR MUCH OF THU THRU THE REMAINDER
THE LONG TERM...COULD ONLY PROCESS A LOW CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR THROUGH SUNRISE DUE TO
PATCHY FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT E-SE THROUGH SUNRISE...EXCEPT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT KLBT/KILM AND KFLO. UNDER CLEAR SKIES THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTEST AND
MOISTURE IS THE BEST...AND THAT APPEARS AT KILM ATTM. BUT MOISTURE
IS STILL VERY LIMITED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT MENTION IN
TAFS...BUT CAN NOT DISCOUNT A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR/IFR IN THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS AT KILM.

VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH SCT CU/SC AROUND 5K. WINDS WILL BE E IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOMING GUSTY AT
TIMES AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LITTLE CHANGE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PATCHY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE THROUGH THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING BERMUDA RIDGE WILL DOMINATE
THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT. MARINERS WILL NOTE A WEAK ESE SWELL ON THE
ORDER OF 9 TO 10 SECONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
BE E TO ESE TODAY AND ESE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. SEAS WILL BE 3 TO 4 FT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE POSITIONING OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS
PROGGED TO CHANGE DURING THIS PERIOD. FOR TUE...THIS AXIS EXTENDS
WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS NORTH OF THE ILM COASTAL WATERS.
THEREFORE...WILL BE LOOKING AT A DECENT ESE TO SE ONSHORE FLOW AT
10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...TO AROUND 15 KT OR
POSSIBLY 15 TO 20 KT SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET WHERE THE SFC PG
WILL BE TIGHTER. LOOK FOR A BUILDING PHASE WITH RESPECT TO
SIGNIFICANT SEAS ACROSS ALL WATERS...THEIR LOWEST AT THE START OF
THE SHORT TERM...AND HIEST AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A
SOLID 3 TO 4 F THRUOUT ALL WATERS. WITH A DECENT FETCH TO CONTEND
WITH...LOOK FOR EVENTUALLY THE ONSHORE WIND DRIVEN WAVES OF THE
PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS TO COALESCE RESULTING IN A DECENT ESE TO SSE
GROUND SWELL TO CONTEND WITH.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SUNDAY...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WELL
OFFSHORE HIGH OFF DELMARVA...WILL CROSS THE ATL WATERS TO JUST OFF
THE COAST OF FLORIDA BY WED. THIS PROVIDES A SSE-SSW WIND FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SHUNTS THE DECENT EASTERLY FETCH SOUTHWARD.
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TIME PERIOD...A MID-UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO START THIS PERIOD...IS PROGGED
TO APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS FROM THE SE. NOT MUCH OF A SFC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE...JUST A SFC TROF
AT THIS TIME. ITS POSITIONING WILL PREVENT FEATURES FROM
PROGRESSING OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST THIS PERIOD.
THEREFORE...LOOKING AT LIGHTER WINDS BY THU. WAVEWATCH3 GOES FULL
THROTTLE WITH RESPECT TO SIGNIFICANT SEAS DUE TO THE DECENT
EASTERLY FETCH SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TO
SEE IF ANYTHING BECOMES OF THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH RESPECT
TO ANY SFC DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DCH
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DCH
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...RJD/MRR


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