Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 060027
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
827 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING THE RISK FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW POISED TO ROTATE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER. GUTSY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...BUT THESE WILL BE
COMING TO AN END OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. WEAKER SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE -26C AT 500 MB CORE OF
THE 5H LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL
KEEP ANY SHOWERS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP VERY WEAK/LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND WITH
LOWER 50S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...POTENT UPPER LOW OVER CAPE HATTERAS EARLY
FRIDAY WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY OFF TO THE NORTH. THE LOWEST HEIGHTS
AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE PAST BUT AS THE LOW LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTH SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND IT AND LAPSE
RATES WILL STILL REMAIN STEEP. DO NOT EXPECT SAME ATMOSPHERE AS
THURSDAY AS SFC LOW WILL BE LIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH AND BEST LIFT
SHOULD BE LIFTING OFF WITH IT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE POTENT LOW REMAINS CLOSE. THE
GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVE WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIFT FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT WARMING AND DRYING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND HEIGHT RISES. TEMPS
WILL REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ON FRI BUT WILL WARM TO THE
MID OR UPPER 70S BY SAT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FRI NIGHT
WILL BE NEAR 60 SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN NEXT WEEK AS BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG SE RIDGING DEVELOPS. UPPER LOW PLAGUING THE
AREA THIS WEEK WILL GET KICKED OFF TO THE EAST BY A SHORTWAVE
DROPPING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A
WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY...AND WHILE
GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON ITS SOUTHERN PROGRESSION...BLOSSOMING OF UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE GULF COAST WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPEDED ITS PROGRESS.
GFS IS NOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION (OPPOSITE OF YESTERDAY)
WHILE THE ECM/CMC SHOW SIMILAR EVOLUTIONS WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATING
ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA. THIS SEEMS THE MORE REASONABLE
SOLUTION AND WILL SHOW A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT IN THE NORTH AND KEEP ANY
POP CONFINED OUT OF THE CWA.

THEREAFTER...HEAT RETURNS TO THE AREA AS 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND
15C AS THICKNESSES RISE AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE CLIMO...BUT MON-THU
WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S...COOLER AT THE COAST. AS
THIS HEAT INCREASES...HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW...AND SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...SIGNIFICANT FORCING IS NOT EVIDENT ON THE LONG
TERM SO NATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND WILL MAINTAIN BARELY
MENTIONABLE POP.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MAINLY VFR DURING THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR
IN A 4 HR WINDOW BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS DUE
TO LOW CEILINGS. AND POSSIBLE MVFR FOR ALL TERMINALS DUE TO PCPN
DURING FRIDAY.

THE SPINNING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NC AND SC BORDER
EARLY THIS EVENING. ITS PROGGED TO LIFT NEARLY DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT
...REACHING THE NC-VA BORDER ALONG THE COAST...AND OVER THE
DELMARVA COAST BY SUNSET FRI. WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING
IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL AID VFR STRATOCU AND ALTOCU
CLOUDINESS THRUOUT THE NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THESE IMPULSES WILL
HELP IGNITE PCPN ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN WITH THE
DAYS HEATING ON FRI BEGINNING BY MID-MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL RE-FIRE BY LATE FRI MORNING OR EARLY FRI AFTN.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRUOUT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...BASED ON LATEST BUOY AND SHORE
REPORTS...OUTSIDE OF ANY MARINE CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENING.
WINDS REMAIN ON THE HIGHER END OF THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AWAY FROM
SHORE AND SEAS CONTINUE TO RUN 4 TO 5 FT BEYOND 10 NM. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS.
CONVECTION OVER THE WATERS IS WINDING DOWN AND THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING WITH SEAS LIKELY DIPPING UNDER 5 FT BY
MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A BRIEF SHIFT TO THE NW FRI NIGHT AND SHIFT TO MORE
W-SW SAT NIGHT...REMAINING MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT MOST OF THE TIME.
THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP SEAS GREATEST
SEAS OFFSHORE WITH 2 TO 3 FT EXPECTED NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT
OUTER WATERS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS PERIOD...AND ITS STRENGTH WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY EVENING TO STALL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
BE SOUTH TO SW THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KTS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EARLY SUNDAY WHEN
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. THESE PERSISTENT WINDS COMBINED
WITH LONG FETCH AROUND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREATE A WAVE
SPECTRUM FORMED THROUGH A SOUTHERLY 4-5 SEC WAVE AND A SE 8-9 SEC
WAVE...WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT FORECAST THROUGHOUT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...III
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DCH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.