Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 241053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
655 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK AND LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW
DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY EAST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING STRONGLY ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE N THIS MORNING. THERE WAS A RATHER LARGE RANGE IN
TEMPS AT SUNRISE...LOWER TO MID 40S WERE MOST COMMON ALONG AND N OF
A LINE FROM BENNETTSVILLE AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN AND BURGAW.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BEGIN THE DAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WITH JUST A FEW COOLER POCKETS OF MID 40S. BRIGHT LATE
APRIL SUNSHINE WILL MAKE RATHER SHORT ORDER OF THE MORNING CHILL...
BUT WE WILL STILL FALL SHORT OF HIGHS REACHED WED AFTERNOON...AND
THE SHORTFALL WILL BE MOST SIGNIFICANT ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVERHEAD MIDDAY AND THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE DAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST...A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND NE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL VEER TO EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TO SE LATE DAY AND
THIS EVE. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND WE
SHOULD START TO SEE SOME INCREASING LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AS SE TO S FLOW INCREASES. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK A
LITTLE STRONG FOR FOG...FAVORING STRATUS OVER FOG. HOWEVER...GIVEN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...WILL MENTION PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SOME MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE QUICK TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE
DRYNESS OF THE ONGOING AIRMASS AND THE LATENESS OF THE MORE MOIST
RETURN FLOW...OPTED TO SLOW DOWN THE DEVELOPMENT OF EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS UNTIL DAYBREAK OR FRIDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...NE TO E WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLEST...UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES. THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE CHALLENGING WITH FLOW
VEERING TO SE AND MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING. EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE WITH LOWS BEING REACHED IN THE LATE EVE AND THE EARLY
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...THEN STABILIZING WITH THE APPROACH OF
DAYBREAK IF NOT RISING A DEGREE OR TWO. AT THIS TIME...WILL FORECAST
LOWS IN THE 50S...LOWER 50S N OF A LBT TO ILM LINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING FARTHER NORTH
PRODUCING LESS IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION REACHING TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHC OF STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NORTH OF
AREA BUT MAY AFFECT OUR NORTH CAROLINA ZONES. WILL TAP INTO DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRI AFTN AHEAD OF SYSTEM WITH PCP WATER
VALUES REACHING UP CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES NORTH OF AREA AND UP TO 1.3
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER ZONES. ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOWN INTO SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTN. LLJ NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE REACHING UP TO 35 KTS
FRI AFTN...BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS TAKE ON A STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
DIRECTION BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT OF STRONG TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN
GENERAL FRI AFTN INTO THE EVE. SPC CONTINUES TO MENTION LOW END PROB
OF SVR WITH EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE NOT CORRELATING WELL
WITH DIURNAL HEATING. WILL KEEP LOWER END POPS EARLY IN DAY WITH
MINOR CONVERGENCE AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THEN HIGHER CHC ACROSS
NORTH...LOWER CHC SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTN. TEMPS FRIDAY WILL REACH
CLOSE TO 80 MOST PLACES...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S IN
LIMITED CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FRONT FOR SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE SFC WINDS. A DEEP DRY NW FLOW EARLY SATURDAY
WILL BRING IN PLENTY OF DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. SHOULD SEE SEA
BREEZE DOMINATE IN THE AFTN AND WINDS WILL BACK IN THE LOWER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. OVERALL SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPS
UP CLOSE TO 80 AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND FALLING INTO THE MID 50S SAT
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN INCREASING RETURN
FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH MONDAY AS FAIRLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WORKS ITS WAY EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH EARLY WED. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK PRODUCING
INCREASED CHC OF CLOUDS AND PCP MON THROUGH WED...ESPECIALLY AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED. INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN TO TAP INTO ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF LOCALIZED SHWRS POSSIBLE AS PCP WATER VALUES
REACH UP TO 1.5 INCHES. MORE APPRECIABLY MOISTURE AND GREATER
SUPPORT LATE TUES INTO WILL INCREASE CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TEMPS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSER TO 80 MOST DAYS
IN WARMER AND MOISTER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND GREATER MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS
OR SO...IT THEN WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RESULTANT.
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH A POSSIBLE
MVFR CEILING ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT. A
CIRRUS CEILING WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS ON SATURDAY. VFR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO VEER THROUGH THE PERIOD. NE WINDS
THIS MORNING...UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WILL VEER TO EASTERLY AND DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS EVE WILL BE ESE TO SE...COMING AROUND TO
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 10 KT OR LESS. THE HIGHEST
SEAS WILL BE THIS MORNING...UP TO 3 TO 4 FT. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER EAST INTO THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W-NW. THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT FLOW WILL PRODUCE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...TURNING WINDS TO THE NW
AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
SEAS WILL DROP IN THE OFF SHORE WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. FOR SATURDAY...A MORE VARIABLE FLOW WILL SHIFT
AROUND FROM NW EARLY MORNING TO E-SE LATE DAY REMAINING 10 KTS OR
LESS. SEA BREEZE MAY KICK WINDS AND SEAS UP A BIT CLOSE TO THE COAST
SAT AFTN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST. A FAIRLY LIGHT S-SW RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP BY LATE
SUNDAY...INCREASING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUES AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO THE CAROLINAS. BASICALLY WILL SEE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS MOST OF
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET THROUGH SUNDAY AND BEGINNING
TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MONDAY IN SOUTHERLY PUSH 10 TO 15 KTS
INCREASING UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY TUES MORNING.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...43








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