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000
FXUS62 KILM 011148
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
748 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will waver along the coast through this
weekend, with shower and thunderstorm chances becoming confined
to the immediate coast. Weak high pressure will build in with
drier weather forecast early next week. The official NHC forecast
brings Hurricane Matthew into the Bahamas by Wednesday, bringing
increasing waves and a heightened rip current risk to the local
beaches.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...No changes to the forecast with the latest
update. Previous discussion follows:

Model consensus has a very slow moving cold front now laying
across the forecast area wavering about in the vicinity of the
coastal counties before drifting just offshore by daybreak on
Sunday. At the mid levels a massive upper cut-off low will
continue to sit and spin in place, helping keep the overall
pattern relatively static or very slow-moving. Guidance not in
great agreement as far as pops goes, so again going with a
consensus of guidance, splitting the difference between the dryer
GFS and the wetter NAM. This will give us low chance pops
concentrated along the coast, mainly north of Cape Fear in closest
vicinity to the front, with little to no chance of convection
inland where much dryer air will move in. With no cold advection
post-fropa to speak of, temperatures will remain above normal.
Expect mid 80s for highs today most places, with lows ranging from
the upper 50s well inland to the upper 60s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...A weak and slow moving cold front will
push further SE of the forecast area on Sunday with the front
stalling on Monday well offshore. Dryer air will gradually filter
in on Monday, leaving Sunday as the best day for pops, with low
chance concentrated along the coast. Most places will be dry
Monday, with only slight chance along the coast and dry inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Most of the long term period will depend
of the timing, track and intensity of Hurricane Mathew which is
now a major Cat 5 hurricane just off the tip of South America in
the Caribbean waters. All models show this system tracking
northward to the Bahamas by mid week, but after that there is
quite a spread. The newest run of the GFS keep it hugging the
southeast coast while the ECMWF moves it off from the Bahamas
northeast into the Atlantic. This makes for a very tough forecast
Wed through Fri. The models have also slowed with time with a
window of a few days originally as early as Tues but now it seems
more reasonable that the closest approach will be toward the end
of the period. For now will keep northerly flow through the period
but will keep winds increasing through the end of the period. The
official track of Hurricane Mathew brings it to the Bahamas by Wed
eve. The broad circulation of Mathew along with lingering
moisture/boundary in place just east over the waters should keep
clouds and potential for shwrs getting pushed inland in deep
easterly flow over the northern periphery of Mathew. Overall
expect increasing winds and potential for shwrs Wed through Fri.
Must keep a careful watch on this system as it tracks north from
the Bahamas through mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 12Z...A stationary front is located just off the coast. Fog
has been patchy, and has affected the KILM/KLBT terminals at times
with vsby restrictions to as low as LIFR.

Bank of clouds to the east will block the suns effect this morning
which could cause any potential vsby restrictions due to fog to
persist until 14Z. This is most likely KILM/KLBT/KFLO. Generally
VFR expected thereafter for the remainder of the day, with the
exception of brief MVFR cigs at the coastal terminals through 16Z.
Showers will develop in the afternoon as a weak trough develops
inland. The GFS/HRRR suggests development between the inland and
coastal terminals. Any activity should move NNE, and as such will
not mention in TAFS. There could be VCSH at KLBT around 22Z but
confidence is low.

The inland trough will start to shift to the east in the evening but
any showers along it will have dissipated by then. The trough will
shift back off shore overnight and showers could redevelop by the
pre-dawn hours with VCSH possibly at KILM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Primarily VFR except for morning vsby restrictions
due to fog. Chance shower coastal terminals through Sunday and
on Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM Saturday...No changes to the forecast with the latest
update. Previous discussion follows:

Winds will be light at around 10 kts and variable at times as a
very slow moving cold front wavers in the vicinity of the waters
today and tonight. Seas will range right around 3 ft through the
period.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...A slow moving cold front will eventually
pass to the SE of the waters during the short term, with winds
becoming NE throughout the forecast area on Monday. Winds will
stay modest at around 10 kts on Sunday, increasing post-fropa to
10 to 15 kts on Monday. Seas will range from 2 to 4 ft through the
period.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Winds and seas will become highly
dependent on timing, track and intensity of Hurricane Mathew as
it tracks north into the Bahamas through mid week. North to
northeasterly winds will continue through the period, but they
could increase from 10 to 15 kts early Tues up 20 to 25 kts into
Wed. For now will show a trend of increasing winds and seas up to As
for seas, 2 to 4 ft on Monday will increase to 4 to 6 ft,
especially in the outer waters. Things may change as we continue
to monitor the track of Hurricane Matthew, but will continue with
trend of increasing winds and seas through Wed.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...MRR/RAN
MARINE...REK/RGZ