Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
FXUS62 KILM 310647
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
247 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016
The oppressive heat and humidity will slowly abate early in the
upcoming week. A cool front to our north will drop slowly across
the Carolinas by Wednesday and this will bring a high chance for
thunderstorms early in the new week. Temperatures will finally
return to more normal mid-summer levels after Sunday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Well the earlier convection that dissipate has
redeveloped along old outflows from Burgaw, NC to just south of
Whiteville, NC and then an isolated storm just west of Conway. The
04 UTC run of the HRRR forecasted the convection to increase and the
amazing thing is it actually did increase. The 05 UTC run of the
model shows the convection weakening just before sunrise.
The model trend has been slowing the push of the front into the
region and now indicated its arrival into our area on Wednesday
morning before dissipating. But until then the Piedmont trough and
the heat and humidity will continue into today. The combined maximum
temperatures and humdities will see heat indices reaching to 105
degrees in portions of every county today. Therefore have raise a
heat advisory from 11 AM until 8 PM today.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...The pattern continues to slowly change as a
trough aloft passes across the area and a weak frontal boundary is
still progged to drop into the forecast area late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This will increase the chances of convection to a good
chance and the result will be lower maximum temperatures in the
lower 90s on both Monday and Tuesday.
The precipitable waters are progged to remain over 2 inches on
Monday and Tuesday and with mid-level winds continuing to be rather
weak, I am anticipating some of the thunderstorm to produce heavy
downpours and frequent lightning.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...The mid level pattern will be very weak across the
region, basically a broad weakness between the mid Atlantic ridge
and the building ridge out west. At the surface a front will be
fading and by Thursday little semblance will be left of this
feature. The weakness allows for convection to be possibly each day,
primarily driven by the sea breeze and inland trough. Thursday
appears to feature the lowest pops as the PW will be somewhat
limited. The latest MEX guidance looks good with regards to run to
run consistency and the ongoing forecast for temperatures.
Highlights include highs in the 80s (for the most part) Wednesday
and Thursday. Overnight lows will remain on the warm side as no
upper 60s (climatology) are showing up as of yet.
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 06Z...Expect mostly VFR conditions through the period with a
couple of caveats. First, with inland areas receiving decent
rainfall, some MVFR BR is possible for a couple of hours later
this morning. Second, guidance is showing a quick ramp up of sea
breeze convection by late morning into early afternoon. I used
VCTS to address. Just like today, inland will take precedence
later in the afternoon and into the evening and applied VCTS here
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
convection each day may result in localized MVFR/IFR conditions.
Each morning may also observe brief MVFR/IFR from fog and/or low
ceilings. Otherwise, expect VFR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...South-southwest flow will continue with the
Piedmont trough to the west of the coast waters. The low-level jet
has again developed overnight and the winds have increased only
slightly at 41013. Winds speeds are now running 15 knots with a gust
of 20 knots. This nocturnal jet will weaken again this morning but
winds are expected to remain in the 15 knot range through the day
and seas will run between 2 to 4 feet.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...The models continue to be slower with a weak
front approaching the waters now by late Tuesday nights. With a
nocturnal jet expected again Monday night and the pressure gradient
only slightly tightening expect the southwest winds to stay around
15 knots through the period with at few 20 knot gusts. Seas will
respond and will range between 3 and 4 feet.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Somewhat diffuse wind fields for the middle of
the new week indicative of a decaying front in the area. The
predominant direction should be south to southeast Wednesday then
northeast Thursday. Speeds will be ten knots or less. Little in the
way to force any meaningful change in seas as a range of 1-3 feet
SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening