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000
FXUS62 KILM 082044
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
344 PM EST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK AND
DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY. A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...HARD TO BELIEVE AFTER THIS COLD AND WET
WEEK BBQ GRILLS AND SUNSCREEN BOTTLES MAY GET DUSTED OFF...BUT
THE REBOUND HAS BEEN EYE-POPPING...AS WE HAVE MANAGED TO CREST
ABOVE NORMAL BY A SEVERAL DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WE HAVE NOT HAD MILD TEMPERATURES LIKE THIS SINCE
MARCH 3RD.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND A SLIGHT EASING IN WIND...SUCH THAT BY MIDNIGHT WE CAN
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL DROP OFF MORE SLOWLY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING WEST
TO EAST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BEGINS TO INCREASE LOCAL WSW-W
WINDS. WITH THIS IN MIND...MINIMUMS BY DAYBREAK SHOULD SETTLE IN
A 41-46 DEGREE RANGE MOST LOCATIONS...WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
CLOSER TO THE OCEAN.

DESPITE SOGGY SOILS...ENOUGH WIND SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT IN THE
LOW LEVELS TO PREVENT FOG CONCERNS. AREAS OF LIGHT MIST HOWEVER IN
THE LATE EVENING MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN WIND
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT. AS FAR AS SKY COVER...VERTICAL VISIBILITIES
WILL BE MEASURED IN BILLIONS OF MILES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. IT REALLY IS A NON ISSUE IN TERMS OF ANY EFFECTS ON OUR
LOCAL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR A SHIFT IN WINDS AND SOME CLOUDS. THE FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS FLAT AND THEREFORE NO STRONG PUSH TO THE SOUTH...BUT
IT SHOULD REACH JUST SOUTH OF AREA AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN
EVENING. SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
JET PASSING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES ON SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH A NORTHERLY SHIFT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN SUN NIGHT. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME AFTN CU DEVELOP. GRADIENT
REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AND THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 10 TO
15 KTS. OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. A DOWNSLOPE FLOW SUN AFTN WILL BE OFFSET WITH VERY
WEAK CAA BUT OVERALL EXPECT SIMILAR TEMPS TO SAT BUT WITH A WARMER
START EXPECT READINGS CLOSER TO 70 MOST PLACES EXCEPT COOLER ON
THE BEACHES.

WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER AREA SUN NIGHT...WITHOUT MUCH OF
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. LOWS SHOULD
DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S MOST PLACES.

VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY MON WILL BE COMING AROUND TO THE
W-SW THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH AND EXTENDS
OFF SHORE WHILE LOW PRESSURE REACHES DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE SW GRADIENT FLOW A BIT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT OVER THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS TO PRODUCE SUNSHINE AND TEMPS TOPPING OVER 70
MOST PLACES IN WAA. DEWPOINTS WILL BE UP SLIGHTLY IN MOISTER SW
FLOW KEEPING TEMPS UP ABOVE NORMAL MON NIGHT...IN THE MID 40S MOST
PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...BEAUTIFUL SPRING WEATHER TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH NICE CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IN
BETWEEN UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

INTERESTING MID-LEVEL PATTERN THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED AS A
ROBUST SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW AT 500MB RACES ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND OUT TO SEA BY THURSDAY...WHILE A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THESE
FEATURES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF THEM WARM RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTH-ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL DRIVE TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 70S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES BENEATH A LOT OF SUNSHINE.

CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO FILL OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
SPREADS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST SHORTWAVE.
CONCURRENTLY...NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
THE DOMINANT FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS A TWO-PRONGED EFFECT
LOCALLY. IT HELPS SUPPRESS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA AND FORCE IT OUT TO SEA...WHILE ALSO SPAWNING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE OH VLY AND THEN DRIVING THAT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ESSENCE THEN...THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES WITH NO DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EITHER ONE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN DOES INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT STRUGGLE TO FIND DIRECT AND SIGNIFICANT FORCING
LOCALLY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT WHILE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND ON
WEDNESDAY...TOTAL QPF MAY BE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT GETS SHUNTED SOUTH AS THE 700MB
TROUGH AXIS FORCES GULF MOISTURE OUT TO SEA...AND BEST BAROCLINIC
INSTABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW STAYS NORTH. THUS...CAN GO NO
HIGHER THAN THE INHERITED HIGH CHC POP WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL LIMIT OVERALL WARMING WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGHS ABOVE
CLIMO FOR MID-MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. ONLY CLOUDS TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY
THIN CI/CS. WINDS WILL BE WSW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD GO SSW
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DEVELOPS.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT MAINTAIN A 3-5 KNOT SPEED AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
LO-LEVELS TO JUSTIFY BR DEVELOPMENT AT THE INLAND TERMINALS AND
POSSIBLY KCRE. DUE TO EXPECTED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL INDICATE
MVFR VSBYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AT 5-10 KNOTS BUT NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...THE OCEAN CONTINUES TO RECOVER FROM A
MAMMOTH STORM SYSTEM...WHICH IS STILL SENDING A BACKLASH OF E-ENE
SWELL WAVES ONTO THE COAST...AND SEAS GENERALLY OF 3-4 FEET CAN
BE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE INSHORE WATERS WITH LONG PERIOD WAVES
DOMINANT. HENCE FOR EVENING OPEN SEA WAVES WILL POSE LITTLE RISK
BUT THE LONG PERIODS WILL PROMOTE MODERATE-SIZED BREAKERS TONIGHT.
WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 15 KT AND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND CROSSES THE COAST ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO INCREASE CHOPPINESS IN A MODERATE W
WIND...BUT SHOULD NOT ADD MUCH HEIGHT TO EXISTING SEAS EXCEPT
OVER THE OUTER PORTION WHERE WAVE-HEIGHTS COULD APPROACH 5 FT
LATE TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A WESTERLY FLOW EARLY SUNDAY WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE NW AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT MAY WAIVER OVER AREA BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH BY
SUN EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE A SLIGHT OSCILLATION BETWEEN NW AND
W WINDS THROUGH SUN BEFORE FINALLY BECOME VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SUN NIGHT IN A WEAK GRADIENT FLOW. OVERALL EXPECT A SLIGHT SPIKE
IN W WINDS AND SEAS EARLY SUNDAY AS FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH BUT
WEAKENING FLOW AND SEAS OTHERWISE THROUGH SUNDAY. SEAS UP CLOSE TO
3 TO 4 FT IN OUTER WATERS WILL SUBSIDE IN WEAKENING OFF SHORE FLOW
THROUGH SUN DOWN TO LESS THAN 3 FT.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTH OF WATERS AND LOW
PRESSURE REACHING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE W-SW AND ALSO INCREASE A BIT LATER IN THE DAY.
W-SW WINDS WILL REACH CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 KTS MON AFTN INTO THE
EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS UP TO 3 TO 4 FT MAINLY IN OUTER
WATERS MON NIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE
WATERS CREATES LIGHT W/SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS...WHICH PRODUCE SEAS
OF 2-4 FT THANKS TO A SW WIND WAVE AND A WEAK SE SWELL. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST NW OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING
WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS WILL PINCH THE GRADIENT...AND WINDS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY TO 20-25 KTS...BEFORE VEERING QUICKLY TO THE NW
BY THURSDAY MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THESE INCREASED SW WINDS
DURING WEDNESDAY WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 3-6 FT...AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME. ONCE THE WINDS VEER TO THE
NW...THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT WILL QUICKLY HELP SEAS FALL...BECOMING
2-4 FT...1-2 FT NEAR SHORE...ON THURSDAY AS THE NW WINDS CONTINUE
AND SLOWLY EASE.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR