Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
220 FXUS62 KILM 151027 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 627 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Should see increasing heat risk late in the week. && .UPDATE... Passing trough/wave to the south will push moisture on shore with showers mainly along and off the coast this morning but pushing inland with sea breeze into this afternoon. Updated the Aviation Discussion updated below for 12z TAFs. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Region remains under the influence of broad, but weak high pressure at the surface. The pattern aloft is even weaker than the surface pattern. There is a hint of a ridge extending from the LA/TX coast northeast into western NC while a poorly defined 5h low moves west across the FL Peninsula. The 5h trough associated with the weak low is inverted with the convergence/subsidence north of the low. This pattern would tend to suggest afternoon convection will be limited given the presence of mid-level dry air/subsidence across the eastern Carolinas. Still expect to see some storms develop in the afternoon given SBCAPE AOA 2500 J/kg, precipitable water over 2", and the presence of the sea breeze and Piedmont trough. However, aforementioned mid-level dry leads to MLCAPE struggling to hit 2000 J/kg. The last few days the MLCAPE seems to be more of a predictor of storm activity than SBCAPE and this suggests overall less convective coverage this afternoon and evening. Any storms will be diurnal in nature with convection weakening and dissipating by mid to late evening. Fog chances tonight will be much lower with stronger boundary layer winds in place across the forecast area. Daytime temperatures near normal with varying amounts of both high and low cloud, limiting heating. Lows will run several degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Bermuda High extending westward over the region with ridging aloft. Overall, a typical summertime pattern with moist southerly return flow creating hot and humid weather with afternoon convection mainly focused along the sea breeze boundary and Piedmont trough inland. The ridge strengthens a bit on Thurs which should help to limit aftn convection a bit, but again, expect main focus along sea breeze and farther inland along Piedmont trough. Also may see a few showers work there way on shower overnight into early morning hours. Highs around 90 degrees most areas with heat indices maxing out close to 100 degrees. With ridge strengthening and height rises, expect temps up a few degrees starting Thurs. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridge will be building over the Southeast with increasing warmth heading into the weekend. Temps should reach between 90 and 95 each aftn with increasing chc of Heat Advisory conditions as heat indices reach around 105 or so. Expect more limited aftn convection Fri into the weekend with main focus along sea breeze and inland along Piedmont trough. Models showing some weak perturbations riding over the top of the ridge, but mainly staying north and west of our forecast area. By Sun/Mon, ridge weakens to the south and best shortwave pushes a cold front/trough eastward producing possibly more widespread convection into early next week. Temps should drop a few degrees into early next week, but still expect hot and humid summertime weather. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surge of moisture around 2k ft currently spreading over the coast will lead to SCT to BKN 2k to 4k ft and passing showers at coastal terminals. Chances of sub-VFR will move inland this afternoon, mainly along sea breeze and This will move inland along sea breeze and trough inland this afternoon. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening showers/storms and early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through tonight...While the Bermuda High is the main feature today there is a weak surface low/trough moving across the FL Peninsula. This feature will lead to winds with more of a southerly direction than the typical southwest around the Bermuda High. Gradient remains weak, so not expecting speeds much above 10-15 kt. Seas will run 2-3 ft, a mix of a swell and a wind wave, both from the southeast. Wednesday through Saturday... Bermuda High has hold on area with southerly return flow reaching up to a solid 15 kts at times Wed and Thurs. This will push seas up to 3 to 4 ft. By the weekend, S-SW winds will continue but gradient weakens a bit with winds dropping 5 degrees or so an seas responding and lowering to 2 to 3 ft. Longer period swells may increase a bit Thurs night into Fri. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RGZ NEAR TERM...III/31 SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RGZ MARINE...III/RGZ