Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 280821
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
321 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIP FARTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING MILD AIR AND
INCREASING MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
CLEARING AND COOLER WEDNESDAY AND NEW YEARS DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE END OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A RETURN TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...VIRGA MAY BRING A SHOWY SUNRISE EARLY THIS
MORNING AS EAST EQUATORIAL-PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE ALOFT CAUGHT
IN WSW WINDS ALOFT TRACK OVERHEAD AND ADD ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY TO THE
COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN. THE GENERAL TREND OF RECENT RADAR ANIMATIONS
IS -RA LIFTING GRADUALLY NORTH OF NE SC AND SE NC...WITH LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL TODAY. A FEW DROPS OR BRIEF SHOWERS COULD BRING THE
INTERMITTENT WIND-SHIELD WIPERS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS TO THE WEST.

PLENTIFUL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD BUT PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ALSO
ARE EXPECTED...STILL BOILING DOWN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MANY AREAS.
A MILD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EXPECTED TODAY AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. NEAR THE CHILLIER SEA LOW AND MIDDLE
60S THIS AFTERNOON. A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE WIND IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL SPREAD COOLING INTO THE COASTAL INTERIOR WHERE MAXIMUM TEMPS
WILL BE REALIZED SOONER THAN FARTHER INLAND.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT PRESSES TOWARD THE
COAST...HIGHEST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. BY 12Z/7AM
MONDAY THE FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO SE NC. WARM SECTOR FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT...MIST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NE SC AND
THE SOUTH COASTAL ZONES...ICW...AND SC INSHORE WATERS...AS THE
RICHER DEWPOINT AIR PASSES ACROSS THE CHILLED WATERS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE FRONT
THAT IMPACTS THE REGION REALLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

THE GFS HAS BEEN HINTING AT DECENT POPS AND QPF ON AND OFF FOR A FEW
CYCLES NOW AND WITH A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM A 700MB JET MOVING
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY MIDDAY MONDAY...POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED ONCE AGAIN. THE NAM HAS THIS FEATURE BUT QUITE A BIT
EARLIER WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT LATER. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A GOOD
COMPROMISE. I HAVE INCREASED POPS SOMEWHAT TO LIKELY FOR ALL AREAS
BUT THE COASTAL ZONES SHOULD SEE THE MOST QPF. ENOUGH MOISTURE
LINGERS TO WARRANT LOWER CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WHERE DRIZZLE IS THE MORE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE. I HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT UPWARD FOR LOWS ALL VIA MORE MOISTURE AND A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM OVERALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS
TO SHIFT TO THE CLOSED LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS
AFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER LATE IN THE PERIOD...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UNTIL THIS TIME...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE EAST AND WEAKEN WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WITH A WEAKER SOLUTION AS THE
RIDGE...OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE LOW GETS
KICKED OUT. THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND WEAKENS...RACING UP
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A WEAKLY FORCED FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. WE SAW A SIMILAR SITUATION A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. WE HAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AND HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE VALUES. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT A COLD AIR WEDGE
MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND EXTEND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE AND CIGS LOWER...BR APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A THREAT DESPITE
THE CALM SFC WINDS. HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS STILL HINT AT SCT MVFR
STRATOCU DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK AND LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
THIS MORNING...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME -RA TO THE INLAND TERMINALS.
AVIATION IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED EVEN IF ANY PRECIP FALLS AT KFLO
OR KLBT.

EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KT DURING THE DAY. THIS WIND
TRAJECTORY...BRINGING WARM MOIST AIR OVER COOL SHELF WATERS...WOULD
FAVOR SEA FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AFTER 00Z MON. GUIDANCE AND
SREF OUTPUT ARE ALREADY PICKING UP ON REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. KMYR/KCRE WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST SITES AFFECTED AS
POTENTIAL SEA FOG SPREADS UP THE S.C. COAST. THIS COULD RESULT IN
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...WILL
ADVERTISE MVFR VSBYS WITH SCT IFR/LIFR STRATUS...MAINLY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING/ONSET OF DENSE FOG.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ON MON. MVFR/IFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO TUE. VFR ON WED. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE MAINLY AT
THE COASTAL SITES ON THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...PRONOUNCED LONG PERIOD WAVES ARE ARRIVING
ONTO THE COAST FROM A PREVIOUS ATLANTIC DISTANT STORM...WITH WAVE
PERIODS AROUND 15 SECONDS PROPAGATING ASHORE. LIGHT WIND THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SW AND RISE TO 10-15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN SLIGHTLY ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AS A
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BETWEEN 200 PM AND 600 PM...BUT NOT TOO MUCH
HIGHER THAN 15 KT EXPECTED. HIGHER SPEEDS EXPECTED OFFSHORE TODAY
FROM SW...DUE TO MILDER WATERS THERE. LONG PERIOD E-SE SWELL WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING SSW CHOP TO PRODUCE MODERATE BUMPY SEAS
BUT NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NO TSTMS BUT
PATCHY SEA FOG COULD PLAGUE SOME INSHORE MARINE LOCATIONS AS WINDS
TURN A BIT MORE ONSHORE LATER TODAY.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...A FEW HOURS OF MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY BUT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE
DAY AND WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. SPEEDS
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO 10-15 KNOTS. SPEEDS INCREASE
EVEN FURTHER TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THE
INCREASED GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE. AN UPTICK TO 15-20 KNOTS
CAN BE EXPECTED. SEAS INCREASE FROM 1-3 FEET MONDAY TO 3-6 FEET LATE
TUESDAY WITH A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS FOR MOST PART THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL VERY
LATE. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED WELL WEST OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH/RETURN FLOW VEERS
WINDS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST
EARLY...10-15 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO TEN KNOTS OR LESS BY LATER
THURSDAY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE
1-3 FEET WITH THE HIGHER VALUES ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR






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