Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 011915
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF MORNING STRATUS...A BIT OF
WHICH CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF BLADEN...COLUMBUS...AND
ROBESON COUNTIES...AND SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS DECK HAS THUS FAR
LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING. SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA HAS BROKEN
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THIS HAS KEPT THE SEA BREEZE OUT OF THE
PICTURE...BUT WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF THE STRATUS DO THINK TEMPS
WILL RISE AT A MORE STEADY RATE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER
THE PRESENCE OF THE THICKER CIRRUS SHIELD...QUITE EVIDENT UP
STREAM ON SATELLITE...WILL PREVENT MOST AREAS FROM REACHING 90
TODAY. SO WENT AHEAD AND KNOCKED BACK HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH THE
UPDATE.

THE LACK OF HEATING HAS ALSO RESULTED IN A LACK OF INSTABILITY. SO
EVEN IF A SEA BREEZE OR OTHER TRIGGERING MECHANISM WERE AVAILABLE
DO NOT THINK MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND LATE DAY SEA BREEZE MAY YET YIELD A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE BULK OF THE 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN ON THE DRY SIDE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL WILL
CARRY A SLIGHT CHC POP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PLAN TO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC POP OVERNIGHT AS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THIS AND GENERATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL LONG WAVE H/5 TROUGH PATTERN WILL
PERSIST ALOFT OVER EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT THE
SURFACE WE CAN EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A PIEDMONT-STYLE THERMAL TROUGH
INLAND. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH P/W VALUES UP AROUND 2
INCHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR THESE REASONS WE CAN
EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. TIMING OF THE
SHORT WAVES WILL BE IFFY SO DO NOT THINK WE CAN YET PIN DOWN WHEN
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL HAPPEN. OTHER TRIGGERS TO
CONVECTION WILL ALSO EXIST...WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
THE SEA BREEZE FRONT FURTHER COMPLICATING THE PICTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STAY STALLED
CLOSE TO THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PAIRED WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH
SUBTLY CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORMAL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON, IF NOT A BIT MORE. ALSO,
INSTABILITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS SLOW THE DECOUPLING PROCESS AND THIS LINGERING
INSTABILITY `BENEFITS` FROM THE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE-INDUCED PVA FOR
LIFT. MODELS HONING IN ON AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY WEAKLY CUT OFF. TROUBLE IS
THEY SEEM TO THINK THE POSSIBILITIES OF WHERE THIS OCCURS RANGE FROM
GA TO PA. FAIR TO SAY THAT MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN AND RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE THEIR SEASONABLE
NORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY BOTH
DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO RECEDE BUT EXPECT VFR
EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. THE CLOUD COVER EARLIER HAS IMPEDED
HEATING BUT EXPECT A QUICK RECOVERY AND FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
BUBBLE UP SHORTLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE PINNED NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. SW-W WINDS 5-10 KT EXPECTED TODAY...EXCEPT BECOMING S-SW
AROUND 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW-W WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO 10 TO 15 KT
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS GRADIENT RELAXES. ALTHOUGH PIEDMONT TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT IT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...GIVING
THE NEARSHORE GRADIENT A CHANCE TO RELAX. SEAS WILL RUN 4 TO 5 FT
WELL AWAY FROM SHORE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEFORE DROPPING BACK
TO 3 TO 4 FT AS THU MORNING.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL
TROUGH INLAND. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL PUMP WINDS UP INTO THE
15 TO 20 KT RANGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3
TO 5 FT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND 4 TO 7 FT ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT WE
WILL POST EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON FRIDAY FOR THESE CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE STRENGTH MAY BE MODULATED BY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM STALLS. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IT REMAINS
NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY ALSO WASH OUT OR
WEAKEN WHEN COMPARED TO ITS POSSIBLE STRENGTH LEADING UP TO THE
WEEKEND. AS SUCH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...REK
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/III/RGZ


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