Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 230523
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
123 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO
THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT HAVE FIZZLED OUT THIS EVENING
AS THE SUN HAS GONE DOWN. THE COLD FRONT JUST PUSHED THROUGH ILN
AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH CINCINNATI IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT IS
QUICKLY PULLING EAST WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONT TO WASH OUT
TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
JUST OFF TO OUR EAST WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CIRRUS HAS SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA PRETTY
THICK IN SPOTS THIS EVENING WITH HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING BREAKS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT LOW LIGHT NOT SO SURE ABOUT THERE
BEING MANY BREAKS THOUGH. FOR THIS REASON HAVE BUMPED UP LOWS A
BIT FOR SATURDAY MORNING. STILL AM EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. BUT UPPER HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE BUILDING.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING.
DEW POINTS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING AS WELL PARTICULARLY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS BUT
UNDERCUT IT SLIGHTLY FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.  MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL
WORK THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME LEADING TO SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
A BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN FEATURES
IN THE LONG TERM ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MINOR STRENGTH AND TIMING
ISSUES.  DUE TO THIS HAVE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THE LONG TERM TIME
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
SITES ESPECIALLY 08Z-18Z. WINDS LIKELY TO BE LGT/VARIABLE BUT IF
THEY DO INCREASE LOCALLY IT WILL LIKELY BE OF A EAST/SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT WITH CENTER OF HIGH OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.

MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS REDUCTION AT KLUK IN THE PRE-SUNRISE
HOURS THIS MORNING. CONTINUED TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HAINES
NEAR TERM...HAINES
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...BINAU







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