Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 110558
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1258 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST AT VARIOUS TIMES THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...AND IN PARTICULAR THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SHALLOW...WITH CLOUD BASES AT
AROUND 2500-3000 FEET...AND THUS MANY OF THE HEAVIER
BELOW-CLOUD-LAYER RETURNS WERE COMPLETELY MISSED BY THE KILN
RADAR. WHEN CONSIDERING THE BIGGER MOSAIC PICTURE...AND MENTALLY
INTERPOLATING TO FILL IN THE GAPS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A DOWNWARD
TREND HAS BEGUN. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE JUST STARTING TO NUDGE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
BECOMING LESS AND LESS FAVORED. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS REMAINING IN
THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THEN JUST FLURRIES HEADED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.

MIN TEMPS GENERALLY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO AROUND 0 TO -6 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH A LONG WAVE TROF OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AXIS TO PIVOT EAST THE
REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS S/W ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS
LED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
S/W MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE INTO SRN OHIO/NRN KY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO END ACRS ALL BUT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES EARLY. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES. THEREFORE...HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACRS THE FAR NORTH THRU LATE EVENING WITH
FAVORABLE FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE COLD WITH
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS ACRS THE NORTH WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUN ACRS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE
MID/UPPER 20S SOUTH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST ACRS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CLEARING IN THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 10
NORTH TO NEAR 15 SOUTH.

DIGGING SHORTWAVE TO DROP SE THRU THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH THRU ILN/S FA
FRIDAY NIGHT. IN LOW LEVEL CAA PATTERN 8H TEMPS OF -20 TO -24
DEGREES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AFTN WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
NW FRIDAY NIGHT AS FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. INITIALLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...EXPECT HIGHS
ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 5 NORTH TO AROUND 10
SOUTH. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
HAVE A MENTION OF THESE WIND CHILL VALUES IN HWO ALONG WITH THE
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AREA WILL BE UNDER A COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF DECREASING MOISTURE. FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND
A COLD DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE ILN AREA.

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A LARGE SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. THOUGH THERE WILL BE WARM
ADVECTION...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.

AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...SOME RESIDUAL RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN COUNTIES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
TRAVELING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MAY BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP
ON WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT VERY COLD SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS. SLIGHT MODERATION TO THE LOW 20S IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BRING READINGS INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE NEAR NORMAL 40 ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SKIES ARE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LINGERING VFR STRATOCU MIXED IN WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AND OCCASIONAL CLEAR AREAS. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING AND WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO CUTE SO WILL JUST HANG
ON TO SOME BKN VFR STRATOCU THROUGH MID MORNING. TOUGH TO ALSO
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES WITHIN THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS...BUT VSBYS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME SLIGHTLY
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REFLECTION
OF SOME MVFR CU/SC DEVELOPMENT. WILL THERE ALLOW FOR SOME SCT-BKN
MVFR CLOUDS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD
AGAIN BE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
OHIO...BUT VSBYS SHOULD STILL REMAIN VFR.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LINGERING LOWER CLOUDS TO
ERODE AWAY. WE SHOULD THEN SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...HATZOS/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...JGL


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