Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 301844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
244 PM EDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Southerly flow will result in warm and humid conditions today.
A cold front will push through tonight through Monday morning,
bringing showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier air will
settle in behind the front for Tuesday.


Scattered storms have developed across the far eastern counties
and will continue tracking across this part of the area through
the afternoon. This appears to be just east of the thicker MCS
debris clouds where better insolation is allowing for more
instability. The thicker clouds are holding back temperatures a
bit from their potential, so have lower highs a bit.


Most locations should be dry this evening, except in western
counties where scattered convection may linger. Conditions will
change during the overnight hours as the cold front closes in
from the west. A band of showers and thunderstorms will develop
along the front and move across the area late tonight through
Monday morning. Potent winds aloft will aid in thunderstorm
organization, which may allow stronger updrafts to produce
isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail. Severe potential
may be limited by marginal instability during the overnight to
early morning hours. Heavy rain will accompany the
thunderstorms, leading to localized flooding, especially over
saturated soils in areas that have already received heavy
rainfall in recent days. Showers and thunderstorms will diminish
quickly by Monday afternoon as the front travels east.

A tight pressure gradient and vigorous mixing behind the cold
front will result in wind gusts close to 40 mph Monday

Temperatures will be cooled by clouds, precip and advection
associated with the cold front. Highs are forecast to range from
the lower 60s far west up to the lower 70s far east.


Deep upper level low to track east-northeast across the Great Lakes
into southern Canada Monday night into Tuesday. Best moisture and
lift to our north closer to the upper low. Will limit pops to a
slight chance of a shower far north Monday night into Tuesday. In
tight pressure gradient winds to gust up to 40 mph Tuesday.
Temperatures will be cooler with highs Tuesday from near 60
northwest to 70 southeast.

Confluent westerly mid level flow with surface high pressure
building into the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the
same time a mid level trof develops over the central plains. The
flow backs across the Ohio Valley with moisture spreading back in
from the south Wednesday. Temperatures look to be around 5 degrees
below normal with highs Wednesday ranging from near 60 northwest to
the upper 60s southeast.

Surface wave to track north into the Ohio Valley as upper level low
closes off. This will enhance rain shower chances Thursday. Clouds
and rain will keep temperatures around 10 degrees below normal with
highs Thursday ranging from the mid/upper 50s northwest to the lower
60s southeast.

Model solutions have differed on handling the system at the end of
the week into next weekend. Previous runs have oscillated regarding
the phasing of the streams. Latest trend on GFS and ECMWF phases the
flow with upper level low tracking through the Ohio Valley Friday.
Due to the large changes with each run confidence in fcst is low for
the end of the week into next weekend. Have trended wetter on Friday
and keep a slight chance of a rain shower Saturday.

Will continue cool temperatures with highs Friday in the upper 50s
and lower 60s and generally in the middle 60s on Saturday.


VFR conditions will continue for the early part of the TAF
period. However, south winds will continue to gust up to 30 kt.
Winds will decrease a little after sunset, but some gusts will
still occur. Some weakening convection could work in from the
southwest after 00Z, although there is a fair bit of uncertainty
whether this will happen. Better chance of showers and
thunderstorms will be after 06Z with convection occurring ahead
of a cold front. May be temporary IFR visibilities with these
storms, but this far out in the forecast opted to not include
this potential in a TEMPO group yet. Winds will veer slightly
behind the front and increase in strength late in the TAF

OUTLOOK...Wind gusts to 35 kt possible Monday afternoon and
evening and then again on Tuesday. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities possible again Thursday through Friday.




SHORT TERM...Coniglio
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