Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 181347
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
947 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN GAIN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING ILN SOUNDING IS
SUPPORTING A HIGH RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PASS INTO
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD. RIDGING FROM THIS WILL EXTEND INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.

MODELS HAVE INDICATED A QUICKER PACE TO THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY
AND AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF CWA
TO ACCOUNT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK.

TEMPS WERE ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD WITH A BIT MORE OF AN
UPTICK ON OVERNIGHT LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE FA SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF ACROSS THE AREA.  AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY KEEPING SOME CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ON
MONDAY.  SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATE
MONDAY EVENING.

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT COOL NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA MONDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TIME FRAME.  WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CONTINUED COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE EXPECT WEDNESDAY MORNING
TO BE THE COOLEST MORNING.  WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME HAVE CONFINED 30S
TO EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT
MORE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
H5 S/W THAT IS PASSING THRU KY IS BRINGING SOME AC TO THE SRN TAFS
ATTM. HOWEVER THIS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY TO THE E IN THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FCST. IN ADDITION...SOME ST DEVELOPED OVER N CENTRAL
OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING AND DRIFTED INTO CMH/LCK. THIS ALSO SHOULD
WORK E QUICKLY.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTROL THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LINGERING FOG AT LUK AND ILN FOR
THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE FCST PERIOD BEFORE IT BURNS OFF. WEAK
CAA ALOFT WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD KICK OFF SCATTERED
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.

CU SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT AROUND SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR SKIES. SE
FLOW SHOULD BRING IFR FOG AGAIN TO LUK WITH MVFR FOG TO ILN.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES







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