Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 281944
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
344 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN
OH/NORTHERN KENTUCKY NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS EVEN
INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN OHIO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
THEREFORE CAN/T RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT FAR
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...SO CONVECTION WILL
BE SLOW TO MOVE AND THEREFORE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY CONVECTION.

CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH WITH
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO RESIDE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT
CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH PATCHY FOG PARTICULARLY
IN RIVER VALLEY/FOG PRONE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY...MOVING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE
DAY WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST 1000-2000 J/KG CAPE PER
GFS/NAM. THEREFORE...INSTABILITY/MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
APPROACHING BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED. BUT GIVEN INSTABILITY...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA 2 INCHES/ AND DEWPOINT /LOWER 70S/
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALSO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR
ENDING THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND PAVING THE WAY FOR LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW (GENERALLY COMING FROM THE WNW)...WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
LARGE-SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS OR
SHORTWAVES.

ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH COULD BE SAID TO CONNECT
ALL THE WAY TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGEST.
AS A RESULT...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC...BUT ULTIMATELY HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FOR THE
OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS WILL CERTAINLY DROP BEHIND THE FRONT...MOVING
FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP AS FAR...WITH HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
UPPER 80S (NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS).

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN A STEADY INCREASE GOING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT AND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AT SOME POINT OVER THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AS FOR WHEN
THIS WILL OCCUR...AND THE FRONT IS BARELY DETECTABLE ON THE 12Z
ECMWF. POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY...AND ONLY IN
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. ASSUMING SOME SORT OF WEAK FRONT
DOES MAKE IT INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW
DEGREES FOR SUNDAY...BEFORE WARMING AGAIN GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK.

THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND SHORTWAVES BEGIN
TO RIPPLE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY
LOOK HIGHEST FOR MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE FRONT ADDING TO
THE AVAILABLE FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE BY THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE A
VCSH OR VCTS MENTION IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE.

THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS THERE WILL BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATE IN THE LONGER KCVG TAF. HAVE A SHRA VCTS MENTION IN
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...NOVAK


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