Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 261427
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
927 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BACK EDGE OF SNOW IS EAST OF ROUTE 23 AND EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST. WILL LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 ALTHOUGH I CONSIDERED
STRIPPING OUT THE WEST COUNTIES AND KEEPING THE EASTERN TIER IN.
INSTEAD OF MAKING THE FORECAST COMPLICATED FOR ANOTHER HALF
HOUR...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY CONTINUE AND BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER IT EXPIRES AT 10 THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER CWA.

TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING ON AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
COVER...LEFT THAT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE PACKAGE. WILL LOOK HARDER
AT THIS IN A LITTLE BIT...ALTHOUGH EVEN WITH FULL SUN I DO NOT SEE
MUCH CHANCE OF WARMING TODAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT SEE
ANY BIG CHANGES TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL SOME INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY A MODEST REBOUND IN READINGS AT BEST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ENDED UP BETWEEN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START NOSING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. SHEARED
SHORT WAVE AND ITS WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
FURTHER WEST FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SO DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO
BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE THAT WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL WITH MOS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR LOWS AND HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
00Z GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THIS POINT. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT
APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW.
HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN...THIS WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
HEADING INTO THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS A BIT FASTER ALOFT THAN
AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR GETS DRAWN IN AGAIN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY. 00Z MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.
THUS HAVE OPTED TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WOULD BRING A LOW
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SNOW
FOR THE WEEKEND. BUT CLEARLY CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT THE AREA THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS
ALREADY ENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF SITES KDAY...KCVG..AND KLUK.
SNOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE OUT OF KILN AND THEN KCMH AND KLCK THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE WIND GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS
HAVE SUBSIDED WINDS WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE DAY.

MVFR CIGS WILL START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL AREA TAF SITES
EXCEPT KDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE MVFR CIGS
WILL STICK AROUND TODAY. HAVE KDAY STAYING VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
LINGERED MVFR CIGS TILL AROUND MID DAY AT KCVG...KLUK...AND KILN WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS IN INDIANA WORKING INTO
THAT AREA. WITH WINDS OFF OF THE LAKE LINGER MVFR CIGS A LITTLE LONGER
AT KCMH AND KLCK HOWEVER STILL HAVE THOSE LOCATIONS RETURNING TO
VFR AROUND MID DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE JUST SW OF THE TAF SITES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL STAY OUT OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS AGAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF MVFR CIGS WILL WORK BACK
INTO THE TAF SITES. DECIDED TO LEAVE MVFR CIGS OUT OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AT THIS TIME AND LEAVE LOW
CLOUDS SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ046-055-056-063>065-073-074.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK







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