Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 300808
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
308 AM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

07z/2am water vapor imagery shows center of persistent upper low
centered over central Kentucky.  Scattered showers continue to pivot
around the low, with the most concentrated area of rain immediately
to the north of the center over southern Indiana/far northern
Kentucky.  Based on recent radar loops, have opted to go with likely
PoPs along/south of a Paris to Effingham line early this
morning...with rain chances steadily decreasing further west toward
the Illinois River Valley.  As the day progresses, additional
showers will develop further west, resulting in increasing PoPs
across the remainder of the KILX CWA.  With upper low slowly lifting
back northward and lapse rates steepening, MUCAPE values are progged
to reach the 600-1000J/kg range across the east later today.  As
a result, have mentioned isolated thunder along/east of I-55 this
afternoon.  Given extensive cloud cover and scattered showers,
high temperatures will once again remain in the middle to upper
60s.  Showery weather will continue tonight, although areal
coverage will decrease due to loss of daytime instability.  Will
carry chance PoPs everywhere, with lows dropping into the middle
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Upper low will continue to lift northward into northern Indiana by
Saturday evening.  With this feature still in the vicinity, am
expecting scattered showers and cool conditions to persist through
Saturday.  After that, all model solutions track the low into the
Great Lakes by Sunday, resulting in rising heights across the
Midwest and a return to warmer/drier conditions for early next week.
With increasing amounts of sunshine, high temperatures will reach
the lower 70s on Sunday, then the middle 70s by Monday.

The next big weather question will revolve around how quickly a
western CONUS trough can translate eastward next week.  The speed of
this system will likely be impacted by Hurricane Matthew as it
tracks northward off the North Carolina coast by the middle of next
week.  Given the expected track/intensity of Matthew, think a slower
eastward progression of the trough is prudent.  As a result, have
maintained dry conditions through Tuesday night, with only low
chance PoPs arriving across the western CWA by Wednesday.  Wednesday
night into Thursday appears to be the primary time frame for precip
chances as the trough and its associated cold front gradually make
their way eastward into Illinois.  Before the precip arrives
however, a couple of very warm days with temperatures well into the
70s and perhaps to around 80 degrees will be on tap for Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Upper low to our south will continue to dominate the weather
across the forecast area with a wide variation in cigs with
mostly VFR conditions at the present time, which will deteriorate
to low MVFR to IFR conditions Friday morning. One band of rain
was located over far eastern Illinois, tracking west-southwest and
looks like it will affect BMI and CMI. Another wave was seen over
eastern Indiana and that too was tracking back to the west and
will bring in more rain and low cigs to the area, especially
during the morning and early afternoon hours of Friday. Forecast
soundings Friday afternoon continue to suggest some lifting of the
cigs to MVFR or low VFR after 20z as the second wave shifts away
from our area. Any improvement in cigs looks to be short lived as
model forecast soundings depict cigs going back to IFR again
Friday night. Surface winds will remain out of the northeast at 10
to 15 kts with an occasional gust up to 20 kts at times, especially
around the bands of showers that move across the area.


&&

.ILX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Barnes
AVIATION...Smith



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