Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 011824
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
224 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

A slow moving upper level disturbance will generate numerous rain
showers and a few thunderstorms into early tonight. Conditions
will gradually improve Sunday into Monday though as this low
pressure system exits the region. Dry weather expected by Monday
and Tuesday with temperatures near normal. Lows will be in the
50s the next several nights. Highs around 70 Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Upper low just south of KFWA beginning to lift out toward KDET by
daybreak Sunday. Vast majority of shower/isold thunder had drifted
westward from nw IN through ne IL. Clearing within ern/nrn
quadrant of upper low continues to slowly destabilize and expected
to continue to fill in.

Otherwise showers will diminish this evening and will minimized pops
especially late except far se within trailing mid level trough.
Secondary disturbance wrapping sewd through lower MI tomorrow had
trended even farther north in latest 12Z model solutions and have
cut pops further.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Upper low lifts out through New England on Monday with rapidly
building upper ridge in its wake across the lakes. Vigorous low
level thermal ridge builds in earnest thereafter...peaking Wed-
Thu. No suprise to see additional eastward slowing of upstream sys
ejecting out of the wrn US given intense Hurricane Matt working
north along the se coast. 12Z solution scope somewhat varied with
wrn energy splitting and frontal wave developing through the mid
MS valley Thu the primary trend noted. Will generally rely on a
blend later periods. Temps returning to well above normal by Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016

A large upper low was just southwest of Ft Wayne early this
afternoon. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms were
associated with this system. The upper low should accelerate
northeast with showers diminishing tonight. Kept conditions MVFR
to VFR tonight, although some pockets of IFR CIGs are possible.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Skipper


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