Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 301803
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
203 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible this
afternoon as a weak system moves through the area. Otherwise,
expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 70s
and low 80s. There is a moderate swim risk for Lake Michigan
beaches in LaPorte county this afternoon with breaking waves and
currents expected. There is a slight chance for rain showers
tonight mainly north of I 80/90. Lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Combo of stratus wedge entrenched acrs the cwa and nwd pivot of
mid lvl convergence zone last night into the I-94 corridor in MI
curtailing further dvlpmnt swd acrs nrn IN/nw OH. Failure to
attain sufficient destabilization alg w/abject lack of forcing
warrants scrapping pops all together tonight sans srn MI counties
in proximity to srn MI cvrg zone. Otrws through this aftn xpc just
sct shra and perhaps a few isold tsra as temps struggle to warm
out of the low-mid 70s currently.

Ewd pivot of parent sw ovr the upr MS valley into the ern Grtlks
follows on Sun. Suspect considerable status wedge will persist
within contd moist bndry lyr underneath wkng ll thermal inversion.
Some insolation xpcd in the aftn but likely too ltl too late
w/minimal lingering mid lvl based forcing again xpcd to fail to dvlp
shra and no doubt reflected in sharply dwindling mos pops.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Stg ridging aloft xpcd to build newd into the srn Lakes this pd
as east Canada troughing breaks down at least temporarily bfr
redvlpg twd nxt weekend. Lg scale pattn signals multiple conv
complexes likely to arise within nrn periphery of sharp ll theta-e
ridge that takes shape acrs the cntrl/srn plains. While
timing/placement difficulties abound within poorly clustered med
range solutions...broad brushed shotgun pops remain warranted lt
Tue-Fri although will cont to refrain from spurious/noisy blended
pops.

&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

LIFR conditions due to fog/stratus were widespread along and
south of a ppo-fwa line early this morning with mvfr conditions up
to the MI border. Diurnal heating/mixing should allow cigs/vsbys
to improve to vfr by midday. Sfc low and and upr level trof over
the area should cont to support deep convection, becoming more
widespread during peak heating. Flight conditions could lower to
ifr in this activity, hwvr, latest hrrr suggests convection across
nrn IN will be fairly sct this aftn, so for now stuck with vcts in
tafs. With no sgfnt change in airmass tonight, diurnal cooling
should lead to fog/stratus redeveloping over the area. Models/mos
in fairly good agreement in this regard so lowered conditions in
tafs to ifr by this time tomorrow.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...JT


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