Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 242235
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
435 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED COLD ADVECTION ARE
BRINGING CHILLY CONDITIONS TO THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDINESS ADDING THE
TO EFFECT. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATER TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
SHUTS DOWN AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. SUNNY SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION...AND
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

OVERALL...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM
THIS WEEKEND GOING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IN THE ARKLAMISS REGION. UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE TAPPED BY DISTURBANCES AND COULD BRING PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL STARTING THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
GULF COAST AND WILL BE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL MAKING IT UP
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF NOW THE THREAT IS
TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A MASSIVE ARCTIC HIGH
IS FORECAST TO SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTENSIFY THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION. THIS AIRMASS UNDERCUTTING
THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION AS WE APPROACH THE NEW YEAR...BUT ITS STILL TOO EARLY
TO FOCUS ON ANY DETAILS. REGARDLESS OF THE PRECIP TYPE...IT LOOKS
LIKE A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES/
INCONSISTENCIES REGARDING PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS
THAT MAKE THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST RIGHT NOW. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. /EC/ &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       34  57  38  61 /   4   0   4  10
MERIDIAN      34  57  33  60 /   4   0   3   7
VICKSBURG     33  58  39  63 /   4   0   4  10
HATTIESBURG   35  58  38  63 /   4   0   3  11
NATCHEZ       33  57  42  63 /   3   0   4  15
GREENVILLE    33  55  38  61 /   4   0   4   8
GREENWOOD     33  55  37  61 /   6   0   4   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.