Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 261715 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1215 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will occur through this evening. Southerly winds
will continue to be gusty across the area this afternoon,
especially at GLH. Sustained winds around 10-15kts with gusts to
around 25-30kts will occur through the afternoon. Winds will
subside this evening but sustained winds will remain around 10kts.
MVFR ceilings will move in later tonight after 06Z through
daybreak as moisture increases across the region. /17/


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast appears to be on track, made slight adjustments
to hourly temps with highs in the upper 80s to around 90./17/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight...

Another sunny day is in store for the region but moisture will be
increasing  through the day. Upper ridging will continue but the
surface high that was in place over the ArkLaMiss will slide east
through the day. As this does, the pressure gradient will be
tightened some between this feature and a developing low pressure
system across the Southern Plains. As a result, southerly winds will
be gusty across the area, but across the Delta in particular. Speeds
will be sustained around 20mph with gusts to near 30mph. These gusts
should subside during the evening but breezy conditions will remain.
As low level temperatures increase today and sufficient mixing
occurs, temperatures will be much warmer than was the case Thursday.
Highs today should reach well into the 80s with upper 80s being
common areawide. Some locales should even touch the lower 90s. With
increasing moisture and clouds, overnight lows will be rather mild,
particularly in the west. Readings will only drop into the lower 70s
for locations generally along and west of the Mississippi River
while upper 60s will occur across eastern Mississippi. /28/

This weekend: The recent dry and pleasant conditions will be quickly
fleeting as a much more moist airmass overspreads the region over
the next few days. After dipping into the 40s in a few areas
yesterday, dewpoints will reach the low/mid 70s by Saturday. Through
the day, a surface low will develop over Oklahoma and track toward
the Midwest as a mid/upper trough builds over the upper Plains.
Meanwhile, upper level flow across the Deep South will be more zonal
in nature. Thus, as the cold front associated with this system moves
into the area, it will be oriented from west to east and make rather
slow southward progress. This will keep rain in the forecast for at
least some portion of our forecast area well into next week.

Saturday will be a rather warm day thanks to increasing low/mid
level heights, with highs in the low 90s possible across much of the
area. Heat indices may even sneak into the triple digits in a few
spots given the moist airmass. Though isolated showers can`t be
entirely ruled out, stout capping will keep most areas dry through
the day. Better rain chances begin encroaching on the northern part
of the CWA late Saturday night as convection from earlier in the day
over the Arkansas Valley moves eastward, possibly reaching the Delta
during the early morning hours Sunday. As the front continues to
move into/across the area, rain chances will increase from north to
south Sunday into Memorial Day. Sunday will again be warm,
especially across the south half of the area, and a cap may again
limit precip over that portion of the area.

There continues to be concern for strong to severe storms over the
holiday weekend, as pockets of moderate to strong instability are
forecast to exist across the region. While upper level forcing is
expected to be modest, deep layer bulk shear around 30-40 kt at
times would be sufficient for organized convection. As we are
anticipating multiple rounds of convection, it is difficult to nail
down a narrow time frame for a severe threat, but anytime from late
Sat night/early Sun morning in the north through Monday across the
remainder of the area there appears to be some potential. In
addition, with multiple days of decent thunderstorm chances,
localized flooding is not out of the question. We`ll continue to
highlight these potential threats in HWO and graphical products.

Tuesday - Thursday: The front will stall across the southern half of
the area and begin to lose character through the middle of the week.
Thus scattered, increasingly diurnal, convection will remain in the
forecast through the remainder of the forecast period. The northern
part of the region may see a brief break in rain chances Tuesday as
slightly drier air may slip into that portion of the area. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  70  91  73 /   0   3   8  11
Meridian      88  66  89  72 /   0   3   6  10
Vicksburg     90  71  90  74 /   0   3  11  15
Hattiesburg   88  67  90  73 /   0   3  12  10
Natchez       89  71  90  74 /   0   3  12  11
Greenville    88  72  89  73 /   0   3  12  29
Greenwood     88  71  88  73 /   0   3  12  23

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$


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