Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 021007
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
507 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS LATE TONIGHT. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO INITIATE A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WEST OF
THE ARKLAMISS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST BY MOST HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE
TO APPROACH AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE UPPER ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT PEAK CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL OCCUR
BEFORE THIS TIME AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING WANE ARE EXPECTED TO WANE
DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND WSW 0-3 KM
SHEAR VECTORS NEARLY NORMAL TO THE LINE...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
SEVERE WEATHER GOING IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR THE DELTA REGION
INCLUDING THE MENTION OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
INSTABILITY/FORCING AND THE LCS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FARTHER
EAST ACROSS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
QUICK DECREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DELTA
REGION. THE CAVEAT WILL BE TO WATCH FOR QUICKER SYSTEM SPEED AND
EARLIER APPROACH OF CONVECTION THAT COULD RESULT IN GREATER STORM
INTENSITY.

AHEAD OF THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY...A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM
WITH SOME READINGS APPROACHING 90 DEG F WHILE HEAT INDICES REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SOME DURING THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
/EC/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...

A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING...HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE MIDDLE 70S ON
SATURDAY...WITH MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EXPECTED SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AS LOWS
FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 40S. THEN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL
BE A TAD WARMER AS THEY FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS.  A
WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWING EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THAT TIME.  HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CATEGORY CIGS THIS MORNING IN
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MIX UP TO VFR CATEGORY BY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
GWO/GLH AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THEN A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND
MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  70  84  47 /  51  83  35   0
MERIDIAN      89  68  83  45 /  50  76  60   8
VICKSBURG     92  68  85  46 /  50  87  21   0
HATTIESBURG   89  72  88  55 /  52  52  60   7
NATCHEZ       88  69  80  50 /  52  83  24   0
GREENVILLE    90  67  82  47 /  49  88  16   0
GREENWOOD     90  66  80  44 /  52  90  29   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/19/




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