Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 202049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
249 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Tonight and Sunday: Mid level ridging in the wake of the departing
cold core system along the Gulf Coast will put the lid back on
convective/shower possibilities for the majority of the area tonight
into Sunday. The exception will be in the far western areas where
warm advection in advance of system over the Rockies will begin
getting a foothold as the system moves out into the Plains.

Though precipitation will be hard to come by through Sunday, the
warmth will return in earnest, first with milder overnight lows
tonight then for daytime highs Sunday reaching into the low to
mid 70s./26/

Sunday night through Friday: We will have a progressive
pattern through the period with rain chances for Sunday night into
Monday. Dry weather will come back for Tuesday through Thursday
with showers coming back for Friday with the next system.

On Sunday night an upper trough with a closed low will be over the
Plains. This will be associated with a cold front which will be
tracking across the region for late Sunday night into Monday
morning. Models continue to show decent lapse rates and some good
shear with this system. Mucapes look to be around 1000 joules over
the southeast by late morning with lower 60s dewpoints. The GFS
buffer soundings show barely any 60 dewpoints with capes around 500-
600 joules with more modest soundings along with weak EHI
parameters. There could be a risk of a few strong storms in the
southeast on Monday morning. So with the speed of this system comimg
through in the morning will hold off on mentioning any marginal risk
at this time on day three. Models shows that the best convective
potential will be long the frontal boundary which will exit the
region by the afternoon. Pwats will be around 1.4 inches. The rain
will exit the region during Monday afternoon as the closed system
moves over the Mississippi Valley. Zonal flow will move into the
area on Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west. Dry
weather will be the rule for Tuesday through Thursday.
Upper ridging will build over the region as another storm system
digs into the Rockies. Return flow out of the gulf will bring in some
showers for Friday into Friday night.

As far as temperatures are concern we will have a general moderating
trend for Monday with highs in the 60s. Daily highs will settle into
mainly the 50s for the rest of the period. Daily lows will start
with the mild 50s for Monday night which will transitioned into the
30s Through Thursday night. Temps will rise up into the 40s by
Friday night with the next system./17/

18Z TAF discussion:
VFR ceilings will mainly affect the western TAF sites through the
afternoon with ceilings there becoming MVFR by 21/02Z. To the
east, mostly VFR conditions will prevail, however, some MVFR
visibilities in fog may be encountered at HBG between 21/11Z and


Jackson       50  73  58  67 /  10   5  63  82
Meridian      45  70  54  67 /   7   3  35  77
Vicksburg     54  73  59  66 /  14  13  86  66
Hattiesburg   46  73  57  70 /   7   2  47  72
Natchez       55  73  60  66 /  13  15  86  69
Greenville    52  71  55  62 /  17  16  92  48
Greenwood     52  71  57  64 /  13   9  75  76




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