Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 210909
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
409 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

ONE LAST DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A COOL FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY BRINGING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL READINGS MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT OVERALL COVERAGE/SCOPE WILL BE
LIMITED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS POTENT TROUGH DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO
TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER BASIN. THIS FRONT WON`T REACH THE REGION
UNTIL THIS EVENING, LEAVING ONE MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY.
GIVEN OVERALL RAW MODEL SUITE OF 925MB TEMPS AND PROGGED BUFR
SOUNDINGS FEEL MAVMOS MAY BE 1-2F WARM AND BLENDED IT WITH COOLER
MET GUIDANCE. STILL, EXPECT HIGHS TO BE 4-7F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
REACHING INTO THE 90-93F RANGE. BASED ON THESE TEMPS AND RESULTING
INSTABILITY IN NW DELTA WHERE SLIGHT MOISTURE POOLING WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS LIKELY. HAVE PLACED 15-20% POPS FOR THIS AREA WHICH WAS ABOVE
MAVMOS BUT IN-LINE WITH HI-RES AND SSEO OUTPUT THAT DID WELL WITH
YESTERDAY`S DELTA ACTIVITY.

THE ISO/SCT INSTABILITY INDUCED SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH
EVENING BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES WITH SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY CONTINUING
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ENTERS HWY 82 CORRIDOR 7-9PM TONIGHT. WILL
CARRY THUNDER WORDING TILL 11PM AND CHANGE OVER TO SHOWERS
THEREAFTER. AGAIN, GIVEN LATE TIMING OF FRONT WITH RESPECT TO
OVERALL POOR THERMO ENVIRONMENT, NOT EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG I-20 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY ALONG HWY 84 CORRIDOR.

FOR MONDAY MORNING, DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 50S FOR THE
NORTH 1/3RD BUT RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND ELEVATED WINDS DUE TO PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP TEMPS UP FROM FULL POTENTIAL AND WERE MASSAGED UP
TO UPPER 50S TO 60. AS WEAK INVERSION BREAKS MONDAY MORNING AND
MIXING INCREASES, SURFACE WINDS COULD PICK UP QUICKLY TO 15-20 MPH
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTN. THIS NORTH WIND MIXING DOWN IN COMBO WITH
CAA OF 925MB TEMPS OF 16C NORTH TO 21C SOUTH WILL ONLY SUPPORT SFC
TEMPS IN THE 80-86F RANGE NORTH TO SOUTH. REGION WILL BE CLOUD FREE
MONDAY WITH NO RAIN CHANCES AS PWATS FALL NEAR 0.5". TUESDAY MORNING
TEMPS WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR AS LOW 50S NORTH TO
MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. /ALLEN/

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DRY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY`S COLD FRONT...A DRY AIRMASS
WITH PWS BELOW A HALF INCH WILL RESIDE OVER THE CWA. A LARGE 1027MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST TO EAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR REGION. NORMAL
HIGHS RUN NEAR 85 DEGREES TUESDAY AND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A
DRIER AIRMASS... AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. NORMAL LOWS ARE
NEAR 60 DEGREES AT MOST SITES. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL RAPIDLY TUESDAY EVENING BUT WEDNESDAY MORNING
LOWS WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS TUESDAY MORNING. STILL...MOST SITES WILL
BOTTOM OUT BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BUT PWS WILL BE BACK ABOVE AN INCH AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT WILL AMPLIFY OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WHILE TROUGHING ALOFT DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL
BE DRY BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS
EXPECTED IN OUR SOUTH FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE SATURDAY.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OUTSIDE VERY SPORADIC MVFR GROUND FOG POSSIBILITIES FOR KHBG
THROUGH 13-14Z. A COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
AND ISO/SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z WITH BEST COVERAGE NEAR
KGLH/KGWO/KGTR. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THOSE RESPECTIVE TAFS FOR NOW AND
WILL MONITOR FOR DIRECT INCLUSION IF NEEDED AFTER 00Z AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND WINDS TURN NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT
TOWARDS KJAN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND HAVE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  64  84  55 /  10  16   4   0
MERIDIAN      92  64  85  52 /   9  16   7   0
VICKSBURG     92  62  83  53 /  10  16   3   0
HATTIESBURG   92  68  86  57 /   7  16  14   0
NATCHEZ       91  68  84  57 /   7  16   8   0
GREENVILLE    92  61  81  52 /  23  20   0   0
GREENWOOD     92  60  81  52 /  23  20   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/22




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