Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 281528 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...FINAL CLIPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF
THE ANOMALOUS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TODAY...BRINGING CLOUDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME PRECIP IS
CURRENTLY NOTED (MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION) AT THIS HOUR AND MODEL
CONSENSUS AGREES THAT SOME OF THESE ISOLATED AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WE HEAD IN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND TEMP PROFILES ALOFT ARE JUST COLD ENOUGH IN SOME PLACE TO OUR
NORTH TO RESULT IN SLEET AND FLURRY REPORTS SINCE EARLY MORNING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME LIGHT AND BRIEF SLEET COULD MAKE INTO
THE FAR CORNER OF MY ARKLAMISS DELTA ZONES THIS MORNING AND THIS WAS
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST UPDATE...BUT I MUST STRESS NO IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH SFC TEMPS IN THE 40S.

STILL LOOKS LIKE MANY LOCALES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
IS QUITE CHILLY INDEED FOR LATE MARCH. THIS SHOULD BE CONTRASTED
SHARPLY WITH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SNEAK
OUT SOME AFTERNOON SUN...HELPING BOOST HIGHS UP TO OR JUST ABOVE THE
70 DEGREE MARK. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BE ABOVE 4 KFT IN ALL AREAS THROUGH
DAY ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. IN
SHORT...ANTICIPATED MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY RELAX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX WILL DROP RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINING EASTERLY...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
MOISTURE STARVED. THUS EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT QPF FROM WHAT MANAGES TO
MAKE IT TO THE GROUND OUT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK.

MOVING INTO THE EVENING...THE SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE MOVED SE WITH ONLY
LINGERING...BUT DECREASING CLOUD COVER BEHIND. AFTER A SLOW START TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING...DO STILL EXPECT MINS TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID 30S OVER THE FAR NE WHERE PATCHY FROST MAY BE SEEN AS WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
SET UP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT. THE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT ALLOW MUCH TIME FOR
MOISTURE RETURN...BUT MID/UPPER 50 DEWPOINTS DO MANAGE TO POOL
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH MS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLIGHT DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT ALSO INDICATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 7-8C/KM. WHILE ANAFRONTAL/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL SERVE TO DEVELOP THE SHOWERY ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONTAL
FORCING...MAY STILL BE ABLE TO GET SOME THUNDER IF DEEP ENOUGH
UPDRAFTS CAN TAP INTO THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY./26/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SCATTERED ABOUT ACROSS THE
REGION.  AS THE FRONT`S MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TUESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A SHORTWAVE...EMBEDDED IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES.  AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH...MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE.  THIS...IN ADDITION TO DAYTIME HEATING...
WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THERE ARE SOME SYSTEM EVOLUTION AND TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF LATE IN THE PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.   STILL...
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BRING OTHER DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THE REGION WHERE A WARM MOIST AIRMASS PERSISTS.  A FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...COULD BRING AN END
TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE EASTER WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       61  44  76  57 /  11   4   4  15
MERIDIAN      59  39  71  56 /  15   7   4  15
VICKSBURG     64  45  79  58 /  11   3   5  18
HATTIESBURG   66  44  73  59 /   8   4   4   9
NATCHEZ       68  48  79  58 /   6   1   4   8
GREENVILLE    54  42  71  57 /  20   6   5  39
GREENWOOD     53  41  73  58 /  20   8   5  41

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/26/19



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