Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 012122
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
422 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE METEOROLOGICAL CALENDAR SAYS WE ARE MOVING INTO THE FALL
SEASON...BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS IN THE FORECAST OF ANY EARLY SEASON
COLD FRONTS AS THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN WELL-DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...THE ARKLAMISS REGION WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXES AS A WEAK
NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH AXIS OSCILLATES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE HUMID...LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL BE
INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MORE THAN ISOLATED TO AT MOST SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SO IT DOESN`T LOOK PROMISING FOR
DROUGHT RELIEF ANY TIME SOON.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG/W OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CURRENT TROUGH POSITION. A WEAK MID LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS MAKING IT TOUGH TO
GET MUCH STORM COVERAGE IN SPITE OF FAIRLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 90S. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR GETTING INTENSE UPDRAFTS...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS.
EXPECT THE TROUGH AXIS AND STORM POTENTIAL TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MID LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN MS. /EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LOW MEANDERING NEAR THE
REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL ESSENTIALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE THE FORECAST AREA
BECOMING WEDGED BETWEEN SAID UPPER LOW NOW RESIDING ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE...PREDOMINATELY
RESULTING IN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.

ALL OF THIS EQUATES TO TYPICAL LATE SUMMER HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
EXISTING ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.  HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S...WITH LOWS
FALLING DOWN AROUND 70 EACH NIGHT.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET EACH EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...VERY ISOLD COVERAGE OF AFTN/EARLY EVNG SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT WL BE PSBL MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 TODAY. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY COME IN VCTY OF JAN-HKS-GWO-GLH. OTHERWISE...MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL AGAIN 09Z-13Z.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  93  70  94 /  13  11  12  31
MERIDIAN      69  94  69  92 /  12  10  12  29
VICKSBURG     71  93  70  95 /  11  28  12  22
HATTIESBURG   71  94  72  93 /   9  16  12  39
NATCHEZ       72  91  70  92 /  18  36  12  26
GREENVILLE    71  93  70  94 /   8  31  12  12
GREENWOOD     71  93  69  93 /   7  12  12  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

EC/19/22/


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