Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 191335 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
820 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED MORNING FOG. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK FOR
TODAY./17/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TAF
PERIOD 14Z WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS 3-8KT FROM THE N/NE
TODAY./17/ALLEN/


./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...415 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE FOG DISSIPATES THIS
MORNING...A WARM AND ENJOYABLE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

POCKETS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST
PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN
AREAS POSSIBLE THROUGH 8AM. FOG HAS BEEN TRANSIENT THUS FAR BUT WITH
LOWS FORECAST 1-4F BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...VISIBILITIES OF
1-3 MILES WILL BE MOST LIKELY AND ANY DENSE FOG FORMATION WILL BE
VERY ISOLATED IN TIME AND SPACE THROUGH 8AM. FOG WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY BY 8-9AM IF NOT SOONER.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND SUNDAY... THE AREA WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE
HIGH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE H5 RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT. ONLY PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AND WITH
H925 TEMPS AROUND 15-16C...SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TODAY.  SLIGHTLY WARMER H925 TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL YIELD A 1-3
DEGREE INCREASE WITH MOST AREAS NEAR THE 80F DEGREE MARK WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. S/WV TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY
IMPINGE ON FAR NW AREAS OF THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND ALLOW OF SOME LIGHT ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS
PWATS SLOWLY INCREASE TOWARDS 1". HOWEVER, RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH 7AM MONDAY AS DRIER MID/LOW LEVELS ARE
SLOW TO ERODE. /ALLEN/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK...THE BOTTOM END OF A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WHICH SHOULD BE HIGHEST NORTH OF I-20. MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD DROP SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS...WITH THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
MANY ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE FROM A
LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STANDPOINT...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THESE INGREDIENTS TO CONSOLIDATE SOME SORT OF THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER WHICH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY.
THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE OFF TO THE WEST OF WHERE
CONVECTION OCCURS LEAVING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FEEDING STORMS TO NOT
BE WORTHY OF MUCH SEVERE WEATHER RISK. MAIN LOW LEVEL FORCING
LAGGING BEHIND (ESSENTIALLY OUT OF PHASE WITH) UPPER TROUGH GIVES
CONFIDENCE CONVECTION WILL NOT OVERACHIEVE. AT THIS TIME ANY LOW
RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NE AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS. THIS LOW-END RISK DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK TO
BE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO...EVEN TAKING SOMEWHAT PRIMED
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS INTO ACCOUNT.

INCLEMENT WEATHER SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPS SEASONABLY COOL BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK CONDITIONS WILL BE DECIDEDLY SPRING-LIKE WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80
AND LOWS MAINLY AROUND 60. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A DECENT PROSPECT
FOR THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES BY NEXT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN MODEL IS TRYING TO KEEP ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND
LIFT OF THIS SYSTEM CONFINED WELL TO THE NORTH AND THEREFORE
STRUGGLING TO EVEN GET A FRONT THIS FAR SOUTH. WITH THAT IN MIND I
SLANTED HOMOGENEOUS AREA MEX POPS TOWARD NORTHERN ZONES. /BB/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       78  51  80  55 /   0   0   2   7
MERIDIAN      77  49  78  53 /   0   0   0   4
VICKSBURG     78  51  80  57 /   0   0   3   8
HATTIESBURG   78  51  79  56 /   0   0   0   2
NATCHEZ       77  52  80  58 /   0   0   2   9
GREENVILLE    77  54  80  57 /   0   0   8  15
GREENWOOD     78  51  80  55 /   0   0   4   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/BB











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