Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 062136
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND TWO DISTINCT
CLOSED LOWS. THE FIRST WAS NOTED SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND THE SECOND OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A FEW
LIGHT RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
CLOSED LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER OUR CWA TODAY
BUT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY FALL OVER SOUTHERN CATAHOULA AND SOUTHERN
CONCORDIA PARISHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOSED LOWS WILL TRACK
EAST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES IN THEIR WAKE. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT RESULTING IN A COOL DRY LIGHT NORTH WIND. AS A RESULT
ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE ARKLAMISS WITH
SUNDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AS OUR WINDS ALOFT BECOME
MORE ZONAL. UNDER NEAR FULL INSOLATION TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
NICELY AND TOP OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WARM UP WILL BE BRIEF AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DEEPENS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY.
THIS WILL SEND A SURGE OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR SOUTH ACROSS OUR
REGION MONDAY ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. COLD STRATOCU WILL DROP SOUTH
AROUND THE LARGE CLOSED LOW AND MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS SOME WILL
SPREAD OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTS LOW
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 50S
SOUTH. /22/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE QUITE
AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND A LARGE HIGH OVER THE WEST. THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...BUT EACH AIRMASS LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY AND SHORTLIVED. FRONTS
ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS MOISTURE RETURN IN
ADVANCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION.

BY FRIDAY...MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL RELAX QUITE A BIT WITH
ENCROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKING AS IF IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
MOVE THROUGH AND NOT OFFERING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN. ACTUALLY LOOKS
MORE LIKE A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE ACROSS IT.

GFS ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING MAX TEMPS IN THE 40S/50S AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD EASILY TRANSITIONING INTO THE 60S/70S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATING LOW TEMPS AS WELL./26/

&&

.AVIATION......VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD. SOME MID/HIGH DECK OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH MOST CLEARING OUT AFTER 00-03Z WHILE
SOME COULD LINGER AT ERN TAF SITES AT GTR/MEI UNTIL NEAR 06Z. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE N/NE AROUND 5-7KTS BECOMING LIGHT NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FROST IS PSBL AGAIN TONIGHT. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       31  60  35  53 /   0   0   2   5
MERIDIAN      27  59  32  52 /   0   0   2   8
VICKSBURG     29  60  36  53 /   0   0   2   3
HATTIESBURG   30  61  36  55 /   0   0   2   2
NATCHEZ       31  59  37  53 /   0   0   2   2
GREENVILLE    33  59  36  50 /   0   0   2   6
GREENWOOD     29  59  36  48 /   0   0   3   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/26/DC


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