Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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418
FXUS64 KJAN 192148
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
348 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Monday...

It`s been a warm day across the ArkLaMiss region as upper ridging
remains firmly in place over the region. Temperatures this afternoon
have warmed into the upper 70s across the Highway 82 corridor and
the lower 80s elsewhere. Several of our climate sites have either
tied or broken record high temperatures for today and expect that
the rest will follow suit before peak heating subsides.

A very mild night is in store as temperatures drop into the upper
50s in the west and lower 50s across the east. Guidance today is not
as bullish with dense fog as it was for last night. Think there
could be patchy fog everywhere with some areas of fog in the south,
but not overly confident in dense fog. Therefore, did not issue an
advisory nor put anything in the HWO/graphics.

The upper ridge will slowly slide east overnight as will the sfc
high. As this occurs, a shortwave trough will dig south into the
western part of Texas through Monday. A front will slowly track
toward our region but will have a hard time entering my CWA until
later Monday into Tuesday as the upper ridge will keep a hold on the
area. By later Monday afternoon, some small rain chances may enter
the western part of my CWA but most of the holiday will remain dry.
Temperatures will again be very warm and perhaps more record highs
will be tied or broken tomorrow afternoon.
/28/

Monday night through next weekend...
Precipitation chances will continue to increase from west to east
Monday night as circulation around a cutoff low, that will enter
the Western Gulf Monday night, pulls gulf moisture into the
region. Although models have come into better agreement over the
last few runs, they still differ quite a bit on the amount of
early week QPF with the Euro remaining the most aggressive and
the NAM and GFS suggesting that the Gulf moisture will have a
tough time overcoming the dry surface airmass as the axis of
moisture pushes slowly east throughout the day on Tuesday.
However, all models agree that the best chances of heavy rainfall
in our area will be in the southwest portions Monday night into
early Tuesday before the deep low moves further south into the
Gulf and the parameters needed to produce heavier rainfall rates
decrease. The lack of these parameters, even on Monday night, has
resulted in the decision to not add any flooding/heavy rain
hazards in the HWO.

Shortwave ridging should result in dry conditions returning to
most of the region on Wednesday with the exception of areas in the
SE where some wrap around moisture associated with the low
swinging across the Gulf of Mexico could generate some light
showers. Temperatures should remain well above average through
the work week, approaching 80 degrees once again on Thursday and
Friday.

A cold front, associated with a trough crossing the Plains late
in the week, will begin to approach the region on Friday. A warm,
buoyant prefrontal air mass will exist ahead of the front. This
could result in storms forming as the front progresses through the
region. Cooler, drier air will begin to filter into the region
behind the front. Temperatures on Saturday will be the closest to
seasonal that we`ll see throughout the entire forecast period.
Long term guidance also suggest the return of rain/storm chances
early next week. /jpm3/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Following morning low clouds and fog, VFR flight categories have
resumed across all TAF sites. This will continue through the day
with no aviation concerns. Additional low clouds/fog will be
possible again tonight, especially across south MS, and should
dissipate after daybreak again. This could bring some MVFR to LIFR
flight restrictions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       56  81  59  70 /   0   5  44  64
Meridian      53  80  56  71 /   0   4  19  56
Vicksburg     56  81  60  71 /   0   9  61  61
Hattiesburg   54  81  58  73 /   0   4  28  57
Natchez       59  80  61  71 /   0  16  67  68
Greenville    55  78  58  70 /   0   8  54  50
Greenwood     56  80  58  70 /   0   6  40  55

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

JPM3/22



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