Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 281908
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
208 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...

...ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...LOCAL FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS WHILE FILTERED SUN THROUGH HIGH CLOUDS HAS KICKED TEMPS TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES IN THE SW FLOW AND RECORD HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT CLIMATE SITES AS THEY COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF DAILY RECORD
HIGHS. DIURNAL HEATING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD WILL DEVELOP
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS NE FL AND MOST OF SE
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...COMPLEX SCENARIO OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AS MOIST S/SW FLOW WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S WILL PROMOTE FOG FORMATION AFTER SUNSET. SOME LOCALIZED
DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE ATLC COASTAL
COUNTIES AS SEA FOG BANK OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAY PUSH INLAND TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS WEAK SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPS FROM THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN GRIDS AND
ZFP WITH THIS SCENARIO. OTHERWISE EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE BIG BEND REGION OF THE NORTHEAST
GOMEX AND TRACK INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF NE FL/SE GA AHEAD OF ANY
FRONTAL PCPN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO KICK OUT DENSE FOG
ADVISORY WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND ALSO THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO KEEP MORE OF TONIGHTS EVENT AS A
STRATUS DECK BUT BELIEVE AT LEAST AREAS OF DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED.
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
DECENT CONFIDENCE OF A BAND OF SHOWERS AFFECTING SE GA AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT TO INCREASE POPS INTO 50-60 RANGE...WITH
GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING MUCH S OF JAX/GNV LINE UNTIL LATE MON NIGHT.
SPREAD CHANCE POPS GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING WHILE
DECREASING POPS SE GA AND I-10 NORTHWARD IN NRN FL BEHIND COLD FRONT.
AREANTICIPATING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS WITH T-STORMS NOT EXPECTED IN
OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

PRECIP CLEARS OUT BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.
COLD FRONT RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE WITH ONLY WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND IT...SUPPORTING ONLY A SMALL COOLDOWN TUE.

.LONG TERM...WED THRU SAT...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WED SHIFTS EASTWARD
TO MID ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY AND WEAKENS. IT MAINTAINS COOLDOWN
THRU THU...BEFORE WARMUP FRI/SAT. NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS OVER WEEKEND...BRINGING LOW RAIN CHANCES TO OUR AREA...WITH
BETTER CHANCES NORTH AND WEST THAN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEGRADE RATHER QUICKLY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPO MVFR CIGS IN CUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
THEN FURTHER DEGRADATION TO LIFR VSBYS/CIGS IN FOG WITH TWO
POTENTIAL FOG SCENARIOS POSSIBLE. THE FIRST WILL BE POSSIBLE LOW
CIGS/VSBYS PUSHING IN FROM ATLC IN A WEAK SBRZ AROUND SUNSET THAT
WILL IMPACT KSSI AND DUVAL TAF SITES...BUT HAVE LOW- MOD
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT WHILE SECOND SCENARIO WILL BE ADVECTIVE
FOG PUSHING OUT OF THE BIG BEND/NORTHEAST GOMEX AFTER SUNSET AND
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IMPACTING KGNV AROUND 02Z...THEN
PUSHING NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY IMPACTING DUVAL TAF SITES IN THE
03Z-05Z TIME FRAME...THEN HELPING TO POSSIBLY ENHANCE SEA FOG
ALREADY IN THE KSSI VICINITY LATER TONIGHT. TAF FORECASTS WILL BE
HIGHLY SUBJECT TO UPDATES IN THIS DEVELOPING FOG/LOW CLOUD
SCENARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM: PATCHES OF DENSE FOG STILL LINGER ACROSS THE NE FL
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE MORNING EVENT AND MORE SEA FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE GA COASTAL WATERS VERY SOON AS MID/UPPER
60S DEWPOINTS PUSH ACROSS WATER TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES. SO WILL KEEP
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR NOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. S/SW FLOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS AND EXPECT ANOTHER
POSSIBLE ROUND OF DENSE FOG TO IMPACT THE WATERS FROM THE LAND AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY PAST
11 PM AT THIS TIME. COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE
DUE TO EASTERLY SWELLS PUSHING INTO THE LOCAL WATERS.

LONG TERM: WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...GENERATING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DUE TO LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE SATILLA RIVER AS THE FLOOD WAVE
PUSHES DOWNSTREAM. RISES CONTINUE ON THE ATLAMAHA RIVER BASIN AND
MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT NEAR BAXLEY LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 12/28...
JAX 83/1971...GNV 82/1971...AMG 79/2008...SSI 81/1971

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  72  55  66 /  30  60  50  10
SSI  60  67  58  66 /  10  30  50  20
JAX  60  77  61  71 /  10  30  30  20
SGJ  62  73  61  71 /   0  20  30  30
GNV  60  78  61  73 /  10  20  30  30
OCF  61  79  62  75 /   0  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

WOLF/HESS/WALSH






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