Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 200759
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND AGAIN
NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SUNDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF REGION TODAY...WITH A LOW
DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...WITH CONVERGENT
BANDS OF RAIN MOVING ASHORE. MOST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING...BUT A FEW STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW WRAPS UP AND MOVES NORTHEAST
THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY OVER LAND THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT...WHICH WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM THE
EXITING LOW INTO SUNDAY...WHICH COULD HELP FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
THERE.

CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT TODAY...SO
EXPECTING READINGS TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL. WITH MORE SUNSHINE
EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM...

MONDAY...NEXT MID LEVEL TROF/ENERGY/LIFT WILL SWING THROUGH THE SERN
U.S. AND ENHANCE THE LIFT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD
STORMS ACROSS NE FL WITH ONLY ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS SE GA. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S ACROSS NE FL WHERE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED...AND AROUND 90 DEGREES FROM THE FL/GA BORDER
NORTHWARD INTO SE GA.

TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROF WASHES OUT ALOFT BUT AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLC REGION AND WILL ENHANCE NELY FLOW
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ACROSS NE
FL. MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE AND PCPN WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID/UPPER 80S INLAND. EXPECT AT
LEAST BREEZY NE FLOW AT 15-20 MPH AND GUSTY ALONG THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...

WED-SAT...ONSHORE NELY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED DOWN THE EAST COAST NORTH OF
THE JAX AREA. EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH BEST
COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE NEW MOON AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL COINCIDE WITH TIMES OF HIGH TIDE AT SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO LEVELS IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S INLAND
AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
EASTERN FL COAST. THIS WILL FLOW WILL RESULT IN BANDS OF SHOWERS
MOVING ASHORE. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF WIND GUSTS.
IN GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. AS THE LOW PULLS TO
THE NORTHEAST DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS SUBSIDING AND CLOUDS DISSIPATING.

&&

.MARINE...

A FAIRLY BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AREA WATERS
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE FL WATERS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT A PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
WINDS/WAVES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE LOW
TRACKS AWAY THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AND WINDS/WAVES SUBSIDE FOR
LATER TONIGHT.

A FAIRLY BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION
THEN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOWARD MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1/2 TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL
REMAIN BELOW ANY COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  67  86  64 /  50  40  10   0
SSI  80  69  83  72 /  70  60  10  10
JAX  80  68  85  68 /  70  50  20  20
SGJ  81  70  82  71 /  70  60  20  20
GNV  82  66  84  67 /  50  50  30  30
OCF  82  68  85  68 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS





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