Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 271902

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
300 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...Surface ridge axis to the n-ne
will sink south into s GA and weaken tonight as another cold
front/trough moves by to our north. Another high will build in
from the north on Friday which will maintain breezy onshore winds
on Friday. Fog may develop late tonight and will be more likely
over inland se Ga where winds will be lighter. Abundant high
cloudiness should keep fog from becoming widespread and dense.
Temperatures will continue to be several degrees above average

Saturday and Sunday...Mean layer high pressure will continue to
dominate the local wx pattern with sfc ridge positioned over the SE
states. Ensemble guidance shows above normal 500 mb and 700 mb
heights over the weekend and early next week. Weak onshore low level
winds will become even weaker on Sunday with sfc ridge shifting a
bit more southward to be over northern FL. Warm temps (above normal)
and dry conditions thus will persist. Patchy to areas of fog are
possible in the early morning hours.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)...

Fairly strong mid level ridge will continue across the southeast
states and even into the Mid Atlc States Monday through Wednesday...
with weak mid level disturbances possible translating over the
southeast/eastern U.S. The tail end of a weak backdoor front may
move into area late Monday through Tuesday with some increase in
moisture. A re-development of onshore flow is likely with new sfc
high pressure ridge located over the northeast U.S. and then moving
offshore into the Wrn Atlantic. Temps will likely stay above average
early in the week but begin to slide a bit lower due to onshore flow
and a decrease in thicknesses. A few coastal showers will be
possible Tuesday through Thursday due to onshore flow.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions through this evening. Breezy east
winds will gust up to 20 knots until around 23z. Patchy inland
fog expected late tonight and have MVFR vsbys at GNV and VQQ 07z-


.MARINE...Onshore winds will continue through early next week as
high pressure is reinforced to the north. Advisory conditions for
the offshore Ne Fl waters south of St. Augustine mainly due to
seas around 7 feet. Exercise caution headline for the remainder
of the offshore ne Fl/se Ga coastal waters due to seas remaining

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through Friday.


Observations show river levels along the St Johns are touching action
stage mainly from Downtown Jacksonville southward. Values were near
0.5 to 1 foot above predicted so far today. Values could flirt with
minor flood stage over the next few days due to approach of new moon.


AMG  57  85  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  65  78  64  80 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  64  81  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  66  80  67  81 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  62  83  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  63  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0


AM...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 PM EDT
     Saturday night for Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach
     FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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