Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 261923
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
223 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017
.NEAR TERM /Tonight-Monday/...
Rest of this afternoon...Surface High pressure North of the region
will continue to drift slowly east into the Carolinas this
afternoon and will continue to slowly shift flow into the
Northeast with winds 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the
coast. Temps near climo values in the 60s/lower 70s.
Tonight...High pressure builds into the WRN Atlc and SEly steering
flow will develop above the surface and this will lead to the old
frontal boundary across south FL getting ready to move northward
as a warm frontal boundary. Clear skies and light winds just
after sunset will allow for temps to fall quickly with min temps
likely occurring just after midnight then likely steady or
possible slow rise towards morning as warm front lifts closer
into Central FL by sunrise. Not as cool as this morning but still
widespread 40s inland SE GA/inland NE FL and 50s elsewhere.
Monday...Southerly steering flow around WRN Atlc high pressure
will push developing warm frontal boundary northward through the
region and while models are still trying to get a handle on the
details it appears as though there will be enough moisture along
this boundary to combine with daytime heating to kick off at least
some scattered showers and possible isolated storms by the mid-
late afternoon hours. Even with skies becoming partly to mostly
cloudy by the afternoon expect enough sunshine to push max temps
to around 80/lower 80s inland in the breezy SE flow around 15 mph
with gusts close to 20-25 mph while the coastal areas/I-95 in the
onshore flow will top out in the mid/upper 70s.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY/...
A few showers and/or isolated thunderstorms will move north into
southeast Georgia Monday evening as a warm front lifts north. Dry
conditions will prevail after midnight, with mild temperatures
area wide as the flow becomes more southerly behind the front.
Tuesday and Wednesday will be warm days with temps well above
normal, especially on Wednesday when breezy southwest flow ahead
of an approaching cold front is expected to drive temps into the
mid to upper 80s across our eastern zones. Atlantic seabreeze will
move well inland on Tuesday and could support perhaps an isolated
shower/storm late Tuesday afternoon into the evening, primarily
in northeast Florida. No Atlantic seabreeze on Wednesday as the
southwest winds will be too strong. There is a slight chance that
a few showers/storms could reach the Altamaha River basin
Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, the main frontal precip will
move across southeast Georgia Wednesday night and into Thursday
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and an embedded thunderstorm or two will accompany a cold
front through northeast Florida on Thursday into Thursday evening.
Cooler temps will filter in from the north through the day on
Thursday with near normal temps along and north of the I-10
corridor, and above normal temps expected across our southern
zones due to the later arrival of cold front.
High pressure will then slowly build in from the northwest into
Saturday. This will result in dry weather and normal temperatures
Thursday night through Saturday night. The high to our north will
slip into the Atlantic by Sunday morning and the ensuing onshore
flow and building upper ridge will result in a moderation of temps
with a return to above normal levels expected inland on Sunday.
VFR conds through tonight with mainly clear skies. Models trying
to get a better handle on some possible MVFR clouds in the
2500-3000 ft range along the coast from 12-18Z Monday but SREF
currently has chances at 20% or less for CIGS < 3000 ft so for now
just have placed scattered clouds at 2500ft for SGJ and 3000ft for
CRG and VFR scattered clouds developing at other TAF sites after
15z on Monday with SE winds increasing to 10-15G20knots.
SCEC conds as North Winds at 15-20 knots becomes NE this afternoon
with seas 3-6 ft with some higher sets. Winds become E tonight
near SCEC levels then SE later on Monday as Warm Frontal boundary
lifts north through the waters. Southerly flow will continue
Tue/Wed likely at SCEC levels with a frontal boundary pushing
through on Thursday with conds still holding just below advisory
Rip Currents: Some longer period swells still impacting the coast
as the flow becomes onshore this afternoon and will continue
onshore on Monday so Moderate Risk is expected. Morning Surf
Reports placing breakers in the 3-4 ft along the NE FL coast.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 41 79 59 84 / 0 20 20 10
SSI 53 71 61 78 / 0 30 40 20
JAX 48 78 60 82 / 0 30 30 10
SGJ 54 77 64 80 / 0 30 20 20
GNV 46 83 60 85 / 0 40 20 10
OCF 48 84 60 86 / 0 40 10 10