Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 231900
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
WORKING SOUTH WHICH IS WHY CLOUDS ARE AT A MINIMUM NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS POOLING...
RESULTING IN CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH
OF THE FL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO ENHANCE CU DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER. WILL FOCUS THIS SHOWER
POTENTIAL JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS ALONG
THE ST JOHNS RIVER TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT NEEDED TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
AREA...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF ATLC AND GULF
COAST SEA BREEZES MAY HELP TRIGGER AN AFTN SHOWER OR STORM...WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO FADE IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FOR MOST
PART POPS ARE AROUND 20% BEGINNING AFTER 1 PM. FRIDAY...ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW BUT ALL MODELS SUGGEST
LOWER MEAN RH VALUES SO LOOKS TO BE DRY FCST SO POPS ARE 10% OR
LESS. TEMPS THU AND FRI WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE WARM GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S...COOLER AT THE COAST DUE ATLC SEA BREEZES BOTH DAY. SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

SAT AND SUN...OVER THE WEEKEND GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH JUST A 15-20% CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
S AND SW. INLAND MAX TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGING MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH MOVES EWD. GENERALLY ISOLD
TO SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE MON AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES TUE
THROUGH WED AS THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECASTING
AREA. ISOLD STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUE-WED BASED ON 12Z
MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A
BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT
FLORIDA TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KVQQ/KGNV.

A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND PUSH
INLAND...WHICH WILL AFFECT WIND DIRECTIONS AT COASTAL TAF SITES.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MAY LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS
AT KVQQ/KGNV.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: A MARGINAL LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY
DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS OF 2 FT AND 9-10 SECONDS. A MODERATE
RISK IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT SEVERAL
LOCAL BASINS INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE...ALTAMAHA...ST MARYS AND SANTA
FE. THE SANTA FE AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE
THE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE MARK BY LATE FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUE
RISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  57  83  61 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  76  63  74  65 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  83  63  80  61 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  79  65  76  64 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  84  61  84  60 /  20  10  30  30
OCF  85  61  85  61 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY





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