Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 190112
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
910 PM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.UPDATE...Strong instability and abundant moisture (PWAT 2.34
inches on JAX 00Z sounding) led to scattered to numerous showers and
storms in the mid to late afternoon today but has gradually faded
with loss of heating and low level forcing. Some isolated residual
weak convection continues over parts of inland southeast GA and
inland northeast FL as overall mean layer CAPEs are less than 1500
J/kg, which continues to decrease. Having said that, abundant
moisture and weak troughing across southern GA and northern FL may
spark additional isolated showers later tonight. Thus, have left in
some low POPs near 15-20% through late tonight. Min temps in the mid
70s expected with some temps upper 70s to near 80 at the coast. Mid
to high clouds will tend to thin overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR through tonight, and there is a chance of
showers and storms again on Saturday. Some indications per short
range guidance, including HRRR and NAM soundings, of some patches of
low stratus and fog over parts of northeast FL but not too confident
for going any lower than MVFR for GNV. VCTS and PROB30 groups put in
for Saturday afternoon as convection gets an early start around the
15z-17z time frame with highest chances from 17z-21z.

&&

.MARINE...No significant changes to the CWF. Winds south to
southwest around 10-15 kt and seas generally 2-4 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  94  74  94 /  20  40  20  40
SSI  79  92  79  89 /  10  30  20  40
JAX  75  93  76  92 /  10  40  40  30
SGJ  77  93  78  89 /  20  30  20  20
GNV  75  93  75  92 /  30  60  40  50
OCF  74  93  75  91 /  40  60  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Shashy/Shuler/Corless



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