Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 210329

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
929 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...Rain is gradually ending from west to east this evening,
however drizzle and fog can still be expected behind the main
shield of precip. Additional showers are still expected tomorrow
as the upper low passes through the region. This is in line with
the previous forecast and no changes are needed at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 547 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

For the 21/00Z TAF Issuance.

Surface trough/gust front has now passed all the terminals.
KLFT/KARA will see the strongest shower and storm activity as they
are closest to the gust front, until about 21/02Z. Otherwise,
southerly winds will continue above the surface through the
evening hours for the terminals over Southeast Texas and Southwest
Louisiana, and through the overnight for the terminals in South
Central Louisiana. Therefore, shower activity will continue until
the upper level trough pushes to the east and a more west to
northwest flow can develop. As the shower activity ends, low
clouds and patchy fog will form under the frontal inversion with
possible IFR/LIFR conditions after 21/09Z. Somewhat drier and more
stable conditions to move in on Tuesday, with VFR conditions
expected after 21/18Z.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017/

Local 88Ds show a broken line of heavy showers/thunderstorms
associated with a mid-level disturbance and weak sfc trof crossing
the forecast area at this time...about to push ewd into Acadiana.
Behind this line, a large area of mainly stratiform rain/embedded
moderate showers lingers back through sern TX, with a few breaks
noted over our TX zones. All in all the trend noted over the past
several days continues to look good with the line pushing out of
the area this evening, followed by several hours of mainly light
rain/showers. The chance for showers will persist into Tuesday,
albeit a slimmer shot, until the low and primary sfc cold front
gradually push through the region. Fog models are currently
advertising some restricted visibilities mainly across our TX
zones for late tonight into Tuesday morning...and patchy fog has
been inserted to account for this.

Forecast soundings indicate a much drier airmass filtering in
behind the low/front, lingering through mid-week while weak sfc
high pressure builds over from the Atlantic Sea Board. Another low
aloft will help dig a mid/upper-level trof through the Rockies
late in the week...associated sfc low crossing the Plains will
pull another front across the region during the late Friday/early
Saturday time frame. Forecast soundings currently show moisture
lacking and no POPs are currently being carried with this system.
Coolest temps during the forecast period are expected at this time
with highs Saturday likely not reaching 70 most locations...and
wake up temps Sunday morning in the 40s all but the coast and
Jefferson County.

Next significant chance of rain comes late in the period as the
next storm system crossing the wrn CONUS approaches and begins
picking up Gulf moisture.

Fog looks possible on the near shore waters mainly from Cameron
wwd late tonight and tomorrow morning...otherwise no flags are
anticipated on the coastal waters at this time.


AEX  57  70  55  75 /  80  30  20  10
LCH  58  74  57  76 /  60  30  10   0
LFT  60  73  56  75 /  90  30  20  10
BPT  58  75  57  77 /  40  20  10   0




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