Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 240455
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1155 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...TSTMS AROUND BPT AND LCH, APPROACHING LFT BUT SHOULD
MISS TO THE WEST WITH SHOWERS DISSIPATING TO THE NORTH. VCSH
EXPECTED TO LINGER AROUND BPT AND LCH FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ALL THIS REMNANTS OF AN MCS WHICH MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH.
ADDED VCTS FOR ARA AND AEX THURSDAY MAINLY DUE TO SHORT WAVE
ACTIVITY ACTING ON A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AROUND AN UPPER
LOW OVER SE LA. ALTHOUGH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE AT LFT, LCH AND BPT,
NOT SO MUCH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
MCS HAS FALLEN COMPLETELY APART THIS EVE AND THE REMAINS ARE
DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS LOOPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE LOW HAVE INCREASED IN AREA AND SIZE. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE
POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA AND LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TOWARDS THE WEST. AN MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN
S ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST AS THE EASTERN SECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO INTERFERENCE WITH
THE STORMS TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED NIGHTLY POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM INTO OUR AREA LATER
TONIGHT. SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MMS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...SHORT RANGE HRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON THE MCS MOVING
SOUTH AT 40 KNOTS INTO NW LA. EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE BAND
APPROACHING AEX AROUND 04Z (23L) WHICH AGREES NICELY WITH THE HRR.
SO INSERTED VCTS AT AEX AT 04Z WITH TEMPO MVFR AND GUSTS TO 25KTS
ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING. VCTS AT BPT 06Z. ALSO MVFR FOG AFTER
PRECIP FOR AEX LATE TNITE. EURO HINTS AT TSTMS ON THURSDAY SO
INCLUDED TEMPO FOR ALL BUT AEX AND BPT BY LATE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE
COULD BE A BIT WORKED OVER FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS IF MCS HOLDS TOGETHER.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BECOMING MORE STRETCHED AND ELONGATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AS IT IS NOT MAKING
MUCH PROGRESS TO THE WEST AS IT RUNS INTO THE STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA STILL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP
ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES FROM THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST. THUS...ONLY KICKER FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OBSERVATION SITES ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE WHAT THIS
MORNING`S UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED FOR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES...AND A FEW HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY UNTIL SUNDOWN FROM DAYTIME
HEATING AND WHATEVER DEVELOPS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER
THAT CAN ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE EVENING...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER LAND WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WHILE SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ENHANCED LAND BREEZE.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHEAR OUT ON THURSDAY IN GENERALLY THE
SAME AREA. MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS SHORT
WAVE SHOULD HELP KICK-OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...TO KEEP SCATTERED
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL PUSH EAST AND STRENGTHEN. THIS SHOULD HELP DECREASE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND TO ISOLATED AT BEST...WITH HOT SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.

A SHORT WAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND
HELP DEEPEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND PUSHING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY AS
SURFACE TROF...ALSO MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
QUESTION HOW FAR THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE AND IF ANY DRIER
AND LESS HUMID AIR CAN COME DOWN INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MID
WEEK AND THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL TREND TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

RUA

MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING FOR
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AT-LEAST AWAY FROM THE FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
REGION WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  91  76  92  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KBPT  74  92  76  93  76 /  80  40  20  20  10
KAEX  71  93  73  94  74 /  80  30  20  20  10
KLFT  74  90  76  92  76 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$






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