Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 162358
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
658 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
17/00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Daytime SHRA/TSRA have nearly dissipated, with just some sctd CU
left beneath a BKN/OVC CI shield. Conditions acrs the area are VFR
and should remain that way overnight. Some BKN MVFR cigs will be
possible at AEX around daybreak but otherwise VFR to prevail into
Thursday morning. High pres building aloft will limit convective
coverage on Thursday but a few showers or storms will be possible
with daytime heating so carried VC mention at LA TAF sites during
the aftn.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

..OPPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...

SYNOPSIS...
Radar shows just a few showers and storms remain across the
forecast area, as earlier convection and the resultant cloud cover
has some what stabilized the airmass. This trend should continue
for the remainder of the afternoon with little or no convection by
sunset.

Rua

DISCUSSION...
Surface high just east of the region will continue to bring in
southerly flow in the low levels with abundant Gulf moisture. In
the meantime, a little stronger ridging in the mid levels with
more of a westerly flow between 85H and 70H will allow some drier
continental air at that level to move into the forecast area over
the next couple of days. This will reduce the overall moisture
profile somewhat, with PWAT below 2 inches and Mean RH below 60
percent, and this in turn should reduce overall convection.

With the reduction in convection, air temperatures are expected to
be slightly higher, with max afternoon values in the mid 90s on
Thursday. The muggy air mass will remain trapped in place. Looking
at recent trends, reliable projected dew point values during max
heating should stay from 76F to 79F degrees. Combining this with
air temperatures, and the max heat index values or apparent
temperature on Thursday will range from 105F to 110F. With local
policy for heat advisory of 108F and greater, will go ahead and
issue a heat advisory for the forecast area.

Similar conditions for Friday, with a gradual increase in moisture
values in the mid levels again over the weekend into early next
week as the mid/upper level ridge weakens again. This will allow
cloud cover and convection to increase once again.

Rua

MARINE...
Surface ridge will persist across the northern Gulf of Mexico
during the period. Therefore, a light to modest onshore flow will
continue.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  95  75  94 /  20  30  10  40
LCH  79  93  79  93 /  10  20  10  20
LFT  77  94  78  93 /  10  30  10  20
BPT  78  94  78  93 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...24


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