Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 020252
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
952 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ALSO AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SOME DRIER
AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED/BROKEN LINE OF STORMS EXTEND FROM AEX DOWN TO LFT
AND ARE MOVING TOWARDS ARA. THESE WILL LAST AROUND ONE TO TWO
HOURS MORE BEFORE MOVING EAST. A BIT OF BR AROUND BPT TMRW MRNG
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE SCT040... BKN LYR AROUND 060 OVERCAST AT 200
THRU MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER W-CNTL
LA WITH A COOL FRONT TRAILING SWWD TO NEAR SABINE PASS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROUNDING IT...INCLUDING ONE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY DEPARTING THE ERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCAL
88DS SHOW THE SHOWERS/STORMS ACCOMPANYING IT NOW MOSTLY EAST OF
THE ATCHAFALAYA...WHILE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN
POPPING UP BEHIND IT MAINLY ACROSS THE LA ZONES.

THIS AFTERNOON BRINGS A CONTINUED SLIGHTLY WET FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE ERN CONUS TROF ALOFT AND THE SFC LOW/ACCOMPANYING BOUNDARY.
REGIONAL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ABOVE NORMAL PWAT
VALUES WITH THE MOISTURE MOSTLY FOUND BELOW H5. OBVIOUSLY POPS
WILL BE HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS AROUND THE PASSAGE OF
THE WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES OF THESE FEATURES A SMALL POP IS BEING CARRIED ALL
THE WAY THROUGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT. LOOKING AT THE
BRIGHT SIDE...THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH MAXES STAYING IN THE
80S THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

SOME RELIEF FROM THE POPS IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST MID-WEEK
WHEN THE RIDGING ALOFT NOTED OVER THE DESERT SW FINALLY BEGINS
PUSHING EWD IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVING ASHORE
FROM THE PACIFIC. HOWEVER THE HEAT WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO
THE REGION IN RESPONSE AS RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING ALOFT RETURN.

MARINE...
THE FLOW ON THE COASTAL WATERS LOOKS LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW/BOUNDARY MEANDER OVER THE REGION. A RETURN TO
A MORE SUMMERLIKE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
OVER THE NRN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  85  73  87  72 /  20  40  30  40  20
KBPT  73  85  73  87  75 /  20  30  30  30  20
KAEX  70  84  70  87  70 /  20  40  30  40  20
KLFT  74  86  73  86  72 /  60  50  30  50  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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