Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 081549
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
949 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Forecast looks pretty good this morning. Main update was to
increase POPs slightly across the southern zones this afternoon
and evening.

Cold front is through the area this morning and cold air advection
is ongoing and will continue through the day. Temperatures will
likely hold steady or slowly fall through the day. No changes were
made to the going hazards at this time.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

AVIATION...
Areas of rain this morning moving through southeast Texas and
southern Louisiana. Rains to be ending towards the noon hour.
Clouds to hang around through the afternoon hours. Winds will be
strong and gusty. IFR conditions becmg MVFR drg the aftn hrs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A stationary frontal boundary is noted about 40-60 miles offshore
this morning. This front, which moved through yesterday, has
already turned winds out of the north across the region this
morning. Light showers being observed on radar in advance of a
much stronger cold front that appears to be located somewhere
near the Ruston, LA area this morning. The front will slowly ooze
its way south through the morning, but there will not be a
dramatic change in temperature. Rather, daily highs will be set
sometime this morning as cold air advection will slowly cool
temperatures through the day. The surface pressure gradient
is expected to tighten behind the front which will result in
strong blustery winds by late this morning into the afternoon. A
Wind advisory has been issued for land areas and a gale warning
offshore.

Despite the forecast breezy winds and early evening cloud cover,
cold air advection is expected to be sufficient to result in
freezing temperatures across the northern half of the area. Since
it has been some time since our last freeze and most vegetation is
still alive, I opted to issue a freeze warning after collaboration
with WFO Houston. In addition to the freezing temperatures, winds
of 10-15 MPH overnight will result in wind chills of in the lower
20`s across central Louisiana and mid 20`s along the I-10
corridor.

Temperatures will be even cooler on Friday with most areas not
getting out of the 40`s. Surface high pressure settles across the
central U.S. Friday resulting in calmer winds Friday night into
Saturday. This will allow for freezing temperatures once again
with the freezing line sinking into northern parts of the coastal
parishes and counties. Freeze warnings may be necessary for these
areas.

Temperatures begin to moderate by Saturday as the surface high
scoots off to the east bringing back southerly flow in advance of
the next frontal system progged to push through the area Sunday
evening into Monday morning. This front is currently not expected
to be as strong.

Very low confidence forecast late in the period with forecast
guidance highly divergent. The GFS wants to blast a mammoth
frontal system through the area on Wednesday while the Euro shows
hints of a much weaker boundary with much higher moisture. Went
with the general model blend but modified it somewhat to keep rain
chances out of the forecast for Wednesday forward. The blend also
skews temperatures lower Wednesday and beyond in reference to the
GFS, but this will likely change...perhaps as soon as the next
forecast package.

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL LAKES
AND BAYS. WINDS MODERATE FRIDAY AND WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY ONCE
AGAIN BY SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH IS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  47  29  45  28 /  40  10   0   0
LCH  50  34  48  33 /  60  20   0   0
LFT  50  34  48  32 /  60  20   0   0
BPT  52  35  49  35 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ029-032-033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
     LAZ027>033.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ215-216.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for
     TXZ180-201-259>262.

GM...Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-
     475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...27


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