Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 220527
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1127 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING.
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE. EAST TO SE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MADE MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDS FOR CURRENT LIGHT RAIN
TRENDS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS EVENING WITH
OBSERVATIONS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. STILL
EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ONLY OTHER CONCERN IS THE HIGH TIDES TOMORROW NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS
FORECASTING TIDES TO GET ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THE PAST
TWO DAYS.

27

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...CEILINGS OF 5 TO 10K FT WILL EXIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWER. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE END OF THE PERIOD
APPROACHES WITH CEILINGS REMAINING MOSTLY VFR. SE TO S WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN
REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS EAST TX AND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL LA...WHERE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO HELD
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THIS LIFT IS FCST TO
WEAKEN TONIGHT...SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

UPSTREAM...A VIGOROUS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRAVERSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE DIGGING INTO NRN MEXICO TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF BOTH THE UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES...BUT A WEAK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL TX SUN EVE...THEN LIFT NE TWD THE ARKLATEX SUN
MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE IS FCST
TO BEGIN SURGING NWD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AMID BROAD/INCREASING ASCENT. EVENTUAL
QLCS DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN TX IS POSSIBLE...WITH A SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD TREK ACROSS LOUISIANA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PWATS ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR PLUS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS...WHICH
IN CONCERT WITH THE PROGGED LIFT...WILL YIELD EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCING CONVECTION. AREAWIDE...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL /PRIMARILY
URBAN/ NUISANCE FLOODING...DID ADD LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
FCST. SEVERE WORDING WAS ALREADY PRESENT...AND THIS WAS LEFT AS IS
GIVEN THE PROGGED SHEAR ALBEIT LOW INSTABILITY SETUP. DAMAGING
WINDS AND/OR TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY COURTESY A DRY PUNCH FROM THE WEST...THOUGH AGAIN THE
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AMID A CLEARING SKY...DEEP
MIXING...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S...THOUGH I DID NUDGE THEM A LITTLE
BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN THE WET SOILS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...WITH FROPA STILL
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH AN AMPLIFYING
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS TROF YIELDING DRY AND MILD/COOL WEATHER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

13

MARINE...
A MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY AND SEVERE WINDS. RAINS WILL
TAPER OFF SUNDAY BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE COMING LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  72  62  78  54 /  10  50  90  20  10
KBPT  59  72  63  77  53 /  10  60  90  10  10
KAEX  51  71  60  77  49 /  30  30  90  30  10
KLFT  54  73  63  79  56 /  10  30  90  50  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.