Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 281142
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
542 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
28/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE OVER THE COLDER LOW
LVL AIRMASS...RESULTING IN OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND RAIN.
CURRENTLY...THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED N OF THE TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALLER BAND STREAMING NE ACRS THE
ACADIANA AREA. IFR CIGS TO PREVAIL TODAY...WITH -RA INCREASING AS
AN UPPER TROF MOVES EAST. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF HEAVIER SHRA ARE
EXPECTED...ACCOMPANIED BY LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF FM W TO E DURING THE EVENING WITH LIFR CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL
DECREASE TO 5 KT DURING THE EVENING. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL EXIT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE. WITH THAT...THE END OF ANY
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEA FOG HAS ENDED.
THE EXTREMELY HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 1.9 INCHES...MORE THAN TWICE THE
STANDARD DEVIATION...ON THE 28/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AT
KLCH...HAS BEEN REPLACED BY PWATS ACCORDING TO GPS-MET DATA OF
BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.6 INCHES...AND THESE VALUES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DECREASE TO BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.4 INCHES BY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL LOCATED OUT OVER WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN OLD MEXICO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. UNTIL THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE OVER-
RUNNING RAINS...MAINLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE
FROM 1/3 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND COOLER AIR
MASS...WILL BE A RATHER RAW SUNDAY...PROBABLY GOOD ONE TO STAY
INSIDE AND FIX SOME GUMBO AND READ A BOOK...OR WATCH FOOTBALL OR A
MOVIE ON THE TV.

ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES...THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER WILL
BE A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM
THE PRAIRIES ALONG THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL
SIDE...EVEN IF SOME SUNSHINE DOES APPEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY STILL ADD A FILTER TO FULL SUNSHINE.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST...AND A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW FROM IT...ALONG WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE ON NEW YEARS EVE
NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MAINLY LIGHT OVER-RIDING TYPE
RAIN DURING NEW YEARS DAY.

SOME STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AS RETURN OFF THE GULF BRINGS A WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR MASS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO WORK WITH AS IT PUSHES
A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

RUA

MARINE...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT THE OUTER WATERS BETWEEN
INTRACOASTAL CITY AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...AND THE FRONT
SHOULD EXIT THIS AREA BY SUNRISE...DISPERSING ANY SEA FOG THAT
REMAINS. MODERATE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND
THIS FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS AND WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION UNTIL AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK AS A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ON DOWN
INTO THE REGION. THE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COASTAL WATERS BEGIN TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THE
HIGH...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DURING THAT TIME. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  52  42  57  42 /  90  50  10   0
KBPT  51  42  58  43 /  90  30  10   0
KAEX  49  41  54  40 /  90  50  10  10
KLFT  56  45  59  44 /  70  50  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24




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