Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 301024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
524 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Low/Mid level trof axis continues to sink SWD along the lower TX
coast this morning, while the upper low continues to spin over the
NW Gulf, albeit farther south than it was 24 hrs ago.
Consequently, convection is also further south over the Gulf
waters, just skirting across the the southern extent of the outer
marine zones.

Special 06Z KLCH RAOB continued to indicate a very moist airmass
in place, but also showed a very deep easterly flow, which will be
advecting the relatively drier air evident in the KLIX RAOB into
the region. Coupled with the weakening and/or departure of the
forcing mechanisms that have driven the extensive convection the
past few days, much less activity is expected today and the next
several days.

Flow across the CONUS is forecast to become more amplified mid to
late week, with a deep layer ridge building over the Central US
and a corresponding downstream TROF, the latter of which will
assist in lifting whatever becomes of TD Nine out across the NE
Gulf. This TROF will also send a weak CDFNT into the region on
Friday, bringing slightly elevated rain chances back into the
picture. This front is forecast to stall just offshore SAT, with
both the GFS and ECMWF then indicating a frontal wave developing
and retrograding WWD underneath a building SE CONUS ridge on SUN.
A deep and moist SE fetch around this ridge prevails to start the
new work week.

Temperatures TUE-THU will average in the low/mid 90s amid the
relatively drier air and underneath an E-W oriented ridge axis
ahead of the digging ERN CONUS TROF. Slightly cooler readings
around 90 expected FRI and beyond with the FROPA and subsequent
increase in clouds/PCPN over the weekend/early next week. Lows
will remain seasonal through the period.


A light to modest offshore flow will continue for the rest of the
week over the Northwest Gulf Coast region, between a building
ridge of surface high pressure extending from the Upper Midwest
into Southern Texas, and TD Nine which is forecast to become a
Tropical Storm and track northward across the Eastern Gulf.



AEX  94  74  95  75 /  20  10  10  10
LCH  93  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
LFT  92  76  94  77 /  20  10  20  10
BPT  93  76  95  76 /  20  10  20  10


.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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