Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 012323
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
623 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE...EXPECTED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND PUSH INLAND BEFORE SUNRISE. THEREFORE...WILL MENTION VCSH AT
KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 02/10Z TO COVER THIS. MORE CONVECTION
WILL THEN DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING INLAND BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND THE WESTERN GULF. THIS FEATURE GRUADUALLY
FILLS IN LATE THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRUADUALLY
BUILDING IN THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR OUT SO
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A MENTION OF PRECIP ON LABOR DAY AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA THANKS TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE POLAR JETSTREAK. THE RAIN LOOKS TO
LINGER LATE TNITE DUE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY. THE PATTERN HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPS...WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DEW POINTS AGAIN ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
PROGGED.

LONG TERM...KEPT LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR THE SW ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND JET ENERGY CONTINUING. LOW END RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY THRU THE EXTENDED. A DEEP WESTERN TROF AND AN
OPEN GULF DESPITE THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW LEVEL RIDGING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  89  72  93 /  30  50  20  30
LCH  76  88  74  87 /  50  60  20  40
LFT  75  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  30
BPT  76  82  76  85 /  50  70  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07



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