Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 252042
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL RADAR DEPICTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO ACADIANA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. MORE ROBUST CONVECTION NOW ADVANCING
EAST ACROSS MID TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF AND
EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA. THE AFOREMENTIONED WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST QPF CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN...WITH LATEST WPC NUMBERS
SUGGESTING 1 TO 2 INCHES COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ACADIANA WITH RAINS EXPECTED BELOW AN INCH. WILL BE
MAINTAINING ONGOING FLOOD WATCH WHICH IS ABSENT LOWER ACADIANA
THROUGH TONIGHT. REASONING IS... ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM
PREVIOUS RAINS LEAVING SATURATED GROUNDS...THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
1 TO 2 INCHES...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

ADDITIONALLY...SPC MAINTAINING A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT SEVERE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE INCOMING CONVECTION. NORTHERN
TYLER AND JASPER COUNTIES OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE CLIPPED
WITH A MORE CONCERNING ENHANCED OUTLOOK. MAIN THREAT FOR ALL WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE AND
WEAKENING OF THIS LATEST FEATURE. WILL HOWEVER BE MAINTAINING
DAILY CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A MOIST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLIES WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
AND NEAR COASTAL WATERS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ADVANCES OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN AGAIN
DIMINISH THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY EXPECTED THOUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  84  70  86 /  80  50  20  40
LCH  74  86  73  87 /  80  50  20  40
LFT  74  85  72  86 /  80  60  20  40
BPT  74  86  74  87 /  80  40  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ027>032-041-042-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23


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