Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 211137
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
637 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

..AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT FROM THE NORTHWEST
SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN A COOL FRONT AS IT TRIES TO APPROACH CEN LA
BY LATE TNITE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED FOR
THE FORMATION OF PATCHY GROUND FOG. WILL KEEP MENTION OF TEMPO IFR
VIS IN FOG AT AEX AS THE SIGNAL REMAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND SOME IFR PATCHY FOG HAD FORMED EARLIER. OTHERWISE CAVOK.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM A QUEBEC LOW THROUGH PEORIA THROUGH JOPLIN
TO AMARILLO. THE MIDWEST SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL SOUTH
..ENTERING THE PINEY HILLS-LAKES REGION AROUND NOON MONDAY...BEFORE
EXITING INTO THE LOUISIANA-UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DURING THE
MID-EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.

FURTHER SOUTH...A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM CAPE KENNEDY
THROUGH SAINT PETERSBURG TO THE MIDPOINT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
(AROUND 25N 91W).

DISCUSSION...

THE PREVIOUS EVENING SOUNDING OVER LAKE CHARLES DEPICTED A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND THE 10 THOUSAND-FOOT LEVEL. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VARIABLE WAS AROUND 1.4 INCHES (OVER ONE
STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER).

CONSEQUENTLY...ANTICYCLONE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY. THE AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAKDOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES ON MONDAY...PERMITTING THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDWEST COLD
FRONT TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS (AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) ARE POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MODEST.

MARINE...

FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

EASTERLY COMBINED (WIND AND SWELL) WAVES WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST...
WITH A PERIOD AROUND 5 SECONDS. THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING
ALMOST A FOOT ABOVE THE TIDE TABLE VALUES.

OUTLOOK...

THE TRAVELING QUEBEC FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
STATIONARY FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...EXTENDING EAST-TO-WEST ACROSS THE
MIDSECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE GULF EASTERLIES WILL TAKE ON AN UNDULAR (WAVELIKE) PATTERN ON
THE NORTHERN (OR BAROCLINIC) SIDE OF THE MERGED FRONTAL SYSTEM.
A SALIENT EASTERLY WAVE WILL TRAVEL INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO ON THURSDAY.

THE LATEST GFS MODEL KEEPS THE CONVECTIVE RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE
EASTERLY WAVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  90  72  89  66  83 /  10  10  30  20  10
KBPT  91  73  90  67  83 /  10  10  30  20  10
KAEX  91  69  85  60  82 /  10  10  30  10  10
KLFT  90  71  88  64  84 /  10  10  40  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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&&

$$







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