Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
FXUS64 KLCH 301737
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1237 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period,
however scattered storms will occur this afternoon. Brief periods
of lower vis can be expected in any shower or storm along with
wind gusts of 20kts. Convection will push inland and decay later
in the afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1009 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/
Surface analysis shows temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
across the region coupled with dewpoints in the mid to upper
70s. Visible satellite imagery shows scattered cloud cover now
beginning to develop along and south of the I-10 corridor where
surface heating has reached the convective temperature. Cloud
cover will continue to develop and extend further inland over the
next several hours. Latest guidance and NCAR ensemble guidance
continues to support convection developing along the sea breeze
this afternoon with the highest POP over the Atchafalaya basin.
Other than a few minor adjustments made to the hourly sky cover
and dewpoint fields no changes to the forecast are necessary.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/
For the 30/12Z TAF issuance.
Mostly clear skies and light winds to start the forecast. There
may be brief periods of patchy fog until 30/14Z with MVFR
conditions, but mainly VFR is expected during the morning hours.
With daytime heating, moist air mass, and weakness aloft, a few
showers and thunderstorms will develop after 30/18Z, and activity
that does develop, diminishing by 31/01Z. Will place VCTS at all
TAF sites during that period. Away from any convection, VFR
conditions will prevail.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/
Short Term...Today through Sunday
Skies were mostly clear overnight with near calm winds and
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Some patchy fog was
observed over southeast Texas and central Louisiana. A few showers
were occasionally developing over the Gulf but most of the
precipitation was focused well north of the area. At the
surface...a weak high pressure ridge will continue over the
northern Gulf. In the upper levels...the forecast area is in
between and upper trough over the Southern Plains and an
anticyclone over the Eastern Gulf. Little change in these
patterns are expected through the weekend. Given this
scenario...will continue trend of scattered diurnal convection
along seabreeze. Highest POPs will be over the east where better
PWATs are progged. At this time...plan little if any change to POP
forecast. High temperatures will reach to near 90 coast to lower
90s to mid 90s.
Long Term...Sunday night through Friday
Upper anticyclone will build over the area through the middle of the
week. While diurnal seabreeze activity is still expected...POPs will
only be in the 20-30 percent range through Tuesday. As per model
blends...will increase POPs as tropical wave is forecasted to move
into the Gulf around Thursday. Temperatures should remain near
normal through the week.
High pressure ridge will meander along the Gulf coast and northern
Gulf through the middle of next week. This will result in weak
onshore flow and low seas. Initial forecasts with approaching
tropical wave suggests only a modest increase in winds and seas late
next week with an increasing chance of rain.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 74 94 75 94 / 20 30 20 30
LCH 77 92 78 92 / 10 30 20 20
LFT 77 93 77 93 / 20 30 20 30
BPT 77 94 77 93 / 10 30 10 20