Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 252244
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
544 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across area terminals this
evening with winds becoming light and variable after sunrise. Fog
will be possible early tomorrow morning for all TAF sites except
for AEX where there will be less low level moisture.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows weak frontal boundary nearly stalled across the
coastal waters off of Southeast Texas and Southern Louisiana.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue along
the frontal boundary offshore, and expected diminish by sunset.
Had a few reports of small hail and isolated wind damage reports.
Once the thunderstorms ended and skies rapidly cleared, slightly
drier air allowed temps to reach the upper 70s to near 80 this
afternoon. Mostly clear skies expected this evening and overnight
with light to calm winds, coupled with the wet ground, should
allow for patchy fog to form after midnight, with patchy/areas of
dense fog possible by daybreak Sunday. Still a question if
dewpoints moderate enough overnight with the expected dissipation
of the frontal boundary.

Weather for Sunday looks pleasant with no precipitation expected.
The next upper level disturbance scheduled to move across the
region Monday, with the best chance of showers and thunderstorms
across Central Louisiana and north of the region. SPC only has
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms as far south as Fort Polk/
Alexandria/Marksville in Central Louisiana.

The extended forecast will continue an upper level roller coaster
ride with 2 more disturbances. For Tuesday, our region expected
to remain precip free but continued much above normal temperatures.
By Wednesday and Thursday, a larger, slower moving upper level
low will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms by
late Wednesday morning, with the best chances Wednesday night into
Thursday. Precipitation expected to move east of the area
Thursday night, with Friday looking rather pleasant with above
normal temperatures. By Saturday, the next disturbance is a little
harder to pinpoint with intensity/timing, as significant spread
exists among the long range guidance.

DML

MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon over the
20-60 nm marine zones south of the Atchafalaya River to
Intracoastal City, expected to diminish by sunset. Otherwise,
southerly flow will continue diminishing this evening and
overnight as a weak frontal boundary stalls and dissipates over
the region. Onshore flow will resume Sunday, with light to
moderate onshore flow continuing through the week. Expect winds to
strengthen Wednesday as another low pressure system approaches
from the west, with showers and thunderstorms likely on Thursday.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  56  83  65  82 /  10  10  20  50
LCH  63  81  68  81 /  10  10  20  30
LFT  65  83  68  82 /  10  10  10  30
BPT  64  81  69  81 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...26



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