Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 030450
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1150 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC OBS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH
MAINLY CIRRUS FLOWING OVERHEAD. SOME LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING BUT EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FOR THE MOST PART. HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO
FOR LIGHT FOG AT KAEX TOWARD DAYBREAK AS VISIBILITIES ARE ALREADY
SLIGHTLY DIMINISHED THERE. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF
TODAY WITH SRLY WINDS EXCEEDING 10 KNOTS BEING THE PRIMARY ISSUE
AS WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS CONVECTION AT BAY.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...EVENING LCH SOUNDING COMING IN WITH A PWAT AT A VERY
DRY 1.35 INCHES. HENCE...NO RAINS. TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE HAS NUDGED INTO THE CWA
TODAY WITH A SOMEWHAT WARMER AND DRIER LAYER NOTED FROM 850 TO
500 MB. A MODEST CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THIS
DRIER LAYER AS THE MOIST SURFACE LAYER WARMS, HOWEVER A VERY
MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SHOWERS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE WARMING TO AROUND THE 90
MARK, HOWEVER MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION IS KEEPING TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT WAS FORECAST
YESTERDAY. BEYOND TODAY THE MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE WX OVER THE CWA INTO FRI MORNING, HOWEVER A SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO NORTH LA BY LATE AFTERNOON ERODING THE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS TO
DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST TX LAKES AND CENLA AREAS.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND... THE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS ACROSS THE
THE CWA SATURDAY AND INTERACT WITH THE TYPICAL WARM AN MOIST GULF
COAST AIR MASS THAT IS IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCT TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS STORMS BY AFTERNOON. SVR WX IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS UNDERWAY. ON SUNDAY THE
SHORT WAVE WILL BE STRETCHED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, HOWEVER
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN AROUND FOR ISOLD TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS ONCE AGAIN.

NEXT WEEK A MID TO UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES DECREASING RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED FROM THE
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP
SEAS LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  75  90 /   0  20  10  50
LCH  76  91  78  90 /   0  10  10  40
LFT  75  92  76  89 /   0  10  10  40
BPT  76  92  77  90 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04


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