Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 010459
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1159 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW THE POTENTIAL NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ALREADY
DEVELOPING OVER LOWER ACADIANA...AFFECTING THE SERN TERMINALS BY
06Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FURTHER
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IMPACTING MAINLY KLCH/MAYBE
KBPT FIRST BEFORE REACHING KAEX LATER. MEANWHILE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS STILL SHOW THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IN BETTER CONFINEMENT
WITH THE LINGERING FRONT...AGAIN IMPACTING THE SERN SITES MORE
THAN THE OTHERS. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN SO
MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

UPDATE...MINOR TWEAKING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. LATEST MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ACADIANA POTENTIAL HIGHEST AREA-WIDE
AND HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THERE. DID TRIM DOWN POPS
SLIGHTLY ELSEWHERE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
LOWER CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SFC
OBS REPORTING MVFR CONDITIONS NOW STARTING TO PREVAIL. CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE LOWERING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIFR VALUES EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY. ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...LIKELY MOST
IMPACTING KLFT/KARA STARTING AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AND LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...A LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG
THE OF THE LARGER LOW. MOST OF THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE HAS EXITED THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTH LA. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS AND CONTINUE INTO LOWER ACADIANA THIS EVENING.
ALSO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED IN EAST TX AND THIS MAY
DRIFT INTO OR NEAR THE EAST TX LAKES AREA EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOIL AND FULL RIVERS, BAYOUS, AND
DITCHES THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
NEXT MCS MAY AFFECT THE AREA.

THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY ENDING
THE RAINFALL AND USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...TIDE LEVELS ARE FALLING ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH TIDES BACK TO AROUND 3 FEET MLLW AT HIGH TIDE MID
DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. A SLOW DECREASE IN TIDES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH A BETTER FALL AFTER THE FRONT
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  82  68  77 /  30  60  50  80
LCH  71  81  71  79 /  40  60  50  80
LFT  71  82  74  80 /  60  70  40  80
BPT  70  83  71  80 /  30  60  60  80

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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