Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 140540
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1140 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 14/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE. MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY AT KBPT WILL CONTINUE...WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO KLCH SUNDAY MORNING INTO REMAINDER
TAF SITES LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT MAY PROVIDE FOR
A FEW STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS OFF THE GULF INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SO
WILL PLACE VCSH FOR KBPT AFTER 14/18Z. ALSO...BY SUNDAY EVENING
(AFTER 15/00Z) DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO IFR LEVELS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

UPDATE...
ONLY FORECAST ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. PATCHY
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO RAISE MIN TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IF SE WINDS
STAY AT 5 KNOTS OR GREATER. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGING SWD WHICH IS ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY/SFC OBS SHOW
STRATOCU NOW SHROUDING MUCH OF SERN TX/SWRN LA. REGIONAL 88DS ARE
PPINE.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES
PUSHING EWD OVER THE MIDWEST...ALLOWING STRATOCU SHIELD TO KEEP
SPREADING EWD. NOT TOO SURE ABOUT FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT GIVEN LACK
OF GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...
ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED IN NORMAL TROUBLE AREAS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS ALSO LOOK TRICKY...WITH MINS LIKELY CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT THEN INCHING UPWARD AS WARMER GULF AIR SPREADS EWD.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
HELP SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN
WILL PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
THROUGH THE COLUMN BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOW BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE. PRECIP
WILL END FROM W-E ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR QUICKLY
FILTERS IN BEHIND IT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO LATE TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT
PUSHES A SECONDARY FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. RETURN FLOW BEFORE THIS
FRONT PASSES LOOKS BRIEF AT BEST...THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO IMPROVE STARTING
THURSDAY AS SRLY FLOW DEVELOPS...AND NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY PROGGED TO
SWING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

MARINE...
AFTER TODAY NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  43  66  53  72 /   0  20  40  60
LCH  51  68  55  73 /   0  20  30  50
LFT  47  68  57  73 /   0  20  40  60
BPT  53  72  56  74 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.