Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 232324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
624 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 548 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Some convective showers have developed across the region this
afternoon. With these, we have received a few reports of sleet
across the region. Did a quick update to add sleet into the forecast
through the evening hours.


.Short Term...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Gusty west winds will continue through this evening with gusts in
the 20-30 mph range.  Expect wind gusts to gradually decline tonight
as the sfc pressure gradient relaxes.

Tonight we are still expecting some light rain showers changing over
to a mix of rain/snow and even some very light snow showers/flurries
as a vort max pushes through the Ohio Valley on the back side of the
strong NE U.S. low pressure system. Any precipitation is expected to
be very light and sparse in nature.  With warm ground temps in
place, not expecting any impacts to travel.  However, low temps
tonight will dip into the upper 20s.

For Wednesday expect continued cloudiness with lingering
sprinkles/flurries.  However, low level moisture will thin late in
the day with skies becoming partly cloudy Wed night. Highs Wed will
be in the upper 30s/lower 40s with lows Wed night in the 20s.

.Long Term...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Thursday - Friday...

Dry weather is expected Thu/Fri with sfc high pressure in place and
an upper level ridge moving through.  Expect mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies both days with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

Saturday - Tuesday...

The next rain chances will come this weekend as a wave of low
pressure brings plentiful moisture northeast along a slow moving sfc
front over the Ohio Valley.  The 12Z GFS/ECMWF are in agreement with
a weaker, faster moving system however the 12Z Canadian still holds
on to the stronger, slower version. The official forecast is a blend
of model solutions resulting in a decent compromise for now although
it does seem to lean toward the slower side of guidance.  Mainly all
rain is expected from this weather system beginning Fri night and
continuing through at least early Sun.  If the system lingers and a
def band forms on the back side, we could see a mix of precipitation
at the end on Sun night.

Temperatures this weekend will be mild on Sat with highs in the 50s.
Sunday temps will be hold in the 40s for most as a cold front pushes
through the region.

Monday/Tuesday of next week look dry so far with partly cloudy skies
and temps around normal.


.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 623 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

A widespread area of stratus will persist through much of the TAF
period. A couple of sites have risen to just above the MVFR
threshold. These ceiling are expected to lower back down to MVFR
within the next hour or two. As winds relax overnight, ceilings will
lower a bit more. The latest guidance suggests that SDF, LEX, and
HNB will drop below fuel alternate late tonight and ceilings will
stay in that range through much of the morning tomorrow. By late
tomorrow afternoon, there should be some improvement in cigs. Winds
through the period will generally be out of the west.




Short Term...AMS
Long Term...AMS
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