Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 291048

648 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Seeing a few light returns just north of our IN counties. These are
developing on the north edge of a theta-e ridge currently over KHNB.
Latest RUC keeps this going on for a few more hours before the
frontal lift dominates the rest of the morning.  Added in some
isolated showers over the west this morning before switching over to
storms this afternoon over the northeast. Rest of forecast pretty
much on track.

Climate Note: BWG received 1.16 inches of rain, bringing their
monthly total to 9.26". This total is the second wettest August on
record for that station. An additional 0.08" over the next 3 days
will tie the record, set back in 1926.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

Those storms should exit to the northeast this evening before
another round comes in from the west late tonight. This action will
be as a low-level jet aids in development over the Bootheel region
that will shift eastward toward daybreak. Precipitable water values
will climb to near 2 inches during the day. The main focus for
heavier storms will be along another front to our northwest, but any
heating over our region should be able to produce scattered storms.
The main problem with these storms will be the torrential rainfall,
given the high atmospheric moisture. Storm motion vectors indicate
enough motion that we should be able to avoid flash flooding, but
areas that receive multiple rounds of storms could see some minor
flooding, especially in poor drainage areas.

Temperatures will continue above normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Unsettled Weather Through the Holiday Weekend and into Next Week...

Multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorms are expected through the
long term with storms likely for a portion of the holiday weekend. A
weakening upper level trough will cross the upper Midwest Saturday
and move into the Great Lakes region by Sunday morning. Another
vortmax will track northeast through the upper level flow and into
the Lower Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday. At the surface
southerly flow will remain in place with high pressure centered off
the east coast.

The best chance for showers and storms during the long term will be
right at the beginning on Saturday night and Sunday as the upper
level disturbances move through the area. Wind fields are not overly
impressive, but a few strong storms will be possible with gusty
winds. However, soundings do reveal a very saturated atmosphere with
PWAT values rising to over 2 inches. Long skinny CAPE is also
suggestive of very heavy rain. Storms should be moving somewhat
quicker than previous episodes of heavy rain we have seen this
month. However, given torrential rainfall potential from storms, if
there is any training some minor flooding issues will be possible.
This would particularly be a concern in urban areas.

Another vortmax will set off another round of showers and storms
Monday afternoon. With drier air filtering in at mid levels PWATs
will drop Monday and heavy rainfall should be less of a concern. By
Tuesday a frontal boundary will drop south towards the area from the
north. This boundary looks to get hung up north of the forecast
area, though the models do have some differences in the details
towards the end of the forecast period. Regardless, scattered
showers and storms will be possible through Thursday along and south
of this front.

Temperatures for the most part will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
The exception will be Sunday. With all the clouds and precipitation
in the area temperatures will top out in the lower to mid 80s. Lows
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

KBWG had a few clouds go over the last couple of hours, which
generally has kept them in the MVFR range for vsby. Could still get
an hour or two of IFR conditions down there before going VFR the
rest of the day. May see some light showers west of KSDF by late
morning. The best chance for a storm there would be in the mid
afternoon, but chance is still low enough to keep out of TAFs at
this point. Better chance continues to be at KLEX, as a front moves
north across the region and combines with daytime heating to produce
scattered storms.




Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
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