Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 201030

630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.


.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The region will be situated between high and low pressure today with
a cold front moving through tomorrow. Winds today will be out of the
south to south-southwest and will be in the 9-12 knot range from mid
morning through the afternoon. Winds will relax around sunset
tonight but will pick up early tomorrow morning as the cold front
nears. Isolated showers may develop but coverage will be low and should
not have any impact on terminals, so will not mention it in the
TAFs. There will be a better chance for some showers at SDF around
12Z tomorrow. Scattered cu is expected to develop across the region




Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
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