Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 301859
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SAGGING BACK FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO OUR REGION. A SECOND SOURCE OF MOISTURE IS COMING FROM A
WEAK UPPER LOW SITTING OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. MEANWHILE, THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE UNDER VARIABLE CLOUDINESS
AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION, AND EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON (30-40%). MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, WILL INCLUDE CHANCES
FOR THUNDER WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, ALONG WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK HEATING AND THE
LACK OF ANY OTHER NOTICEABLE TRIGGER. WILL KEEP A VERY SMALL CHANCE
IN OVERNIGHT, BUT OVERALL EXPECT THINGS TO BE MOSTLY DRY. IN FACT,
ENOUGH CLEARING MAY OCCUR TO CREATE SOME FOG CONCERNS TOWARD DAWN.
WON`T BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SKY COVER. LOOK FOR LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

WILL INCLUDE JUST AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ON MONDAY
AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA AND THE WEAK UPPER DISTURANCE LIFTS
OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES TO OUR EAST. LOOK FOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE MID 80S, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 80S
UNDER LESS SKY COVER.

UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S IN MOST SPOTS, WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICAL WARM SPOTS AROUND
70.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS TRENDING DRIER AND HOTTER. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS LOOKING MORE DOMINANT WITH A WEAKNESS REMAINING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WOULD INDICATE MOSTLY A
PERSISTENCE FORECAST DAY TO DAY. GIVEN WEAK FLOW FIELDS AND THAT
RIDGE ALOFT...EXPECT COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST ON
ANY GIVEN DAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FORECAST HIGHS GO A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN WITH THIS PACKAGE...WHICH IS ABOVE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE TAF SITES CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED IN A MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF
TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES. ONE DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, MEANWHILE THE SECOND IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH OUT OF
THE GULF COAST STATES. EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE
LACK OF A STRONG TRIGGERING MECHANISM SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ANY COVERAGE SHOULD DIMNISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SLACKENING
WINDS AND VARIABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT THAT SOME FOG CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TOWARD DAWN, WITH BWG/LEX INTO THE
MVFR RANGE. LIMITING FACTOR TO GO LOWER WILL BE CLOUD COVER
UNCERTAINTY. WILL KEEP SDF AROUND THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD AROUND
DAWN. OTHERWISE, EXPECT STEADY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TOMORROW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........BJS
LONG TERM.........RJS
AVIATION..........BJS


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