Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KLOX 201159
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
359 AM PST Mon Feb 20 2017

...Aviation discussion updated...

.SYNOPSIS...

A series of storm systems will bring some rain and cool weather
through Wednesday. The highest rainfall totals will be north of
Point Conception. Drier weather is expected late in the week.
Another storm is possible next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

Moist SW flow continues to pummel California from Monterey Bay
northward. Further south...over our area...there is enough
moisture and weak dynamics to bring periods of rain to the area
through the day. The best chance of and greatest amounts of rain
will occur north of Pt Conception and before noon. Still rainfall
will not be that great up to three quarters of an inch North of
Pt Conception (with the usual exception for double that amount in
the far NW tip of SLO county) and a third maybe a half inch of
rain south of Pt Conception. SLO and western SBA county will see
advisory level southerly winds generated by a good sfc gradient
off of the Central Coast.

A little trof or front embedded in the WSW flow will bring an
uptick of rain to the area (esp SLO and SBA counties) later
tonight. The rain will continue Tuesday morning but then will
taper off during the afternoon.

Although the WSW flow aloft will continue on Wednesday the
moisture will have wrung itself out and skies will start to
clear. The only chc of rain (or snow) will be across the north
slopes as low level north to south sets up. The low level north
flow will be strong enough to bring gusty winds through the N/S
passages.

Below normal temps will continue all three days. Max temps across
the coasts and vlys will remain mired in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)

A little inside slider will move down the state line Wednesday
night. It will have little effect on the weather in terms of rain
but it will serve to reinforce the north flow and it looks like
most of the mtns and some areas with N.S oriented canyons will see
advisory level wind gusts. It will also bring more cool air to the
region and its possible that Thursday will be the coolest of the
next 7.

The most minimal of all ridges slides into the area Friday. It
will be dry and there will be a slight nudge up in the temps.
There should be a decent amount of sunshine although SLO county
may see some increase in the clouds during the afternoon.

Both the GFS and the EC bring some energy to the area over next
weekend. The EC is drier and less energetic that the GFS. Still
with the wet GFS have to keep pops going through the weekend with
the better chc occuring north of Point Conception. Despite being
wetter than the EC the GFS storm is no barn burner.

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z.

At 08Z at KLAX... There was no notable inversion.

Overall... Moderate confidence in the current TAFs. The reduced
confidence is due to the variable CIGs and VSBYs expected with
the passing storm. Conditions will generally be IFR/MVFR through
the forecast period with occasional LIFR conditions especially after
the front and near daybreak. There will be periods of mostly
light but occasionally moderate rain as well as gusty southerly
winds across much of SLO and SBA Counties ahead of and with the
frontal passage.

KLAX... Moderate confidence in the current TAF. The reduced
confidence is due to the variable CIGs and VSBYs expected with the
passing storm. Conditions will generally be IFR/MVFR through
the forecast period with occasional LIFR conditions especially after
the front and near daybreak. There will be periods of mostly
light but occasionally moderate rain. Winds will be east between
8 kt and 10 kt through 19z with a twenty five percent chance that
east winds will exceed 12 knots. There is a forty percent chance
that they will continue past 01z.

KBUR... Moderate confidence in the current TAF. The reduced
confidence is due to the variable CIGs and VSBYs expected with the
passing storm. Conditions will generally be IFR/MVFR through
the forecast period with occasional LIFR conditions especially after
the front and near daybreak. There will be periods of mostly
light but occasionally moderate rain.

&&

.MARINE...20/230 AM.

Southerly winds will increase today ahead of an approaching cold
front.  Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds across the
northern waters will likely become gale force midday through this
evening. SCA level winds may also affect the western portion of
the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening.

Winds will diminish to below advisory levels by Tuesday morning
but then increase again overnight Tuesday into Wednesday and will
likely reach SCA levels Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST Tuesday for zones
      34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      34-35-37-51-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST this afternoon
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from this afternoon through this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST this morning
      for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from 10 AM PST this morning through this
      evening for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(WED-SUN)
Light to moderate rain with gusty winds are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday which will create hazardous roadway conditions. More
rain and wind is possible on Saturday.

&&
$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Kj
MARINE...Kj
SYNOPSIS...Kaplan

weather.gov/losangeles


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.