Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KLOX 061800
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
958 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY WITH FAIR
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A COOLING TREND
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY AND
BRIEFLY TURN ONSHORE RESULTING IN SOME COOLING, MAINLY FOR COASTAL
AREAS. UNTIL THEN LOOK FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, POSSIBLY CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS IN SOME AREAS. WINDS THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS EXCEPT FOR A ONE OR TWO
ISOLATED SPOTS WHERE THEY ARE JUST BARELY MEETING CRITERIA SO WILL
GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE ADVISORY. STILL, IT WILL BE BREEZY IN SPOTS
THROUGH SATURDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

A SLIGHT COOL DOWN LOOKS MORE LIKELY FOR MONDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BRUSHES THE AREA...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE VERY
WARM. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE VERY SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD REBOUND INTO TUESDAY AND WARM THE AIR MASS ONCE AGAIN.

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MID-TO-LATE NEXT
WEEK. AS TYPICALLY WITH MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STRUGGLING TO HANDLE THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD. GFS SOLUTIONS TAKE A DRY STANCE IN
KILLING A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS ON THE DOOR STEP OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE ECMWF AND GEM
SOLUTIONS SEEMS MORE INLINE WITH KEEPING A RATHER MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE FOR THE REGION. GEM SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE MOISTURE...AND KEEP A MOIST PATTERN LINGERING INTO THE
WEEKEND. NAEFS ANOMALIES INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALMOST
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. WHILE IT IS BECOMING MORE
APPARENT THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA...HOW FAR SOUTH THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAKE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN. POPS HAVE BEEN TRENDED HIGHER FOR AREAS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION...BUT REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION. IF THERE IS A POSITIVE TO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH TIMING ARE DISAPPEARING.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTHERN BAJA WILL SHIFT EAST
WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHIFTS
SOUTH. MID/UPPER LEVEL MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH
BY 07/19Z OVER THE AREA. MIXED WEAK ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH 07/03Z AND AFTER 07/18Z OTHERWISE WEAK TO MODERATE
OFFSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN 07/03-07/17Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1710Z IS NONE.

KLAX...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
THERE IS A CHANCE LLWS THROUGH 06/20Z.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...06/900 AM...

THERE IS A CHANCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEAST
WINDS FROM PORT HUENEME TO PACIFIC PALISADES AND OUT TO THE NORTHERN
CHANNEL ISLANDS WILL EXIST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE IS
HIGHER SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS REDEVELOP. OTHERWISE THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE SCA CONDITIONS FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT SAL
OUT 10-60 NM AND FROM POINT SAL TO SAN MIGUEL ISLAND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/HALL
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...HALL

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES













USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.