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FXUS64 KLUB 141205
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
705 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE THREAT OF TSRA INCREASES BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A STRONGER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER NEAR KCDS THAN KLBB...SO
INSERTED A VCSH MENTION AT 19Z WITH TEMPO -TSRA AND MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM 20-00Z. LEFT VICINITY MENTION OUT OF THE KLBB
TAF...WITH TEMPO -TSRA AND MVFR CRITERIA FROM 23-03Z. KEPT VCSH
MENTION IN FOR BOTH SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...AS NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR THE 12 KNOT THRESHOLD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED
ON A GUTHRIE TO DICKENS TO LITTLEFIELD TO MULESHOE LINE AS OF 345
AM...WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ITS WAKE...MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. MAY SEE THIS DEVELOP FURTHER ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING AS
THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LOW DIVES OUT OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...SUBSEQUENTLY SENDING THE AFOREMENTIONED
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD WITH PERHAPS SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS
AS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW EDGES
CLOSER.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ROUND TWO OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS...IN VICINITY OF THE
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
REACHED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON AS THE MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID-UPPER 90S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT IN A PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
PRECISE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AS TO TEMPERATURES
WARMING QUITE THIS MUCH...BUT H85 TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES NEAR
THOSE SEEN ON SUNDAY SUGGEST BEING IN THE SAME BALLPARK.

THE MOST EXTENSIVE ROUND OF STORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS THE MAIN FRONTAL PUSH TAKES PLACE OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS
WILL PROVIDE FOR MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS STEERING FLOW ALOFT
VERY GRADUALLY BACKS AND INCREASES EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN STRENGTH. THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT MUCH WILL BE LEFT TO BE DESIRED
DYNAMICALLY. ALONG WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHOULD ALSO SEE STORMS GENERATED ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
ROCKIES IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION. COULD SEE
SOME GUSTY WINDS EARLY ON FROM THIS ACTIVITY WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER BEFORE STORMS BECOME ROOTED ATOP A DECOUPLING
BOUNDARY LAYER.

LONG TERM...
THE CURRENT FROPA AND RAIN FORECAST CONTINUES TO MOVE ON AS PLANNED.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRING
IN WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WHILE SMALL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH ALL THE WHILE BEING IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SITS ALONG OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES WITH THE
HIGHEST DAYTIME CHANCES EXISTING THERE. A LARGER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
ALSO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. WHEN THIS LIFT MOVES OVERHEAD IT WILL
AID FRONTOGENETIC FORCING TO GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAIN. FOR
THIS I HAVE INCLUDED LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FA. SOME ELEVATED
CAPE WILL BE PRESENT WHICH WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS THAT SEE RAIN HAVE THE STRONG POSSIBILITY OF
THE RAIN BEING HEAVY AS PWATS ARE CONTINUING TO BE PROGGED AT 1.5
INCHES AND HIGHER. THIS MAY CAUSE A FEW HEADACHES WITH LOCALIZED
STREET FLOODING...MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS. TEMPS WILL STAY WARM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS IT IS CLOSE DUE TO SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY WARM TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S...BEHIND THE FRONT. I HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND KEPT HIGHS
FOR THURSDAY MAINLY UNCHANGED AS A COMBO OF RAIN COOLED
AIR...OVERCAST SKIES...AND CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN. THE
STRENGTH OF THE FRONT IS FAIRLY EVIDENT AS SURFACE OBS FOR 09Z SHOW
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ALONG THE CA/US BORDER. TEMPS ALONG
THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOW A 10 PLUS DEGREE DIFFERENCE
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH OPENS THE DOOR
FOR A SLIGHT POP MENTION FOR CONVECTION PROPAGATING FROM THE
ROCKIES. TEMPS WILL WARM GRADUALLY INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL A MONSTER
OF A RIDGE NESTLES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. AS OF NOW MODELS ARE
SHOWING POSSIBLE 500 HEIGHTS AT OR NEAR 600 DM. IF YOU LOOK UP HOT IN
A METEOROLOGY TODAY BOOK THIS IS WHAT IT WOULD SHOW AS AN EXAMPLE.
AS SUCH I HAVE RAISED TEMPS QUITE A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        87  63  80  62  88 /  30  60  50  60  50
TULIA         91  65  80  64  86 /  30  60  50  70  60
PLAINVIEW     91  65  81  65  87 /  30  50  50  70  50
LEVELLAND     92  66  85  66  92 /  20  40  40  60  40
LUBBOCK       93  68  84  67  90 /  20  50  40  60  40
DENVER CITY   92  68  87  67  95 /  20  30  40  50  30
BROWNFIELD    93  67  87  67  94 /  20  40  40  50  40
CHILDRESS     95  68  85  66  85 /  30  60  50  70  60
SPUR          94  67  86  66  91 /  30  50  40  60  40
ASPERMONT     98  73  88  69  93 /  20  40  40  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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