Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 310023
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
723 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected during the
first few hours to the east of an area about 50 SM east of KLBB
and KPVW and south of an area about 50 SM south of KCDS. These
showers and thunderstorms will propagate slowly south and are
expected to diminish before next TAF issuance. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at KLBB, KCDS and KPVW through the
forecast period. JH.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
A few showers and storms were developing as of 20Z across the far
southeast Panhandle and Rolling Plains, possibly a result of remnant
weak mcv from overnight convection that affected roughly the same
part of the forecast area. Do not have a good feel for how these
will play out, but with MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 range, there will
probably be enough instability to maintain isolated development
through 00Z or so.

Otherwise, can`t rule out isolated shower or thunderstorm
development elsewhere as well late this afternoon and early evening,
but expect much less coverage than Frida night as heights progged to
slowly build overhead through Sunday and mid level flow less
conducive for advection of showers/storms off the higher terrain to
the northwest. Outside of the isolated convective activity this
afternoon/evening, typical dog days of summer will continue with
mainly clear skies and high temperatures Sunday ranging from the mid
90s on the Caprock to around 100 on the Rolling Plains and across
the far southeast Panhandle. JW

LONG TERM...
Pops taper down further late Sunday into early next week as upper
heights rise with high centers across the TX/LA Gulf coast and near
the 4 Corners. Weakness in ridge across the central and southern
Plains provides a glimmer of hope...but monsoon convection likely to
remain west of the forecast area. Little upper support and marginal
instability will keep coverage to a minimum but SW Panhandle appears
to have slightly better chance of thunderstorms and have kept 20
pcters in along the NM border Mon and Tue. Non mention pops most of
the rest of the week until Friday when slight chance creeps back in
with the blended solutions. With upper high firmly in place...not
much movement in temps...with mid to upper 90s on the Caprock and
100+ in the SE Panhandle and Rolling Plains. Breezy next few days in
late morning through afternoon with decent surface pressure gradient
between lee side trof/low in SE Colorado and surface high in the
Gulf. One wrinkle to the forecast is strong tropical wave east of
the Lesser Antilles which GFS brings near the Bay of Campeche in
Friday/Saturday time frame. Mostly beyond this forecast but this
system...should it develop...could bring an increase in moisture our
way in about 8-9 days. Will be interesting to watch. James
&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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