Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 050832
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...
HOPE CONTINUES TO FADE FOR RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM. MOISTURE
FROM T.S. KEVIN IS STILL EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HOWEVER IT
IS DECIDEDLY MUCH FURTHER WEST THIS EVENING INTO MOSTLY ARIZONA AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS KEEP VORT MAX RIDING A SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL
NM THROUGH COLORADO WHICH IS WHERE THE PRECIP IS PROJECTED TO STAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER CU FIELD ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY DRY. THE JET RIDGE WILL STEEPEN
ONCE AGAIN THIS PERIOD...THOUGH IT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A MUCH
MORE POSITIVE TILT HINTING THAT IT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN IN THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. STILL...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO ONCE AGAIN BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
SO...WITH THAT IN MIND...IF ANYONE IS PLANNING ON SPENDING LONG
PERIODS OF TIME OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON WEARING DARK COLORS...SUCH AS
RED AND BLACK...THEY SHOULD PLAN TO WEAR PLENTY OF SUNSCREEN AND
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER!

.LONG TERM...
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL FLATTEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW EJECTS INTO THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND WANDERS A BIT THROUGH MID WEEK. THE RESULT IS NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
TRANSLATING EASTWARD IN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE A
SERIES OF FRONTS FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH. THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVES APPROACH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH DIVERGENCE IN
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. A SHARP INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EVIDENT ON TUESDAY AS MONSOON FLOW DRIFTS OVER THE REGION.

FROM A SENSIBLE WX PERSPECTIVE...THINGS LOOK TO STAY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY THOUGH CONVECTION MAY START TO IMPINGE ON OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES MONDAY EVENING AS FIRST IN SERIES OF FRONTS CREEPS INTO THE
NRN TX PANHANDLE.  FRONT...LIKELY WITH THE AID OF CONVECTIVE
PROCESSES...LOOKS TO SAG SOUTHWARD SLOWLY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE.  NEXT FRONTAL PUSH MAY COME THURSDAY THOUGH
COOLEST AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...THOUGH POPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED.  THE BEST FRONTAL SURGE OF ALL COMES IN ON
FRIDAY AND BRINGS MORE OF AN EARLY FALL-LIKE FEEL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  64  92  64 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         92  64  93  64 /  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     92  64  93  65 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     92  64  93  62 /  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       93  66  94  66 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   92  64  92  64 /  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    92  65  94  64 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     97  71  98  71 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          95  67  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     97  72  98  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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