Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 031120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED NORTHWEST OF BOTH
KLBB AND KPVW...BUT WITH A MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY NOT AFFECTING EITHER
TERMINAL. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR -TSRA TO MOVE EAST FROM EAST NEW
MEXICO TO ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT HOW FAR
EAST IS THE QUESTION. HOWEVER BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...-TSRA
SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD AFFECT KCDS AND
KPVW...BUT WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH TO AFFECT
KLBB IS A BIT QUESTIONABLE. HAVE ELECTED TO INSERT A PROB30 FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY AT KCDS AND KPVW AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL OF
COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...SCT VFR DECKS WILL BECOME
BKN/OVC THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND UA TROUGHINESS NOTED
ACROSS THE MID-WEST...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT /THAT
AIDED IN PROVIDING ADEQUATE INSTABILITY/ PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH HAS SAGGED SWRD TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY WANED IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...IT IS NO
WONDER RATHER LIGHT ECHOES WERE BRIEFLY SEEN THERE EARLIER THIS
MORNING...BUT LACKING OF ANY FORCING AND INSTABILITY MADE IT HARD-
PRESSED TO BE MAINTAINED. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS CONVECTION AS IT SHOWS STORMS FILLING IN ACROSS THE
SW TX PANHANDLE AND ERN NM...WHILST DRIFTING SWRD TO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS MORNING AND PUSHING SWWRD TO ACROSS
ERN NM. FURTHERMORE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS IS BEING
DEPICTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH TIME PER THE HRRR. THE FACT
THAT THE PRECIP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS INDEED ALMOST WANED
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVING POPPED UP ACROSS THE SW TX
PANHANDLE AND HAS DRIFTED TO PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND NWRN SOUTH
PLAINS...INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE HRRR/S DEPICTION OF THIS
ACTIVITY. TTU MESONET SITES REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN AND NWRN ZONES.

LATER TODAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NRN ZONES IS
EXPECTED TO WASH OUT BY LATE MORNING...THUS VEERING TO A S-SERLY SFC
FLOW BY THE AFTN. HINTS OF STORMS MAKING IT TO ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES
THIS AFTN/EVENING COURTESY OF THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE MAIN SHOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THIS EVENING
THRU TONIGHT...THANKS TO EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE UA RIDGE...HENCE AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS...AND
THEREFORE BEING THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO GENERATE STORMS ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SWRD TO ACROSS THE CWA DURING
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
1.0-2.0 KJ/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE WILL EXIST MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND 0-6 KM OF BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO
AOA 30 KTS. THIS RAISES CONCERNS FOR A FEW STORMS HAVING THE
CAPABILITY OF BECOMING SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED AND PERHAPS APPROACH
STRONG LEVELS.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMS /UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S/
FOLLOWED BY A MILD NIGHT /LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NW SOUTH
PLAINS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. /29

LONG TERM...
LATEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR WEST EDGES BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SATURDAY THE
FOURTH STILL LOOKS LIKE FAIRLY QUIET. THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CLEAN WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE PUMPED
UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT A FEW
STORMS WILL STILL EDGE CLOSE TO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE APPEARS POISED TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A WELL-DEFINED
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND CANADA PAIRS WITH A WEAK IMPULSE
TOPPING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO STEER SOUTHWARD FROM THE PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM MENTION A LITTLE HIGHER
WITH OUR CONFIDENCE GAINING FROM SOLUTION CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...THOUGH AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WE ALSO HAVE
CONCERNS WITH MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THE FRONT CERTAINLY IS AN
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IN FAVOR OF PRECIPITATION. THE WAVE SHOULD
CLEAR EAST LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALSO WEAKENING. BUT WE STILL APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLOW RIGHT ON THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER NOW ON WEDNESDAY WHILE A LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVE
COULD DRAW HIGHER COVERAGE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED THAT FAR OUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  64  87  66 /  30  40  10  10
TULIA         88  65  88  68 /  30  40  10  10
PLAINVIEW     88  66  88  68 /  30  30  10  10
LEVELLAND     89  67  89  67 /  20  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       90  68  90  69 /  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   89  66  88  67 /  20  20  10  20
BROWNFIELD    90  67  89  68 /  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     91  71  93  73 /  30  30  20  10
SPUR          91  70  90  70 /  30  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     92  72  93  73 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/29/05


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