Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 041454
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1054 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT INTO NORTH
CAROLINA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD SUNDAY AND
MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 14Z...ONE WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA.
THE LOW OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL CONTINUE TO FILL WHILE THE LOW IN
THE ATLANTIC WILL HEAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF STRATIFORM RAIN HAS NOW PASSED THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE OVERCAST TO THE WEST
AND THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HAS TO COME THROUGH ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
CREATE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN GARDEN-VARIETY.
HIGHS WILL BE COOL FOR JULY 4TH...MOSTLY 70S WITH PERHAPS A FEW
PLACES ESPECIALLY SOUTH BREAKING 80.

TONIGHT...PRECIP CLEARS AS DO THE CLOUDS. FOG DEVELOPS IN TYPICAL
PIEDMONT AND VALLEY LOCATIONS. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S...UPR 60S
URBAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER PATCHY AM FOG BREAKS...SUNNY WITH A
LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW AND MAX TEMPS MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY BEGIN TO RETURN NWD IN DEEP LAYERED SRLY FLOW WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SUN NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS DUE TO HIGH PWATS AOA 2.0 INCHES AND SINCE RAINS WILL
BE NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

DRIER SW FLOW ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA LATE TUE AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. LEE-SIDE TROFS APPEAR THE ONLY
MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...WARMER AND HUMID WITH
THE RISK OF ISOLD-SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY.
FRONTS APPEAR TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SO
CONSIDERABLY WARMER NEXT WEEK THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STEADIEST RAIN MOVING OUT AT THIS TIME BUT LOW CLOUDS LINGER.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE. AFTER IMPROVING
AGAIN THIS EVENING...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT INLAND SITES
ESPECIALLY CHO AND MRB. BACK TO VFR ALL TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AFTER
FOG BURNS OFF. WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINING BELOW 10
KNOTS...WITH NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMING MORE VARIABLE SUNDAY.

IFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KCHO LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON IN
RAIN IMPROVING TO MVFR MON AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AGAIN MON NIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT
KBWI AND KMTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT...MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL OF SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS AS LOW MOVES EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TUE-TUE NIGHT DUE TO CHANNELING SRLY FLOW. THIS MAY
REQUIRE SCA.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR MDZ011-014.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ532-540>542.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ535-538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ533-
     534-537-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/LFR
NEAR TERM...BAJ/RCM
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ/LFR
AVIATION...BAJ/LFR/RCM
MARINE...BAJ/LFR/RCM


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