Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 230128
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
928 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
DEEPENING LOPRES OFF THE NJ SHORE ATTM. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PCPN
HAS MAINLY PUSHED EWD TO THE CHSPK BAY. A FEW ELEMENTS MAY STILL
GLIDE SWD ALONG/E OF I-95 THRU THE EVNG...AND AM CARRYING CHC POPS
TO ACCT FOR THIS THRU MIDNGT.

THE BIGGER STORY IS THE CLRG THAT SUBSIDENCE/DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS
CARVED OUT E OF THE BLURDG. ALTHO THE LWX SNDG FAIRLY SATD...
THERE/S PLENTY OF DRY AT VIA RNK RAOB. BELIEVE THAT CLDS WL PART
AREAWIDE OVNGT.

BUFKIT PROFILES DEPICT PLENTY OF WIND NOT TOO FAR OFF THE GRND...
HWVR MOMENTUM TRANSFER LOOKS REMARKABLY POOR FOR NW FLOW. SAME
HOLDS TRUE FOR LWX RAOB...THX TO SLGT H9-8 CAP. WL BE KEEPING PRVS
THROUGH PROCESS OF NO WND ADVY NCSRY...AS THE HIEST WINDS ALOFT WL
BE JUST E OF BLURDG. WL CONT TO MONITOR.

RAISED MIN-T SVRL DEGF...BASED ON CONTD MIXING OVNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PULL AWAY THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING
RAIN...EXCEPT POSSIBLE UPSLOPE RAIN OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.
CLOUD SHIELD EXPECTED TO STAY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...BUT CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...SO N-NW
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS
PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

COASTAL LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEARING EXPECTED OVER DC/BALTIMORE
AREAS. WINDS DIMINISH WITH DECOUPLING. LOWS IN THE 40S...AND UPPER
30S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL...THE LONG TERM WILL BE A RATHER QUIET PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
EASE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST RIDGES INTO
THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD COULD LEAD TO
SOME AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TROUGH
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE HUDSON BAY
WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO BE A DRY COLD
FRONT...WITH ONLY A COUPLE DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MODELS ARE TRENDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP
CLOSER TO THE AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY
TO OUR NORTH SO NO POPS IN THE FORECAST. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AGGRESSIVELY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD
BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
FILLS IN. MANY PLACES COULD BE INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

TERMINALS UP TO VFR CONDS ATTM...AND THAT SHUD HOLD OVNGT INTO
THU. CIGS BKN-OVC035-040...BUT CLRG STARTING TO BREAK OUT JUST E
OF BLURDG AND SHUD OVERSPREAD TAF SITES BEFORE MRNG PUSH. WINDS
SHUD BE THE ONLY FACTOR AFFECTING TERMINALS. G20-25 KT STARTING TO
WANE AT THE GRND...BUT WNDS AT THE HUBS 1000-2000 FT UP PROGGED TO
INCR TO 40 KT. AT LAST RUN...THAT WASNT ENUF TO TRIGGER LLWS
RMK... BUT ITS LKLY ENUF TO HV AN IMPACT.

SIMLR CONDS THRU END OF TAF PD AS LOPRES E OF NJ MVS TWD NEW
ENGLAND.

VFR UNDER HIPRES RDG THRU THE WKND.
&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDS ON THE WATERS ATTM. GRADIENT PROGGED TO INCR...AND HIER
WNDS POISED JUST OFF THE DECK. MIXING MAY BE PROBLEMATIC. HV OPTED
TO ADD SANDY PT-NORTH BEACH TO GLW FOR POSITIONING TO STRONG
P-GRAD AND FVRBL FETCH. ELSW...AM HOLDING ONTO SCA THRU THE NGT
INTO THU.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THU NGT AS WELL AS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY
EASY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA. AM NOT TACKLING
THAT NOW DUE TO ONGOING GLW HAZARDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING FOR BREEZY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530-531-
     535-536-538>540-542.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-541-
     543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KCS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...KCS
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS/CEB







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