Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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476
FXUS61 KLWX 190800
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
400 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure will remain over the eastern United
States through early next week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Jose is expected
to track north off the Mid Atlantic coast through Wednesday. Refer
to the National Hurricane Center`s website hurricanes.gov for the
latest on Jose.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...A stratus layer has been moving
westward from the ocean and is now over the I-95 corridor.
Widespread low clouds are also evident west of the Blue Ridge.
Regional radars show far outer rain bands from Hurricane Jose
reaching the MD eastern shore and the DE coastline. These could
reach St. Marys and Calvert counties and the Chesapeake Bay this
morning. Do not think they will reach the I-95 corridor and Will
be likely lowering POPs this morning and keep them for the
areas mentioned above as latest NHC track on Jose has trended a
bit eastward. Closest approach to St. Marys county is this
afternoon a little over 300 miles to the ESE. There could be a
few showers that pop up over the higher terrain later this
afternoon but cvrg will be isolated if anything.

Low clouds will gradually erode through the late morning with
skies becoming clear by early evening. Some patchy fog is
possible over the valleys west of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...Ridge of high
pressure will be gradually strengthening over the region Wed
through the weekend keeping generally warm and dry conditions.
Models, however, do show a shortwave-trough over the OH valley
weakening as it approaches the Appalachians. These could result
in a few diurnal showers over the mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A firm ridge of high pressure will ensure that our region remains
dry with warm temperatures Friday through Monday. A stray shower or
two can`t ruled out over the highest ridges of the Potomac Highlands
due to daytime heating. High temperatures could be about 10 degrees
above average for this third week of September. Highs ranging from
near 80 in the western ridges and along the coastal waters of the
Chesapeake Bay to the middle 80s elsewhere.

Remnants of Jose could still linger off of the mid-Atlantic Coast
or somewhere south of southern New England and the tropical system,
Maria, may try to move northward from near the Bahama Islands and be
somewhere in the western Atlantic. There are still uncertainties
with both tropical features. Check out the National Hurricane
Center`s website on both features.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

IFR cigs this morning in stratus lifting later this morning.
Skies clear tonight but patchy dense fog could develop at the
usual sites like KCHO and KMRB.

VFR conditions Friday through Monday. Winds generally northeast
around 5 knots each afternoon, then light and variable each
night.

&&

.MARINE...

Guidance has trended weaker with winds over the Chesapeake Bay
and show the winds peaking this morning before they start
diminishing this afternoon. No need for gale warnings. Winds
should drop below SCA Wed afternoon if not a little sooner.

No marine hazards expected Friday through Monday. Winds northeast 5
to 10 knots each afternoon, then northeast around 5 knots each
night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Minor coastal flooding expected at Straits Point over the next
several high tide cycles. CF.Y has been extended.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ531-
     539-542.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     535-536-538.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ532>534-
     537-540-541-543.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR



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