Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 300135
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
935 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING WITH THE
EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING REGISTERING PW AT 1.50 INCHES. HOWEVER, THE
SHOWER COVERAGE IS ON THE DECREASE. STILL...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
AFFECTING THE GULF COAST. THESE ARE FORECAST TO PUSH FULLY
OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT WITH MOVEMENT ONSHORE THE
ATLANTIC COAST, SO WILL HOLD ON TO 20 POPS EAST COAST. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA STILL PERSIST OVER THE ATLANTIC MOVING ONSHORE BUT TOO
LIGHT AND FAST MOVING TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WILL ALSO AFFECT KAPF THROUGH 01-02Z AND THEN DISSIPATE. A
LIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE BUT EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SO MOST TSRA SHOULD BE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. EAST FLOW ALSO WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A SOUTHWEST COAST SEA BREEZE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WHERE
DEWPOINTS WERE STILL IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED THROUGH NAPLES. THE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL
LOW ACROSS THE WEST...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE EAST COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW RAINY SEASON
PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SCATTERED MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EAST AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS DISAGREE IF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
CUTOFF WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER LOUISIANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. A
LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WITH NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
LEAD TO SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE REGION
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK TO OVER THE REGION
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE GFS
HAS A CUTOFF UPPER LOW REMAINING OVER LOUISIANA. EITHER
WAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO OVER
2 INCHES. THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING.

AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ALSO,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE
FROM BROWARD COUNTY NORTHWARD. MODELS INDICATE THEY SHOULD BEGIN
TO FORM NEAR THE GULF COAST AS WELL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE SHOWERS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SO,
ONLY A SPORADIC MENTION OF VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD FURTHER DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THINK THAT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE INTERIOR, OR
POSSIBLY ALONG THE GULF COAST. BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY CERTAINTY,
NO MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

MARINE...
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY. NO MARINE CONCERNS FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  86  75  86 /  20  30  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  86  76  86 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            76  88  76  87 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           72  89  72  88 /  20  50  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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