Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 282005
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
305 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
"CLASSIC" COOL JANUARY DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH NW WINDS
STRAIGHT DOWN THE PENINSULA LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A COLD NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AS
USUAL WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO TURN NE DURING THE NIGHT, A TRICKY LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST BUT FEEL CONFIDENT THAT MOST AREAS WILL BE AS
COOL, IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER, THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE
EVENING WILL GET OFF TO A CHILLY START DUE TO THE DAYTIME TEMPS IN
THE 60S AND VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET. TEMPERATURE FALL WILL BECOME SLOW AND
RATHER ERRATIC BY LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
COLDEST READINGS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S OVER WESTERN GLADES AND
HENDRY COUNTIES, WITH 40S ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE
EVERGLADES. EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S
FAR WESTERN SUBURBS TO MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY, WITH GRADIENT
FLOW BECOMING NE AND DECREASING IN SPEED. IT WILL BE NOT AS COOL
BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH WILL SETTLE RIGHT OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT
AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN THE 40S/50S AS
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
DRY ONCE AGAIN AS FRONT STAYS NORTH OF THE AREA. NORTHWEST/NORTH
WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP AIR MASS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MODERATE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN QUITE A BIT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, THE TAIL
END OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY, THEREFORE WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHC/CHC SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST.

.EXTENDED (SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER AREA FROM THE SOUTH,
INTRODUCING A STEADY WARMING TREND WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY.
ALONG WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA IN MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BECAUSE OF THIS, WILL
KEEP A FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT, THEN START
TO SUBSIDE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS DECREASE. NE/E WINDS
BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT RANGE
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO RATHER ROUGH CONDITIONS THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT NOT AS
DRY AS TODAY. NEVERTHELESS, LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE IN THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE BOTH DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  52  72  54  75 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  54  72  58  76 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            54  73  57  76 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           46  74  52  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....60/BD


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