Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 042355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VCTS AND TEMPOS FOR -TSRA ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
02-03Z TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. EXPECT
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. AFTER 03Z THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. TAFS WILL KEEP
CARRYING VCTS THROUGH 06Z...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

..SLIM CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...
..DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...
..INCREASING FIRE DANGER LATE WEEK...
..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL BOATERS NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL FL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEING DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR, NSSL WRF, AND A COUPLE OF
LOCAL CONFIGURATIONS ALL INDICATE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING TOWARDS 00Z AND EXITING THE EAST COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY HAVE BEGAN
TO ABATE AND/OR MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.

MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS THEN IS WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER LEFT AT THIS POINT? ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGHEST
VALUES OF CAPE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
WORKED UP THE ATMOSPHERE. SRH VALUES ARE MARGINAL. IN FACT CURRENT
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND UNLESS A
C-BRZ DEVELOPS ALONG EAST COAST, THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. SPC KEEPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TRUTH IS UNLESS EAST COAST C-BRZ DEVELOPS AND INSTABILITY
IMPROVES THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AT THE VERY LEAST THE MAIN CONCERN LEFT
MAY BE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH ANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOSTLY WITH LOCAL ADVISORIES
IF NEEDED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
AGAIN THE THREAT OF THAT MATERIALIZING WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM THIS POINT ON.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-
UPPER 60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.

MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET WILL PROMPT AT LEAST SCEC. ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMPT AN ADVISORY TONIGHT.

BEYOND THAT, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NW WINDS OF UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH THE RAIN TODAY, THE WIND AND LOWERING RH TOMORROW WILL
QUICKLY WORK TO DRY FUELS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BY FRIDAY, THE
FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE THINKS THE FUELS WILL BE VOLATILE ENOUGH
WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE, WITH WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH TO CREATE POSSIBLE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE WIND RELAXES MORE, THE RH
IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S PERCENT RANGE, KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SO, WILL CONTINUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE. ALSO,
THE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY IS ALREADY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 75 IN THE PART OF THE INTERIOR. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP WATCH ISSUED THIS MORNING AND
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  62  83  61  80 /  90   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  84  66  83 /  90   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  85  63  84 /  90   0  10   0
NAPLES           67  83  64  78 /  90  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...17/AR


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