Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 282351

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
751 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Southeast winds will gradually diminish this evening and
remain around 10 to 15 mph along the east coast while becoming
light inland. There is a chance of some patchy areas of fog to
develop tonight after midnight mainly over the western interior
counties. Visibility will improve in the early morning as winds
gradually increase tomorrow. The forecast is on track at this


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 749 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

The east-southeast winds will continue tonight at all Atlantic
TAF sites with speeds remaining around 12 knots, and dropping
to 5-10 knots over APF. The ceiling and vis are expected to remain
VFR through Saturday morning, then periods of MVFR cigs are
possible in the afternoon hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

Upper level ridge stretching from the Gulf of Mexico to the western
Atlantic is centered over the Florida Peninsula today. It will keep
control of the weather pattern providing dry and breezy conditions
with a few isolated showers possible along the Gulf coast. Tonight,
easterly wind around 10 to 15 mph will remain through the night
across the Atlantic coast and lower to less than 10 mph in the
interior. Portions of the interior may see some patches of fog
tonight but do not expect widespread development as winds stay close
to 10 mph tonight. Thus, patchy fog will be possible and could
reduce visibility at times.

This weekend, southeast winds will quickly increase during the day
and remain breezy each afternoon. It will be a warm weekend with
temperatures in the 90s out west and mid 80s along the east coast.
Shallow low level moisture will continue to advect across the
peninsula from the Atlantic waters, allowing dew points to remain
high closer to 70s each day. The heat index will approach mid to
upper 90s, for interior Collier County, due to elevated dewpoints
near 70 degrees.

Next week: Surface analysis indicates a longwave trough sagging
along the eastern CONUS with a cold front draped southward from
upstate New York down to northern Alabama. This will bring a weak
cold front beginning to approach from the west across the peninsula
early next week. Ahead of this feature, the flow will turn more
southerly and draw deeper moisture into the region. The combination
of sufficient heat and and humidity will lead to chances of shower
and thunderstorm activity Monday through mid week. Another, stronger
cold front is progged to push through the region by mid to late next
week. This is where models differ. The GFS is more progressive,
pushing the front across by Thursday night, while the ECMWF is
slower with a Friday night passage. This far out, however,
confidence on timing is rather low.

Southeast winds will continue through the weekend increase to
SCEC tonight into this weekend as gradient strengthens over the
region. Increase in moisture into early next week will enhance
the potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
coastal waters through mid week.

The easterly winds will continue over all of the east coast taf
sites of south Florida through tonight. The wind speeds will be
around 15 mph this afternoon before decreasing to 10 to 15 knots
Tonight. KAPF taf site will also see winds between 10 to 15 knots
this afternoon before decreasing to 5 to 10 knots tonight.
The wind direction at KAPF taf will be southerly this afternoon
swinging to a easterly direction tonight. The ceiling and vis will
also remain in VFR conditions through tonight.

Due to low humidity values over the interior and moderate winds
over the area, Red Flag Warning continues in effect through the
early evening. High pressure centered over Florida will generate
warm and dry conditions this weekend. There will be an increase in
southeast winds each afternoon with transport winds getting up to
around 10 to 15 mph each day. Min RH values remain above critical
level each day lowering the potential for critical fire weather
both days. Increase in moisture by next week will lead for showers
and some isolated thunderstorms into next week.

West Palm Beach  77  86  78  85 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  78  85  78  85 /  10  10  20  20
Miami            77  87  77  86 /  10  10  20  20
Naples           73  91  72  90 /  10   0   0   0




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