Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 262353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING, BUT STILL
OCCURRING IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH SOME ISOLATED CELLS. BUT
THESE SHOULD ALSO START COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST
OF THE LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING,
SO KEPT IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE,
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

.MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
.STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG


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