Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 281420
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1020 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA AND BISCAYNE BAY EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
CONTINUES MID-MORNING BUT WITH LESS AREAL COVERAGE. OTHERWISE NO
Additional UPDATES WERE NECESSARY TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 811 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016/

AVIATION...

CURRENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN
BISCYANE BAY. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SHORT
TERM WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT TERMINALS KOPF...KMIA
AND KTMB THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED VCTS WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016/

.Hot end to the work week across South Florida...

DISCUSSION...
A deep layered area of high pressure off the Atlantic coast of
Florida continues to be the major synoptic feature late in the
week. The majority of shower and thunderstorm activity this
morning will be driven either by activity reaching the region from
the Florida Straits or the Atlantic. A Gulf coast sea breeze is
expected to develop later today, which could create a focus area
for convection over the interior and portions of Southwest
Florida. The drier air mass over the region will continue to
suppress convection today and possibly tomorrow. This will help
minimize cloud cover again, creating heat index values in excess
of 105 again today and Friday across many portions of the southern
peninsula of Florida. The potential for a strong storm is not
zero, but any storms that develop could produce lightning and
gusty winds.

Heading into the weekend, the high will shift slightly as a
boundary pushes into the southeastern United States and a Tropical
Upper Tropospheric Trough (or TUTT) nears the region late on
Saturday. Increased moisture and the presence of the TUTT low
could provide a return to more typical rain and storm chances for
the weekend across southern Florida. As the weakening TUTT low
departs to conclude the weekend, the next major feature we will
be watching will be a tropical wave that guidance has been
consistently depicting over the last few runs in the area of the
Greater Antilles on Monday and Tuesday before pushing across the
peninsula of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday. Right now the
primary impacts from the tropical wave appear to be increasing
rain chances. We will have to monitor the progress of this feature
as it is still well out in the extended forecast period.

MARINE...
East to southeast wind flow at speeds of 10 to 15 knots will
prevail through the weekend. There is a chance of showers and
thunderstorms at any time, but the best chances will be afternoon
and evening over Lake Okeechobee and along the Gulf coast. In
addition to dangerous lightning, gusty and erratic winds will
accompany the stronger thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 148 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites
through the TAF period ending 06z Friday. Introduced VCSH at KOPF,
KMIA, and KTMB beginning at 14z as some increased low-level
moisture moves into the region, with dry conditions expected at
KPBI, KFXE, and KFLL. Confidence was not high enough to include
VCTS at this time, and will amend as necessary if the thunderstorm
threat increases. VCTS will be possible at KAPF beginning 18z
with the bulk of the activity expected to be north and west.

Winds will be out of the east/southeast at the east coast TAF
sites around 5 knots overnight increasing to 10-15 knots by the
mid-morning hours, with some gusts up to 20 knots possible during
the afternoon. Winds will be light and variable at KAPF overnight
becoming southwest at 5-10 knots as a weak Gulf Coast sea breeze
tries to develop by the early afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  92  81  92  78 /  10  20  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  90  81  90  79 /  20  30  30  10
Miami            91  81  91  79 /  30  30  40  10
Naples           92  79  90  77 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....


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