Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 271347
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
947 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS VERY DRY...WITH A PWAT OF ONLY
1.19 INCHES. THIS IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. 700MB TEMPS WERE 12C...FREEZING LEVEL OVER
18KFT...AND 500MB TEMP ONLY AROUND -2C. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
MOISTURE EXISTS UP TO 800MB TO KEEP THE 10-20 POP FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THE DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS
CRISTOBAL MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THE BOUNDARY SEPARATING THE
DRY AIR FROM THE DEEP MOISTURE WAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAK GULF BREEZE TO FORM AT
KAPF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...HI RES MODELS ARE
DEPICTING A FEW SHRAS TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN AND AROUND
THE NAPLES AREA SO PREVAILED VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS AT KAPF. KEPT
THE EAST COAST SITES DRY WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014/

.REWORDED MARINE PARAGRAPH BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
LOOKS LIKE ONE MORE BENIGN WEATHER DAY AND THEN BACK TO MORE TYPICAL
SOUTH FLORIDA SUMMER PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.
AN INTERESTING FEATURE WITH THIS TROUGH IS THAT BOTH THE THE NAM,
GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOW THE TROUGH SLOPING TO THE NORTH AT A POSITION
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND IT SHOWS UP NICELY ON ALL OF THEIR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WITH A SHALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT ANY
RATE, THE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THIS TROUGH MOVING BACK NORTH AND KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY VERY DRY WITH A PWAT LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THEY
DO BRING A MOISTURE INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH PWAT INCREASING TO
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WHICH IS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT THIS SHOULD ALLOW TO GET BACK TO A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTH, THE STEERING FLOW
ON THURSDAY WILL BE MORE OR LESS SOUTH TO NORTH SO MOST OF THE
STORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
AS CRISTOBAL EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST, THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AND
RAPIDLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING LABOR DAY
WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TODAY WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST
WIND AT 10KT OR LESS. HOWEVER, SMALL NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS OFF OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD
COUNTIES WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE AT NEAR 7 FEET EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER THE
GULF STREAM WATERS AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
EARLY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING BUT WILL NEED TO EXTEND THROUGH
TODAY WITH SEAS THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH TONIGHT. AN EAST
WIND WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  79  90  79 /  10  10  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  81  93  81 /  10  20  40  20
MIAMI            91  80  91  81 /  10  20  40  20
NAPLES           92  78  92  78 /  10  10  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK



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