National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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FXUS66 KMFR 161809 AAA
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1109 AM PDT SUN MAR 16 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...A FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH ARE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA
TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP WITH THIS FRONT DOWN TO
5000 FEET AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS THEN LOWERING DOWN TO 3000 FEET
AND LOCALLY TO 2500 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT  SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA.

HAVE UPDATED THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE WATERS AS SHORT TERM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SLIGHTLY FASTER, REACHING THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO
UPDATED THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND QPF TO INDICATE THE
FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT INLAND THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM THIS FRONT TO BE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW.
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO AREAS
EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY FOR SUMMER LAKE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT THEN DECREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
WEST SIDE WITH MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS SNOW LEVELS DROP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES GETTING THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2
TO 6 INCHES.  /CC

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 16/18Z TAF CYCLE...MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS AS GRADIENTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STRENGTHEN. WINDS MAY BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY AT KMFR. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING RAIN TO KOTH BY AROUND 01Z, THEN KRBG BY 03Z WITH CIGS
LOWERING DOWN TO MVFR. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED. RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z AT KMFR WHERE CIGS WILL LOWER, BUT
PROBABLY REMAIN VFR. AT KLMT, A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 07-09Z WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SPILDE

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BECOME VERY STEEP THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING AS A LARGE WEST SWELL TRAIN MOVES THROUGH. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY. NORTH
GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS EASTWARD AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON. FB/SPILDE

&&

.CLIMATE...MONTAGUE, CALIFORNIA SET A RECORD HIGH OF 72F ON
SATURDAY, MARCH 15TH BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 71F SET IN
2004. KLAMATH FALLS AND MOUNT SHASTA CITY BOTH CAME WITHIN ONE
DEGREE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY WITH 66F AND 73F, RESPECTIVELY.
WHILE RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FROM MOUNT
SHASTA CITY AND KLAMATH FALLS EASTWARD TODAY, THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021-022.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ030-031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-370.

$$

CMC/MAS
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
