Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 230320
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
820 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DECREASING
ACROSS THE AREA. MOST ACTIVITY WAS OVER KLAMATH...LAKE...SISKIYOU
AND MODOC COUNTIES. ALL THUNDERSTORMS STAYED SMALL WITH JUST A
LITTLE LIGHTNING. SOUTHWEST OREGON NO LONGER HAS ANY SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THE DECREASING
SHOWERS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND NICELY SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED
THIS EVENING. JBL

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/00Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD,
RELEGATING MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST SIDE BY LATER THIS
EVENING. TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN BECOME MVFR TO IFR, THOUGH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD
KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE. OVERNIGHT TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES.
-BPN/BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND
A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEK. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BORDERLINE AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH,
THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO A THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN
INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID- WEEK BUT WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE
AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES. BPN/DW/JBL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 PM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE CA/NV/AZ BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE SHOWERS OVER THE EAST SIDE, CASCADES, AND
SISKIYOUS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED STRIKES EXPECTED.
THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND A SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COAST AND MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS WILL BRING POSSIBLE SHOWERS
OVER THE EAST SIDE AND CASCADES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN
STABILITY INDICES AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY STEARING FLOW, DO NOT
EXPECT THUNDER IN OUR CWA.

A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP THE WEST SIDE
PRIMARILY DRY AND WARM, WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. ON MONDAY, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL CONVERGE WITH STABLE ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE COAST TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SISKIYOUS AND SPREADING TO THE EAST SIDE. -MSC/SBN

LONG TERM...TUESDAY, MAY 26TH THROUGH FRIDAY, MAY 29TH...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH 70S AND 80S ACROSS MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME
RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, MOSTLY ON THE EAST
SIDE. NEXT FRIDAY MODELS DO PUSH THIS RISK WESTWARD SOME, MORE
TOWARD AREAS OVER AND NEAR THE CASCADES. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM PDT
     MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

JBL/JBL/BPN



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