Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KMFR 090412
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
812 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE THIS EVENING, MAINLY
TO ADJUST TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH THE VERY WARM DAYTIME TEMPS
TODAY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 09/00Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
BE AN AVIATION HAZARD AT ALL 4 TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 30 TO 40 KNOT WINDS 1500-2000 FEET ABOVE
GROUND. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE UMPQUA VALLEY AND
PERHAPS THE SCOTT, ILLINOIS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROGUE
VALLEYS AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL BE VFR. /FB

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 800 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016...A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL MOVE NORTH. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS BEYOND LONGITUDE 130W. A FRONT
MAY MOVE NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THIS FRONT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE WATERS BUT THERE MAY BE
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
MOVE IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS.

ANOTHER STEEP LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 18 SECONDS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. -BPN/FB


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM PST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...THE WESTERN REGION SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE THIS
MORNING REVEALED NAEFS FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON...FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WERE TO BE SOME
OF THE WARMEST EXPERIENCED IN THE THE PAST 30 YEARS. THIS HAS
PROVEN ACCURATE AS NORTH BEND AT 155 PM PST WAS 79 AND HAD BROKEN
ITS PREVIOUS RECORD OF 69 SET IN 1963. ALSO AS OF AT 205 PM PST
MEDFORD HAS REACHED 76 AND HAS ALSO BROKEN ITS PREVIOUS RECORD OF
70 SET IN 1996. TO KEEP THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, MEDFORD`S ALL-TIME
HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED IN FEBRUARY WAS 79 IN 1992, AND THAT
OCCURRED ON THE 26TH. LASTLY, AS OF 155 PM, KLAMATH FALLS WAS 58,
AND THIS TIES THEIR PREVIOUS RECORD OF 58 IN 1996. CHECK RECORD
EVENT REPORTS AFTER 4 PM FOR OFFICIAL RECORDS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY OVER THE REGION HOWEVER THE STRONG EASTERLY
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EASING AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND COASTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RELAX. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DESPITE
THE HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD. UPCOMING TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES DON`T
LOOK NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE AREA AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
NUDGE DOWNWARD IN HIGHS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS SO A BUNCH OF
ADDITIONAL RECORDS AREN`T ANTICIPATED, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE ANOTHER RECORD OR TWO FALL.

OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN IN THE UMPQUA AND
ILLINOIS VALLEYS, AND INTO SOME OF WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.

LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE COAST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING A CHANCE
FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COOS, CURRY,
AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. STAVISH

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...OVERALL, THE RIDGE THAT
IS BRINGING THE UNSEASONABLY MILD (WARM) WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE
REGION EARLY THIS WEEK WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW PACIFIC SYSTEMS TO REACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND A MODEST
COOLING TREND. FLAT RIDGING ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT PACIFIC DISTURBANCES STILL MAY RIDE OVER THE TOP AT TIMES.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE,
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN BOTH THE 12Z
ECWMF/CANADIAN GEM MODELS. FOR FRIDAY, HAVE BLENDED SOLUTIONS HERE TO
IRON OUT SOME OF THE DETAILS, WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE
CASCADES WEST, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. HAVE KEPT IT MOSTLY DRY OVER
THE EAST SIDE AND IN MODOC COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH, MOSTLY
ABOVE 6000 FEET.

SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...AGAIN HIGHEST ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP A BIT DOWN TO 4000 TO 5000
FEET BY SATURDAY MORNING.

CONFIDENCE LESSENS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO REBUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES IT
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY FLAT WITH A WARM FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH.
MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE LARGE CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE RIDGE FAIRLY ROBUSTLY, WHILE THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN GEM REMAIN FLAT ENOUGH THAT A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE CAN
STILL BRING SOME RAIN, MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES AND NORTH OF THE
UMPQUA DIVIDE. CONTINUITY LEANED MORE TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION AND
HAVE LEFT THIS MOSTLY AS IS.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, MODELS SHOW A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS, SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THEN. SPILDE


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

BPN/MTS/MS/FJB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.