Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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498
FXUS62 KMHX 280239
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1039 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from offshore tonight.
A cold front will approach from the northwest Friday and move
through late Saturday. Low pressure will develop northeast of
the area Sunday and gradually move to the northeast early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 1030 PM Thursday...No changes to the forecast with an area
of showers now inching closer to the western edge of our
forecast area, with an arrival in those areas in the next hour.
Increasing chances for mainly rain over the northwest part of
the area through 2 AM still looks on track, with late night
showers possible on the coast. Forecast will also indicate
increasing cloud cover with convective debris spreading in and
return to warmer temps with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...Shortwave energy will continue to spread
in from W-NW through the day with atmosphere becoming more moist
and unstable. Models indicate scattered to broken coverage
possible over area through the day with best coverage for
northern sections in morning and western sections in afternoon.
Kept previous forecast POPs of chance for morning increasing to
high chance to likely in afternoon. SPC keeps area in Day 2
Slight Risk outlook and expect main severe threat in evening
with better shear, but a few stronger storms possible in
afternoon. Highs from mid 80s beaches to near 90 inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday... A cold front will approach the area Friday
night and move across the area Saturday continuing to bring a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region. The front
will stall off the coast with a quasi-stationary low pressure area
remaining over VA and NE NC Sunday into Monday before it lift NE
away from the area.

Friday night through Monday...  A significant shortwave/upper level
low will drop down from the Great Lakes and forecasted to move over
the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday as it strengthens. The models are
now showing since the 27/00z runs, a cut-off low developing over the
DELMARVA area Saturday which remains quasi-stationary near the area
through Monday. As a result, models are slower to push the attendant
cold front through the area Saturday with a vertically stacked low
remaining north of the area Sunday into Monday which may continue to
bring a few showers across the region into early next week.

Ahead of the front, an increase moist SW flow and instability,
decent amount of shear (30-35 knots) and favorable upper level
dynamics...supporting the develop of strong to severe thunderstorms
to persist into Saturday with the cold front pushing through
Saturday. The primary severe threat will be damaging wind gusts.
While storm motions are expected to be fairly fast, with PW values
in excess of 2" storms could bring heavy rainfall and if training
occurs may produce localized flooding, especially in low-lying and
poor drainage areas.

Friday`s overnight low will range low/mid 70s inland to mid 70s
along the coast. Cooler temps on starting Saturday through Monday
with highs in the mid 80s most areas except lower 80s across the OBX.
Lows expected in the 70s Friday night then mid to upper 60s inland
and low to mid 70s coast Saturday and Sunday nights.

Tuesday through Thursday...The upper level trough will persist
across the area through midweek, while the quasi-stationary front
moves closer to the coast. Confidence remains low as the models
continue to show differences with the strength of the upper level
trough, and whether it will persist over the area or lift out
Wednesday. Will continue the mention of slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms along the coastal half of the forecast area for
each day. High temps will range in the 80s and lows in the mid/upper
60s inland to mid 70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through Friday afternoon/...
As of 720 PM Thurs...VFR conditions are expected through the
TAF period. Overnight mainly VFR but models continue to show
some increasing moisture around 1,000 feet. Confidence is low
as to how widespread they will be so we will continue to
indicate this with just a SCT group for now. Mainly VFR again
Friday. Some scattered showers or thunderstorms possible mainly
after 18Z. Too far out and too scattered in coverage to indicate
more than VCSH in the TAFS right now. It does appear any
widespread chances for restrictions may be Friday night and late
Friday night at that.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...Sub-VFR conditions associated numerous
showers and thunderstorms as a cold front moves into the region
Friday night and Saturday with possible periods of IFR conditions
with heavier rain. Sub-VFR conditions will persist through Monday
with conditions improving back to VFR Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Friday/...
As of 1030 PM Friday...South winds mainly 10 to 20 kts with seas
2 to 3 feet all waters as of 10 PM. The tightening of pressure
gradient will result in a few more 15-20 KT speeds over
northern and central waters overnight, decreasing back to 10-15
KT in morning. Approaching front will produce 15-20 KT SW winds
for southern and central waters Friday afternoon.

Seas 2-3 feet early evening will build to 3-4 feet north tonight
and to 4-5 feet most outer waters by late Friday.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 345 Thursday...A strong cold front will approach the region
Friday night and push through the waters Saturday night. An area of
low pressure will linger just north of the waters Sunday into Monday
before lifting NE away from the area late Monday. SW winds 15-25 kt
Friday night into Saturday morning ahead of the front with seas
building to 4-7 ft. Small craft advisory was issued starting Friday
night through most of the weekend. Winds become NW around 10-20 kt
late Saturday behind the front, which gradually shifts to N Sunday
afternoon, then NE by late Monday and finally becoming ENE 10-15
knots Tuesday. Seas expected around 3-6 ft Sunday through Tuesday,
highest across the northern and central waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM/EH
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...EH/BM/SGK
MARINE...JBM/EH/BM



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