Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 181757
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1257 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually move offshore this afternoon. A
strong cold front will move through the area early Sunday. High
pressure will be over the area Monday into Tuesday. A cold front
will cross the area Tuesday night followed by high pressure for
mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1255 PM Saturday...No big changes to the current forecast
with high clouds continuing to spill into the region from the
northwest as a strong cold front approaches. Temperatures have
warmed well into the 60s and a few spots will possibly reach
70 degrees by later in the day with strong WAA ahead of front.
S/SW winds are starting to ramp up now and will increase through
the afternoon. Wind Advisories remain in effect along the coast
from Carteret County north through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Models remain consistent with positively
tilted short wave and associated cold front moving into area
late tonight and near coast by 7 AM Sunday. With main dynamics
moving north of area, models continue to indicate main
widespread precip over NW third of area and increased POPs to
likely there with solid chance POPs rest of area. Bulk shear of
50-60 KT indicated but negligible CAPE/instability, this
expecting only showers but any heavier activity could produce
gusty winds. Stronger gradient winds of 25-35 MPH support wind
advisory for Outer Banks and eastern Carteret County. Min temps
from mid 50s inland to near 60 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 am Sat...A cold front will move off the coast Sunday
morning. High pressure then builds in Monday and Tuesday.
Another front will move off the coast Wednesday morning. Low
pressure will pass by to the southeast Thanksgiving Day into
Friday.

Sunday...The cold front is expected to cross eastern NC Sunday
morning, with showers quickly ending from west to east before
noon. Precipitation amounts will be light, mainly 0.10" or less
in most areas. Low temps Sunday morning will be mild, in the
50s, as we will still be receiving strong warm air advection.
Highs on Sunday will be cooler, with temps only rising 5-6
degrees from the morning lows behind the cold front.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will build in from the west
Monday and then move off the coast on Tuesday. Cold air aloft
will lead to much below normal highs on Monday, but then warmer
southerly flow on Tuesday will lead to milder highs. Highs
Monday will be in the mid 50s, and on Tuesday highs will reach
60-65. Low temps will be in the lower to mid 30s inland both
Monday and Tuesday mornings, with mid to upper 30s further east,
and low to mid 40s along the coast.

Wednesday thru Friday...Another fast-moving front will move off
the coast Wednesday morning. After that, an offshore trough
will develop and move over the Gulf Stream on Wednesday, and
will bring showers to eastern NC. Have slight chance PoPs west
of Highway 17 and chance east. Low pressure will pass by to the
southeast Thursday and Friday. GFS is much stronger with the
low, while the ECMWF is much weaker. Consensus is favoring the
ECMWF solution at this time. Will carry mostly slight chance
PoPs Thursday and Friday.

High temps will be in the mid 60s Wednesday, and then the mid
50s Thursday and 55-60 Friday. Low temps Wed will range from
the mid 40s inland to the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast.
Lows Thursday will be around 40 on the coastal plain to 45-50
south coast and OBX. Lows Friday morning will be in the mid to
upper 30s coastal plain to mid/upper 40s south coast and OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through 12Z Sunday/...
As of 1245 PM Saturday...High confidence that VFR conditions
will dominate most of the period, except when the cold front
passes through the area between 08-12z. High pressure slid off
the coast this morning with a cold front approaching the region.
Expect mid to high clouds to stream through the area this
afternoon with SCT to BKN SCU to develop and gusty SW winds up
to 20 KT. Models are showing possible MVFR ceiling conditions
after midnight as the cold front moves through the TAF sites
with gusty winds up to 30 knots and a chance of low level wind
shear 35-40 KT to occur. After the frontal passage, ceiling
conditions will return back to VFR with NW gusty winds.

Long Term /Sun thru Wed/
As of 230 am Sat...The cold front will move quickly off the
coast Sunday morning, with showers ending by mid-morning. After
that, VFR conditions forecast through the rest of the period as
high pressure builds back over the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 1255 PM Saturday...winds really starting to ramp up inland
at midday and should increase along the Sounds first, then
coastal waters over the next few hours. No changes to the Gale
Warnings or Small Craft Advisories at this time. Seas of 2-3
feet currently will build to 8-13 feet by tonight as SW/W winds
increase to 25-35 knots with gusts as high as 40-45 knots
possible later tonight ahead of a strong cold front.

Long Term /Sun thru Wed/
As of 230 am Sat...As the cold front crosses the waters Sunday
morning, winds will weaken slightly and shift to NW 25-30 kts.
Gales will end by late Sunday morning, with winds becoming
20-25 kts by late afternoon. Winds on Monday morning will be NNW
15-20 kts, subsiding to 10-15 kts in the afternoon. Winds
Tuesday will be light and variable before becoming SSE 5-10 kts.
Another front will cross the waters Wednesday morning, with
winds becoming north 10-15 knots.

Seas will be 8-13 ft Sunday morning, subsiding to 6-9 ft Sunday
afternoon. Seas will remain elevated through Sunday evening
north of Ocracoke, then subside to 3-5 ft throughout Monday,
then 2-4 ft Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for
     NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for AMZ130-131-136-137.
     Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     AMZ135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/BM
MARINE...CTC/JBM/HSA



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