Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 011405 CCA
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1005 AM EDT Sat Oct 1 2016
An upper level low will remain quasi-stationary across the Ohio
River Valley tonight then move north Saturday and northeast
towards New England Sunday pushing a cold front across the area
Sunday night. The front will stall off of the coast early next
week while high pressure builds in from the north. Hurricane
Matthew is forecast to move north of the Bahamas and off the
Southeast coast late next week. Please see the latest forecasts
from the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Hurricane
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 10 AM...Little if any activity except along the Outer
Banks. Expect convection to develop this afternoon as atmos heats
up. No change to current PoPs/temps.
The upper low over the Ohio River Valley will slowly drift north
towards the southern Great Lakes today. The weak surface low
across Western NC will lift north into VA/MD with the trailing
cold front moving into the area. The deeper moisture will continue
to shift slightly eastward through the day. Continued diminishing
PoP trend across inland counties but maintained chance pops with
thunderstorms east of HWY 17. Shortwaves embedded within the mean
S/SSW flow aloft will be the primary drivers for convection.
Severe potential remains low but cannot rule out an isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms with biggest threats of damaging
wind gusts and hail. Heavy rain threat shifts more towards the
coast, in line with best moisture flow shifting more eastward.
Highs expected in the low to mid 80s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...The upper low continues to drift north into
the Great Lakes tonight with the trailing cold front gradually
moving across eastern NC. The deep moisture feed continues to
skirt the coast and continue chance PoPs along coastal sections
and slight chance across the coastal plain. Enough elevated
instability along the coast to continue to mention thunder but
much more stable air will reside across the western half of the
CWA. Lows tonight expected in the mid 60s inland to low to mid 70s
along the coast.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM Saturday... Sunday night through Monday...As the
upper low begins to lift NE Sunday the sfc low/front slowly
dissipates as it approaches Sunday and drifts off the coast and
stalls by Mon. The models cont to keep better moisture along and
East of the coast so will cont low chc pops cst Sunday/Sunday
evening then forecast dry weather for Monday as drier air filters
into the region in light post frontal northerly flow. Not much
change to temps with lows cont in the 60s inland to low 70s cst
with highs lower to middle 80s Sunday cooling slightly to the upr
70s to lower 80s Monday.
Tuesday through Wednesday...High pres will gradually build in
from the N Tue and slide E Wed. Expecting most areas to remain dry
through mid week but onshore flow will produce enough moisture for
a low risk of mainly coastal showers. High temps will be close to
seasonable norms in the middle to upper 70s.
Thursday through Saturday...Forecast will be much dependent on
the track of Hurricane Matthew. Will keep chance PoPs, highest
coast, through the period and maintain high temps in the 70s in
NE flow. Please see the latest forecasts from the National
Hurricane Center for the latest on Hurricane Matthew.
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 10 AM Saturday...Shower activity is east of the terminals
but cannot rule a few additional showers or isolated thunderstorm
impacting the terminals today, especially EWN. Showers expected to
remain east of the terminals tonight. Could see patchy fog again
tonight as the winds will be light and the ground is very moist
but confidence is low as drier air will be trying to work into the
region behind a very slow moving cold front pushing across the
Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...Scattered shra and a few tsra cont
through Sunday evening with the potential for sub VFR conditions.
Drier air will work in from the West Sunday into Wednesday with
only minimal chances for mainly east of the TAF sites. With
easterly flow developing early next week early morning fog and
stratus will be possible.
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 10 AM Saturday...Wave models underdone with the swell and
continue to see seas to 6 at buoys from Diamond Shoals northward.
Expect seas to diminish slightly this afternoon coincident to
decreasing winds. For now have extended the SCA at 3 pm.
Confidence is low with the timing of subsiding seas as the models
have been performing poorly with the current pattern.
Prev disc...A weak cold front continues to very slowly approach
the waters from the west through the period with southerly flow
persisting across the waters ahead of the front. Winds around
15-20 KT across the Pamlico sound and the central and southern
waters this morning is expected to diminish to around 10-15 kt
late this morning and afternoon while remaining around 5-10 KT
across the northern waters and rivers.
Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 345 AM Saturday...Weak low pres/cold front W of the region
Sunday will lead to mainly S flow aob 10 kts. The low/front will
slowly slide off the coast Sunday night. Initially post frontal
N/NE flow will be light monday AOB 10 KT then increase to 15 to 20
KT Tuesday and 20 to 25 KT Wednesday as the gradient increases in
response to high pressure building in from the North and Hurricane
Matthew vicinity of the Bahamas. Seas through Monday will be 2 to
4 FT building to 3 to 5 FT Tuesday and 6 to 8 FT Wednesday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 3 PM EDT this
afternoon for AMZ150-152-154.