Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 250225
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1025 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
A complex low pressure system will impact Eastern North Carolina
into Tuesday. High pressure in the central Atlantic will build
in Wednesday through Friday bringing above normal temperatures
and below normal rain chances.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1015 PM Monday...Latest sfc analysis continues to show
the low pressure system btw Charleston and Myrtle Beach, SC and
another sfc low approxly about 270 mi east of Charleston SC.
This evening, rainfall have been steady and moderate across
Eastern NC with minor flooding over the roads in Duplin
County...approxly about 4 inches of rain has fallen based on
radar. This complex low will slowly lift NE into NC late
tonight...shifting the 850 mb moisture transport and high PW
directly into Eastern NC where there is good upper level
diffluence leading to widespread rain and embedded hvy bands
through most of the night and into the early morning. By late
tonight, will begin to see showers taper off as a mid- level dry
slot will begin to work into the region. Abundant cloud cover
has limited instability today but will continue to mention
isolated thunder overnight as upper level diffluence continues
to increase and stronger low level convergence moves into the
region ahead of the sfc low moving toward the coast. While SPC
has dropped the marginal risk of severe across Eastern NC, there
is some concern for isolated severe ahead of the offshore low
as low level helicity ramps up across the region. Models are not
in best agreement with the track of the offshore low, ranging
from coming ashore near Cape Fear to near Cape Hatteras and the
best chance for strong storms will be ahead and east of the low.
Continue the Wind Advisory for the OBX as winds will ramp up
ahead of the low. Temps drop very little tonight with lows in
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 PM Monday...While deep moisture slide off the coast
early Tuesday will continue to have a good chance of showers
with isolated thunderstorms as the upper low tracks across
across eastern NC bringing steep mid level lapse rates. Could
also see small hail with the showers with the cold pool aloft.
Temps warm a few degrees over today with a bit more breaks of
sun and expect highs generally in the mid 70s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...As strong low pressure moves away from
the coast Tuesday night and Wednesday...a return to almost
summer- like conditions for follow for late week into the
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Closed upper low and surface
reflection will slowly move away from the northern coastal areas
Wednesday night into early Thursday. Lingering showers...mainly
northern and eastern areas...will gradually end by early
Thursday morning. Lows Tuesday night drop into the upper 50s to
Wednesday night through Thursday night...Mid/upper level ridge
will build across the region Wednesday night through Thursday
night. Temperatures warm back to above normal levels with lows
mid/upper 60s with highs Thursday upper 70s Outer Banks to upper
80s inland. Rain chances will be minimal.
Friday through Monday...Summer-like weather will prevail Friday
into early next week with Bermuda ridge offshore...southwest
surface low and very warm temperatures inland. This will lead to
a daily risk of scattered sea breeze thunderstorms and have low
PoPs inland along the typical sea breeze zone. High temperatures
will be well into the 80s with around 90 over the Coastal Plains
with lower 80s closer to the coast and lows mainly in the 60s
through the period. These above normal temperatures and below
normal PoPs will continue until a strong cold front approaches
next Monday night.
.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tuesday/...
As of 7 PM Monday...Widespread rain with embedded hvy rain will
continue to effect all TAF sites bringing mostly IFR conditions
with occasionally MVFR conditions. After 6z, conditions will
slowly improve back to MVFR as a mid- level dry slot begins to
work into the region. Precip tapers off late tonight but shower
chances continue through Tuesday as the upper low tracks over
eastern NC and could even see small hail embedded with heavier
showers. Wind gusts 20-25 kt possible through tonight as well,
especially in heavier showers.
Long Term /Tue Night through Sat/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Some lingering showers and a period of MVFR
ceilings is possible Tuesday night and early Wednesday as strong
upper level low and surface reflection exit off the coast. The
remainder of the forecast should generally be VFR with a small
threat of sea breeze thunderstorms Friday and Saturday
afternoons...which could briefly reduce ceilings and vsbys.
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 1015 PM Monday...Latest buoy obs are showing E winds
around 15 knots over the northern waters and ESE winds 20-30
knots south. Seas have been 10-14 ft from Oregon Inlet south,
meanwhile 6 to 8 ft north. The complex low pressure system will
continue to track NE towards the waters tonight and Tuesday
bringing dangerous boating conditions. E/SE winds have increased
this afternoon with gusts to gales across the offshore coastal
waters and are expect winds to continue to increase as an
offshore surface low east of Charleston moves toward the NC
coast with SE/E winds increasing to 20-35 kt and gusts in excess
of 40 kt, strongest across the outer central waters, peaking
late this evening into the early morning hours. NWPS continues
to show seas building to 8-15 feet. Continue Gale Warning for
all waters except the inland rivers where the Small Craft
Warning continues. Extended the high surf advisory north of Cape
Lookout, for rough surf and minor beach erosion through
Long Term /Tue Night through Sat/...
As of 310 PM Monday...As strong surface/upper low exits the
southeast VA coast Tuesday night and early Wednesday...residual
swell energy will linger into Wednesday evening before subsiding
with weak ridging taking hold across the coastal waters. Small
Craft Advisory will gradually end sometime Wednesday night. For
Thursday into the weekend...Bermuda high will set up offshore
with SW winds 10-15 knots...a few occasional gusts to 20
knots...with seas 3-5 feet.
As of 330 PM Monday...Flash flood watch continues for W/SW
sections of the CWA as this area has best chance of seeing storm
total 2-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts up to 5
inches. Latest guidance suite does show the area of heaviest
rain remaining S/SW of the area late today and tonight, though
will keep watch in place. Heaviest rain is expected late today
and overnight, as low strengthens and moves along the Carolina
As of 4 PM Monday...High surf advisory extended for beaches
north of Cape Lookout through Tuesday with surf heights up to 7
to 10. Could see minor water level rises around 1 to 2 ft for
soundside areas adjacent to the Pamlico Sound vulnerable to E
winds. With water levels already elevated from high
astronomical tides decided to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for
Beaufort, Pamlico, Craven and Carteret Counties through
tonight. High threat of rip currents at all beaches today.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ044-079-080-
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ080-
Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
evening for NCZ095-098-103-104.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ095-103-104.
Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ136-137.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135-152-154.
Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ130-131-150.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.