Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 210750

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
350 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

A cold front with limited moisture will move through from the
west this afternoon and evening. Strong high pressure will build
in from the west over the weekend. A dry cold front will cross the
region Monday night followed by high pressure next Tuesday through


As of 350 AM Friday...As has been the case the past several
mornings, areas of early morning inland fog and low clouds will
dissipate rapidly after sunrise. Will continue to include a slight
chance PoP coast through late morning for isolated shallow
off water shower activity currently observed on radar.

A vigorous upper trough and associated strong surface cold front
will barrel through the region late this afternoon and this
evening. Most of the moisture with this system will be wrung out
coming over the mountains, but strong DPVA, marginal instability
and arrival during peak heating should support scattered shower
and possible thunderstorm activity in the afternoon and evening.
will delay onset of this precipitation until around 20Z based on
trends in the latest models. Will include slight mention of
thunder with strong shear, forecast LIs -1 to -2 and SPC
indicating a general thunder outlook although lapse rates are
weak. Precipitation amounts that occur with this system should be
very light mainly a tenth of an inch or less in most areas.

This should be the last very warm day with highs in the lower 80s
inland as the upper pattern transitions to cooler pattern for much
of the upcoming week.


As of 350 AM Friday...Precipitation threat will be mainly over
east portion after 00Z this evening with any lingering showers
diminishing around midnight. A strong surge of much cooler and
drier air will overspread Eastern NC overnight in the NW post
frontal low. Expect breezy/windy conditions to develop overnight
with temperatures plunging into the 40s inland for lows.


As of 350 AM Friday...Overall the pattern will favor dry
conditions through late next week with cooler more fall like
temperatures expected for much of the period. Another dry and cool
high pressure system is expected to build back over the area
during the weekend. then a dry cold front will cross the area
Monday evening followed by a reinforcing shot of cool/dry air
Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure builds back over the
area from the North.

Saturday through Thursday...High pressure building into the area
from the west will produce a NW flow of much cooler and drier air
across the area through this weekend. A dry cold front is then
forecast to cross the region Monday evening followed by more high
pressure with reinforcing shot of cool/dry air for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Highs will be in the low to mid 60s Saturday and mid
to upper 60s Sunday with lows in the 40s Saturday and Sunday
nights. Highs should moderate into the lower to middle 70s ahead
of the front Monday then cool back into the 60s for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Highs could moderate back into the lower 70s Thursday
as the center of the high moves offshore and return flow sets up.


Short Term /through 06Z Friday/...
As of 1250 AM Friday, similar conditions expected tonight as to
Thursday morning with clear skies and light winds allowing for the
formation of radiational fog. Expect another period of MVFR/IFR
and occasional LIFR fog toward morning as winds decouple. The fog
should dissipate quickly by 13z with VFR conditions to prevail
through the day on Friday. A cold front will cross the area later
in the day with a few widely scattered showers or thunderstorms
although overall moisture with the front will be limited. Any
reductions to ceilings or vsbys would be brief as showers pass
late in the day Friday.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 350 AM Friday...VFR conditions are expected over the area
through early next week as dry high pressure prevails across the
region. Gusty NW winds are expected behind a strong cold front
Friday night through Sat night.


Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 350 AM Friday...Small Craft Advisories have been posted for
the coastal waters and Sounds beginning late today as a strong
cold front moves through the waters this evening.

Latest surface and buoy data early this morning indicate N to NE
winds across the waters, generally 5-15 kt, with 3 to 5 FT seas.

This afternoon winds will back to the west ahead of an advancing
strong cold front 5 to 15 KT highest Southern waters. The strong
cold front will move through the waters late this afternoon and
evening with winds shifting northwest and increasing to 20-30 kt
with a few gusts to 35 KT behind the front. Seas will build to 6-9
FT over the coastal waters.

Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 350 AM Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected to continue through Sunday morning. The NW flow will
gradually diminish to 15 to 20 KT late Saturday and 10 to 15 KT
late Sunday. Seas should drop below 6 FT by Sunday afternoon. The
flow is then forecast to back to West 15 to 20 KT Monday ahead of
a dry cold front, then become Northerly Monday night and Tuesday
behind the cold front. Seas are forecast to be 2 to 4 FT Monday
building to 3 to 5 FT Monday night and Tuesday.


As of 350 AM Friday...A new Coastal Flood Advisory has been
issued for the potential for minor sound side flooding tonight
into Saturday along the Outer Banks as a NW flow of 20 to 30 KT
develops over the Pamlico Sound behind a strong cold front. Water
levels of 1 to 2 feet above normal are expected due to flood
waters moving into the Sound combining with the strong NW flow and
could produce minor flooding in areas adjacent to the Sound.
Conditions should improve Saturday afternoon as winds diminish.


NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103-
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT
     Saturday for NCZ103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ130-131-135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ150-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Sunday
     for AMZ156-158.


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