Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 041454
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1054 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1050 AM FRI...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. MORNING
FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND EXPECT ISOL TO SCT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND LINGERING SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...WITH INCREASING NE FLOW BEHIND IT. FRONTAL FORCING
COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING. TEMPS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER
90S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 650 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SC POP OVERNIGHT...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE
AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS SHOWING
INCREASING LOW STRATUS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW. AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW
70S ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
DURING PERIOD...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP
TIMING AND LOCATION. ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS ISSUANCE WAS TO
INCREASE POPS TO 40% COASTAL SECTIONS SAT NIGHT.

SAT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH A MULTI
LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE WEAK LOW
PRESSURE (THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA?) WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST PRODUCING A CYCLONIC AND MOIST ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW WITH PW
VALUES AOA 1.75" SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. MODEL QPF FORECASTS GENERALLY INDICATE PCPN
LIKELY ALONG COAST EACH PERIOD...WITH COVERAGE MORE SCT INLAND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE POPS MORE
THAN 40% AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS PREVIOUS FCST
WITH GRADUAL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL OFFSHORE HIGH/INLAND TROF
PATTERN. UPPER PATTERN WILL SEE UPPER LOW RETREATING TO THE GULF
COAST AND FILLING AND WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING LEADING TO A ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MEANDER OFF
OF THE COAST THEN EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRY
TO FILTER INTO THE AREA BUT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1050 AM FRI...PRED VFR TODAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR POSSIBLE. WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY...WITH VEERING WINDS BECOMING NE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW INCREASING LOW STRATUS MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH MOIST
LOW LEVEL NNE FLOW. AT THIS TIME THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING
TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH COULD BE IFR.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND IN EARLY MORNING FOG AND
STRATUS ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 650 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW W/NW WINDS 5-10KT AND SEAS
1-2FT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...WITH
INCREASING NE FLOW 10-15KT BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MODERATE NE FLOW 10-20KT.
SEAS 1-2FT EARLY TODAY...BUILDING TO 2-4FT TONIGHT HIGHEST NORTH
OF OCRACOKE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...ADJUSTED FCST WITH BLEND OF GFS AND
ECMWF...INDICATING SLIGHTLY STRONGER NE WINDS SAT-SUN NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM N...BUT STILL MAINLY 10-20 KT. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING A WEAKER
GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS 15 KT OR LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AS THE
COASTAL LOW DEPARTS OR DISSIPATES...BUT FCST CONFIDENCE LOW DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE MODERATE POST FRONTAL FLOW SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE STEEP 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WITH SOME MARGINAL
ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...JME/JBM
AVIATION...JME/JBM/SK/CQD
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD


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