Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
730 FXUS62 KMHX 160619 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 219 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of very weak troughs and fronts will impact Eastern NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore. The high builds into Eastern NC late week through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 215 AM Wed... Key Messages... - Hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms Latest analysis shows high pressure offshore with weak troughing inland. Showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning to blossom over the Gulf Stream early this morning. Expect sct coastal convection to transition inland by late morning and this afternoon as seabreeze develops. Will continue chance pops. Meager shear will keep tstms pulse like with low svr threat. Hot and muggy again with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the lower 100s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM Wed...Expect convection to wane with loss of heating this evening, becoming mostly dry with sct showers and storms offshore. Temps near climo with lows falling into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM Wednesday... Key Messages... -Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected through the long term -Potential for hazardous heat from Thursday through Monday Jet stream and a stream of shortwaves are pinned well to our north with ridging dominating the synoptic flow over the SE through the long term. This brings a typical summertime pattern to the CWA through the long term, with daily pulse t-storms fueled by high instability, low shear, and high PWATs with slow storm motions bringing frequent lightning, brief periods of heavy rain, and strong (sub-severe) wind gusts. Thursday and Friday drier mid and upper levels keep rain chances a bit below climo, but then an increase in moisture for the weekend into early next week brings rain chances to at or above climo. With ridging built over the region, Thursday through Saturday high temps in the mid 90s paired with Tds in the mid to upper 70s brings apparent temperatures between 100-110F. Heat will be a concern Thursday through Monday, and proper precautions should be taken by those who either work outdoors or are planning on spending an extended amount of time outside later this week and weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 215 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with potential for patchy MVFR stratus early this morning and sct convection this afternoon. Sct to bkn mid/high clouds and SSW breeze should limit fog threat this morning, though terminals could see a brief period of MVFR stratus through mid morning. Scattered showers and tstms expected to develop again this afternoon, which could briefly bring sub-VFR conditions to the terminals. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...There will be a chance for some diurnal showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Though the lowest chances to see showers or thunderstorms will be on Thursday and Friday as a relatively drier airmass overspreads ENC. Either way, a low end threat at sub-VFR conditions each afternoon and early evening is expected across ENC into this weekend. If it does rain, then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 215 AM Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Typical summertime pattern will continue through tonight, with SSW winds increasing to 10-20 kt this afternoon and early evening as thermal gradient strengthens. Could see a few gusts approach 25 kt by late afternoon/early evening over the eastern Pamlico Sound, Roanoke/Croatan Sounds but still looks too marginal for SCA. Seas will build to 2-4 ft this evening. Scattered showers and a few storms will likely impact the coastal waters and sounds through mid morning, transitioning inland this afternoon. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...Conditions continue deteriorating Thurs as the thermal trough strengthens further. Winds increase to 15-25 kts with higher gusts across all waters. This will bring a threat for SCA conditions, mainly across the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and the central coastal waters which will have the most favorable orientation for SCA`s given the wind direction. As we get into the weekend winds do ease slightly as ridging to our east weakens, allowing SW`rly winds to fall from 15- 20 kts on Fri to 10-15 kts on Sat and Sun. 2-3 ft seas on Wed along our coastal waters increase to 3-5 ft Thurs night in response to the stronger winds with seas then lowering down to 2-4 ft on Fri and 2-3 ft for the weekend as winds ease. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the period with the lowest chances to see thunderstorms on Thurs/Fri. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RJ AVIATION...CQD/RJ MARINE...CQD/RJ