Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 200947
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
547 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO RIDGE SWWD INTO THE REGION WHILE AN INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE COAST AND A 1014
MB LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL. MEANWHILE A
WEAK UPPER LOW RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BEGIN TO ABSORB THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN RESPONSE WILL LIFT THE SFC LOW NORTH
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. EXPECT THE COASTAL TROUGH TO MOVE
INTO EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WHILE THE SFC
LOW LIFTS NORTH TO OFF THE SC COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

A FEW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ASSOC
WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH AND EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WILL OCCUR
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY AS THE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE INTO A DRIER AIRMASS RIDGING IN FROM THE
NORTH. IN ADDITION...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS ASSOC WITH THE LOW TO
THE SOUTH LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE CRYSTAL COAST. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED EASTERN
SECTIONS WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE WEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL
REACH A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ALONG
THE COAST TONIGHT AND MODELS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOW POSITIONED SE OF CAPE LOOKOUT BY 12Z SUN. SLIGHTLY IMPROVING
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH A STRENGTHENING JET STREAK JUST TO THE
NORTH COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COASTAL TROUGH
AND SFC LOW WILL BRING A DESCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP GRADIENT OF PCPN
ACROSS THE REGION WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WHERE
FORCING WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE AND MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER.
MODELS NOT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS BUT COULD SEE AS
MUCH AS 1/2 TO 1" ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM AROUND CAPE
LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET BUT THEN TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY WEST OF
A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE TO NEW BERN TO COLUMBIA. LOWS EXPECTED IN
THE MID 60S WELL INLAND TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 232 AM SAT...ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE FL/GA AREA
WILL MOVE UP THE COAST AS IT DEEPENS. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL
SKIRT THE COAST...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE CENTERED
OFFSHORE...THIS WILL HELP KEEP HIGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
CONFINED MAINLY TO COASTAL SECTIONS. INSTABILITY LIMITED BUT CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS. PWS JUST BELOW 2 INCHES  SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT QUICKLY DROPS OFF AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. AS SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...UPPER FLOW WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME ZONAL AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH.

THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL PUSH A FRONT AHEAD OF IT THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY MONDAY. NOT AN AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE EVIDENT IN THE
MODELS WITH THIS BOUNDARY...AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LAGS BEHIND
IT...SO WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS
DIFFER A BIT AT THIS TIME PERIOD IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
ECMWF DIGGING A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOWN THE EAST COAST AND
THE GFSENS BEING NOT AS DEEP. THIS DOESNT APPEAR TO AFFECT THE
SURFACE PATTERN AS MODELS AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH ALONG THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LOW POPS
AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...PRED VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT MIXING PREVENTING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS AT PGV WHERE SKIES
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR...DEWPOINT DEPRESSION HAVE BEEN LOW AND
DECOUPLING HAS OCCURRED AT TIMES. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN NC TODAY WITH SFC LOW PRES LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE SE
COAST AND EXPECT VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
EASTERN SECTIONS. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TODAY AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND BUT BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NE JUST OFF THE COAST. COASTAL
SITES WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF RECEIVING PRECIP WHILE PGV
AND ISO COULD VERY WELL REMAIN DRY. IF HEAVIER PRECIP DEVELOPS
COULD SEE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR.
NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM SAT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST THIS
WEEKEND...AND BE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS/VIS SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND LOW
CLOUDS. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NOT TOO MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STAYS
WEST AS IT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY MORNING. MAY
HAVE ISOLATED MVFR CIGS/VIS IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY HAVE SUB VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 530 AM SAT...EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET UNTIL 15Z AS OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. MOST MODELS STILL TOO QUICK TO BRING DOWN WINDS/SEAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. BLENDED HEAVILY WITH THE RUC FOR WINDS WHICH IS MUCH
STRONGER...AND PERHAPS TOO STRONG...THAN ANY OTHER MODEL BETWEEN
12-18Z...BUT SEEMS TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS BETTER. IF
THE RUC DOES VERIFY LATER THIS MORNING AN EXPANSION OF TIME AND
AREA FOR THE SCA WILL BE NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STRONG SFC HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO RIDGE
INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING BRINGING NE FLOW AROUND 10-20
KT WITH MANY AREAS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KT. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15
KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION
ALLOWING GRADIENTS TO WEAKEN SOME. GRADIENTS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN
AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO
JUST OFF CAPE FEAR BY LATE TONIGHT BRINGING WINDS TO 10-20 KT AND
POSSIBLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. SEAS REMAIN TRICKY AS MODELS A
FOOT OR TWO UNDERDONE THIS PAST EVENING AND HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK TO
DISSIPATE. SEAS CURRENTLY 4-6 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO
BELOW SCA CRITERIA SOUTH OF OREGON INLET THIS MORNING AS GRADIENTS
WEAKEN SOME...HOWEVER THE PROLONGED NE FETCH OF WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED UP TO 5-7 FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ALSO INDICATING SEAS REBUILD UP TO 6 FT
SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH GRADIENTS
TIGHTENING NEAR THE LOW LIFTING TOWARD THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM SAT...SURFACE WIND WILL BE VARIABLE SUNDAY MORNING AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS. AM EXPECTING THE LOW PRESSURE TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF
THE WATERS WITH NORTH NORTH WESTERLY FLOW. SPEEDS WILL BE 20 TO 25
KNOTS . IF LOW TRACKS FURTHER WEST...SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIRECTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE LOW TRACKS. SEA HEIGHTS
WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MOST OF THE WATERS
WITH UP TO 8 FEET EXPECTED IN THE OUTER WATERS. AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SUNDAY...WIND SPEED AND SEAS WILL DECREASE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. DIRECTION WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WIND BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS HINTING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ135-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...CGG/SK
MARINE...CGG/SK





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