Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 050207
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1007 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTH WITH A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS CROSSING THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM WED...SHRA HAVE MAINLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING WITH
WITH VERY ISOLD RETURNS NRN COASTAL PLAIN. THINK WILL BE MAINLY
DRY OVERNIGHT WITH POSS ISOLD ACTIVITY NW TIER. COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH S THRU REGION. AS NNE WINDS DEVELOP IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECT
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG TO SPREAD SW OVER THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S INLAND AND
THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /PERHAPS MONTHLY-DAILY
RECORDS FOR TEMPS ALOFT/ AND SURFACE HEATING WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION
WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WAS TEMPTED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP LIKELY OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE
REGION WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE MID 60S
OUTER BANKS AND UPPER 6OS TO LOWER 70S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY
LATE SATURDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THE APPROACHING UPPER CLOSED LOW SUPPLYING A ROUND OR TWO OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.  THE FIRST SFC LOW WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  THIS WILL
YIELD CHC SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH WHERE
THE BEST LIFT IS REALIZED. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER EARLY SATURDAY WITH A SCHC SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRYING RAPIDLY, SO FEEL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
SHOULD DWINDLE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
GIVEN WEST WINDS, CLOUD COVER AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, TEMPERATURE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 ON FRIDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY
ALLOWING SUBSIDENCE SATURDAY. THIS IN ADDITION TO LESS CLOUD
COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO
THE LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE OBX.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP BRIEFLY JUST
AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STALLED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  FEEL THE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, PERHAPS DROPPING A
DEGREE OR TWO MONDAY GIVEN THE FRONT BISECTING EASTERN NC. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TEMPS REALLY RAMP UP BY MID WEEK
AS WARM RETURN FLOW INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID
70S ALONG THE OBX.  LOW TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL,
LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 645 PM WED...VFR THRU THE EVENING WITH SCT CLOUD...ISOLD
CONVECTION SHLD STAY E OF TAF SITES EARLY EVENING. AFTER 06Z WENT
CLOSE TO HRRR MODEL WITH IFR STRATUS SPREADING SW OVER ERN
NC...COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS LOW LVLS WILL BE SATURATED. THIS
STRATUS AND FOG WILL CONT THRU ABOUT 12Z THEN SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY MAINLY VFR THU. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA DEVELOPING OVER REGION LATER WHICH
COULD LEAD TO OCNL SUB VFR.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE OFF AND ON AT
THE TAF SITES WITH VARIABLE WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY SCHC SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA. GIVEN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING WE
COULD SEE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH MONDAY
AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW INCREASES
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN
NC AND BECOME WASHED OUT. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
FROPA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM WED...NO CHANGES WITH NNE WINDS SPREADING S IN WAKE
OF FRONT IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.

PREV DISC...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WAS BECOMING STATIONARY FROM JUST SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET SOUTHWEST TO JUST WEST OF THE CRYSTAL COAST. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SW FLOW IS 10 TO 15 KT WHILE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WINDS
ARE NORTH AROUND 10 KT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 4 FT. EXPECT THE
NORTHERLY FLOW TO SPREAD WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT
BECOME NE 10 TO 15 KT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT THE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER BEHIND
THE FRONT AND EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW 10 KT OR LESS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS/FRONTS WILL CROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS WILL MEAN VARIABLE
WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS AND SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY,
JUST AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT WILL CROSS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING
WASHED OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY.  GIVEN THIS PATTERN,
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...RF/LEP
MARINE...RF/JME/LEP



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.