Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 032033
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT STALLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND TSTMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
AREA AND UPSTREAM AND GOOD COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS
EVENING..THUS CONTINUING LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES. ISOLATED SVR PSBL
WITH WET MICROBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. INITIAL ACTIVITY FIRING ON
STALLED FRONT OVER N AND SEA BREEZE SRN INLAND SECTIONS...WITH
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MAINLY WITH SHRT WV. LATEST MODELS SUPPORT MAIN
THREAT OF ACTIVITY SPREADING TO COAST LATE EVENING...WITH PCPN
DIMINISHING W TO E OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN UPR 70S
COAST AND LOW-MID 70S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS BUT GENERALL
APPEARS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVES AND LOWER LVLS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY DRIER WITH W-SW FLOW AS LOW PRES MOVES OFFSHORE TO N.
KEPT POPS TO 20% FOR ISOLATED AIR MASS/SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGS WARMER THAN TODAY WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...AROUND 90 INLAND AND 85-90 COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...PERSISTENT UPPER TROF OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THE DIFUSE
BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD MID-
LEVEL VORT ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACTING ON DEEP LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE BERMUDA HIGH BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS BACK IN
BEGINNING MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE
LEESIDE TROF ALONG/JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FEW
HOURS...THEN SCT-BKN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
21Z-02Z MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT LCL SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WHERE HEAVIER PCPN
OCCURS. SW WINDS 5-15 MPH PREVAILING MOST OF PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...VFR OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ALL 4 AREA TERMINALS SUNDAY.
BEGINNING MONDAY EXPECTING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS. SURFACE WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...DEVELOPING LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACROSS N OF
AREA TONIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE SAT...PRODUCING TIGHTEN PRES GRAD
ACROSS WATERS. STALLED FRONT OVER NRN WATERS WILL MOVE N EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT S AND 15-20
KT N. SCA CONDITIONS FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT. NWPS PREFERRED FOR SEAS AS IT IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE
ZONES. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSENT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
BERMUDA HIGH RE- ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF OREGON
INLET WILL EXPIRE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY 5-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JBM/HSA
MARINE...JBM/HSA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.