Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 212351
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
751 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will dissipate over the southern
sections tonight. High pressure will extend into the area from
the northwest Friday through the weekend. Hurricane Maria is
expected to track between the Bahamas and Bermuda early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 730 PM Thursday...Adjusted evening forecast to just a
slight chance POP for convective activity over just SW portions
of Onslow and Duplin counties for next 3 hours, then no precip
expected rest of night. Scattered to broken coverage of strong
tstms with isolated large hail reports has pushed south of area
and latest meso models support no additional activity rest of
night. With clear skies, light winds and fairly widespread
precip from late afternoon storms, did increase mention of fog
for mainly western half of area, with some development late
evening but mainly overnight. Adjusted hourly temps and dew
points as temps dropped into lower 70s where heavier rain fell.

/Previous discussion/

As of 225 PM Thursday...Scattered showers and storms have fired
from Greenville to Newport and are expected to drift S or SE
into the evening. Will have high chc/likely pops SW tier thru
aftn then diminish to slight chc this evening as activity
diminishes and pushes to the SE. Shld remain dry over NW
sections. Overnight clouds shld diminish and with light to calm
winds expect patchy fog to develop inland. Lows will range from
mid 60s inland to upr 60s/around 70 beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...High pressure and drier air will build
into the region with mostly sunny skies across the region. A
few of the models show some spotty shra near cst but think these
shld be very isolated and mainly to the SW so will keep fcst
dry. Shld have highs around 85 inland to lower 80s cst.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 PM Thu...High pressure centered over the Great Lakes
will extend down across the region through the period, while we
continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues
regarding the track of Maria. Eastern NC residents and
interested parties should continue to monitor the latest
official forecasts from NHC.

Friday night through Saturday night...Surface high pressure and
upper ridge will continue to build in from the north through
the weekend, as Jose gradually weakens and meanders off the NE
and Mid-Atlantic coast. Pred dry weather expected. Low level
thickness values support above normal temps with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to low
70s.

Sunday through Wednesday...Hurricane Maria is currently
forecast to slowly lift north off the SE coast through mid week.
Eventual track will be determined by several factors including
the strength of the upper ridge and circulation of Jose. Latest
guidance has again slowed down and shifted Maria slightly
eastward, which should limit impacts felt along the coast. It
is still too soon to determine specific impacts for Eastern NC,
which will be very dependent on the track/how close to the coast
it gets. Regardless of the exact track, rough surf and
dangerous rip currents are likely this weekend into next week,
as large long period southeast swells build. Gusty N/NW winds,
minor coastal flooding, and ocean overwash/erosion will be also
possible. Slight chance/low chance rain showers, mainly along
the coast, possible through Wed. Temps through the period, near
to slightly above normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the
mid 60s/low 70s.

Eastern NC residents and interested parties should continue to
monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC on Hurricane
Maria.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Saturday/...VFR expected early this
evening, but clearing skies, light winds and earlier rainfall
expected to produce fog overnight with periods of IFR likely all
TAF sites after 06Z. Conditions improving to VFR by around 13Z
and then persisting rest of day with no convective activity
expected. Calm winds expected overnight, then light/variable
Friday.

Long Term /Fri Night through Tue/...
As of 250 PM Thu...VFR conditions will dominate most of the
period, though some early morning FG/BR and low stratus may
develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across
the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Fri/...
As of 730 PM Thursday...no changes with update. Current buoy
reports showing 4-5 ft seas northern and central waters but
occasionally 6 ft at 13 E of Oregon Inlet, thus will continue
SCA central waters.

/Previous discussion/
As of 225 PM Thursday...Winds will remain light thru the period
as weak trf dissipates to the south and high pres builds in
from the NW. Dir will be pred from the N to NE but variable at
times espcly srn tier. Will cont to have swells over the waters
highest central and N. Wave guidance shows some 6 ft seas
building back across nrn wtrs later tonight so will add them to
SCA. Over srn wtrs seas will be 2 to 4 ft tonight and 3 to 5 ft
Fri.

Long Term /Fri Night through Tue/...
As of 250 PM Thu...High pressure centered over the Great Lakes
will build down into the region through the period, while we
continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Some uncertainty continues
regarding the track of Hurricane Maria late this weekend and
next week, though models continue to slow it down and keep it
slightly further eastward. Mariners and interested parties
should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from
NHC.

N/NE winds 5-15 kt Sat, 10-20 kt Sun then likely increasing to
15-25 kt Mon and Tue as Maria lifts northward. Long period
southeast swell will gradually build through the period, peaking
mid week. Small craft seas likely to redevelop Fri night for
the southern waters. Have capped seas at 15 ft for the central
waters mid next week. Still too soon to determine specific
impacts from Maria, but dangerous seas expected and gusty N/NW
winds will be possible. Rough surf and dangerous rip currents
are likely.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD/BM
MARINE...RF/JBM/CQD



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