Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 231143
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
743 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 730 AM WED...MINOR UPDATE TO CAPTURE PRECIP TRENDS...
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY WITH AN UPPER CUT- OFF LOW
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH STRENGTHENS INLAND AND A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MODELS INDICTING DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TODAY WITH WEAK W/SW FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER THE AIRMASS
REMAINS MOIST WITH PWATS AOA 2". INCREASED INSOLATION WILL
BRINGING GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIFTED INDICES
AROUND -4 TO -6 C AND SBCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...UNIDIRECTIONAL
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR. THE PRIMARY FORCING
MECHANISM FOR STORMS WILL BE THE SEABREEZE FRONT AND PIEDMONT
TROUGH TO THE WEST THOUGH PULSE STORMS COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. BUFKIT SHOWS WEAK MBE
VELOCITY MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KT SUGGESTING SLOW STORM MOTION AND
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING
AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REACH 1415-1420M THIS AFTERNOON
SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPS AROUND 90 INLAND WITH MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...THE SURFACE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE TONIGHT
THOUGH WILL BEGIN TO SEE HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MID WEST. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC BASED
HEATING WITH GREATEST ACTIVITY MAINLY OFFSHORE INVOF THE GULF
STREAM. LIGHT SW FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
EXPECTED LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S AREA
WIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...WEAK UPR RIDGE BREAK DOWNS THU WITH APPROACH OF
SHORT WV TROF AND SFC FRONT FROM THE NW. KEPT 40-60 POPS FOR THU
AFTN WITH HIGHEST POPS NW ASSOC WITH THE SHORT WV...APPROACHING
FRONT AND SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVING INLAND. GOOD CHC POPS ALL AREAS
THU NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS NEAR SRN
TIER LATE. STG STMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS BELT OF ENHANCED WLY WINDS
30-35 KT MOVES INTO THE RGN THU AFTN INTO FRI EVE ALONG WITH
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON FRI THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASHES OUT OVER
SRN TIER. KEPT LOW CHC POPS NW TIER ASOCD WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND FRONT...CONT HIGHER CHCS NEAR THE CST WHERE MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH. FRI NIGHT THUR SAT NIGHT LOOKS DRIER AS UPR TRF DRIFTS E WITH
LIMITED FORCING. KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PCT
RANGE...HIGHEST CST WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHER.

INLAND SFC TROF WILL DEVELOP TO THE W SUN WITH THREAT OF WDLY SCT TO
SCT SHRA AND TSRA WITH BEST CVRG INLAND. ANOTHER UPR TROF AND COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH MON WITH FRONT DRIFTING INTO THE AREA TUE. KEPT
CHC POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WARM DAY EXPECTED TOMORROW ON THU WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 90S INLAND.
TEMPS COOL INTO THE 80S FRI AND SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS AND
DISSIPATES TO THE S. SW FLOW RESUMES IN EARNEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND
CONTG INTO MON WITH TEMPS WARMING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE LWR 90S
INLAND. TEMPS COOL AGAIN INTO THE 80S AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 730 AM WED...WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING
WITH CIGS PREDOMINANTELY IFR/LIFR. STRATUS EXPECTED TO LIFT/BURN
OFF BETWEEN 13-15Z WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT
LIMITING THE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED WED NIGHT WITH SW
LOW LVL FLOW LIMITING THE FOG THREAT HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT SOME
LOWER CIGS AT TIMES. SHRA AND TSRA WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATER
THU AND THU NIGHT AS SFC FRONT APPROACHES AND SLOWLY SAGS SE THROUGH
MOST OF THE AREA. EXPECT SOME PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN
CONVECTION THU AND THU EVE AND THEN MAY SEE STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOP LATER THU NIGHT AS WINDS LIGHTEN UP IN THE WAKE OF FRONT.
MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED FRI THRU SUNDAY OUTSIDE OF ISOLD TO SCT
CONVECTION...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI
NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND ST WITH REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM WED...THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHED FROM THE NORTHWEST. SW WINDS AROUND 5-15 KT THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN. SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT THIS MORNING WILL BUILD
TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT UNDER INCREASED SW FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT EXPECTED ON THU AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. STILL A POSSIBILITY OF MARGINAL SCA CONDS FOR THU
AND THU EVE SPLY ACRS THE OUTER CNTRL COASTAL WATERS BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP SEAS CAPPED AT 5 FT. FRONT WILL SAG SE THRU MOST OF THE
REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH DIMINISHING SW WINDS THU
EVENING THAT WILL BECOME NELY NRN TIER ON FRI. ACROSS SRN TIER FRONT
WL LIKELY STALL IN THE VCNTY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON FRI.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI. AS FRONT DISSIPATES AND OFFSHORE
HIGH BECOMES DOMINANT EXPECT SW FLOW TO RETURN FRI NIGHT AND SAT
WITH SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS LATER SUN AS THE PRES GRDNT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
SHARPENING TROF INLAND AND OFFSHORE HIGH. SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT EARLY
SUN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT LATE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...JAC
AVIATION...JAC/SK
MARINE...JAC/SK






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