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000
FXUS62 KMHX 120156
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
956 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY PRODUCING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AND THEM MOVE OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 955 PM TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS EASTERN NC LIES
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING FRONT WELL TO
THE WEST. HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS AND EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT DUE TO THE EFFECTS FROM AN OPEN MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG NORTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE
UPON THE AREA AFTER 09Z BUT DRYNESS OF THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS
SHOULD PRECLUDE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY.
BECAUSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND
NORMAL NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING NOT EXPECTED ALONG WITH THICKENING
CLOUDS LATE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM TUESDAY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
INCREASE BY MID-MORNING TUESDAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE WANING HOWEVER AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DAMPENS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST. EXPECT A HIGH POP BUT
LOW QPF EVENT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW LIKELY RANGE GIVEN THE FAIRLY QUICK
SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH 60S NEAR
THE COAST. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN WEDNESDAY
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH LI`S BARELY
NEGATIVE FROM THE NAM12 AND PRETTY MUCH NEUTRAL FROM THE GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...SFC LOW PRES WILL PUSH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT WITH THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN NC DURING THE EVENING.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...BUT STRONG CAA WILL ADVECT A MUCH DRIER AND COLDER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION AFTER FROPA WITH NW WINDS 15-25 MPH INLAND
AND 25-30 MPH ON THE BEACHES. THUR WILL BE BRISK AND CHILLY AS
STRONG CAA CONTINUES. 850 MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO AROUND -10 TO -12C
UNDER TROUGH AXIS...AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND 1280M
SUGGESTIVE OF MAX T`S IN THE 40S WITH GUSTY NW WINDS MAKING IT
FEEL LIKE THE 30S. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-40 MPH WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S WILL BRING AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
ACROSS THE AREA THUR.

HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA THUR NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT/CALM AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SETTING UP FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS DROP WELL INTO THE 20S AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WITH UPR 20S/NEAR 30 BEACHES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
FREEZE HEADLINES ON THE OBX THUR NIGHT/FRI MORNING AS THE GROWING
SEASON HAS BEGUN HERE.

MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK INTO THE
50S...WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK TO
NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW/MID 60S. THIS WARMUP LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER AS MED/LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE INDICATE A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT DROPPING INTO E NC SUNDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW LIKELY THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FIELDS
INDICATE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH A RETURN TO TROUGHING IN THE
EAST. THERE MAY BE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WELL WITH AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH DETAILS BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM TUESDAY...EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL BECOME OVERCAST WITH MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE WITH CEILINGS AOA 10000 FT AND ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO NORTH
HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND
SCATTERED THUS I AM NOT CONVINCED IT WILL PRODUCE PREVAILING SUB
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MORE THAN JUST A BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME. WINDS
WILL BE A CONCERN THOUGH AS SW WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE ...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
WED EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA WED EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY SW WINDS DURING THE EVENING SHIFT TO NW AFTER THE
FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CROSSWIND IMPACTS
FOR RUNWAYS AT EWN/PGV. PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THU THROUGH SAT...THOUGH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRES MOVES
OFF THE COAST...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BETTER CHANCES
OF PATCHY FOG LATE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 955 PM TUESDAY...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN STATIC THIS EVENING ON
THE NC COASTAL WATERS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER
THE SOUNDS AND FAR NORTHERN WATERS...AND 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTY
OVER THE WARMER WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT. AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND A DEEP LOW TRACKS ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING AND HAVE
ADDED THE ALBEMARLE SOUND TO THE WARNING. THINK MOST OF THE STRONG
WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE 25 TO 35 KT SW WINDS OVER THE WARMER OUTER CENTRAL WATERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TOMORROW. PER LATEST WAVEWATCH...SEAS
BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 6-9 FEET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM TUE...SWLY 20-30KT WINDS CONTINUE WED EVENING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE WATERS AROUND
03Z-06Z THURS. WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE TO 25-35KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AS STRONG CAA RAMPS UP. GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THURS...THEN WINDS DIMINISH THURS NIGHT
AND FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ELEVATED SEAS
CONTINUE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT...PEAKING IN THE RANGE OF
8-12FT EARLY THU.

MODERATE SW FLOW SAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...GENERALLY
WINDS 10-20KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE S ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH N/NE WINDS INCREASING TO
15-25KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5FT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BEYOND SAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRENGTH OF NW FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AND POSSIBLE LOW PRES LIFTING ALONG THE COAST
SUN NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     AMZ130-135-156-158.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/JME
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...CTC/JME/SK