Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 230854
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARRIVING THIS MORNING.
THE RAIN SHOULD BECOME STEADY BY EARLY AFTERNOON PER LATEST 3KM
HRRR AND RUC MODELS. TEMPERATURES TRICKY WITH COASTAL TROUGH
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WITH 61 DEGREES AT CAPE LOOKOUT BUT 41 IN
MOREHEAD CITY. AS WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RECOVER TO HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE. DEWPOINTS
CURRENTLY IN THE 30S SHOULD RECOVER TO THE UPPER 50S BY AFTERNOON.
POPS INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOWER OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF AS DEWPOINT RECOVERY WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...BY THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTH AS STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR VALUES INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH SRH
HELICITY VALUES UPWARDS OF 600-700 BY 00Z TONIGHT. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INSTABILITY AND MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THIS SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE TORNADO/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER 06Z AS
THE FLOW BECOMES MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...QPF TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GIVEN THE WARM SW WINDS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL VERY LITTLE TONIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WITH LOTS OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND IT WILL MAKE FOR AN
ACTIVE PERIOD INTO THANKSGIVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING HOLD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER COULD
HAMPER HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS.

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH
MID WEEK THEN LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS SHRTWV MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN ON MONDAY UNTIL THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WON`T GET MUCH OF A BREAK AS
STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH HELPING TO FORM A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT IN THE GULF
TUESDAY THAT WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD LIFT. AS
MENTIONED. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW CLOSER IN PHASE
WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH DEEP THE TROUGH AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES THAT
WILL AFFECT THE FCST...ESPECIALLY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND
STRENGTH OF WINDS. MODELS DO BOTH PRODUCE A GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OR RAIN FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
EVENING WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY INLAND TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS SHOWS A CHANCE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF MOISTURE LEFT ACROSS
THE AREA AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR GETS USHERED IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX
OR PERHAPS FLURRIES. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO MORE LIKELY HAVE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE DEPART BEFORE COLDER AIR. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON WHICH
SOLUTION WILL BE RIGHT AT THIS POINT BUT OPTED FOR MORE LIKELY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN HERE. EVEN IF WE DID SEE A FEW FLAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DO NOT EXPECT IT WOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY DRIER AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 AM SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.
WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
INCREASING AND S/SE WINDS BECOMING GUSTY WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
WIDESPREAD. SOME LOCALLY STRONG TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TO VFR
ON MONDAY AFTER THE WARM FRONT AND VIGOROUS SHRTWV PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SUB VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY...IN ADDITION TO RAIN AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. BY THU HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 AM SUNDAY...WILL UPGRADE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND RUNNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. AS A STRONG WARM
FRONT SURGES NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SE/ S WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FEET. BY
TONIGHT...S/SW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 40 KNOTS LIKELY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15 FEET PER
LOCAL NWPS/SWAN MODEL. THESE GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
STRONG.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF STRONG GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GALE CONDITIONS WILL
END BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN
TREACHEROUS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFF THE COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE UP THE COAST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER A BIT ON THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF KEEPING IT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN LIGHTER
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORED PREVIOUS FCST AND GFS FOR KEEPING THE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WHICH MAY ALLOW GALE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. CURRENT FCST HAS GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON
WED IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW. SEAS 10 TO 12 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. CONDITIONS ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE BY THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-137-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...RSB/CTC
MARINE...RSB/CTC





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