Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 271129
AFDMHX

FXUS62 KMHX 270715
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
631 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH
MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 630 AM FRI...AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...HEAVIEST AREAS IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BY MID MORNING WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THE RULE FOR THE DAY UNDER DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE.
NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 208 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOW LEVELS MOISTENING UP SOMEWHAT SO MAY
SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS. WILL GO A LITTLE
HIGHER LOW TEMPERATURES THAN MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD JUST N OF THE
REGION SATURDAY. WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH TEMPS 20+ DEG BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOWER 30S N TO AROUND 40 FAR S. THE HIGH WILL
CONT OVER THE REGION SAT NIGHT WITH COLD LOWS IN THE UPR TEENS TO
LOWER 20S INLAND TO UPR 20S/AROUND 30 CST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF
THE COAST SUNDAY WITH WAA OVER THE REGION...TEMPS WILL MODERATE
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MON. RAIN CHCS WILL GRAD INCREASE SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND PEAK MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
POPS IN CHC RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/MOISTURE. WILL BE
MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MON IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO THE S MON NIGHT
WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING S OVER ERN NC...LOWERED PRECIP CHCS WITH
JUST SLIGHT CHC SRN 2/3RDS OF AREA...LOWS MAINLY UPR 30S TO LOWER
40S. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS WARM FRONT LATE TUE WITH CHC OF
SHRA AS TEMPS CONT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S S.

ERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WED WITH SW WINDS...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC
AND INCREASED TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR SHORE WATER TEMPS
ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER WITH POSS THREAT
OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED NIGHT AND CROSS
THU...WILL REMAIN VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU MIDDAY THU
WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND. SHRA WILL INCREASE THU WITH
FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 601 AM FRI...IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN TAFS THIS MORNING
AS CLOUD DECK THINNED OUT OVER WESTERN SECTIONS. MVFR/VFR OVER
EASTERN TAFS. AM EXPECTING FOG AND CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY
MIDMORNING. HOWEVER...NEW GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST...MAINLY OVER WESTERN TAFS...THROUGH THE DAY

EXITING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN UP AGAIN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...STRONG HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N THRU SAT
NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR THRU
SUNDAY WITH JUST SMALL THREAT OF SOME LOWER CIGS WITH NE FLOW SAT
VEERING TO SE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS MON WITH BETTER CHCS OF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT
WILL STALL TO S MIN NIGHT AND LIFT BACK N AS WARM FRONT TUE WITH
POSS SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES ESPCLY TUE AS MOISTURE INCREASES
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 213 AM FRI...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH EXITING LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL
KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND
SOUNDS. WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRI...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE
WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. GUSTY N/NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED IN 6-7 FOOT RANGE FOR MOST OF COASTAL WATERS.
AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5
FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MON
NIGHT WITH SEAS CONT 3-5 FT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE WATERS LATER TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING LIGHT SSE AND SEAS
MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CGG/RF
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CGG/RF
MARINE...CGG/RF



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