Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 210700
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...LIFTING TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BISECTING THE CWA...DRAPED FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO
OCRACOKE. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TOWARDS THE ALBEMARLE SOUND
TODAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN...AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SE US. AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL HINGE ON
AMT OF HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW. HOT
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
EXPECTED...THOUGH WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL KEEP POPS
AROUND 20-30 PERCENT WITH BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEABREEZE...STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INLAND TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE SHEAR...AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS
AROUND 18C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND...AND 85-90 DEG
ALONG THE COAST. HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...THE WEAK FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH TROUGHING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE SC/CHANCE
POPS OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT. BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...NO SIGNIF CHANGES TO FCST WITH BOUTS OF SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES S THRU THE REGION
AND SHORT WAVES CROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE FOCUSED OVER NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE STRONGEST UPPER FORCING WILL COINCIDE WITH BEST
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL HAVE HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS FOR MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WITH
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES TO THE SW. SEVERE TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE
LIMITED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT
SOME WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN
A THREAT ESPECIALLY WITH THE PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH FRONT SLOW TO CROSS FRI WILL AGAIN BE
HOT WITH 90 TO 95 EXPECTED INLAND AND 85 TO 90 BEACHES. AS NE FLOW
DEVELOPS IN WAKE OF FRONT SAT WILL SEE TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S POSS
APPROACHING 90 FAR S.

SFC FRONT DRIVES SOUTH ALONG THE SE COAST SUNDAY AND STALLS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRIER NW UPPER FLOW AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDING DOWN THE MID ATLC COAST SHUD LEAD
TO REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLES. ATYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW FOR AUGUST WILL LEAD
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL MAX TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY...MAINLY LOW TO MID
80S.

LATER IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A
BUILDING OF THE MIDWEST UPPER RIDGE TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THIS SHUD
LEAD TO A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...HOWEVER WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...AND WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO ATMOSPHERE FROM LAST
NIGHT EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN WITH IFR OR BELOW
CONDITIONS LIKELY...HOWEVER IF HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AND/OR SHOWERS
DO DEVELOP THAT COULD HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU... BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED FRI THRU SAT
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS
OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SE/SW WINDS AROUND 5KT WITH SEAS
2-3FT. WEAK FRONT DRAPED THROUGH THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY...AND LIKELY
LINGER NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION...BEFORE PUSHING NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY WITH SE/SW WINDS
5-10KT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING
TO 5-15KT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS FRI
AFTN THRU SAT MORN. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AS THE
FRONT CROSSES FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SHLD SEE NE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS SAT AFTN...HIGHEST N. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT THRU SAT
MORN THEN MAY SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS OUTER NRN WTRS LATE SAT. NE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS GRDNT TIGHTENS
WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING S OVER THE INLAND AREAS. AS WINDS INCREASE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER NRN WTRS
LATE SUN. SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR MON AS COULD HAVE A TROP SYSTEM WELL
TO THE S PER MDLS. WITH HIGH CONT JUST TO THE W AND POSS LOW TO THE
S WILL CONT TO SEE DECENT NE WINDS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/RF
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD





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