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000
FXUS62 KMHX 271135
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
635 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN
PASS OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATER TODAY. THIS MORNING WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. LIGHT RAIN WAS CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AS
COLD AIR DEEPENS OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT A PERIOD OF VERY LIGHT
SNOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE GROUND IS WARM AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING IN
MOST SPOTS THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OR
IMPACTS FROM THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION. IF A HEAVIER BURST OF SNOW
WERE TO DEVELOP IT COULD DEPOSIT A TRACE AMOUNT ON GRASSY
SURFACES MAINLY VICINITY OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NORTHERN OUTER
BANKS. THERE COULD ALSO BE AN ISOLATED ICY PATCH ON ELEVATED
SURFACES BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MAJOR TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS MORNING.

EXPECTING ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO END BY AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW PEEKS OF THE SUN
ESPECIALLY WESTERN SECTIONS. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND WILL
HELP TO HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DIMINISH
INLAND SETTING THE STAGE FOR COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
REGION WED...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND NLY FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S WED...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S/LOW 30S WED NIGHT.
HIGH PRES SHIFTS OFFSHORE THU AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. GAINING CONFIDENCE WITH A NRN STREAM CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF PRODUCING VERY LIGHT QPF
THU NIGHT WITH LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS BELOW 850 MB. THE FRONT
PUSHES OFFSHORE FRI MORNING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG COASTAL
SECTIONS IN THE MORNING BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. HIGHS FRIDAY AROUND 45-50 DEGREES...AND
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR SAT WITH STRONG CAA...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE NOW FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z ECMWF COMING IN MUCH MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
GFS. MODELS DEPICT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERN GULF REGION EARLY SUN THEN LIFTING NE ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC LATE SUN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN NC MONDAY AS LOW DEEPENS WELL TO THE
NORTH. NOW GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND SUBSEQUENT WARMER
TEMPERATURES NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PTYPE ISSUES AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING MAINLY IN CEILINGS. SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS OCCURRING AND MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS
AT THE KPGV AND KEWN TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST
TO LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AFTER 18Z AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR BY THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TRIGGERING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM TUESDAY...CONTINUE ALL ADVISORIES AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO LOW END
GALES POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS THIS MORNING IN
PROXIMITY TO THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. 8 TO 11 FT SEAS
THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 7 TO 9 FT LATE TODAY AND 6 TO
8 FT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUE...NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY...15-25KT WED AS
LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BACK TO THE W/SW THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THU
NIGHT AND FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS AND STRONG
CAA DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

USED A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH AND LOCAL NWPS AS THE NWPS IS USUALLY
OVERDONE IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT
EXPECTED WED...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO 4-8 FT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT GUSTY NNW FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY COULD STILL SEE
MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUND-SIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER BANKS
ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130-
     131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
     154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JME/CQD
MARINE...JME/CQD