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000
FXUS62 KMHX 230715
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY THEN
MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. A
SECONDARY STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL INTUITED STATES WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFF OF THE
COAST SHORTLY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING OFFSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. ALTHOUGH DECENT
COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY THIS WILL BE
OFFSET BY FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN SLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
THE OUTER BANKS WHERE READINGS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL AID DEEP MIXING WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND DURING THE
EVENING EVENTUALLY DECOUPLING LATE. WITH SKIES REMAINING
CLEAR...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE STRONG AND THIS WILL PRODUCE
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS COULD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY LIGHT FROST IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT THE THREAT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL TO PUT IN
THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 116 PM TUE...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED TOWARD THE
EAST AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES IN FRIDAY. AS SURFACE RIDGE MOVES
OFFSHORE...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY...ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY
WILL BRING A FRONT TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT AN
AWFUL LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS WILL START TO DIVERGE SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT SURGE PUSHES
TOWARD THE COAST. THE CONSISTENT ECMWF BRINGS THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN STALLS IT TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT AND MOVES ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BE THE
START OF A WET PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREFRONTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED
AND NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AFTER 06Z. DRY
AND COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL AID MIXING AND
PRODUCE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SKIES
MAINLY SKC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WINDS GUST 20-25 MPH AS MIXING
INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 120 PM TUE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TAFS
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER
SURGE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...FRONT MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH THE FLOW SHIFTING TO NW 15 TO 25 KT NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND THE
PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY DIMINISH LATTE TODAY TO 10 TO
20 KT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY SURGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WATERS.

LATEST NWPS WAVE FORECAST BUILDS SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 128 PM TUE...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS THURSDAY WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT
BEHIND THE EXITING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
THE COASTAL WATERS TURNING WIND TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
APPROACHING SCA LEVELS. ONLY A TEMPORARY TURN IN THE DIRECTION
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY BEHIND
THIS FRONT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INLAND
OF THE OUTER BANKS TODAY WITH MINIMUM RH 25-30% AND NW WINDS 10-20
MPH. SPS REISSUED PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND
NCFS. ON THURSDAY INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST DUE
TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25% FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL
MUCH LIGHTER AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEUSE RIVER AT
KINSTON FOR MINOR FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG
FIRE WEATHER...JME
HYDROLOGY...JME