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000
FXUS62 KMHX 090559
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1259 AM EST MON DEC 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND CROSS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM SUN...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND IS WEDGING SWD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
STRETCHING TO ABOUT NORTH FL. AN AREA OF LOW PRES ANALYZED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING TO NW/W LATE TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY TO S/SW MONDAY MORNING. BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS
SHIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE EVIDENT ON RADAR...WITH MOST ACTIVITY ACROSS
ONSLOW BAY. 00Z KMHX SOUNDING SHOWING DRYING ABOVE H8 AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONTINUED DRYING DOWN TO AROUND H95 LATE
TONIGHT...SO WE SHOULD NOT SEE MORE THAN PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR
BRIEF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE. WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...10-12C TEMP
DIFFERENCE FROM THE BASE TO THE TOP...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS WITH AREAS
OF FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE TEMPS CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WHICH RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S
WELL INLAND TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUN...FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST EARLY MONDAY
AS SFC LOW MOVES ALONG THE NE COAST. WEDGE SHOULD SLOWLY BREAK
THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ESP
INLAND AREAS...DEPENDENT ON WHEN IT BREAKS...BUT EXPECT SOUTHERN
AREAS TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...WITH INLAND AREAS UP INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE
THROUGH THE DAY MON WITH BEST CHANCES FOR INLAND ZONES. NEXT COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE MON WITH BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIP AHEAD OF IT LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MON
EVENING AND REACH NRN TIER BY DAYBREAK TUE. MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING IN ADVANCE OF AND ALONG FRONT AND EXPECT NUMEROUS SHRA
N TO SCT S LATER MON NIGHT. BULK OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN WARM
SECTOR MON NIGHT WITH LOWS 55 TO 60...SOME CAA POSS FAR N WITH
TEMPS DROPPING TO UPPER 40S. FRONT WILL CONT TO PUSH S THRU REGION
TUE...LOTS OF MOISTURE CONTS OVER THE AREA WITH LIKELY SHRA THRU
THE DAY. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOWER
50S SOUTH.

TUESDAYS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE SE COAST WED. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY WED AFTERNOON
AND MOVE ENE AWAY FROM THE REGION. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED
NIGHT FOR THE COAST. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WED/THURS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S WITH LOWS
BELOW FREEZING MOST AREAS INLAND. THE LOW WILL SHIFT WELL OFFSHORE
THURS WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI...WITH TEMPS
STILL 5-8 F BELOW NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER. MDLS CONT TO DIFFER A
BIT FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES FOR POSS
LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE CST. FOR NOW WENT CLOSE TO HPC
SOLUTION WITH CHC POPS SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MOST SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUN...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND IS WEDGING
SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE STRETCHING
WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS IS MAINTAINING A STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS RTES BRINGING SOLID IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK LOW PRES AREA EAST OF THE OBX WILL LIFT
NORTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO NW/W AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SW/S MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE
THE BACKING OF WINDS EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AS IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO BREAK THE
INVERSION. SLY FLOW DOES BEGIN TO BRING LOW LEVEL WARMING/DRYING
FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT EWN AND OAJ TO SEE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLY
PERIODS OF VFR DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDING AND SREF PROB
MAINTAIN AN INVERSION AND HIGH PROB OF CIGS LESS THAN 1K FT WELL
INLAND SO WILL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS AT PGV AND ISO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...AREA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR MON NIGHT HOWEVER
LOW LVLS WILL BE SATURATED AND WINDS NOT OVERLY STRONG SO SUB VFR
CIGS A GOOD BET AND POSS SOME LOWER VSBYS AS WELL IN FOG AND
DEVELOPING SHRA. GOOD CVRG OF SHRA WILL CONT TUE AS FRONT MOVES TO
THE S WITH MVFR TO OCNL IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY MOST OF THE DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION TUES NIGHT THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH VFR RETURNING IN PC TO MOSTLY CLR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 1 AM MON...SEAS OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS STILL RUNNING
7-8 FEET WHICH IS 2-3 FEET HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 06Z FOR WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE. BASED
ON CURRENT SEAS...HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY TO 11Z. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE.

PREV DISC...STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES
TO WEDGE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A STALLED FRONT
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS. LATEST OBS SHOW N/NWLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO
LESS THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS REMAINING 6-8 FT NORTH OF HATTERAS AND
4-5 FT SOUTH. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING
WINDS TO BACK TO NW/W AOB 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SW/S
AROUND 10-15 KT MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SWAN/WAVEWATCH
CONTINUE TO BE 1-2 FT UNDERDONE WITH SEAS THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
SCA UNTIL 06Z NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED A COUPLE MORE HOURS IF SEAS DON`T BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOON.
HOWEVER WITH WIND CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AND BACKING TO WEST
EXPECT SEAS TO EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW 6 FT LATER TONIGHT...THEN
CONTINUE AROUND 3-5 FT MONDAY. COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUNDS AND WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUN...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW MON
EVENING AND REACH NRN TIER EARLY TUE. EXPECT SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS
TO SHIFT TO THE N LATE ACROSS NRN TIER. WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG
FRONT MAY SLOW SWRD PUSH INIT BUT SHLD CROSS ALL WTRS BY TUE AFTN.
N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED LATE TUE THRU WED MORN WITH
WINDS DIMINISH A BIT WED AFTN AS HIGH BUILDS JUST TO THE N. WEAK
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT STALLED TO THE S LATER WED AND
LIFT NE WELL OFFSHORE WED NIGHT INTO THU. GRDNT WILL TIGHTEN A BIT
ON BACKSIDE OF LOW WITH NRLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS
LATER WED NIGHT THRU THU. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FRI WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT CNTRL AND NRN WTRS TUE IN NRLY FLOW. SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FT WED AS WINDS DIMINISH. SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD
TO 4 TO 6 FT THURSDAY AS N WINDS INCREASE. AS WINDS DIMINISH FRI
SEAS WILL DROP TO 2 TO 3 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/DAG
AVIATION...SK/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF