Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 180753
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
350 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST AND CUT OFF...WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF TRACKING
ACROSS FLORIDA.  BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH HANDLING OF THIS
STILL EXIST WITH THE GFS STILL WANTING TO THROW MORE PRECIP WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD AN ECMWF/NAM/SREF BLEND AND
CARRY SIGNIFICANT POPS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BUT MINIMAL POPS TO THE
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  PRECIP AMOUNTS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH...AND NO THUNDER EXPECTED GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY.  MAV TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE OVERALL SO WILL STAY CLOSE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT TOO FAR
APART ON EXPECTED WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON
SATURDAY THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LOW DRIFTS EVER SO
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MAINTAINED A TIGHT POP GRADIENT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CREST
OF THE APPALACHIANS BUT SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWER ACTION BY
A FEW HOURS. WOULD EXPECT RISING MOTION ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH SINKING MOTION WEST. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS FEATURE.
RIDGING FILLS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FOR SUNDAY AND THEN WEAK
SHORT WAVE ENERGY BUILDS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY PERHAPS
GENERATING A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. NOT A GREAT DEAL
OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM GENERATING RAIN SO KEPT POPS RATHER
LOW. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAISED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
PROGGED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MORE RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY DRY ADVECTION SO WAS ABLE TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  48  69  49 /  20  20  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  48  70  47 /  10  20  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       66  47  70  48 /  10  10   0   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  45  68  45 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$


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