Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 230741
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES RISE SLIGHTLY TODAY SO VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S WILL BE COMMON. HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 100 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS. MIN TEMPERATURES ALSO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NW FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT. UPPER THICKNESS PACKING AND STORM MOTION FAVORS SW
VA/NE TN AGAIN TODAY FOR CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK IMPULSE TO MOVE
THROUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE.  THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON
MONDAY WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.  BY MID
WEEK...THE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION AND WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
LIMITED.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ONCE AGAIN
ALLOWING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.  MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS
FEATURE WITH GFS NOW BRINGING IT IN ON FRIDAY AND THE ECMWF DELAYING
UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND WILL KEEP
POPS AT 20 TO 30 FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             96  73  93  72 /  20  20  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  91  72  90  69 /  30  30  40  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       92  71  90  69 /  30  30  40  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  67  87  65 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/MJB


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