Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 221916
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
316 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tomorrow)...Overall, a brief break in the
precip overnight before rain showers and thunderstorms spread back
in from the south overnight and through tomorrow.

Patches of clear skies will be in place to begin the tonight period
but cloud cover will begin to build back in overnight as the next
wave of moisture surges in from the southwest. This wave of moisture
is associated with a shortwave that will be riding along a stalled
frontal boundary just to our southeast. The shortwave is currently
across Louisiana/Mississippi and will track northeast overnight into
tomorrow along the front. As the shortwave approaches our area
chances for showers and storms increase. The best chances for precip
look to occur across our southern areas and along our eastern
mountains, closer to the frontal boundary and shortwave. The lowest
POPs will be up across the Northern Plateau. Higher rainfall amounts
expected across the higher POP areas, anywhere from 0.50 inches to
0.75 inches is possible. A few tenths of an inch are possible
elsewhere. Due to the location of the boundary, the heaviest precip
will stay off to our south and east so no concerns of any flooding
as of now. Lows overnight will be mild due to the incoming cloud
cover. Temps will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most places,
which is a few degrees above normal. Tomorrow highs will be in the
low to mid 70s due to increased cloud cover and precip, which is a
few degrees below normal.



.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)... Primary weather
maker will be an H5 closed low digging southward down the upper
Mississippi Valley through Wednesday before ejecting eastward
across the Tennessee Valley through Thursday. This will bring
periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday night
through Thursday evening, followed by a fair and warmer day
Friday. But the progressive weather pattern will persist, with a
new storm system moving through the Rockies into the Plains this
weekend, tapping Gulf Moisture and bringing into east TN and
vicinity waves of scattered convection Saturday through Monday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  77  63  75 /  60  50  70  70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  76  61  74 /  40  50  60  80
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  76  61  76 /  20  40  60  80
Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  73  58  73 /  40  50  50  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

SR/GC


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