Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 281901
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
301 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Friday)...Upper level trough and very
humid air mass are expected to produce showers and thunderstorms
especially late this afternoon through just after midnight. The
main area of concern is the northern plateau and SW VA. SPC has
also covered the entire forecast area with a Marginal Risk of
severe thunderstorms through 12Z, with a Slight Risk over SW VA and
Tri-Cities area. One inhibiting factor is the cloud cover, but
enough dynamics are expected to ultimately overcome that
restriction.

.Long Term (Friday night through Thursday)...The good news is the
heat will continue to be tempered back to around normal for late
July and Early August with a little bit of an unsettled pattern. A
broad upper trough will remain over the eastern states Saturday
through about Monday with several ripples of short wave energy
riding through the base of the mean trough. There will be enough
instability and moisture present for medium to high chance pops for
showers and thunderstorms each day through this period. Much of the
remainder of the long term forecast will be a return to what has
been occurring for the past couple weeks across the Southern
Appalachians...temperatures building back above normal with a more
limited chance for a cooling shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  88  72  91 /  60  50  50  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  71  87  72  87 /  70  50  40  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  87  71  89 /  70  50  30  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              70  84  68  85 /  70  40  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Campbell-Claiborne-
     Hancock-Morgan-Scott TN.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for Lee-Russell-Scott-
     Wise.

&&

$$

GC/TH



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