Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 260633
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
233 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTIONS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER NE GA AND MOVING N-NE THROUGH THE MORNING...SO
INITIALLY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL BE NE. THE VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...SHIFTING THE HIGHERST
PRECIP CHANCES TO THE PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY AREAS. WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THESE AREAS...WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE VORT MAX MOVES EAST. A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LOW WITH A
SKINNY CAPE AREA SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HEAVY RAIN FROM
TRAINING CELLS WILL BE A BIGGER THREAT THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING.

THE GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES...WITH MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. VARIOUS
MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
DISTURBANCES...WHICH WILL BE KEY TO PINPOINTING THE AREA AND TIMING
OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF. WITH CONFIDENCE BEING LOW WITH THESE FINER
FEATURES...WILL PAINT THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS WITH A BROAD BRUSH.
LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED EACH DAY...WITH CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. NO
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- KMEM 260623
WRKAFD

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID WEEK SHORT WAVE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION INCHES UP JUST A LITTLE LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE FEATURE ALONG WITH A
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
APPALACHIAN REGION. MAX AND MIN FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST
A LITTLE AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE MAY AND EARLY JUNE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             80  66  82  66 /  80  80  70  50
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  65  81  64 /  70  70  70  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  65  81  65 /  70  70  70  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              82  64  79  62 /  60  70  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

24/99



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