Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 302034
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
234 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...More Heat Thursday...
...Increasing Thunderstorm Threat Friday and Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...A moist and unstable atmosphere will linger across
western Montana and especially southwest Montana into this
evening. A few of the storms may produce local brief heavy rain.
However, with drier conditions near the surface, many areas across
western Montana will likely see more gusty winds than rain.

The air mass is expected to dry and warm on Thursday, supporting a
hot day from Orofino and Grangeville eastward across Western
Montana. There will be some lingering instability and thunderstorm
threat, but limited to mainly Southwest Montana and Lemhi County.

The atmosphere is expected to again moisten and become very
unstable Friday into Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and
evenings. This should translate into additional thunderstorm
development from North-Central Idaho and Lemhi County eastward
across Western Montana. There should be sufficient moisture to
support a few thunderstorm cores with brief heavy rain (more than
what is being observed today). As such, Friday and Saturday will need
to be carefully watched for potential local pockets of flooding
associated with the heavier thunderstorm rain cores. The air mass
will remain quite warm Friday and Saturday, but temperatures
should moderate slightly downward due to additional clouds and
showers.

The moist and unstable atmosphere should linger into Sunday, but
drier air moving into the Northern Rockies should slightly reduce
the the thunderstorm threat.

In the longer term, high pressure and a very warm air mass is
expected to persist into early next week, if not longer. Although the
thunderstorm threat looks reduced, some lingering moisture could
support an ongoing slight chance.


&&

.AVIATION...A moist and unstable atmosphere will support
scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and brief heavy rain into
early this evening across Western Montana and Lemhi County
ID. KBTM and KSMN are the terminals most likely to be impacted,
although activity cannot be ruled out at KMSO and KGPI as well if
storms are able to move off the higher terrain into the valleys.
The atmosphere should stabilize later this evening with only a
few lighter showers lingering over Southwest Montana and Lemhi
County.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...RED FLAG WARNING until 10 PM MDT /9 PM PDT/ this evening Eastern
     Lemhi County...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western
     Lemhi County.

&&

$$

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