Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 212041
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
240 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...A weak disturbance will under cut the ridge tonight
through Monday which will bring a few showers/thunderstorms to
southern Idaho county into southwest Montana. The remainder of the
area will see an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures should
remain above normal for this time of year.

The under level flow will transition to southwesterly on Tuesday
which will allow some moisture to move up into north central Idaho
and northwest Montana. This moisture will cause a few showers and
thunderstorms.

The ridge will re-amplify on Wednesday as a trough digs along the
west coast. A very warm airmass will be ushered into the Northern
Rockies under this amplification. Temperatures will feel more like
summer than fall with a few locations approaching near record
values on Wednesday afternoon.

Looking at the extended, we`re still a ways from a genuine
pattern change. The end of next week will see continued closed
upper low pressure formation in the California/Great Basin area as
a Pacific trough splits. Thursday should be another very warm day
in the northern Rockies with record high temps possible. Some weak
troughing and cooling is possible here Friday, but bulk of
moisture and energy appears to stay farther south. /ss

&&

.AVIATION...

Light winds will continue to dominate at area terminals
throughout today and tonight. The reminants of tropical system
Odile will bring moisture and cloud cover northward over KSMN and
toward KMSO and KBTM later tonight. As this moisture moves over
Lemhi county ID and Silver Bow county MT on Monday, chances for
rain showers with possible lightning increase, but confidence is
low on the exact extent of coverage at this time. Stay alert to
TAFs for more information as confidence increases.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



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