Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 220954
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
354 AM MDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...A few strong thunderstorms this afternoon...
...Strong thunderstorms possible Wednesday...
...Windy and cooler with snow levels around 7000 feet for
Thursday...

.DISCUSSION...Showers are passing from south to north through the
region in association with a shortwave. An area of clearing is
likely behind the shortwave so north central Idaho and west
central/southwest Montana will warm nicely and become unstable
this afternoon. A few of the thunderstorms this afternoon have the
potential to become strong with gusty winds and hail.
Thunderstorms will pass to the east and out of the area through
the evening. The break before showers re-initiate will be short.
There is consistency between model guidance that the next wave
of storms will develop around midnight tonight in Idaho and pass
into western Montana through the early morning hours. These storms
will pass off to the north and east by mid-morning.

The low pressure system will move into the region through the day
on Wednesday and southwesterly flow will strengthen. Temperatures
are anticipated to warm to around 5 degrees above normal helping to
create unstable conditions. There is still fairly high confidence
that the weather pattern on Wednesday will bring strong
thunderstorms with wind, hail, heavy rain, and lightning. The high
amount of available moisture will bring a threat for flash flooding
on burn scars as well. High resolution models are beginning to narrow
the highest potential for strong thunderstorms to be in west
central and northwest Montana Wednesday afternoon.

An intense cold front for July is forecast to pass Wednesday night
through Thursday. This front will cause gusty winds through
Thursday. High elevations including Logan Pass in Glacier NP will
see wind gusts of 60 mph. The cold front will also bring low snow
levels for the middle of summer of around 7000 feet in Glacier NP
so mountain peaks may receive light snow Thursday morning. High
temperatures are going to be well below average as well with 40s
and 50s in the terrain and 60s in many valley locations.

High pressure will begin to move back into the region on Friday so
the forecast has a warming and drying trend through the weekend.
Moisture will begin to move into the region during the beginning
of next week so showers will begin to return to the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving through the region
this morning. The shortwave responsible for these showers will move
from south to north this morning and will arrive to northwest
Montana by late morning. North central Idaho and most of western
Montana will briefly clear and warm after the shortwave passes, so
thunderstorms are forecast to initiate this afternoon. Best
chances for thunderstorms will be in north central Idaho and west
central/southwest Montana. A few of these are expected to become
strong with gusty winds and hail. Most of the storms will be out
of the area by 23/0300z. Model guidance agree that another
shortwave will arrive tonight so showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop overnight.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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