Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 242112

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
212 PM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...A weather disturbance moving in this evening is
expected to bring light snow showers across much of northwest
Montana, west central Montana and central Idaho. For snowfall
amounts we are expecting anywhere from a trace to 2 inches of snow
overnight into Wednesday for most areas. With the exception of
Flathead Lake, where lake enhanced snowfall will be possible along
highway 35 on the east side of Flathead Lake. The most likely
area for lake enhanced snow will be between Finley point and
Bigfork. Periods of light to moderate snowfall will be possible
and anywhere from 1 to 4 inches of snow with locally higher
amounts is expected tonight and into Wednesday.

A moist northwest low level flow will continue Wednesday night
with areas of light snow and light accumulations...mainly north
central Idaho and west central Montana (from Orofino eastward
across the Bitterroots, Missoula and to the Continental Divide.

High pressure should build over the northern Rockies late Thursday
into the weekend supporting a generally dry period with stable
valley inversions. Within the valley inversions, areas of low
stratus and freezing fog should develop. Temperatures should be 10
to 15 degrees below normal in the valleys and near normal over the
mid and higher terrain.

There is a lot of uncertainty with how the models depict a weather
system brushing the area Monday. At this point, we are leaning
slightly towards a relatively weaker system brushing north central
Idaho and western Montana with some scattered light precipitation.

In the far extended...models are actually in better agreement
showing a relatively moist weather pattern setting up over the
northern Rockies mid to end of next week. This could mean a return
to a more prolonged period of of heavier wintry type


.AVIATION...Moisture will continue to increase over western
Montana and north central Idaho tonight into Wednesday. This
should translate into increasing mountain obscurations and
scattered light snow showers.



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