Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 042037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
237 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2015


Clearing skies, a cool air mass in place, and calming winds
overnight will lead to a cold night for valleys of Western
Montana. A few areas may see their coldest lows thus far this
year, including Missoula and the Bitterroot Valley. Given the
sensitivities of those areas and the fact that this may represent
their first significant freeze of the season, we`ve issued a
freeze warning. Those with sensitive plants or above-ground pipes
may want to consider taking precautionary measures.

A warming trend starts tomorrow and lasts into midweek as a ridge
of high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies. Overnight
temperatures will remain chilly, but should gradually moderate
each night. Afternoon highs will reach 5 to 10 degrees above
normal by midweek.

Several weak impulses are expected to move through the upper-level
ridge and brush our area late Wednesday through Friday. Given dry
mid-levels and weak upper-level forcing, we`re not expecting much
outside of a few showers over the higher terrain, and perhaps a
few sprinkles at times in the valleys. Temperatures will cool
slightly, but remain above normal.

Extended forecast models are coming into agreement in showing a
higher-amplitude pattern setting up this weekend, leading to a
very strong ridge of high pressure Saturday, followed by a strong
Pacific trough around Sunday. This would mean very warm
temperatures for the first part of the weekend, followed by a
cooler and wetter period. The details are hazy at this point, but
there is at least a chance of widespread precipitation late next
weekend or soon thereafter, especially over central Idaho.


.AVIATION...Lingering breezy east-northeast winds up to 15 knots will
continue to affect KMSO through the mid evening hours before
steadily decreasing. The Northern Rockies will see pleasant
flying conditions through Monday.


MT...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM MDT Monday Missoula/Bitterroot


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