Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 240227
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1027 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MIDWEEK...MOVING
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE GONE CALM AND TEMPS
HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY AS DEWPOINT TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S.
SO MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. A CLEAR
SKY FOR THE MOST PART...BUT A FEW BANDS OF CIRRUS COULD STREAM IN
FROM TIME TO TIME. A LIGHT SW FLOW AND RISING DEW POINTS SHOULD
PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING LOW ENOUGH FOR FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FRINGE ZONES. LOW TEMPS BELOW NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE
CITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH A MODERATE WSW-SW FLOW
OVER THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH RISING TEMPS ALOFT...WILL ALLOW
FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL...EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT THAT WILL BE EXPOSED TO A FLOW OFF THE COLDER
WATERS. LOOKS LIKE SHOULD MIX UP TO 850MB WHERE THE TEMP IS
FORECAST TO BE 9-10C IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS THEREFORE MOSTLY
IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WITH SPOTTY 80 DEGREE READINGS IN THE
CITY AND WEST OF THE HUDSON. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME. THESE HIGH CLOUDS THEN THICKEN
AND LOWER SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL LOW
TEMPS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN SEA BOARD THROUGH
TUESDAY AS SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE. A LOW AND
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WILL RESULT IN A WEAK WARM FRONT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN UPSTATE NEW YORK. MUCH OF THE LIFT WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION AND REMOVED POPS FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS MAY BE JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS IN PLACE. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND INTO THE
EVENINGS EACH DAY THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH MINIMAL CAPE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. IF
THE HIGH AND RIDGE ARE STRONGER AND REMAIN IN PLACE...THE INLAND
AREAS MAY REMAIN DRY.

AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEAKENS FRIDAY THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION...AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...NOT
HIGHLY CONFIDENT THAT THE RIDGE WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AND KEPT
POPS AT CHANCE.

FINALLY WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH DEW POINTS
RISING...AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE THE INCREASING
LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS DECK ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
POSSIBLY COASTAL CONNECTICUT WITH THE FLOW MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THAN
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD
THROUGH SUN.

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. REMNANT SEABREEZE
FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO A LIGHT SYNOPTIC SW FLOW
BY 06Z...INCREASING AGAIN AFT SUNRISE ON SUN. GUSTS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND THIS WILL CAUSE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER TRUE SEABREEZE DIRECTIONS AT
KJFK/KLGA/KBDR/KGON/KISP CAN BE REALIZED IN THE AFTN.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
.MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE STRATUS AND/OR
FOG LATE AT NIGHT/MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CHC SHRA/TSTM AT
KSWF EACH AFTN. COASTAL SEA BREEZES LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
S-SW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET HAVE SUBSIDED QUICKLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WERE ABOUT A FOOT LOWER THAN FORECAST. OTHERWISE
FORECAST WIND AND SEAS ARE ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE
AT THIS TIME.

WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WEAR OFF.
WSW TO SW WINDS IN GENERAL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME NEAR-
SHORE GUSTS REACHING 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO WITH SCA HOWEVER. SEAS ON THE OCEAN COULD COME CLOSE
TO 5 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY 2 OR 4 FT NOW THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE RIDGE...AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE FORECAST WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE.

WITH DEW POINTS RISING OVER THE WATERS MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY.

THE WIND AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS.
HOWEVER...SOME NEAR SHORE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOONS MAY APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS ARE
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. AT THIS TIME
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS THEN REMAINING
AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


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