Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 311350
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
950 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY...THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST TO A POSITION SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE SATURDAY...THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS
STORM INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.

A 700 HPA SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY OVER N CENTRAL GA...ROUNDING THE
BASE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS LOW AND HAVE
IT TRACK SLOWLY NE AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
CURRENTLY...WILL WORK TO FORM AN INVERTED TROUGH TO THE N-NW OF
THIS LOW BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN HAVING
AN AREA OF ISOLD-SCT -SHRA TRACK WNW FROM OFF THE LI COAST BACK
TOWARDS W/NW THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THIS
AS COVERAGE LIKELY WILL BE SPARSE AND INTENSITY QUITE LIGHT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH.

TEMPS ON TRACK AND HIGHS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN TAKING A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW DOWN
INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN LIFTING IT EAST THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT OPENS TO NEAR/OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE RESULT WILL BE SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN N. THE SPOTTY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...BECOMING MORE
PERIODIC BY AFTERNOON OVER THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS WELL TO THE
NE SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT IN MOST AREAS...THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BEFORE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
COMES IN TO CAUSE ANY MIXING WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION COULD BE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000-1500 FT ACROSS MAINLY
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF S CT...WHERE THE COLD AIR MIGHT ARRIVE IN
TIME TO CAUSE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW TO MIX IN...IF NOT BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW...BEFORE ENDING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS EVEN
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FROM THIS SYSTEM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
SHOULD GUSTS TO UP TO 30-35 MPH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND 25-30 MPH OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AS THE
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PULLS AWAY THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OVER MAINLY S CT/LONG ISLAND
AND POSSIBLY NYC/FAR E PORTIONS OF NE NJ SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW
FORECASTING WINDS TO REMAIN JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A WIND ADVISORY WAS ULTIMATELY
NEEDED FOR AT LEAST E SUFFOLK COUNTY AND SE CT. THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW - BUT BASED
ON LATEST GUIDANCE IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...EXPECT VALUES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

A BLEND OF ECS/MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES AND
A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 925 HPA INLAND...PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD
BE AROUND 5 TO MAYBE 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR LOWS...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SUNDAY...AND
THE RESULTING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUSTAIN WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DAYTIME BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY...PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. SOME
SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH CRITERIA BASED ON SUSTAINED WINDS. ASIDE FROM
THIS...PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS. WIND CHILLS AT DAYBREAK WILL BE AROUND 30 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ON MONDAY AND MOVES
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. DRY BOTH DAYS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES...BUT IS MOISTURE
STARVED. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF THE CITY. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS...AND IS PROGGED TO PASS THROUGH
SOMETIME THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. POPS EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
     PASSING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES SUNDAY EVENING.

WINDS...N LESS THAN 10 KT...BECOMING ENE NEAR 10 KT BY 15Z...THEN
NE INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AFT 06Z SAT ALONG
THE COAST AND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS...VFR CIGS 4 THSD- 5 THSD FT. MVFR CIGS FORECAST MAINLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITHIN 2 HOURS OF FORECAST TIME.

LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST MAINLY 18Z - 21Z.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN AND MVFR CIGS
WITHIN 2 HOURS EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. NE-N WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 20-25G30-35KT.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD KEEP WINDS TO
AROUND 15 KT OR LESS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE S AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SW...THIS SHOULD BRING GUSTS TO 25-30
KT TO ALL WATERS TONIGHT...SO HAVE CONTINUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THEN. THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AND A SERIES OF STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOWS RESULT IN A
CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS.
THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER ALL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 40-45
KT SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THESE GUSTS INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
AS A RESULT TO 5-9 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 3-5 FT ON
THE EASTERN SOUND BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

N-NW GALES CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN
WINDS START TO DIMINISH AT NIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING...ALL WATERS
SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE GUSTS...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE OCEAN AND EASTERN WATERS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO REACH ALL OF THE WATERS WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD  A RETURN WSW FLOW FOR
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS INTO
TONIGHT. A MORE STEADY/LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER S/E
AREAS. FOR NOW FORECASTING TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND A TENTH AN INCH OVER ORANGE
COUNTY TO A HALF AND INCH TO MAYBE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER
SE CT/E SUFFOLK COUNTY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION OF 24+HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACT IS
ANTICIPATED FROM THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.

NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MALOIT
NEAR TERM...MALOIT/PW
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...JC/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MALOIT/PW






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