Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 310049
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
849 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes tonight. High pressure then builds down
from southeastern Canada from Tuesday through Thursday, then
retreats to the northeast Thursday night. A cold front approaches
from the west on Friday, then moves across the region early this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Updated forecast to lower pops for many areas, but increased them
this evening over some of the NW areas as a slow moving cold
front and outflow boundaries interact with sufficient SBCAPE to
produce showers and scattered thunderstorms. Convection should
diminish as the evening progress with the loss of instability.

Other concern is the coverage and density of fog. Visibilities
have actually improved over the past hour over eastern long island
where fog had reduced the visibility to locally as low as a
quarter mile. Wouldn`t be surprised to see the visibility reduced
again as the evening progresses with fairly light winds, moist low
levels, and moisture pooling along the weakening cold front. Might
need to eventually need to issue an SPS to address patchy dense
fog over the eastern zones at some point this evening.

Mos blend for overnight lows with temps in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
It appears that weak surface front stalls and weakens nearby
Tuesday. Mid and upper level trough passes to the north across New
England during the day. Drier air will filter in from the northwest
as high pressure builds from canada.

In general, expect dry conditions with sunshine during the day, and
partly cloudy to mostly clear skies at night.

Daytime highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s, per MOS.

Lows Tuesday night should range from the 50s across the interior
to the mid 60s in and around NYC under better radiational cooling
conditions.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at Atlantic
facing beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure on Wednesday results in a sunny day. With an onshore
flow and limited mixing depth, have gone close to superblend for
high temps as MET mos looked too warm and MAV mos looked too cool.
High pressure shifts farther east on Thursday but should still keep
all rain associated with the remnants of Bonnie well to our south.
Winds and mixing depth will be similar to Wednesday`s, but maybe a
little more in the way of cloud cover. High temp forecast is
therefore slightly cooler than Wednesday.

A slow-moving cold front then brings low chances of showers to
roughly the western half of the cwa. Better overall chances then
arrive Friday into Friday night as the front moves through, but pops
are capped at chance for now. Timing of the frontal passage is still
in question, but kept a slight chance of showers on Saturday.
Saturday could however end up being entirely dry across the area.
Enough CAPE is progged in the area to mention thunder Friday through
Saturday. Friday`s high temps look to be at or a couple degrees
below normal, with Saturday being a few degrees higher than normal.

Upper troughing over the region begins on Sunday and lasts into
Monday. This will help a broad surface low shift into the area
during this period. Whether or not a secondary surface low forms and
passes nearby is uncertain, but the parent low and associated fronts
present chances of rain/showers/thunderstorms during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will approach late tonight moving across early
Tuesday.

Mainly VFR for city terminals and to the NW with IFR and below to
the east. Until cold front moves through early Tuesday Morning,
eastern terminals will likely stay MVFR or below. The duration of
IFR and below remains uncertain tonight as well as whether or not
this moves farther westward late tonight bringing a return to IFR
for city and nearby terminals. Guidance is generally hinting that
this will return...but again the extent remains in question. As
winds shift to the sw aft midnight climatology indicates improvement
at city terminals with IFR or lower conds e...so tried to indicate
this idea into the forecast.

Showers/tstms have been weakening as they move into the area...so
have maintained the vcsh at western terminals this eve. Some
showers from remnants of Bonnie may impact KGON and possibly KISP
late this eve and overnight.

moderate to high confidence in wind forecast. sea breeze develops
at the coast tue aftn.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: occasional gusts up to 20 kt through rest of
eve push. timing of IFR may be several hours off this eve.

KLGA TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.

KEWR TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.

KTEB TAF Comments: timing of seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on
tue.

KHPN TAF Comments: MVFR to IFR possible this eve. Timing of
seabreeze may be +/- an hour or so on tue.

KISP TAF Comments: End of IFR conds may be +/- 1-2 hours tue
morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z Wednesday through Saturday...
.Tuesday Night-Wednesday Night...VFR.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR. E winds G15-20kt.
.Thursday Night...Chance of showers with brief MVFR conditions.
.Friday-Saturday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with brief
MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Fog over the eastern waters will be dense. Dense fog advisory
continues through the entire night.

As a weak front approaches and stalls over the waters through
Tuesday, expect southerly winds to remain fairly light. Winds
turn to the north Tuesday night as high pressure builds.

For now, it appears that there will not be a significant enough
swell to bring seas to SCA levels through Tuesday night.

Sub-sca conditions are expected Wednesday with winds less than 20 kt
and ocean seas 3 to 4 ft. An easterly wind increases on Thursday,
building seas up to 5 ft on the ocean along with some gusts up to 25
kt possible. Winds then become lighter Thursday night and Friday,
however remain onshore. A lingering swell could therefore prolong 5
ft seas into this period. Otherwise, sub-sca conds are likely
through Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread significant rainfall is not expected through Tuesday
night. A few heavier showers and possible thunderstorms could result
in local urban and poor drainage flooding this evening.

Thereafter, no widespread significant rainfall is expected
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ330-340-345-
     350.

&&

$$



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