Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 201527
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1127 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN STRATOCU FIELD IS FILLING IN QUICKLY THIS AM EXCEPT ACROSS
COASTAL SE CT AND ERN LONG ISLAND. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME HEATING.
MAX TEMP FCST LOOKS OK PER 12Z RAOB.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES TODAY. THIS RISK COULD BECOME HIGH LATE IN THE DAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SE WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD STRATUS SHOULD RETURN TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS NWP GUIDANCE IS NOT DEPICTING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AS IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE APPROACHING DIGGING AND
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.

MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE
EAST...HOWEVER SOME OF THE RAINFALL COULD GET INTO THE LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT REGION. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SUN COULD COME OUT FOR A
PERIOD SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND IF THE LOW
REMAINS FURTHER EAST.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. SO EXPECT POPS TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NO RAIN IS FORECAST
DURING THIS TIME AS DRYING CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES TO A POSITION
EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAINLY VFR UNTIL EARLY EVENING...THOUGH COULD SEE AN OCCASIONAL
MVFR CEILING THROUGH 16Z AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BEST CHANCE OF THIS
IS AT KEWR...AND IS ONLY PLACE THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS...AS
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AT OTHER SITES IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY
LOWER TO IFR IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE
OR LIGHT RAIN REDUCING VSBY TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO ADD VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT THIS TIME.

SSE FLOW AROUND 10-15 KT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT ALL BUT KTEB
AND KSWF...WHERE WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW 10 KT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL BUT KSWF/KJFK/KHPN. AT KJFK
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PUT IN TAFS.

WINDS BACK TO THE SE-E AT UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT...WITH INLAND
TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SUNDAY...MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN MORNING...IMPROVE TO
VFR. ISOLATED SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW PROB OF TSTM.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...-SHRA ENDING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
.MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS TODAY. SEAS SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY
AS SE WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT...WITH OCEAN SEAS APPROACHING SCA LEVELS ON SUNDAY...
AND REACHING SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON TUE. THEN
INCREASING E WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...GC
AVIATION...MALOIT/NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/BC/GC
HYDROLOGY...BC






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