Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 050758
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING UP
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...AND
MOVE ACROSS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD RETURN
ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND...AND PATCHY FOG MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY...WITH SOME FAIR WX CU AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON VIA WEAK THERMAL TROUGHING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S...WARMEST IN NYC
METRO AND THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP
SOUTH COASTS CLOSER TO 80.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRANQUIL AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF NYC METRO WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
INCREASING MOISTURE.

UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WHILE A CLOSED LOW
ALOFT MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WITH A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY
OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS AGAIN IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN UP TO A WEAK TROUGH AS IT GETS CLOSER MON
NIGHT. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO THIS TROUGH...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD TSTM FROM SW-
NE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS
FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST TUE AFTERNOON VIA DAYTIME
SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND CONTINUED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WITH PW INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES...PRECIP EFFICIENCY
(PW TIMES 1000-500 MB MEAN RH) TO 1.6 INCHES...AND MBE VECTORS
UNDER 5 KT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WIND FIELDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ALOFT SO ORGANIZED SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME
PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY CLEARS THE EASTERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SE THE FRONT MOVES BEFORE
STALLING. WILL CAP POPS AT HIGH END CHC WEDS/WEDS NIGHT...BUT THIS
MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROUGHLY THE SAME FROPA TIME AND INCREASING MOISTURE. ENOUGH
CAPE IS PRESENT FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH CONTINUED
HIGH PW...FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING FLOW...AND THE COLD FRONT
BECOMING MORE ALIGNED WITH THIS STEERING FLOW ALOFT...THERE IS
AGAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF CELLS STORMS THAT
COULD LEAD TO LEAST MINOR URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE
COLD FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF US DURING THURSDAY AND WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BRINGS US A CHANCE OF RAIN
SOME TIME FRO THU INTO FRI MORNING. WILL GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR MOST OF THIS PERIOD...THEN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN
LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

PATCHY FOG...WITH MVFR OR IFR VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF
BY 12Z. NYC METRO THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

THEN...FEW CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR.

LIGHT OR CALM WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W/NW AROUND 12Z
AT 4 TO 8 KTS. THEN...EXPECT LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP. WINDS LIGHTEN TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.SUN NIGHT...SUB VFR POSSIBLE IN FOG.
.MON...VFR WITH S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SUB VFR IN PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT
POSSIBLE.
.TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WRN AREAS. S WINDS.
.TUE NIGHT...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
.WED...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF TSTMS. SW FLOW.
.THU...MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS. FLOW BECOMING NE.

&&

.MARINE...
OCEAN SEAS NOW APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY
FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS...ALSO POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TUE THROUGH THU...MAINLY
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT FROM THE
DURING MID WEEK. TUE AND WED BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AS PW INCREASES TO
NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH GENERALLY WEAK STEERING FLOW.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...PW
MARINE...GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN


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